IGD: Padres vs Astros (3 Apr 08)
Thu, Apr 3, 2008
by Geoff Young
Padres (2-1) vs Astros (1-2)
Randy Wolf vs Shawn Chacon
12:35 p.m. PT
Channel 4SD
AM 1090, FM 105.7, XM 186
MLB, B-R
If Adrian Gonzalez catches Hunter Pence’s line drive, the game is over before Lance Berkman ever steps to the plate. If Jose Cruz Jr. doesn’t draw a two-out walk, Pence never bats. If Jose Cruz Sr. doesn’t have a kid, Cruz Jr. never bats.
On the bright side, at least now people can jump back on the “Trevor Hoffman is done” bandwagon. I was almost starting to miss them.
. . .
Randy Wolf makes his Padres debut in an afternoon affair. Assuming the rain holds off, I’ll be at this one as well as the Storm opener tonight.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
April 3, 2008 at 7:58 am
I hope that no one is hitting the panic button yet after one blown save.
April 3, 2008 at 7:58 am
Yeah, I’m really not that pissed about last nite. Sure, those are the kinds of games that could come back to haunt us in September. But the team played really well and it was great to see them bounce back from a 3-run deficit in two innings. I’m loving our offense.
April 3, 2008 at 8:03 am
What I love is that two days ago when Trevor looked unhittable practically, everyone cheered and was talking about how “Trevor’s back.” Now he blows a save and its the same yahoo’s saying he’s done and can’t do it anymore.
Fastball is faster (I know Mud has been saying this during the telecasts and Bard seems to have confirmed this in the U-T) and the changeup is just as filthy as it always has been.
RELAX!
April 3, 2008 at 8:07 am
I just mentioned this over at GLB, but I have an observatation from last nite that I’d like to share:
According to Leitner (I didn’t see but heard innings 2 - 7), Maddux’s change wasn’t dropping as per usual. Combined with 6 HRs, isn’t it completely possible that there were some environmental factors yesterday that would have negated some of the bite on Trevor’s change? I don’t know if there’s any way to measure this mid-game, but I would think that if you notice these conditions, you’ll want to bring it a guy like Ledezma or Gonzalez who just throws heat (assuming Bell can’t go because of back-to-back appearances).
April 3, 2008 at 8:08 am
Not panicking on Trevor yet. Lots of bad luck went into last night’s ninth. Cruz was quoted in the U-T as saying ball four was borderline and he was lucky he didn’t swing. Adrian almost caught the 3rd out, etc.
But…every time #51 comes into a game from here on out, it’s going to feel like even more of a high-wire act than it has for the last few seasons. That, and reports on Bell’s decreased performance, make me nervous about the ‘pen. I’ll be watching the A’s closely over the next two months - if they perform poorly, maybe Billy Beane will put Huston Street on the market…
April 3, 2008 at 8:09 am
Guys I know its not going to be popular, but how long does it have to go on before its acceptable to be worried when Hoffman comes in?
He had an ERA over 4 in the 2nd half last year and he’s at an age where the cliff could come at any time…..plus its not like BB and the organization can baby his arm any more then they already do.
April 3, 2008 at 8:15 am
Let me just say I’m very happy with what I’ve seen so far this season. Pitching (besides last night) is good/should be good and hitting is fantastic. That’s my “3 games in” assesment. Last night sucked though. Man, as soon as that ball went over the fence I turned off the tube and went to bed. I’m heading to Vegas tonight in a worse mood…….good luck for the day game to help my spirits. Later!!!
April 3, 2008 at 8:24 am
Re:6 I’ve been worried everytime Hoffy has came in for the last 2 seasons but he has proved my wrong 99% of the time. If he drops another 2 saves this month then ill start to worry until then I’ll chalk last night up to bad luck.
April 3, 2008 at 8:28 am
If Trevor challenges Cruz and Cruz takes him deep, I can shrug it off. But, walking Cruz to spark a rally, hurts.
April 3, 2008 at 8:28 am
Have an extra ticket to today’s game. Anyone interested in a little liquid sunshine? Ticket in section next to bullpen in left field boxes, row 3. Would love some company. Drop me an email and I will contact you.
cbbsvino@yahoo.com
April 3, 2008 at 8:30 am
4: Anything is possible, but if you can get Bud to make pitching changes based on environmental conditions, I’ll eat my Padres cap.
April 3, 2008 at 8:31 am
6: For the first half of the season. If it lasts through the All Star break, it will be acceptable to be worried about Hoffman in the second half.
On a more serious note, it’s important to keep in mind how small a sample size is involved when talking about closers in general and about Hoffman in particular (because as you point out he is “babied” in terms of IP).
For example, I was looking at his game log for last year, and it appears to me the ERA for the second half boils down to pretty much just two appearances which lasted 1 1/3 IP and where he gave up 4 earned runs, and game 163, of course, where he gave up 3 in just 1/3 IP.
When you only pitch in 57 1/3 over the entire season, a couple of poor outings like that will distort things like ERA. There is concern expressed by some that his K rate is dropping, which means more balls in play, but all in all he was still highly effective last year despite the highly visible late season failure.
I do think you need to give the guy the benefit of the doubt for quite a while before you start worrying there is a pattern of ineffectiveness developing.
Berkman is a great hitter and just the night before looked hopeless against Trevor. I believe Leitner said he was hitless against him before the HR. That’s baseball. You win some, you lose some.
April 3, 2008 at 8:46 am
Look, I love Trevor, but last night hurt badly. He has now blown 3 out of his last 4 saves, granted spread over two seasons. Maybe it is just bad luck, but I don’t think that is it. I was watching his FB velocity; he got 88 once, more typically around 84. His old means of doing things were pinpoint accuracy with 88-ish FB and the change lurking. Good location, plus 88, plus the change lurking around made the FB work. It seems to me when it drops below 85, the hitters can look change but still react to the FB. So now he has to throw the change for a strike. Before, hitters would be swinging to protect against the FB, only to the change drop away. Now, hitters are much better at letting the change go.
I would love nothing more for him to shake this off and silence the critics, but if that FB cannot reliably get to 88, it is gong to hurt.
April 3, 2008 at 9:14 am
FYI - The Oregonian had a good write up today on Randy Ready and the 2008 Portland Beavers. Including that Matt Antonelli will be the Beavers lead off guy. Though the paper is really pushing Chase Headly as the guy to watch and get out to PGE to see him before he gets called up to San Diego.
April 3, 2008 at 9:27 am
13: Come on. Talk about cherry picking and using arbitrary cutoff points. Blown 3 of his last 4, eh? Why not 3 of his last 15, or 9 of his last 51, or 14 of his last 102? Look, it’s not difficult to make a closer look bad, but the fact is he’s been highly effective for a long time and a brief run of poor performance does not a decline make.
Did you see Berkman K on Tuesday night on two straight changeups? Berkman is one of the best hitters in baseball; over the past 5 seasons he has the 8th best OPS+ in all of baseball and he flailed miserably at those changeups! Give the guy a break for the first month of the season at least.
April 3, 2008 at 9:36 am
Trevor’s main problem is that his stuff is so underwhelming at this point that if he doesn’t have good control (like last night) batters just tee off on him. Sometimes he gets lucky and the balls find gloves (and he was almost lucky last night) and sometimes he throws his BP fastballs and they get knocked out of the park.
Speaking of attendance (like we were yesterday), did you see that the Orioles only got 10,000 fans last night against the Rays? Talk about taking a franchise and running it into the ground.
April 3, 2008 at 9:39 am
10: Good luck. I tried last night to get someone to come to today’s game with Geoff, Didi, and myself. Nobody was interested in sitting field level with dregs like us, apparently.
April 3, 2008 at 9:40 am
Re: 16 10,000 aint bad for a minor leauge baseball game on a Weds night!
ooohhh Low blow!
April 3, 2008 at 9:41 am
Re: 17 and !0 I would love to go but working stiffs like me just can’t take the time off. weather looks to be clearing up a bit downtown though.
April 3, 2008 at 9:49 am
#16: FWIW, last night’s crowd was the smallest in Petco Park history. Average attendance after three dates:
2007: 37,286
2008: 28,168
For now, I remain more concerned about this than about Trevor’s blip.
April 3, 2008 at 9:59 am
I’m not fully sure why everyone is worried about the crowd its 3 games in against a team that has little to no draw in SD all during the week. If the Dodger games this weekend dont get 35,000 + at each then you maybe have a point.
I also dont think low crowds this year will affect next years payroll any because I dont see the Padres signing any big name players or resigning Giles, Maddux or Hoffy at the end of the year which will save them more than $20 mil in payroll.
If the padres continue to win, more people will come out during the summer months, if they become a .500 type team the attendance will stay the same, and if they drop below .500 well they are in trouble.
April 3, 2008 at 10:00 am
Re: 13 - Trevor has not been consistantly over 85 for a couple of years now. He has found a way to adapt. If the scout quoted in the paper today is right, then I feel a lot better about Trevor. If he can consistantly hit 87+ on the FB (something he has not done for sometime), then we are golden. It gives him a much larger margin of error.
If, however, he is still living in the 81-84 range, then his margin for error is VERY low and location/control is really all he has.
April 3, 2008 at 10:08 am
#21: The problem, as I see it, is that the Padres apparently need a high-profile opponent to induce folks to come see a game. Sorry, but that will always bug the heck out of me.
April 3, 2008 at 10:17 am
20:
I’m going to blame the weather and the Astros for it.
On mlb.com they have the following Padre articles:
• Hoffman unable to shut door on Astros
• Hoffman picks up where he left off
I thought that’s a little harsh on Trevor but then I realized the 2nd article talked about his save in the first game, not his blowing the save in the 2nd.
April 3, 2008 at 10:46 am
I was at the ball park last night. It was a pretty small crowd. Given the fact that it was cold, it’s the Astros, it was a school night and just barely a start to the season, I was expecting a small turnout. (Although I was surprised at how small.) Sure made it easy to get food at the concession stands, though.
April 3, 2008 at 10:50 am
After three games, the ever-ironic and unexpected ways of baseball have us worried about the bullpen and happy about the offense.
April 3, 2008 at 11:04 am
13/Jay: fwiw, PITCHf/x had his average FB speed at 87 last night. The homer to Berkman was measured at 85.8, his second slowest fb of the night.
April 3, 2008 at 11:20 am
Doesn’t Trevor blow a couple every April anyway?
April 3, 2008 at 11:24 am
26: michael that was LOL, Dude. Thanks.
April 3, 2008 at 11:32 am
28: If I’m reading BR correctly, he blew 2 in April 07, none in 06, 2 in 05, 1 in 04, didn’t pitch in 03, none in 02, 1 in 01, and 1 in 00.
I’ll stop now becasue this is probably really boring.
April 3, 2008 at 11:42 am
28:
Last year he blew back to back games in April — both against the Dodgers I think? The worst part about last night was that it was against the 7-8-9 batters of the order, I could understand if he came in against the leadoff hitter and blew it since they probably score half the time when the leadoff hitter is the first batter of the inning, but you don’t expect a blown save when the first three hitters are Wigginton, Towles and Jose Cruz. That’s certainly not good. Oh well, one game can’t make that much of a difference, can it?
April 3, 2008 at 11:50 am
30: I think that’s actually a little encouraging. He doesn’t really blow one a month for his career, so April is generally a tough month for Trevor.
I’m with Geoff; he’s actually been looking a fair amount better than he did last year velocity-wise, and the pitch that hurt him was never thrown in an alternate universe where Adrian gets the ball that his his glove…
April 3, 2008 at 11:56 am
Re: 31 - He got 7 and 8 out…righ? 9 got on a very close pitch…Don’t think that part should worry you.
April 3, 2008 at 12:01 pm
Geoff, I understand you’re concerned about the attendance, for good reason….BUT I don’t think comparing a Mon/Tues/Wed vs Houston to a Fri/Sat/Sun against the Rockies to open the season is going to tell you anything.
If they don’t average 38k this weekend then I’ll be concerned, they always draw better on weekends and after school is out
Mark
April 3, 2008 at 12:43 pm
Well I hope this is a preview of the Sunday lineup for this year…..P Mac hitting 5th though?
Hairston looking like a 30 HR guy at a min
April 3, 2008 at 12:45 pm
Hairston keeps hitting. Lead-off double
April 3, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Kooooooooooz
April 3, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Dong!
April 3, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Kooouuuuuz!
April 3, 2008 at 12:49 pm
Gonzo looks like he put one to the wall again. A lot of LOUD outs for him this year.
April 3, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Anyone watching the game? On gameday it looks like Kouz crushed that thing to one of the deepest parts of the park again.
April 3, 2008 at 12:51 pm
Hang em and bang em - attaboy Kouz!
April 3, 2008 at 12:52 pm
How cool is it to have the game on while at work?
April 3, 2008 at 12:58 pm
Wolf is dealing……this is going to work out a lot better then the Wells/Hensley garbage from last year.
Iguchi looks like he is still asleep
April 3, 2008 at 12:59 pm
43: Not much better. The best is when you live in California and there’s a day game on the East Coast.
42: Stu, did I read the other day that you’re in Georgia?
April 3, 2008 at 1:00 pm
44: Looks like Wolf got squeezed a bit to Cruz, but no damage.
April 3, 2008 at 1:03 pm
45 - yup, Atlanta. Got married last fall and we decided to make a go of it here rather than in San Diego.
And yes, I have MLB.tv playing while at the office.
April 3, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Kindly please my a commenter knowing the score kindly relay in comments to those poor saps who must work to feed their families.
No W2 internet at Burger King.
Tank you very much.
April 3, 2008 at 1:05 pm
41. Watching the game, Kouz hammered it, over the 401 sign in left center….
But, it probably dies at the warning track if it was a night game.
April 3, 2008 at 1:08 pm
47: If you’re looking for a fellow transplant to catch the Padre-Braves games with in May, shoot me an email.
April 3, 2008 at 1:12 pm
Terrible at-bat by Adrian.
April 3, 2008 at 1:12 pm
After 8 straight balls, Adrian attacks a pitch out of the strike zone and weakly grounds out.
April 3, 2008 at 1:13 pm
I think you’d like to see AGon swing at a better pitch there after back to back walks and a 1-0 count. Doesn’t look like it was a strike and definitely wasn’t a pitch he could drive (low and outside).
April 3, 2008 at 1:13 pm
Damn, Hombre. Looks like you expanded the zone, a bad habit you were supposed to have worked on this winter.
April 3, 2008 at 1:18 pm
49: Same spot as the pre-season game vs the Angels?
April 3, 2008 at 1:19 pm
48: 2-0 Pads are winning on a KK 2 run shot. Its the top of the 3rd
April 3, 2008 at 1:21 pm
55. More towards center than the pre-season shot… but close.
April 3, 2008 at 1:26 pm
Lo is giving Wolf a hard time here.
April 3, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Lo tags what looks like a hanging curve and doubles in Pence. 2-1 Pads.
April 3, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I like when Vasgersian just makes up stats. He just said that Berkman has more power from the left side and a higher average from the right side. It’s not that hard to jump on BR.com and check it out, is it?
April 3, 2008 at 1:31 pm
60: I could be wrong, but I don’t think they look any stats up. Don’t they normally have hired hands that just had them stats for them to talk about?
April 3, 2008 at 1:32 pm
60: Thats the usual split, but ya Berkman isnt very good from the right side.
April 3, 2008 at 1:32 pm
I know it’s early… but how good does Kouz look so far?
Is it too optimistic to expect .290 with 25 and 80?
April 3, 2008 at 1:38 pm
63: If the team can hit like it has been, I think its possible he drives in more than 80. But I don’t think it is optimistic at all. Everyone outside of SD would disagree though.
April 3, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Is there anything more frustrating then seeing the next batter after a walk swing at the first pitch and do nothing with it? Granted that pitch was right down the middle but it just looks terrible.
61: Shouldn’t they look up stats at some point? Or do you think they just make up stuff for everyone?
April 3, 2008 at 1:45 pm
65: He said stat guys look up stuff for them
April 3, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Richard, I think you tagged exactly what should be EXPECTED from him this season. Anything less than that would be disappointing.
April 3, 2008 at 1:49 pm
65: If they do in fact have staticians on the payroll, then I expect that those people confirm facts before presenting them to the broadcasters. And yes, that includes looking things up. I seriously doubt any broadcasters have time to look up anything in the booth.
April 3, 2008 at 1:51 pm
Re: 68 - They do have stat runners in the booth. In college, I was offered a job with Fox to be a stat runner before/during games…providing stats, facts, and other misc. stuff that gets fed to game watchers…pay was in the mid-20’s…but that was back in the mid-90’s.
April 3, 2008 at 1:52 pm
66: Well, since he was so wrong about Berkman (and about a 5 second look at Berkman’s stats would tell you what kind of hitter he is) you wonder if he’s just making stuff up. And since he’s making stuff up for Berkman, it follows that he might be making up stuff for everyone. Plus, don’t they have laptops in front of them? When they show them in the booth there’s computer in front of them. Maybe they are just there for show though.
April 3, 2008 at 1:53 pm
50 - will do. Can’t wait to see what the pitching matchups will be for that series.
April 3, 2008 at 1:55 pm
well, that was a waste - four pitch walk to the pitcher?!?
April 3, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Actually, I know what’s more frustrating then popping out on the first pitch after a walk — how about walking the pitcher on 4 straight?
April 3, 2008 at 1:58 pm
Even with the dumb walk, Wolf is looking very good tonight! 81 pitches through five innings - 56 strikes and only 25 balls.
April 3, 2008 at 2:02 pm
I like what I’ve seen from Wolf thus far. Works very fast, throws strikes (56 out of 81 pitches through 5), seems to pitch to contact and let the defense work, but gets a few Ks as well. Could be a little more efficient with pitch count, but that’s my only gripe.
April 3, 2008 at 2:05 pm
My best friend is sitting first row, right behind home plate so you see him on every pitch. I sent him a text, telling him to sit up higher, since all you could see was his receding hairline. Am I bitter? Hell yes.
April 3, 2008 at 2:05 pm
“Watching” on gamecast but it seems Wolf is dealing right now against a pretty good offensive lineup.
April 3, 2008 at 2:12 pm
Holy Moly! Berkman steals second? I thought Wolf would at least do a better job of holding runners than our 1-3 starters.
April 3, 2008 at 2:15 pm
Good to see Wolf is fitting into the Padres plan of ignoring baserunners. Oddly, he’s never really given up steals before so maybe it really is just Bard and Barrett and not the pitchers. In 213 games and 1283 innings before today, he’s only given up 34 steals, had 22 caught and picked off 7. That doesn’t seem like very much (CY gave up 41 without anyone being caught last season).
April 3, 2008 at 2:17 pm
Dropped foul ball by Wolf on a little pop-up halfway down the first base line. You could tell right away that it was going to be trouble as AGon never really went for it. Hopefully it won’t matter.
April 3, 2008 at 2:18 pm
God Adrian must be slowest 25 year old with 2 good legs I’ve ever seen
April 3, 2008 at 2:18 pm
did anyone watch that? If so, please provide some commentary on that
April 3, 2008 at 2:18 pm
According to Bill James pitchers have little to do with caught stealing rates-it’s all about the catchers
April 3, 2008 at 2:19 pm
six solid innings from Wolf
April 3, 2008 at 2:20 pm
Wow if this is the end of the line for wolf he had himself a pretty good day for his padres opener.
April 3, 2008 at 2:20 pm
79: I think everyone was suprised by Berkman running. Did Bard even attempt a throw?
April 3, 2008 at 2:22 pm
82 - baserunner got in the way and spooked Wolf just enough so that he dropped it. No harm done, Tejada hit a weak grounder to Gooch two pitches later.
Wolf pitch count: 103 through 6 IP, 71 strikes, 32 balls
April 3, 2008 at 2:23 pm
82:
It was a pop-up about halfway up the line on first. AGon didn’t break on the ball and never really went for, it look like he never saw it. Wolf was waiting for AGon to call him off and so he was late getting to it. He missed it (it ticked off his glove) but it was a foul ball (barely).
April 3, 2008 at 2:26 pm
Gerut…take a pitch or two!!!
April 3, 2008 at 2:28 pm
83: James may be right in general, but I think any attentive Padres fan would tell you that CY and Maddux, who makes no bones about not holding runners, have a lot to do with the caught stealing rate when they’re on the mound.
April 3, 2008 at 2:33 pm
83,90: We should easily be able to figure it out after the season by looking at Wolf since he’s never given up steals before so. Of course, if he does have a typical Padre starting pitcher steals against, it could be the fact that Black and Balsley instruct the pitchers to ignore the runners and concentrate on the batters, not just that Bard and Barrett can’t throw (since Bard could throw with Cleveland).
Who didn’t see that coming after the walk to Jose Cruz?
April 3, 2008 at 2:33 pm
Walks… darn it. I have had it with the walks in late innings.
Bullpen… stop nibbling and throw strikes!
April 3, 2008 at 2:34 pm
Bleh there goes the lead…. sorry Mr Wolf
April 3, 2008 at 2:40 pm
83: This is probably blasphemy here but Bill James is wrong.
April 3, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Woohoo way to rally back!
April 3, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Good thing they didn’t replace Cruz in CF with Bourn, I think Bourn would have caught that. That’s why I was in favor of signing Corey Patterson — sure he can’t hit but he can cover some serious ground in CF which is pretty damn important.
April 3, 2008 at 2:41 pm
NICE!
April 3, 2008 at 2:43 pm
Hairston is definitely making his case to continue to start even when Edmonds comes back.
April 3, 2008 at 2:44 pm
If they keep a one or two run lead going into the 9th do they use Bell to close it out because Trevor has worked back to back nights or do they use Trevor again to get him back out there as quick as possible after the blown save last night?
April 3, 2008 at 2:44 pm
Rough game for Adrian so far. 1st GIDP of the year. Someone noted he doesnt do that much tough.
April 3, 2008 at 2:45 pm
98: Only if P-Mac makes an even stronger case to continue to start after Edmonds comes back (and maybe not even then).
April 3, 2008 at 2:45 pm
99: Back to back nights and then a day game? I doubt Hoffman closes it.
April 3, 2008 at 2:46 pm
RE: 99 nm/m I have my answer.
April 3, 2008 at 2:46 pm
99: I’d guess it depends on how Trevor is feeling. If he’s ready to go, I’d have to believe Bud goes to him.
April 3, 2008 at 2:49 pm
How about a bottom of the 8th rally, get Hairston a chance at the cycle… and make it a non-save situation.
April 3, 2008 at 2:50 pm
With no one warming up behind Bell, does Bell go two innings today?
April 3, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Hoffman won’t pitch. Bell 50/50, my guess.
April 3, 2008 at 2:54 pm
Sweet defense on the 3rd out - pitchers’ fielding practice pays off!
April 3, 2008 at 2:58 pm
Hell’s Bells.
April 3, 2008 at 2:58 pm
TREVOR TIME!
April 3, 2008 at 2:59 pm
Ok…. start holding your breath now…
It’s Trevor Time
(gulp)
April 3, 2008 at 2:59 pm
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Kjh9lQXLWk
April 3, 2008 at 3:00 pm
Hoffman’s pitching? Wow. This will be interesting.