Why Can’t the Padres Capture Our Imagination (and Money)?

I’m working on my Padres preview for Hardball Times, and one question that confounds me is this: Why won’t San Diego get behind the Padres? I don’t have an answer, but I’d love to hear some theories.

While you’re thinking about that, here’s a nice table for your viewing pleasure:

Padres Winning Percentage and Home Attendance, 2004 – 2007
Year W-L Pct Att/G
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
2004 87-75 .537 37,244
2005 82-80 .506 35,429
2006 88-74 .543 32,837
2007 89-74 .546 34,445

This marks the first time the Padres have enjoyed more than two consecutive winning seasons. They also reached the playoffs two straight years (and came within one strike of making it three straight) for the first time in franchise history.

I get that it’s popular to bash the club for not being aggressive in the free-agent market (only somewhat warranted, IMO, given the nature of said market) or the amateur draft (a problem that I agree needs to be addressed), but we literally are looking at unprecedented success from this organization and yet, attendance has fallen by 7.5% since the Padres moved downtown.

To be fair, the Padres saw tremendous growth on moving into Petco Park, but still. Here’s that table again, with their final year at Qualcomm thrown in for good measure:

Padres Winning Percentage and Home Attendance, 2003 – 2007
Year W-L Pct Att/G
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.
2003 64-98 .395 25,063
2004 87-75 .537 37,244
2005 82-80 .506 35,429
2006 88-74 .543 32,837
2007 89-74 .546 34,445

You see, perhaps, why teams are anxious to build new stadiums? A club coming off a 98-loss season can reap tremendous rewards (especially if taxpayers help flip the bill, which is another issue altogether). Meanwhile, a club that wins 82-89 games a year struggles to keep bodies in seats.

Why is that?

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124 Responses »

  1. 50: I had started to write something similar to that last paragraph. I expect that some fans (no idea how to quantify it) simply reached their threshold before 2004. They’re not likely to give the Padres another chance unless a really gripping story emerges, and I’m not at all sure how the Padres would go about delivering that. It would almost have to be a great PR campaign or a totally unexpected run of luck, because they’re not going to start taking big risks with the management of the team.

    If they’re going to take a calm, rational, risk-averse approach to baseball operations (which is certainly their right, and the correct way to do business 85% of the time), they’ll just have to live with not being able to stir the passions of every possible baseball fan in the San Diego area.

  2. #48: Thanks, this is helpful. Believe it or not, I’m not even playing devil’s advocate with my question. I honestly see an organization on the rise and wonder why others don’t see the same thing. Your conclusion is very telling:

    Yes these teams are much better but until they can make a push and score against front line pitchers in the playoffs the seasons will continue to feel the exact same when they end.

    I don’t share this opinion, but I definitely sense that a lot of folks around town do.

    #50: Good points. I guess it just seems weird to me that the city seemed more willing to embrace a fancy new ballpark than an improved ballclub. As a fan of the sport (more than the “experience”), I don’t really get that. Like, I understand it intellectually, but it doesn’t connect with me on a gut level.

  3. The good thing about the Padres is that the core of the team (or at least the most irreplaceable parts) are still pretty young. Peavy is 27, Young 29, Bell 30, Meredith 25, Thatcher 26 (of the question marks Wolf is still only 31 Hensley 28, Prior 26). Trevor and Maddux are both old but they shouldn’t be too hard to replace. On offense, Kouz and AGon are both 26, Greene and Hairston are 28, and Headley is 24. Bard is 30 and a catcher so he might age quickly while Giles, Edmonds and Iguchi are all easily replaceable (Antonelli will fill one of those slots). This team doesn’t have the upside potential of the Diamondbacks, Rockies or Dodgers but not every young player pans out (look at the Padres prospects except for Jake over the years).

  4. 53: “look at the Padres prospects except for Jake over the years”

    What did I ever do to you to be asked to do something as painful as that?

  5. Estes drills CoJo. Absolutely drills him.

    Good for Estes. If you’re not going to make the team, at least do something useful.

  6. I think that some people have unrealistic assumptions for the Padres. Every team but one finishes the season unhappy (to varying degrees as obviously the Rockies were less unhappy then the Padres). I admit that it was incredibly frustrating to see the Cardinals win the World Series in 2006 and the Rockies make it last year — especially when many people thought the Padres were better then both teams (I thought losing 3 of 4 to the crappy Cardinals was a lower point in team history then Trevor blowing saves in 2 of the last 3 games last season). If it’s going to take a World Series appearance for the Padres to get accepted then it might not happen. This season there are by my count 9 serious playoff contenders in the NL (COL, ARI, LA, SD, MIL, CHI, NYM, PHL. ATL). That’s a lot of teams to finish ahead of.

  7. 45 … Thanks for the heads-up, Stephen … can you summarize what he says (ie. why he’s starting off an article with a reference to today’s Ducksnorts entry)?

  8. 55 … CoJo = Conor Jackson?

    http://mlb.mlb.com/news/boxscore.jsp?gid=2008_03_17_sdnmlb_arimlb_1

    … yup, I s’pose so … and Iguchi gets the retaliatory HBP?

  9. We should start on pool on when the Padres release Estes. After seeing that he gave up a home run to Trot Nixon, I have tonight!

  10. As a reasonably recent transplant to SD (4 years) from orange county I really feel that San Diego is a good sports town (as far as anywhere in so. california). In fact the main reason that I got into the padres was that it really felt like the city was a lot more excited about the team then I had really seen before.

    Many people in the comments want to bring up the angles as an example of a successful sports franchise. I can say from experience that nobody loved the angels before they won the world series. I had gone to angels games my whole life and do not remember them ever being all that well attended. (This is even after the Edison/Disney make over of the Big A) But once they won the world series you began even seeing angles caps in LA county, which was an odd experience to me.

    In some sense I think that the advantage that LA/OC have over SD is just sheer population. There are sooooooo many people there that if you can just interest a very small percentage at any given time you can sell out an event. I really do think that a larger percentage of the SD population are padres fans, it is just a much smaller group of people.

  11. 56: It doesn’t do any good to tell the people who aren’t buying tickets that they’re being unrealistic (or for Sandy Alderson to tell them they’re being irrational).

    Mac is better than Windows and always has been. Windows has 90%+ market share. It’s an irrational result but Apple still has to deal with it.

    If the Padres want those extra seats filled, they’ll have to appeal to the potential fans who aren’t coming. If their answer is going to be “we’re better than we were, and we’re playing it smart, and we’re going to build the best organization possible under certain restraints,” then they’re not going to get those fans. They have to decide how much payoff there is from pursuing them. If it’s not worth it, don’t go after them, but at the same time don’t complain that people who aren’t serious baseball fans aren’t attending baseball games.

  12. 58: Iguchi was hit first. CoJo was hit in the third or fourth. When he got hit, Leitner just said, “Ouch”. Apparently he got it good.

  13. 61: Not to derail this conversation, but I would ask you to qualify your statement about Macs vs. PCs. Macs are better at certain things. PCs are better at others. That kind of blanket statement is troublesome.

    But your overall point stands. People have opinions about things that are typically not very nuanced. So while we can all appreciate that the team has played well recently (especially agains the backdrop of their past), there are a wide variety of people who will see that the Padres have never won a WS and just assume that they suck.

  14. I’ll throw in my two cents on the subject of baseball fans in San Diego. As a kid, I figured everyone in San Diego was born and raised here just like me. As I grew older, I learned that many San Diegans are ‘transplants’ from very, very freezing cold cities. I’ve met tons of people here from Chicago. If you’re from Chicago and you move to San Diego to get away from the cold, there’s a good chance you’re probably not a huge sports fan. If I grew up with the Bulls, Bears, Blackhawks, Cubs, White Sox, etc, I’d never leave that town. And if I had to leave, I’d still support my hometown teams. Many of the die-hard sport fans out here still support their hometown teams from back East.

    To get to my point, many of the San Diego ‘transplants’ are here in many cases because getting away from the cold weather was a bigger priority than their sports team. Not exactly the kind of people who are going to come out and support a sports team, regardless of who is on it. While Jake Peavy is a superstar, he only pitches every five days. In order to convert casual fans into die-hards, I believe the Padres will need another everyday player, in his prime and capable of batting 3rd or 4th in the lineup, to go along with Adrian Gonzalez. The casual fan isn’t going to become a die-hard Padre fan because we get Jim Edmonds and Mike Piazza at the twilight of their careers. We lack a recognizable superstar in the everyday lineup and that’s the bottom line.

  15. I also have another theory. Has anyone besides me noticed that the old school brown and yellow Padre gear is worn a lot more by fans at Padre games than the blue and sand or whatever color that is? My personal favorite is the ’84 jersey. If the Padres go back to the ‘old school’ colors, they would be a much more popular team nation wide. If you’re a casual fan, it’s hard to tell the difference between them and the Brewers and about 5 other teams in the league.

    Bring back the brown and yellow!

  16. 61: The unrealistic portion of the potential fanbase is the people that may be saying “The Padres haven’t won the World Series, therefore they suck and I’m not going.” I don’t know that there are a lot of people that think like that although there is at least one poster today that seems to have that view. Obviously the Padres aren’t going to say outright before the season that they aren’t going to win World Series (even if it’s probably accurate).

    Even the things that we agree on (like the drafting of Porcello over Schmidt) wouldn’t affect attendance the slightest (short-term at least). Things such as shortening the fences to increase scoring might help them draw short-term but might make them a worse team which will lower it long-term. Same thing with increasing team speed — I’m sure they could get Juan Pierre for nothing and play him everyday in CF and have him leadoff but the negatives would probably outweigh the potential attendance game.

  17. 63: No, Macs are better, period. More reliable, almost exponentially. Far faster and more efficient. More resistant to viruses. More intuitive (easier to use). And I don’t even use one, but they’re plainly the best computer around.

    What they’re not suited for (deployment in an office) is largely because Apple decided not to waste money pursuing a market they couldn’t get. The fact that many software companies don’t develop products for them in no way detracts from their superiority as a platform.

    What’s troubling is conflating the reasons why someone might not attend a Padre game as a lack of thought. A casual fan, by definition, is not following the team that closely. They’re far less likely to express a strong opinion like “they suck” than they are to express “meh.” If the Padres want those fans, they have to do something to grab them.

    Of course it could be that there are enough dedicated fans to fill Petco every night, so the attraction of casual fans is less important. But if that’s true and the Padres still aren’t reaching them, then some of the reasons stated by others in this thread probably pertain.

  18. 66: I agree that they shouldn’t tinker with the composition of the team or the fences in order to entice casual fans. That would be crazy. They’re already going to carry 12 pitchers, the last thing they need is to waste a roster spot on the designated Eric Owens Dirty Jersey Player. What they’d need to do, if they want to draw those fans, is find a cost-effective way to break through the apathy.

    As I said before, that could be totally wrong. Maybe they’re getting 15,000 casual fans a night and there aren’t many more to be had. On the larger point of “Why can’t the Padres….”, I still think it’s simple. They’ve got a fairly attractive team playing in a fairly attractive venue that has performed fairly well and their attendance is fairly good. I don’t see why its surprising that attendance hasn’t jumped to great when none of the contributing factors has, either.

  19. 67: We’ll agree to disagree. As someone who works for a software company, I have strong opinions on this matter and we’ll leave it at that.

    I think it’s generally interesting to talk about the attendance issue at PETCO. The larger question is whether or not there are realistic actions the team could take to remedy this concern. I say realistic because no matter how much people revile the club and the ownership, they’re never going to sign a big-name FA. It’s just not going to happen.

    So, are there viable solutions? Would better amateur drafts translate to more attendance? How do we evern judge what is “better”? Who’s to say Porcello blows out his arm next year and that Schmidt goes on to be a solid #3? Sure, there seem to be better decisions the club could have made. But there are tons of people drafted every year that never sniff the big leagues, whether they’re drafted first-round or not. Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t Burroughs seen to be a good selection at the time?

    Does anyone have any “realistic” methods for fixing the attendance problem? Can it even be fixed?

  20. In order to convert casual fans into die-hards, I believe the Padres will need another everyday player, in his prime and capable of batting 3rd or 4th in the lineup, to go along with Adrian Gonzalez. The casual fan isn’t going to become a die-hard Padre fan because we get Jim Edmonds and Mike Piazza at the twilight of their careers. We lack a recognizable superstar in the everyday lineup and that’s the bottom line.

    I hate to keep kicking this horse but a post just like this has appeared a bunch of times today. With the stadium playing the way it has the Padres aren’t going to have a player like this. When Ryan Howard becomes of free agent in a few years, if the Padres could sign him, he wouldn’t lead the league in HRs anymore. Therefore, he wouldn’t be a recognized superstar anymore. It wouldn’t make him any less of a player obviously, the public perception of him would be lessened. The only superstars the Petco Padres are ever going to have is pitchers — unless they draft the next Albert Pujols (by the way, 19 picks before the Cardinals drafted him, the Padres 3B Brian Ward from NC State. D’oh! Shows how lucky you have to get in the draft).

  21. 38 … wikipedia has been fixed … that’s the beauty of wikipedia!

  22. 70.

    You keep bringing up HR’s as though they are the end all and be all of scoring and superstardom. They are not. Need I remind you of Tony Gwynn?

  23. #63, 67: Yeah, let’s drop the Mac vs PC thing. I have very strong opinions on this as well. If you see me on the street, ask me about it and you’ll get a very animated response. Seriously, you might as well ask me if I think Kerry Robinson is better than Tony Gwynn.

    #69: This isn’t necessarily realistic, but winning the World Series would help a lot. See David M’s comment in #60, and read Vince Gennaro’s Diamond Dollars.

  24. 58 … Gerut with a HR this afternoon …

  25. 69a: I thought you were working in baseball now? But regardless, I work in software as well, with a product that is entirely oriented towards Windows, and I’ll always pick the faster, more efficient, more robust system if someone asks me which is better. Then I’ll sit down at my XP and wait for the next Unexpected Error.

    69b: Or is it really even a problem? I’m not worried about less than sell-out attendance because the Padres are getting increased revenue from other sources, and because I don’t see any reason to believe increased revenue would lead to increased investment in the product.

    70: IIRC, a lot of scouts were high on Pujols’ bat, but he was considered a bad body. Some team asked him to catch at one tryout, because he looked like a catcher to them. The draft would only have a tangential effect on attendance, because the majority of fans aren’t following the minors. But if they were drafting better, they could afford to do more things at the major league level.

  26. 73: It’s always a possibility. I think we would have had a semi-legitimate shot against the BoSox last year had we made it into the playoffs. We had the pitching that eluded the Rockies.

  27. #70: We also got Peavy in that draft. 8)

    #72: Yeah, but how many Gwynns are there? I count one. Most of todays superstars hit home runs, and as long as that’s true, the Padres will be at a disadvantage. Between their unforgiving home park and the fact that their games end after the east coast (ESPN, NY Times, etc.) has gone to bed, it’s going to be extremely difficult for the Padres to produce a star offensive player. Or to be more accurate, it’s going to be difficult for them to produce a player who is recognized as a star. I keep harping on this example, but Adrian Gonzalez is likely to remain underrated as long as he plays here.

  28. 75: Sadly, I do not work in baseball….yet. I just started an internship with a Minor League club and I’m hoping it proves to be a viable career path. Till then, still gotta pay the bills.

    I would mostly agree with what you say when you suggest that there really might not be a problem. Given all of the factors, which you listed in 68, the are probably getting the most out of what they’ve got.

  29. 75: I typed that before I saw GY start to go Berserker on the computer topic.

  30. A lot of people have brought up the Angels as a model for the Padres and I think that’s the most logical goal. They might not be able to get near the 3.5m mark like the Angels have done the past 4 seasons but there is no reason the Padres can’t beat 3 million. The Angels turn-around in attendance has been pretty miraculous since Arte Moreno bought the team in 2003. From 1996-2002 (the Padres were awful after the Tom Werner fire-sale years, 1996 was the first good season) the Angels only outdrew the Padres in 2002 (their World Series year when they won 99 games). Overall, those seven years the Padres outdrew the Angels by 11%. Since 2003, the Angels have outdrawn the Padres by 23%. The greater population in the Angels area helps, but that can’t be the only reason.

  31. 77: Excellent point, and though it likely qualifies as “beating a dead horse,” Adrian would be a STUD if he played east of the Mississippi.

  32. 31 … I’m with Pat on this … I’m not sure there is a “problem” … attendance seems healthy … prices seem high enough that revenue seems healthy … how are the Padres doing with media revenue (ie. TV and radio rights fees)? Are their ratings healthy?

    GY … are you trying to suggest that the “problem” is that the Padres are in a Catch-22-kind-of-rut? ie. to get better attendance they need a high-priced star … but to be able to afford a high-priced star, they need better attendance? … perhaps … and so while looking for the right opportunity to break out of this cycle, they are doing what TW describes as a conservative approach that is the best thing to do (for a business) 85% of the time …

    Going for a WS championship is risky … with the possibility of commensurate rewards … but it truly does feel like current ownership/management has chosen to not go that route … and I’m actually OK with that … they seem to be creating a solid foundation … one which will make “going for WS championship” a bit less risky in the near future … and I’m enjoying watching that evolve/develop …

  33. KRS1,

    I don’t think that HRs equal scoring but that is the general belief. The Padres had an above average offense last season but you wouldn’t know it if you just watched espn. You said above that you found the Padres to be a boring team at home — yet they were the 2nd in the NL in road HRs and 4th in scoring. Put the Phillies or Brewers offense in Petco and they wouldn’t be as exciting.

    I brought up the Pujols thing more as a joke plus I was curious about who was drafted around him. It shows how lucky you have to get in the draft as there have been plenty of players drafted in lower rounds that every team but one could play “what if” with. Usually the only “guaranteed” pick is the #1 overall selection — the Padres had the chance twice in the past four years to either have the first pick or take the consensus #1 player and probably squandered both (althought passing on the #1 talent in 1990 really helped out the Braves).

  34. 77 … re: only one Gwynn … an example of a comparable non-HR-hitting “star” today might be Ichiro! … especially when you qualify it with “a player who is recognized as a star”.

    80 … re: Angles … I think the Angels kept their appearance of being a team with the upside of winning a WS by signing Vladdy … he belongs on the list in comment #27 … when he was a FA, I hoped he’d be the guy that the Padres “broke the bank” for.

    58 … Rusch with 2 good innings today

  35. 58 … and Crabbe with 3 hits today …

  36. 70 … IF the Padres were to sign a Ryan Howard-type player in free agency, he would already be a recognizable superstar so people would be coming out to see someone they already know to be great. He wouldn’t have to lead the league in homers. On the other hand, it will be hard for someone like Adrian Gonzalez to ever become that superstar because he plays at Petco and isn’t going to lead the league in HR’s. If he played in Philly, he would be hitting 40 bombs easily.

    BUT realistically, they are never going to sign a player of that caliber in free agency, so you make a good point when you say they are going to have to get lucky in the draft. Unfortunately, they have not had much luck in that department since they drafted T. Gwynn.

  37. 77.

    Ichiro
    Derek Jeter
    Carl Crawford
    Hanley Ramirez
    Chase Utley
    Jose Reyes
    Grady Sizemore
    Jimmy Rollins
    Curtis Granderson
    BJ Upton
    Nick Markakis

    Those are just a few I can think of off the top of my head and there are plenty more I’m sure. Some of them obviously hit for more power than others but I don’t think any of them are known for their power. Not to suggest that any of them are the quality of hitter that Tony was but you get where I am going with the comparisons.

    83.

    I certainly did not say that I found the Padres to be boring at home!

  38. 58 … and Mitch Canham with his first hit in a Padre uniform today (digging deep for good news out of today’s box score) …

  39. 87 … you mis-spelled Ichiro! :-)

  40. 58 … and Bard threw out a base-stealer :-)

    McAnulty with 2 Ks in 2 ABs :-(

  41. I dropped out of the attendance conversation earlier today but have enjoyed reading the comments of everyone

    OT: I am happy the competition for the bench and bullpen spots has been so fierce this spring, there will be some dudes who don’t make the squad but deserve to

  42. The Padres can’t capture San Diego’s imagination because:

    A. They’re old.

    B. They’re slow.

    C. They’re white.

    D. They’re cheap.

  43. 91 … I like the bench competition … the bully and #5 competition has been disappointing thus far …

  44. #82: I’m not sure what I’m suggesting. I do suspect a certain “Catch-22″ is at work, and I also believe a World Championship would take care of many things. Sadly, those are hard to come by.

    #84: Ichiro! is a unique case. He’s not the player that Gwynn was, and yet the perception (even by normally smart folks, e.g., Baseball Prospectus) is that Ichiro! is better. Either way, we’ve identified two players who fit that profile in the last quarter century. Throw Wade Boggs in there, too. That’s still not a lot of guys.

    #87: Yeah, I’ll give you Jeter. Crawford and Reyes steal an ungodly number of bases. The rest of those guys hit for power. In fact, if we’re recognizing Markakis as a star, then there’s the east coast thing at work. He’s basically the same hitter as Adrian.

    #91: Agreed, this has been some terrific discussion. Love the spirit. I’m so fired up for Opening Day. (As if that weren’t obvious.)

  45. Re: 91

    I, for one, would love to see LeBlanc get some on the job training in the the number five spot. Or Rusch. Anyone but Germano. I’m surprised he is even in the mix considering he lost his spot in the rotation during the dog days last summer.

  46. 57 … anyone else out there with ESPN Insider access that can tell us what Rob Neyer wrote about today (referencing today’s Ducksnorts post)?

  47. 52: I’m with you in that boat, GY. It frustrates me no end to be at a game at Petco and people are wandering around as if there aren’t even players on the field. They’re clearly not baseball fans but just out for an evening and thought it would be cool to go to Petco, or something. I guess it’s the fate of a diehard baseball fan. :-)

  48. 87:

    What exactly is the Padres problem in your opinion? I think we can all agree that unless they have a Pujols type they aren’t going to have anyone with overwhelming offensive numbers. Of those players you named the only one that’s going to be available is Hanley Ramirez — I’d trade everyone on the team with the exception of Jake and CY to get him — but all the rest aren’t going to end up here.

    Again, that’s why the passing of Porcello for Nick Schmidt was such a huge blunder. I wonder if the Marlins would take Porcello, Headley and another prospect for Ramirez? That’s probably more then they got for Cabrera (just including Maybin and Miller).

  49. There is no attendance problem. Attendance is higher than it has ever been, including the 1998 team and the 1984 team, both of which has greater “star” power than any of the Petco incarnations have had.

    I love being nostalgic about the Q too, and I still go there for events, but those 55,000+ Sky Show and giveaway nights were needed to balance out the 10k Monday through Wednesdays (except when they had the Super $5 buck Mondays with $1 concessions).

    What you are seeing now is a repeat of what happens to most teams with new stadia. Attendance spikes in the first year of a stadium; it declines pretty much every year after that until it finds its equilibrium, then is spiked by championship years, followed by sharp declines with continued losing. Teams’ experience does vary; the Cleveland Indians maintained sellouts because they were WS contenders most of their early years at the Jake; the Giants maintained attendance due to winning and the uber atttraction of Bonds*; watch what happens to them over the next three years.

    Also, the perception that Moores is more concerned about profit than winning is garbage. The team wins more now under Moores than it ever has. The team also doesn’t make a profit, and in most years loses a little with cash calls from ownership to make up the difference; however, it was losing a lot more toward the end of the Q run.

    While the stadium helps the team stay out of the red and allows a bigger payroll, the team simply doesn’t have the revenue streams from TV and radio (like Anaheim, LA, SF, NY, Chicago) to keep up with the big boys in terms of attracting star power, plus the stadium isn’t conducive to attracting offensive fire power. So, they will continue to have to be creative in maintaining and hopefully buiding upon what they have accomplished the last four years, which has never been done in Padres history – consistent, winning baseball.

  50. And if you would like to see what happens to a team that doesn’t win in their new ballpark, I give you:

    The Pittsburgh Pirates

    2000: 21591 avg (last year in Three Rivers)
    2001: 30430 avg (finished 6th in first year in PNC)
    2002: 22312 avg (26% drop)
    2003: 20207 avg (another 10% drop)
    2004: 19750 avg (another drop)
    2005-2007: 22,300 avg – equilibrium reached, still just a little below what the Pirates averaged during 3 year run of divisional titles