Although, I guess this sort of accounts for that:
“Important Note: The Percentile Forecasts are designed to work for the Key Statistic (EqA and EqERA) only. If a player’s 90th percentile forecast for home runs is 42, this should not be read to mean that he has a 10% chance of hitting 42 home runs (or more). Rather, it means that he has a 10% chance of having a performance as valuable as the line represented by the 10th percentile forecast, whether this comes from the particular combination of peripheral statistics listed in the percentile line, or an equally valuable (but different) combination of statistics.”

This reminds me of Jeff Bagwell’s rookie year. Bill James’ projections had him at .317 (or something like that) and nobody else in the NL was projected higher than Gwynn, at .313 (I think) In the following season’s Abstract (or it might have been Bill James’ Baseball Book by then) James wrote about the heat he’d taken for “predicting that rookie Jeff Bagwell would win the batting title,”(which wasn’t his intent at all) and that the criticism caused him to root feverishly for Bagwell that year. In the end, James felt, Bagwell made him look good by winning the NL ROY, if not the batting championship.

http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080325&content_id=2458156&vkey=spt2008news&fext=.jsp&c_id=sd

Top 5 2008 AL Batting Leaders, by PECOTA Projected AVG

Player, Team, AVG

Vladimir Guerrero, LAA, .310
Magglio Ordonez, DET, .306
Placido Polanco, DET, .305
Ichiro Suzuki, SEA, .304
Miguel Cabrera, DET, .300

http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/weblog/2008/03/blacking_growing_doubtful_on_e.html

… Edmonds “doubtful” … Estes expected to go to Portland … Gernamo the “leading candidate” for #5 …

Myrow is a very good hitter … he’s a good player to have at AAA … if Adrian or Clark skip a beat, Myrow can/will fill in at “above replacement level” …

I s’pose Robles will play SS @ Portland … opposite Antonelli … which leaves Stansberry on the bench (or at 3B? … spliting time with McDougal?), I s’pose …

Bass in the ‘pen @ Portland … proving he deserves a call-up if/when needed …

Estes … sure seems he’s done … but if he gets a chance to prove/disprove that with a few starts in AAA, I guess there’s no downside …

Ambres might not start @ for the Beavers … I’ve heard that the OF will be Headley in LF, Macias in CF, Venable in RF … but if Ambres is #4 (and first PHer off the bench), then the team will be good for it … he’s a decent player … to me, he’s a classic “replacement level” OFer … which can be a valuable commidity, especially with Edmonds and Giles not being models of health …

So that leaves Luis Rodriquez and Callis Crabbe on the Padres as backup infielders? I’m good with that … I liked what I saw of both of them @ Peoria … neither are too far above “replacement level” … but don’t seem below it either … biggest concern about Crabbe is his baserunning … he may be fast, but it sure seems like he’s made a lot of outs on the bases during spring training … he’s gotta cool the jets until he learns how to stay safe …