Everywhere but Here
Thu, Mar 13, 2008
by Geoff Young
I’m all over the place today:
- How to Quit Your Job and Write a Book (Or Two) (BallHype). I posted this in the comments on Wednesday, but here’s a little “behind-the-scenes” look at the process of writing the Ducksnorts Baseball Annuals.
- Arizona Dreaming (Baseball Digest Daily). In spring training, what happens before the game is at least as interesting as what happens during the game.
- Where Are They Now: Top Prospects of ‘98, #41-50 (Knuckle Curve). The latest installment in my look back at the top young players from a decade ago includes ex-Padres Derrek Lee and Ben Davis. Ugh, Ben Davis.
Meanwhile back at the ranch, the Padres (well, some of them) are in China. Corey has photos. Over on this side of the pond, Chase Headley’s future appears to be in left field (i.e., the experiment worked).
On a more general note, I’m trying to keep up with game scores and individual performances, but the stories lack intrigue. Seems to me the only positions up for grabs are backup infielder, backup outfielder, fifth starter, and mopup guy. Be still, my beating heart:
- INF: Callix Crabbe, Edgar Gonzalez, Marshall McDougall, Brian Myrow, Oscar Robles, Luis Rodriguez, Craig Stansberry. Anyone care? I didn’t think so.
- OF: Chip Ambres, Jeff DaVanon, Robert Fick, Jody Gerut. Okay, Gerut is kind of interesting.
- SP: Shawn Estes, Justin Germano, Glendon Rusch. Yawn.
- RP: Michael Gardner, Edgar Gonzalez, Carlos Guevara, Jared Wells, Mauro Zarate. I liked what I saw of Zarate in a very limited sample, but still…
I’m fired up for the season, but these spring training “battles” just aren’t doing much for me.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
March 13, 2008 at 8:31 am
Awww, come on Geoff. Ben Davis met the requisite “teen hearthtrob” quota.
Sources tell me that Colt Morton is ready to assume that role soon. Hopefully he delivers more production than Davis ever did.
March 13, 2008 at 8:35 am
Come on, get excited! Everyone knows pitching wins championships; ergo the 5th starter position is HUGE!! And that utility IF is the guy who supplies the grit needed to grind out some tough wins during the dog days of summer. Think about how crucial Tim Flannery was to those great Padres teams of the 80’s.
March 13, 2008 at 8:58 am
No P-Mac love GY?
March 13, 2008 at 9:01 am
The least you could be doing Geoff is pondering nicknames … we don’t have NOG, Jenga nor Blumhorn to kick around anymore.
March 13, 2008 at 9:27 am
2: Well, let’s be honest, the 5th starter killed us the last part of 2004, much of 2005, and most of 2007. I’m surprised the UT is still listing Estes as a candidate but has Rusch slated for the pen. Rusch has an uneven track record, but so do the other options (with LeBlanc, no major league track record), and he has been throwing well this spring.
March 13, 2008 at 9:30 am
Per the Boston Herald via RotoWorld, the Red Sox have released Doug Mirabelli.
March 13, 2008 at 9:36 am
#1: Morton could be the new Mark Parent, and that’s not intended as a back-handed compliment. Dude can hit the ball a long way.
#3: Totally spaced on P-Mac. Must be all the not-so-subliminal messages I was getting from Lance over the weekend.
#4: Good call; let’s get some nicknames going.
#6: Now we know that even Tim Wakefield has only so much pull.
March 13, 2008 at 9:38 am
That “Arizona Dreaming” article describes my morning at Peoria last week perfectly … just pure, dreamin’ fun! Thanks, GY!
3 - re: McAnulty … I’m assuming GY thinks he’s a lock for the #4 OF spot? I know I do
re: INF … “Anyone care?” … *I* do! And you will to if/when KG tweeks a hammy! I think those 7 names fall into 4 groups …
1. Having good spring but perhaps not able to handle role of backup SS … Edgar Gonzalez + Luis Rodriquez
2. Having pretty good spring and would be OK as backup SS … Callix Crabbe
3. A semi-decent backup SS because of his MLB experience … Oscar Robles
4. Will be at AAA Portland no matter what … Brian Myrow, Craig Stansberry, Marshall McDougall (note: Myrow is a *way* better hitter than any of the other 6 on this list … but it’s my understanding that he’s 1B only … so he’s stuck at AAA unless/until there’s an injury to either Clark or Adrian)
I don’t know how the Padres will decide between the options in groups 1/2/3 …
March 13, 2008 at 9:44 am
re: OF … the link above about Headley also has this note …
Center fielder Jeff DaVanon made two good catches and reached base four times.
… so I’m wondering if that keeps him more in the mix for a roster spot than I want him to be … an outfield of Gerut in LF, Hairston in CF, and McAnutly in RF does not scare me, especially offensively (perhaps it should defensively, but it doesn’t, based on what I saw in 5 games last week) … and that’s what I think the Padres will trot out there a couple of times if McAnulty is #4 and Gerut is #5 and both Giles and Edmonds need a day off at the same time (which is gonna happen) …
March 13, 2008 at 9:50 am
6 - Let’s pick him up and trade him back to the Sox in a month for Delcarmen & Okajima.
March 13, 2008 at 9:51 am
1 … Ben Davis has OPS+ of 88 in 448 ABs in 2001 and 92 in 228 ABs in 2002 … http://www.baseball-reference......be01.shtml
Colt Morton will not deliver more production than that … I hope I’m wrong … but I just don’t see anything “eye-popping” about Colt Morton … if he does do better than this, it will be because of hard work, not raw ability …
March 13, 2008 at 10:04 am
Here’s what I see happening in April wrt the Padre OF …
- between Headley, Hairston, and Edmonds, they each get 20 starts in LF/CF in the first 30 games
- Giles gets as many starts as he can handle in RF, with Gerut getting the remainder
- McAnulty gets traded to an AL team for an RP or a prospect
- Portland’s OF will be Ambres, Macias, McAnulty (if not traded) (with Sinisi on DL)
- San Antonio’s OF will be Huffman, Venable, Baxter
- Lake Elsinore’s OF will be xyz1, Hunter, xyz2
- Ft Wayne’s OF will be Durango, Payne, xyz3
Spring stats available here … http://www.usatoday.com/sports.....spring.htm
March 13, 2008 at 10:07 am
LM, there’s no way anyone’s giving up a “prospect” for P-Mac. We’d be lucky to swap him for a case of beer.
I’m still surprised that you didn’t snap him up in last night’s draft!
March 13, 2008 at 10:08 am
12 … xyz2 = Kulbacki
DaVanon will make the Padres if either Edmonds or Giles are on the DL on Opening Day …
Fick doesn’t seem to have a spot … unless they feel compelled to keep him as OF #5 because he can catch … but I don’t think he’s caught since the intrasquad game, has he?
March 13, 2008 at 10:11 am
13 … uh, what draft last night? oops
March 13, 2008 at 10:27 am
12: It’ll be interesting to see what they do with their 3 lower-level CF candidates. Payne and Chalke should both be able to handle the Cal League, and, like Hunter, they’re not going to be very valuable in the corners. Maybe Hunter starts to hit with more power.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Venable as the CF in Portland, but it wouldn’t be a shock to see him repeat AA, either.
March 13, 2008 at 10:28 am
Re: 12 P-Mac is out of Options so its Big League or Bust this year because I dont think he would clear waivers.
March 13, 2008 at 10:43 am
I guess we are assuming that Headley starts the season in the majors so he’d be the 4th outfielder (assuming neither Edmonds or OG is on the DL).
5th OF: Either Davanon or Gerut. Neither is on the 40 man roster so one spot would have to be cleared. It seems like Davanon is more likely to be kept since he’s a switch-hitter and has played more CF.
5th starter: I think Germano will be the initial 5th starter with Rusch moved to the bullpen as the backup plan. He had a good season as a reliever/spot starter in 2004.
Bullpen: I only have 4 relievers (Trevor, Bell, Cla, Thatcher) as locks. Adding Rusch would leave two more spots open. I think Guevara is going to make it (although he might start the season on the DL) with the final spot going to Kevin Cameron.
March 13, 2008 at 10:43 am
Re: 15 the draft was last ngiht huh? D’oh!
March 13, 2008 at 10:45 am
TK @ UT has today’s lineup posted … http://www.signonsandiego.com/....._cubs.html … Gerut in CF, McAnulty in LF, Ambres in RF …
18 … Cameron might start the year on the DL also?
March 13, 2008 at 10:58 am
I don’t see McAnulty as having a future with the Padres. He’s good enough to play for bad teams but he shouldn’t be starting for a contending team. I don’t see him having much use on the bench here either as Gerut or Davanon are better fielders and not much worse (if at all) with the bat. However, he certainly better then some of the starting OF’ers in the majors, that’s why I think he’ll get unloaded for a minor prospect at the end of spring training.
March 13, 2008 at 10:59 am
#15, 19: Sorry you missed us. For those in Ducksnorts 2, we’ll be drafting tomorrow night at 7 p.m. PT. Yahoo! should be sending you a reminder, but just in case…
March 13, 2008 at 11:04 am
Of course, if they didn’t carry 12 pitchers they could carry another bench player like Edgar Gonzalez or Craig Stansberry. If they carried Rusch as their long reliever, they wouldn’t need to carry 7 relievers. By only having 5 bench players, someone other then Barrett should probably be able to play catcher, which helps out Edgar Gonzalez and Robert Fick (who I don’t think has any shot at making the roster).
March 13, 2008 at 11:10 am
21: Yeah, McAnulty on his own is a minor deal. He might be involved in a bigger deal, but he’d be a marginal part of it.
23: Completely agree. Unfortunately the rotation looks to be good for only 800 innings or so, and that cascades into the pen.
Fick doesn’t belong anywhere near this team.
March 13, 2008 at 11:22 am
OT: I got an email asking how to send fan mail to a Padres player. I honestly have no clue; anyone know?
March 13, 2008 at 11:24 am
http://www.usatoday.com/sports.....nllead.htm
I know spring stats don’t mean much, if anything … but it sure is fun seeing the top 4 in SLG so far …
SLUGGING PERCENTAGE
Pujols, StL .926
Headley, SD .840
Gerut, SD .826
McAnulty, SD .826
March 13, 2008 at 11:26 am
25 … my guess is to write it to the Padres … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....es.mlb.com …
San Diego Padres
P. O. Box 122000
San Diego, CA 92112-2000
… and put “Attention: Paul McAnulty” on it somewhere (for example).
March 13, 2008 at 11:28 am
25/27 … or if they want to try to do something during spring training … http://www.springtrainingonlin.....padres.htm … says the address there is …
Peoria Stadium
16101 N. 83rd Av.
Peoria, AZ
March 13, 2008 at 11:33 am
8: I really think I’d rather have Myrow than Clark at this point.
March 13, 2008 at 11:37 am
4: And my absolute All Time favorite, Silent L.
March 13, 2008 at 11:38 am
5: True, I was making light, but the 5th starter does have an impact.
March 13, 2008 at 12:04 pm
25-28: The Padre players may have email addresses, too. I seem to remember writing one of them a few years ago and it didn’t bounce back as undeliverable. First initial, last name @ padres dot com.
29: Everybody’s gotta believe in something. They’re both limited, but Clark knows what its like to stay ready as a bench player. I guess Myrow has a weensy bit more experience in the OF.
30: Mine too.
March 13, 2008 at 12:06 pm
19.
Yes. I missed it too and when I saw the team that I had auto drafted I was stunned! I had no idea it was an NL only draft and why the hell I couldn’t find a bunch of players I wanted. Once I read the notes and stuff I got it. As of right now my starting Catcher is Robbie Hammock and my starting 3rd baseman is Ian Stewart. My team is going to rule!
March 13, 2008 at 12:11 pm
33: I’ve got JR Towles. Ugh.
March 13, 2008 at 12:16 pm
#27, 32: Thanks, guys!
#33, 34: I got Bard & Barrett. My browser exploded at the beginning, so the computer made my first three picks.
March 13, 2008 at 12:34 pm
33: Auto Draft sucks. I had to do it last season and I never recovered.
35: You know, it’s probably better to have that happen at the beginning because you’re still going to get quality in the first few rounds, but the difference comes up later when you’re trying to separate the wheat from the chaff.
March 13, 2008 at 1:04 pm
35 & 36: After a detailed examination of my roster, I only have a couple of dead spots. SBs are going to KILL me unless I make a trade.
But, on the plus side, Autodraft netted me:
Wright
Penny
Hamels
Glavine
Saito
Isringhausen
Griffey
Berkman
So I probably shouldn’t complain too much. That said, I’d be willing to trade a pitcher to shore up my lack of SB & Avg if anyone is interested.
March 13, 2008 at 1:18 pm
Since its NL only I think we are all in the same boat of having only one or two big name guys 3 or 4 good players 3 or 4 marginal gys and the rest guys that we just hope make the team that they are on.
Also I always like B(l)um as his nickname. We just have to wait to see who this years scapegoat is before we can come up with nicknames.
March 13, 2008 at 1:29 pm
34-38
Well If anyone is looking for a SS I have Jimmy Rollins and Troy Tulowitzki on the block. I really want both of them but I am going to need some outfield and 3rd base production more. Scope it out and let me know if you are interested I am open to litterally anything. I kept reminding myself all day about the draft because I wanted to make sure to snatch of some rookies like Maybin, Rasmus and Bruce in the later rounds and instead I went home and folded the endless amounts of laundry my 6 month old daughter creates. Then around 9 I remembered that I forgot to do something today…. I was pretty pissed about the whole thing because I did the exact same thing last year.
March 13, 2008 at 1:34 pm
29 … after seeing Myrow in several PAs last week, I’m with you … Clark did look good also … but right now, Myrow’s got a swing working that is MASHing the baseball every time up … i’ll just say this: the padres are in good shape if Clark gets hurt in the early going …
March 13, 2008 at 1:36 pm
29/40 … it’s pretty grainy, but here’s a look at Myrow’s swing …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v2esY_Yx2EE
March 13, 2008 at 1:39 pm
39: How could you do the same exact thing last year? Your daughter is only 6 months old.
I know the feeling. One year, I got Nevin on my squad after I saw him got hurt in person in Spring Training. Urgh.
March 13, 2008 at 1:39 pm
39: We might be able to reach a deal. I don’t have a ton of depth at 3B, but lets see if we can make a deal.
March 13, 2008 at 1:54 pm
42.
Haha. Yeah well yesterday I read something about Chris Carpenter and his slow rehab and then last night I auto drafted him in something like the 8th or 9th round I think. I wanted to punch myself in the face.
43.
For sure!
March 13, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Maddux left the game early today. I guess he got hit on a comebacker from D Lee. I hope it’s not serious.
March 13, 2008 at 2:05 pm
From today’s LA Times: Willits could end up in minors for Angels
http://www.latimes.com/sports/.....8049.story
March 13, 2008 at 2:14 pm
Maddux: Bruised left leg
March 13, 2008 at 2:40 pm
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....b_chnmlb_1
Maddux pitched 2 good innings … currently 1-1 in top of 6th …
March 13, 2008 at 2:41 pm
Maddux “bruised but OK” … according to TK @ UT …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....ut_ok.html
March 13, 2008 at 3:05 pm
Joe Sheehan @ BP takes a look at the problem the Padres are facing in CF …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=7234 (sub only)
… he makes many “rip”able points (ex. “They’re not a good offensive team”) … but does explore the status and possibilities quite well. His conclusion is this: “in a post-Cameron world, they’re about to find out just how much of what they thought was pitching was actually defense”.
March 13, 2008 at 3:09 pm
50: I think that’s such an arrogant statement to make. Cameron was good, but I don’t remember him making that many “Oh my god!!!” kind of plays last year. Maybe more so in ‘06, but I really felt that he struggled mightily for us last year.
March 13, 2008 at 3:09 pm
51: I should clarify that the “arrogance” was Sheehan’s, not yours LM.
March 13, 2008 at 3:19 pm
50: Good road stats, but EQA does put us middle of the pack among ML teams (OPS+ of 101, about the same). That’s not good, not bad. Better than Petco makes us look, but if good is better than average, we’re still not good.
Our OF is definitely scary. Plenty of guys for the corners, nobody for CF. And no, JP, Lofton doesn’t solve that.
March 13, 2008 at 3:27 pm
51: The problem isn’t going to be a lack of “Oh My God!” plays by Edmonds vis-a-vis Cameron. It’s going to be the prevalence of “How did that fall in?” plays. Cameron was significantly better last year, and the bigger problem is that while Mike could be expected to maintain his performance for a couple of seasons, there’s a big chance that Edmonds continues to slide.
March 13, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Kulbacki in with game tied and bases FOP in top of the 9th.
March 13, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Another very good outing for Wil Ledezma (4 IP, 1 R, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 K). I bet no one predicted that he’d make the team but he just might do it. He’s out of options, left-handed, and he throws 93 MPH. The fact that the team allowed him to throw four innings in relief might be a sign that he’s in the mix for the #5 starter job.
5: Yeah, I think Estes is definitely out of the #5 competition. I think the front-runner is now Germano, with Rusch and Ledezma starting to make some noise. Anyone else I’m forgetting about? LeBlanc is probably still in it as well.
March 13, 2008 at 3:47 pm
55 … KK2 (ie. Kellen Kulbacki) grounded out … Guevara gives up a run in bottom of 9th … Padres lose 3-2 … Crabbe went 3-for-4 and started a DP … McDougal with 3 walks and a HR …
March 13, 2008 at 4:28 pm
MadFriars reporting that Carillo threw 40+31 pitches off a mound yesterday … “timetable remains on target for May” … http://padres.scout.com/2/737034.html (sub only)
March 13, 2008 at 4:39 pm
56: From watching Ledezma, it’s seemed like his big problem is a complete lack of control. If he had a better idea of where the ball was going, he could be a fine starter. Those 2 BB’s in 4 IP against 0 K’s don’t offer much hope he’s fixed that control.
50: How much does Sheehan think solid centerfield defense is worth? If Cameron’s defense was +5 last year and Edmonds and company is -10, that’s a 15 run swing (and that’s probably the high end of the spread). We would have allowed 681 runs last year, moving us from 2nd in baseball to … 2nd (not park adjusted, obviously that matters). It’s not like we turned over the whole team and replaced good defenders at every position with below average ones. Replacing one good defender with one below average one does not make for a showdown on pitching vs. defense.
Also, he massively overstates how bad the Padres’ outfield defense will be. The Reds will have a worse outfield defense because Dunn and Griffey are two of the worst defensive corner outfielders in the game. Edmonds is not the worst defensive centerfielder in baseball, and the Padres had a winning record three years ago sending out someone worse (Dave Roberts). In fact, Sheehan doesn’t really attempt to make a factual case for any of his suggestions. He doesn’t use any sort of defensive stats (except when using the flawed FRAA for Edmonds) or even a scouting consensus.
Finally, analyzing defense in a void is as pointless as analyzing offense in a void. If Corey Patterson makes the defense 15 runs better but hurts the offense by just as much or more, than bringing him in doesn’t help the team. If an outfield of Headley/Hairston/Giles is the worst defensive outfield in the history of baseball but outhits an outfield of Crisp/Patterson/Cameron by the same margin, then you go with the butchers in the field because they’ll help your team more. Nowhere does he make the case that overall these replacements are more valuable than the Padres’ current options. He just assumes you need to replace these butchers out in the field at any cost or states that they can’t play the positions.
March 13, 2008 at 4:50 pm
59 … well said, BenB … and you should give that feedback to JoeS directly (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/contact.php) … which is what I did, but much less eloquently!
March 13, 2008 at 4:57 pm
A summary look at the OF situation …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
… hmm, might the Padres start the season with Giles and Edmonds on the DL? That would buy them time to get a longer look (and/or give a longer showcasing) to McAnulty + Davanon + Gerut
March 13, 2008 at 5:02 pm
OT … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....p;c_id=mlb … Cardinals bringing in Lohse for physical … bummer …
March 13, 2008 at 5:03 pm
53: The Padres did finish 4th in the NL in runs on the road last season. Granted, that’s pumped up a bit by playing 9 games in Colorado but they were 36 runs ahead of 5th place (and 24 behind the 1st place Phillies).
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....p;type=reg
The problem with the Padres last season was that their pitching was terrible in the 2nd half, not their offense. You would think that someone who writes for BP would know that. However Sheehan needs to pump up the Diamondbacks so he’ll take any shot at the Padres that he can.
March 13, 2008 at 6:30 pm
59: That’s well-written, and not being a BP subscriber I can’t speak to what Sheehan said in the hidden part. But I suspect what he may be looking at is a cascade effect. We take a pretty serious defensive downgrade in center. Giles is a year older and they drilled holes in his knee over the winter. There’s talk of putting a converted 3b with below average speed and virtually no OF experience in the other corner. Edmonds may be only 20 plays worse than Cameron (sounds optimistic), but he’s not going to get much help in left and who knows what Giles will be like. Furthermore, he’s quite likely to miss 40-70 games, leading us to go with an inferior offensive and defensive option for a good chunk of the season. We did have a winning record in 2005, but just barely, and it will be a while before 82 wins means anything in NL West again.
I totally agree on Patterson. You have to look at the sum of the player’s contributions, and Patterson still comes out a negative. But that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t be a fine idea to get a healthy, younger full-time CF and turn Jim “Street” Edmonds (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0072560) into a corner OF and the backup CF.
63: Both EQA and OPS+ take parks into account, and both peg us as an average offensive team in 2007. Average isn’t bad and isn’t good, just average.
March 13, 2008 at 7:35 pm
The Padres Eqa and OPS+ might have been right at average last season but in the most important metric, runs scored, they were well above average. I’m not sure that playing 18 games in Colorado and Arizona would skew the numbers that much. Now you could say they scored more runs then they should have because they hit better with runners on base or in scoring position or just happened to string their hits together but the simple fact is that their offense was above average on the road, regardless of what EQA and OPS+ say.
March 13, 2008 at 7:57 pm
65: Schlom, I think the argument could (and probably has been, although I haven’t read every post in this thread) be made that they are above average on the road, but below average at home … and as in “below average” I mean below what the average team would be expected to score after taking Petco into account. I actually haven’t looked to see if that’s true, but it’s easy enough to do.
Anyway, they play 81 games there and I don’t think they should get any special break beyond a normal park adjustment, if that makes any sense.
March 13, 2008 at 8:32 pm
65: That’s just not how it works. Those stats account for every park that you play in. You can’t say “Wow, we had a good offense because we scored on the road, and runs are all that matter” and then say “We didn’t score at home, but there were X, Y, and Z reasons why.” Context either matters or it doesn’t. It can’t not matter on the road but matter to no end at home.
If we’re going to ignore context and peripherals, then Sheehan’s point would still stand, because we weren’t good by raw runs scored. Our offense wasn’t bad last year. It wasn’t good, either.
March 13, 2008 at 8:54 pm
LM, GY, et al,
If’n y’all don’t mind picking up a lurker at a park’n'ride TBD somewhere between Escondido & Hwy 76, I’d love to join ya’ on April 9. If the timing doesn’t work, I can meetcha at the Diamond.
March 13, 2008 at 9:58 pm
59: I was going to say what TW said in 63, but he said it better.
I do think it’s more than just going from Cameron to Edmonds; Giles could be problematic and LF is unsettled at best right now. But I really don’t have a beef with your well reasoned take either. Here’s to hoping we catch some breaks out there.
March 13, 2008 at 9:59 pm
RE 69: Uh, make that what TW said in 64.
March 13, 2008 at 10:52 pm
this is amazingly irrelevant, but Scott Boras was at the SDSU vs BYU game with 3 scouts….
just thought i’d add that
March 13, 2008 at 11:43 pm
Nice comment trail. Joe can annoy me (mostly over his defense of Bonds and stance on steroids) but while his suggestion to get a defense only type of player is unsupported by the offensive subtraction of that player, I am still really, really nervous about our OF defense.
I did a little digging which makes me feel better. In 2005 we had Klesko in left and Roberts in center, which is about what we have now, though Giles is slower now than in 2005. But difference from our home vs. road ERA (rough measure) was 1.27. It was 1.40 last year, during Joe’s “Cameron era), but a paltry 0.24 in 2006, though that was a freakish year for the road pitching.
This is a rough measure, but in 2005 we got a pretty big pitching lift at home with some bad OF, so hopefully we can get it again.
Of course Petco still kills us on net (12th of 16 in NL in home field advantage in 2007, dead last in 2006), but 2005 gives us some hope the balls will not drop that much worse than the last few years.
March 14, 2008 at 6:00 am
72: It’s possible that the heavy air at Petco night games makes it possible for sub-par defenders to do an adequate job. Balls hang up longer, etc. But on the other hand, in 2005 we didn’t have Chris Young getting 2x as many fly ball outs as grounders. Wolf relies on FB outs, too, about as much as Woody did 3 years ago, but there was nobody as extreme as CY.
Even if Edmonds was “just” Roberts circa 2005 defensively, he’s almost certain to miss a lot of games. Maybe Hairston will be our CF savior.
March 14, 2008 at 7:03 am
#50: I haven’t read the entire article, but Sheehan’s conclusion is overly simplistic, as is my rebuttal:
Peavy ‘04 (Payton): 2.27 ERA
Peavy ‘05 (Roberts) 2.88
Peavy ‘06 (Cameron) 4.09
Bring Payton back, and Peavy’s ERA will be below 1.00. Oh, logic doesn’t work that way? My bad.
March 14, 2008 at 7:57 am
Running a shade late this morning. Will have something by 8:15 a.m. PT. Thanks!