Friday Links (29 Feb 08)
Fri, Feb 29, 2008
by Geoff Young
Happy Leap Day. If you haven’t participated in the Opening Day Roster contest, what’s up with that? The winner receives a copy of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual.
Meanwhile, we’ve got links:
- SI.com reports that Brian Giles is feeling good. So is his surgically repaired right knee. [Kevin]
- John Walsh at Hardball Times is searching for baseball’s best pitch. The fastballs of Heath Bell, Chris Young, and Jake Peavy get some love, as do the slider of Peavy and Young (!). [Masticore317]
- Rich, Sully, and friends are doing their annual Two on Two over at Baseball Analysts. As always, their commentary makes for an entertaining read, and this year’s take on the NL West is no exception. The gem here comes from Rich:
See I believe San Diego’s offense is nearly as underrated as the pitching is overrated. The infielders can flat out hit. Adrian Gonzalez is perhaps the most under appreciated hitter in the league. He blistered the ball on the road (.295/.358/.570 with 20 HR) and during the second half (.302/.356/.538). Kevin Kouzmanoff improved his OPS from .673 in the first half to .890 in the second half. While a liability in the field, Kouz should rank as one of the best offensive third basemen in the NL this season. Khalil Greene has been needlessly dissed for far too long. Throughout his career, the four-year veteran has hit .228/.288/.370 at home and .280/.335/.515 on the road.
Whoa, enough of the crazy talk. Someone should write a book with this sort of thing in it. And people should buy that book. Lots of copies, even. [Jim Parish]
- Baseball America has released its list of Top 100 prospects for 2008. Two Padres are represented: Chase Headley at #32 and Matt Antonelli at #50. [Tom Waits]
- According to the U-T, Paul McAnulty is getting some work at third base again this spring. Further down, there’s a little blurb on first-base prospect Kyle Blanks, who homered at Petco Park when the Storm played a game there last summer. Punch line: That was Blanks’ first trip to a big-league ballpark. [LynchMob]
- Jason at sdpadrefan.com examines the spring training position battles. He likes Tim Stauffer as the #5 starter. Gutsy call there.
- John Sickels compares Padres right-hander Mat Latos and Angels right-hander Jordan Walden. Speaking of gutsy calls, Sickels rates Latos as the 46th best prospect in all of baseball. [LynchMob]
- Tim Sullivan at the U-T talks about Chris Young’s desire to make greater use of his change-up this year. That’s great, but what interests me is this tidbit from GM Kevin Towers:
At the A-ball levels, that is the one pitch that we’re adamant about our pitchers learning. It is truly the equalizer. There are pitchers in the major leagues who have a below-average breaking ball — (Greg) Maddux — who win on fastball command and a change-up.
It’s a difference-maker. Guys who are able to throw a change-up in the big leagues and command their fastball can be successful with those two pitches.
This shouldn’t surprise anyone who follows the Padres and their emphasis on disrupting a hitter’s timing. I wonder if other organizations are as aggressive about teaching their young pitchers to change speeds? [Phantom]
- Rookie left-hander Wade LeBlanc is being mentioned as a darkhorse candidate for the #5 spot. You guessed it, he’s got a killer change-up.
- The guys at MadFriars chat with Matt Eddy, who wrote the chapter on the Padres in this year’s Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Speaking of the MadFriars, I’ve got a Q&A with Denis and John scheduled to run early next week. You won’t want to miss that.
- Herija Green at Bugs and Cranks thinks the Padres are a “fourth-place” team. How original.
- Someone in Chicago doesn’t hate Mark Prior. Presumably he’ll be run out of town as well.
- Don’t look now, but the Padres have a tough interleague schedule. We’ll see what impact this has on the race.
- Former Padres shortstop Bill Almon has been nominated for the College Baseball Hall of Fame. Almon was the first pick overall in the 1974 draft, when the Padres took him ahead of Dale Murphy (#5), Garry Templeton (#13), and Lance Parrish (#16), among many others.
- Tom Krasovic at the U-T takes a good look a the Padres left field situation. Krasovic gets extra bonus points for working in a Bill James reference.
- I’m rooting for Jody Gerut to make the club. From a recent U-T article:
Gerut majored in history at Stanford, with an emphasis on Russian history in the 20th century. “My thesis was on Soviet patent law, which is a contradiction in terms.”
I’m pretty sure “expertise in Soviet patent law” qualifies as an intangible.
- Brock for Broglio interviews Tom Tango. Closer to home, MB at Friar Forecast chats with Padres front office staffer Chris Long. Good stuff.
Catch even more links at del.icio.us.
Dup dor a’az Mubster.
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February 29, 2008 at 7:02 am
Gabe Gross of Milwaukee to the Pads? And why would a Canadian newspaper have that rumor?
http://www.metronews.ca/column.aspx?id=108872
February 29, 2008 at 7:18 am
Hey, didn’t see this in the links:
http://friarforecast.com/?p=326
From MB’s blog.
February 29, 2008 at 7:26 am
#2: It’s the last link.
February 29, 2008 at 7:28 am
You can get the 2008 Padres regular season schedule in ical or csv format to download into your personal calendar at http://www.mysportscal.com
Go Padres!!!
February 29, 2008 at 7:32 am
Re: 1 the real question is how often do you read Canadain news papers LaMar?
February 29, 2008 at 7:53 am
One other link to our site, hey you got plug your own stuf..:)
We had an interview with Matt Eddy of Baseball America, who did the Padres Top 30 rankings if anyone is interested
http://padres.scout.com/2/731339.html
February 29, 2008 at 7:54 am
Don’t the Rockies emphasize the change up too? It seems like every pitcher they have throws it a lot.
No suprise about CY’s slider being so effective. As we saw last year, when he has that thing working it’s absolutely devastating. I’m sure at least part of that is hitters have to get so geared up to hit that crazy letter-high fastball. If he’s going to mix in the change up more often he could be downright scary this year.
February 29, 2008 at 8:01 am
GY, you’re right about that Russian history in the 20th century. I took a Russian Revolution and a Cold War class last semester. They were some of the best history classes I’ve ever taken. Interesting stuff!
BTW, Rasputin still has the scariest eyes I have ever seen in a man. If anyone wants to dispute that, go to wikipedia and look him up. Creapy….
February 29, 2008 at 8:03 am
#6: Okay, so that’s at least two people who didn’t read all the links.
February 29, 2008 at 8:11 am
Good call about the interleague scheduling. We’ve got a rough go of it this year. I look forward to those games against Detroit, much as they may hurt.
February 29, 2008 at 8:14 am
Also, from the Bugs & Cranks article: “and the Rockies bring back an up-and-coming team than already went to the World Series almost completely intact. ”
After giving us grief for doing “literally nothing to instill any confidence ,” I love that Colorado losing Josh Fogg and other relievers (but adding Marcus Giles!) makes their winter worthwhile.
I guess people forgot we traded for a CF, a 2B, and a potentially lights-out #5 starter. I’m not saying that the Padres set the world on fire this off-season, but it’s pretty lame that one team does even less than we do to improve, and they are in good shape.
February 29, 2008 at 8:19 am
9: Dang, Geoff, now that you’re doing this full time and overwhelming us with huge tracts of links, you have to cut us a little slack if we miss one or two.
February 29, 2008 at 8:20 am
12. Guilty…
February 29, 2008 at 8:21 am
9. Now, its twice…too many things going on today
February 29, 2008 at 8:23 am
#12, 14: Baseball is back, so it’s all good.
February 29, 2008 at 8:30 am
11: No slack for you! Come back - One year!
February 29, 2008 at 8:32 am
11: It was at least 25 years ago that Bill James pointed out that teams who performed above expectations and were content to stay pat usually declined the following year. Bringing back an overacheiving team intact is not enough.
Also, I love that last year we were counting on Termel Sledge and Jose Cruz to fill LF. This year we have a stud prospect (Headley) a former stud prospect who was phenomenal in limited duty (Hairston), a guy with tremedous potential who is finally healthy (Gerut), a slimmed down and re-dedicated P Mac and a few other journeyman type guys who can be productive off the bench.
Can anyone think of a comp for Gerut, a guy who was great as a rookie, lost a few years to injury, and then (hopefully) came back to have a productive hitter at age 30?
February 29, 2008 at 8:44 am
Darn! It was all good until the Links Nazi showed up!
Anyone see this one?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
I hope not or I guess I’m banned for two years.
It’s just a little ST fluff piece, but it’s about Trevor and so it’s pretty fun read.
February 29, 2008 at 8:45 am
17: Unfortunately, Sledge himself may fit into that Gerut category if it’s not defined too narrowly. Solid rookie season, then hobbled by injuries. It’s not an exact match at all, but there are similarities.
I really like Gerut and hope he makes the team, but still, I don’t see a huge difference between the candidates this year and last. We may get much better production, hopefully, but those names don’t inspire much more confidence in me now than the Sledge/Cruz combo did in 2007. Cruz had a down 2006 but was still carrying a lifetime 100+ OPS+.
Right now I’d put Headley’s chances of breaking camp with the big team at less than 25%, barring an injury to Hairston/PMac/Gerut.
February 29, 2008 at 8:59 am
#19: Sledge was my initial thought as well, but upon further review, Gerut was younger and better:
Sledge: age 27, 100 OPS+
Gerut: age 25, 100 OPS+
I remain skeptical because Gerut hasn’t done anything in years, but for the price, this was a shrewd signing. Low-risk, medium-reward.
February 29, 2008 at 9:00 am
I’m a bit leary that I might have missed it in the links list above … but I don’t think I saw this Yahoo piece on Edmonds …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
… just good to get a non-local perspective … and this one makes his “aches & pains” pretty tangible …
February 29, 2008 at 9:04 am
Corey’s posted today’s lineup:
http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/....._japa.html
Game starts at noon PT, Estes pitching.
February 29, 2008 at 9:05 am
XM 178 for those interested…
February 29, 2008 at 9:12 am
20: I think you meant Gerut 120 OPS+. Yes, he was better and younger, but he wasn’t really young for his ML debut, either.
It’s a great value signing, but should we really be that much more confident because our possible LF for 2007 are Hairston / Gerut / McAnulty / Headley, when last year they were Sledge / Cruz(very solid against LHP for his career) / McAnulty / Cust?
February 29, 2008 at 9:14 am
2 … Yo, GY (and Pat, I s’pose) … THANKS for the link to the Chris Long interview! Geoff, do you remember meeting Chris Long? He was at the Baseball Prospectus Pizza Feed at Petco in 2005 … here’s a pic I took … http://photos1.blogger.com/blo.....IM0070.jpg … from left to right, that’s Dave Pease (BP), Chris Long, and Paul Swydan (who was working for the Rockies and BP at the time) … that was a good day … and the thing I remember most was that Chris was ecstatic about getting Chase Headley in the draft … he really did *nail* that one!
Here’s a link that has a few other pics from the BP PF … http://whassup98.blogspot.com/.....chive.html … a good day!
February 29, 2008 at 9:20 am
#24: Yes, 120 OPS+, thanks for the catch. I don’t see a huge difference between this year’s LF and last year’s except that the guys in the mix now have a little more upside. Gerut > Sledge, Hairston > Cruz, Headley > Cust (obviously Cust looks better now, but at the time, he’d been released by several teams).
#25: I do remember Chris. That was a good day.
February 29, 2008 at 9:43 am
25: Nice article, Lynch; thanks.
I was intrigued by the comment the author made about free agent CF being thin for the 2008 off season. When I checked at mlb4u I decided he was quite right. Cameron is the only interesting name listed and he’s going to be pretty old by then.
However, Carl Crawford is listed as a LF free agent. I’ve always had the general impression he is an excellent athlete. Anyone have any more specific insight into his OF abilities? Do you think he could play CF and play it well enough to start in Petco? Im’ certainly intrigued by him. He won’t hit many HR’s, but he’ll hit a lot of three baggers and a goodly amount of doubles; plus, he can definitely steal a base and he’ll only be 28.
Then there’s Baldelli, who is listed as a RF. That could be quite the flyer, but KT does like to gamble. If he has a bounce back season this year, he could be picked up cheap and for a short contract, I would think.
But other than those two, I agree with the author that there just isn’t much out there in the way of FA to man CF for us in 2009.
February 29, 2008 at 9:56 am
UT gives an update on the plans for radio coverage of the 2008 Padres … http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....iacol.html …
February 29, 2008 at 9:59 am
27 … you’re refering to the link in 21 … the links in 25, by comparison, are frivolous … just so ya know
February 29, 2008 at 10:09 am
#5: Always trying to broaden one’s horizon’s, eh? I’ll have another Molson’s, eh.
It came up on a Google alert for “Padres.”
February 29, 2008 at 10:34 am
27: Isn’t Crawford the guy that everyone was drooling over when the Rays came to town a few years ago? He showed good speed and for a few days all the locals were clamoring for a guy like that. I don’t see either of those guys coming to San Diego. Our best option is probably going to be Antonelli.
February 29, 2008 at 10:58 am
29: Ah, now I know who the Link Nazi is.
February 29, 2008 at 11:00 am
31: Probably. He’s a fine player with great speed/base stealing skills. Out of curiosity, why do you not see him coming to SD? Would it be his lack of desire to play here, the FO’s unwillingness to shell out for big money FA’s, a combination thereof, or d. none of the above?
February 29, 2008 at 11:08 am
Re: 33 FO’s unwillingness to shell out for big money FA’s. If Crawford has another good year this year he will prob get at least 5y/$70M from a team like the yankees or dodgers.
February 29, 2008 at 12:08 pm
Home feed on XM 178. Nice.
February 29, 2008 at 12:10 pm
Re: 35 also on 1090
February 29, 2008 at 12:11 pm
1-0 Seattle
February 29, 2008 at 12:12 pm
Re: 37 or KC I should say
February 29, 2008 at 12:14 pm
3-0 KC
February 29, 2008 at 12:15 pm
Not the start I was hoping for. Ugh.
February 29, 2008 at 12:15 pm
KC up 3-0 in the first. Estes being Estes…
February 29, 2008 at 12:16 pm
34: Yep, Crawford will get a huge payday due to his age, tools and track record. The Padres wouldn’t sign a guy like that for Aaron Rowand money, let alone the kind of money other teams will throw at him.
February 29, 2008 at 12:16 pm
34: I agree; he’ll likely be long term (not too much of a concern given his age and health history) and expensive. We do have a goodly amount of salary coming off the books after 2008 though.
Mostly it will be small salary, bit players like Prior, Wolf, Rusch, Barrett, etc., but some of it is big money. Hoffman’s deal is done, as well as Giles, Edmonds, and Maddux. Seems like it could be an interesting off season for the team.
February 29, 2008 at 12:16 pm
Go fifth starters!
Yikes.
February 29, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Estes doesn’t make it out of the first. Sometimes optimism just isn’t enough.
February 29, 2008 at 12:24 pm
6-0 KC
February 29, 2008 at 12:29 pm
Re: 43 Padres are currently on the hook for $28M next year (A-Gon $3M, Greene $6.5M, Peavy $11M, Young $4.5 M and a $3M buyout of Giles). If they keep the payroll around $70M then they will have $40M to fill 21 Roster spots, I dont see them signing any player for more than $10M a year and we all know how Sandy feels about deals that are more than3 years.
February 29, 2008 at 1:00 pm
Just back from lunch … the grass just outside the entrance to my building was getting mow’d … ah, the smell … ah … I *LOVE* it!!!
February 29, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Some good news … Kevin Goldstein @ Baseball Prospectus today wrote an article reviewing the bottom half of MLB’s player development systems … and it did *NOT* include the Padres
February 29, 2008 at 1:24 pm
Re: 47, Re: 43: If you consider that we could have quite a few young, inexpensive players filling the roster in ‘09 …
LF and RF have a few pretty good options: Headley, Will Venable, Chad Huffman, Scott Hairston; Antonelli should be at 2B; Nick Hundley, Colt Morton, and possibly Mitch Canham at some point, could help behind the plate; and I’m guessing that two of the open #3-5 spots in the rotation will be filled by LeBlanc and maybe Carrillo, with Inman, Geer, Stauffer, and Ramos also possibilities. In the bullpen, they will still have a lot of good, young arms and have a few others that are on the way. Jared Wells, Will Startup, Ernesto Frieri, and Wilton Lopez could all be ready to contribute. The only huge hole will be in CF and either the set-up or closer role, depending on Hoffman’s situation.
…SO maybe they could afford to make a free agent splash and sign a guy like Carl Crawford, although he probably won’t be available until 2010 because it looks like the there is a team option for ‘09. It’s still a longshot considering the team’s history with spending money in free agency, but I’d love to see them do something big next off-season. They could do it with the money freed up from the departure of Giles, Wolf, and Maddux (close to $25 million). They can go after a big-time outfielder like Crawford, add another veteran starter, and shore up the bullpen with that money alone.
February 29, 2008 at 1:33 pm
Edmonds with first official spring RBI …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....b_sdnmlb_1
February 29, 2008 at 1:38 pm
KT @ UT is bloging again today … http://www.signonsandiego.com/....._runs.html
February 29, 2008 at 1:42 pm
RE: 52 you mean TK?
February 29, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Re: 50 I dont see the Padres starting the year with two rookies in their rotation, a rookie at 2B, a rookie backup catcher and a possible rookie in the OF.
February 29, 2008 at 1:49 pm
It’s way too early for this but in the race for the 5th starter spot:
LeBlanc: 0
Estes: -1
Ha, my pick just came closer to coming true.
February 29, 2008 at 1:53 pm
re 50: If those rotation “candidates” really do become 2/5ths of the starters in 09 we’re in for 3rd place……at best.
Carillo isn’t healthy yet
LeBlanc could contribute, maybe this year, certainly by next
Ramos/Geer are the same guy and he isn’t helpful at the major league level.
Inman needs at least 08 and part of 09 in the minors, even then he’s only be 22…..if he were up this season or the beginning of next he’s be making his MLB debut at about the same age as Peavy did.
They are going to sign some rehabbing pitcher for the 4/5 slots every year since every FA SP wants to throw in Petco
February 29, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Re 54: I have a feeling most of those guys I mentioned should have some major league experience by the time ‘09 starts, especially if the team falls out of contention early this season. I think Antonelli, Headley, and LeBlanc will all get regular playing time at some point this season and be fixtures by ‘09.
February 29, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Dinger for Antonelli. 9-2
February 29, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Home run Antonelli!
February 29, 2008 at 1:56 pm
Antonelli went yard
February 29, 2008 at 2:01 pm
re 56: I can see an ‘09 rotation of Peavy, Young, FA veteran, LeBlanc, and whoever wins out over all the other guys. The way everyone is raving over LeBlanc and his changeup, I think he could handle the #4 or 5 spot in the rotation after a full season of AAA in ‘08. If the Pads aren’t crazy about anyone else in the organization after this season, maybe they would go after two stop-gap, veteran free agents AGAIN.
February 29, 2008 at 2:11 pm
53 … yup, i meant TK @ UT … thanks (so, you the “Link Nazi”? see 32 for ref
) …
55 … if you’re going to do that, doesn’t Stauffer get a +1 for yesterday? me thinks so …
58/59/60 … YES … take *that* Keith Law
February 29, 2008 at 2:11 pm
Now 9-5 bottom of the fifth, with the Padres still batting and men at 1st and 2nd.
February 29, 2008 at 2:17 pm
9 hits + 3 walks by 12 different hitters … so far, so good … at the plate, anyway … for today …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....b_sdnmlb_1
February 29, 2008 at 2:23 pm
Is Carillo in Peoria throwing or is he still rehabbing?
February 29, 2008 at 2:32 pm
Wierd, Antonelli walked. Nice game for him so far.
Is it a bad sign when our kids are hitting better than our starters (granted, they’re facing a completely different level of pitching)?
February 29, 2008 at 2:55 pm
55: I’m torn. I listed Estes as my predicted 5th starter, but we’re almost certainly a better team if he’s not.
February 29, 2008 at 3:12 pm
Who is this Adam Bass character pitching in the 8th for the Padres? I can’t find him on MiLB.com. Anybody know anything about him? Apparently he was impressing Andy and Ted.
February 29, 2008 at 3:21 pm
Re: 68
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....Bass.shtml
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com....._id=454555
February 29, 2008 at 3:26 pm
69 … nice job on the links, SteveC … whatd’ya-know-Kokomo? How does a town in Indiana get to be named Kokomo, I wonder …
I’ll bet I get to see Mr. Bass pitch long-relief for the Beavers this year …
February 29, 2008 at 3:29 pm
Blanks got in the game … K’d and made an E … sigh …
Nice to see the Padres light up Soria
Venable with a 2-run shot …
February 29, 2008 at 3:34 pm
70 … who knew? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kokomo%2C_Indiana … Joe Thatcher is listed amonst Kokomo’s notables …
February 29, 2008 at 3:35 pm
Anyone listening: Did Teddy say that Trevor has ditched the windup experiment? Think that’s what I heard…
February 29, 2008 at 3:42 pm
I’m going to drive this bandwagon again…how about signing Kyle Lohse to a one year deal? I’d imagine that they could get him for around $8m or so (maybe even less). He’s no world-beater, but he’s better then average and would take a lot of the pressure off Wolf, Prior, and their probable replacements. He’s certainly a better option then what they have now. The Padres seem to be going into the season hoping for a lot of things — a resurgence by Edmonds, Giles’ health, Wolf and Prior pitch well, Germano or another starter fills the 5th starter hole. All that can come true, but then again, all that could fail.
They have to leverage Petco Park for pitching as it’s going to kill them for acquiring free agent hitters. Unless they think they are going to be producers of talent, which with their track record, doesn’t seem likely.
February 29, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Lohse isn’t a bad idea, although it won’t happen.
February 29, 2008 at 3:49 pm
58/59/60 … TK @ UT describes the Antonelli HR thusly …
Matt Antonelli homered down the left-field line today, giving the Padres reason to smile with the Royals ahead 9-1. Antonelli’s bases-empty shot, a high drive that went more than 350 feet …
… ah … “high drive” … ah …
February 29, 2008 at 3:50 pm
Why not? Padres too cheap or you think he’ll only sign a multi-year deal?
He’s the perfect target for the Padres and Petco is the perfect place for him. He most likely isn’t going to get a multi-year deal, but he can sign a one year deal to pitch one season of his prime in the best place for pitchers. Does that make too much sense? Or, as I’ve argued here over and over, is winning secondary to the bottom line for Moores?
February 29, 2008 at 3:51 pm
75 … why not? Just for financial reasons? Doesn’t the longer he goes into ST as a FA mean his price might come down? At what price point would you sign him? At what price point might the Padres sign him? Do you think they’ve made him an offer … or has he made comments indicating he’s not likely to sign with Padres?
Spring is for questions …
February 29, 2008 at 3:54 pm
77 … simmer down a bit, Schlom … my guess is that Moores knows that winning *helps* the bottom line. I’ll bet that he’s an ROI genius … based on his track record … and on who he’s hired as VP (ie. SA) …
February 29, 2008 at 3:57 pm
Padres add a final run in bottom of 9th … lose 13-9 … nice day for Edgar Gonzalez (2-for-2 + a BB) … they won 9-7 in the post-Estes version of the game …
February 29, 2008 at 3:59 pm
73: Trevor ditching the windup was in the UT today. They weren’t seeing any velocity or movement benefits.
74: Absolutely agree on Lohse’s potential value, but there was another UT story recently about how the team allots money to roles. They seem to have either paid out what they budgeted for pitching or they’re just not interested. Me, I hope they’re watching him and have a quiet offer on the table, with the stipulation that they’ll publicly repudiate it if his agent tries to use it to get other teams to big.
The need seems pretty clear. They’ve hoped to get a good, year-long performance from the back of the rotation for several seasons now, and that hope hasn’t been rewarded. Maybe they see something in his medical records or his delivery that worries them, like it did with Jason Schmidt last year. Too bad those same eyes weren’t watching Nick Schmidt.
February 29, 2008 at 4:00 pm
#77: Same reason that they didn’t make a play for Livan — they feel they’ve got enough internal candidates.
As for winning vs bottom line, I doubt that the Padres view these as mutually exclusive goals.
February 29, 2008 at 4:05 pm
81: Maybe not the UT, but it is here:
http://tinyurl.com/2v3znq
February 29, 2008 at 4:12 pm
I guess we’ll see how it turns out. I don’t like the idea of a fixed budget — if Lohse said he’d pitch here for $3m this year would they turn him down because they’ve already spent their limit?
I also don’t like the idea of relying on young players. What in the Padres history (other then Jake and T Gwynn) makes you think they will be able develop their own players? I guess it’s possible that they might turn it around but it’s doubtful looking at their track record.
The Padres hope is that either Wolf, Young and Estes stay healthy, Prior and/or Hensley comes back from injury and is effective, or one young guy (Leblanc, Geer, Stauffer) comes up and is successful in the majors. This is along with the other huge question marks on offense (Edmonds and Giles are healthy, the OF hits). That just seems a lot to hope for and all the pitching hopes are more likely to not come true based on their track records.
Now, I’m not saying that Kyle Lohse would ensure that they win the West, but if the pitching plays out like it has (Young throws about 180 innings, Wolf makes 20 starts, Prior 10 ineffective ones, they can’t find a 5th starter) then they are going to be in trouble.
February 29, 2008 at 4:18 pm
84 … right on … well said … the state of the Padres right now does seem “risky” and Lohse mitigates some of that risk … enough to justify the expense? I dunno … that’s SA/KT’s call, I s’pose …
February 29, 2008 at 4:21 pm
81 … an issue in the medical does seem like a possible explanation … would explain why he’s still an FA … he posted ERA+ of 100 last year … that seems like a valuable commidty … http://www.baseball-reference......ky01.shtml
83 … thanks for the link … I’d missed that news …
February 29, 2008 at 4:34 pm
Talking about the Padres track record in developing young players makes me think the Padres are going to trade Headley. I don’t know if they will do it before the season because I think they want to give Hairston a chance to see if he can be the longterm answer but I don’t see how Headley can stay here. His bat isn’t that special for LF and he’s not going to beat out Kouzmanoff at 3B. If Hairston can hit, they can use Headley to get OF’ers which they are going to need in 2009 if they buy out Giles.
February 29, 2008 at 4:36 pm
OT … here’s a *very* fun fact … remember Al Rosen? He’s celebrating his 21st birthday today …
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Al_Rosen
February 29, 2008 at 4:38 pm
68 - Adam Bass is the man! I’m routing for him to get a shot at the ML level this year.
People here are going to start to think I’m his agent or something!
February 29, 2008 at 4:40 pm
87: Chase has had 18 major league at bats, I do not believe anyone knows for sure what type of player he will turn out to be. IMAO. The Padres will find out the answer to that question, while he is in a Padre uniform.
February 29, 2008 at 6:52 pm
“we have enough internal candidates” - I actually truly believe the Padres when they sum up their pitching - I don’t believe them when they talk about the position players.
2008’s “we have enough internal candidates” was used all Winter long to sum up a very weak outfield situation –
2007’s same line field re: the outfield situation “we have enough internal candidates” left to promoting T.Sledge as a .300 hitting lead off hitter that they had the gall to promote as one who could steal 20 bases .. and used to justify/legitimize getting rid of Jack Cust (Cust hit two mammoth blasts today) ……..then we end up, in one of the biggest games in the franchise’s history having a end of the line guy like Brady Clark patrolling center.
February 29, 2008 at 8:04 pm
#91: Yes, if only we’d had Cust in center.
March 1, 2008 at 9:06 am
92: Yeah, all in all the OF didn’t work out all that badly last year. It took a lot of guys to make it work out (Crudge, Hairston, Bradley, etc.). But it’s hard to deal with losing two of your starting OF at the same time for any team. It was a really tough, tough break to lose Bradley and Cameron, but that’s not poor planning on the FO’s part, it was just a bad break.
March 1, 2008 at 9:47 am
Re: 93 The Pads are going to lose 2 out of three and possibly 3 out of three next year…
March 1, 2008 at 10:19 am
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....quire.html
It’s great to see that the Dodgers are thinking about blocking another one of their stud prospects (Andy LaRoche this time) with a vet who’s a little above replacement level–this time it’s Brandon Inge.
Rock on Ned Coletti!
March 1, 2008 at 11:29 am
lol Lohse for 8M….are you kidding me?
Last I checked spring training already started and the guy doesn’t have a job, even his wife doesn’t think he’s worth 8M anymore.
Bottom line, there is no guarantee the guy is going to be even league average, even in Petco…..so offer him 500k and a shot at the 5th starter gig.
March 1, 2008 at 11:34 am
91: You’re still conflating two very different issues. Going with Sledge/Cruz in LF at the start of last year is a legitimate criticism, even though there were solid reasons to believe they could be sufficient. Sledge had always hit RHP, Cruz had always hit LHP.
You find me a team, any team, anywhere, that can replace its top two CF on the depth chart with a week left in the season with a player who is likely to be better than Brady Clark, and then I’ll buy that it was a fixable problem. That’s like saying the team should be expected to replace Peavy and Young if they got hurt on September 8th. Brady Clark is the prototype of the 3rd CF on the depth chart. Clark, or a guy so like him as to be virtually indistinguishable, is the player every other team calls up if their own Cameron and Bradley go down with a week left. And he did pretty well until that final game. He went 10 for 30 with 6 walks after being pressed into full-time duty that last week. Even if we’d had Maybin or McCutcheon or Rasmus any other top-shelf CF candidate, they could have easily had a crap game in #163. In fact, they could have given us a 600 OPS the week before and contributed to our NOT getting to play #163.
March 1, 2008 at 11:45 am
96: To be fair, Greg Maddux wasn’t league-average last year and we’re paying him 10M. I guess he was league-average if you expand the ERA+ a couple of points on either side of 100, but his 2007 mark of 98 is only 3 ticks better than Lohse’s career number, and worse than what Lohse did last year.
Lohse is no world-beater, but he’s a better bet to throw 180 league-average innings than any current Padre SP candidate for the 4th and 5th spots.
I’m positive he’s not going to be paid 8M by the Padres, but he’s worth a lot more than a 500K contract. On a one-year deal I’d offer him 10 times that. If we’d had a Kyle Lohse last year we’re in the playoffs.
March 1, 2008 at 11:59 am
A couple of good entries over at TK @ UT’s blog today …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....index.html
… including a Chad Huffman update.
March 1, 2008 at 12:50 pm
“You find me a team, any team, anywhere, that can replace its top two CF on the depth chart with a week left in the season with a player who is likely to be better than Brady Clark, and then I’ll buy that it was a fixable problem”.
Again, I am probably erroneously fusing two different issues but if we had better depth on the farm (or KT had been more aggressive bringing in vet after the disasster who would have cleared waivers) then Brady Clark is not in center field in game #163. Brady Clark is clearly a corner outfielder and seeing him patrol Coors field on a number of balls hit his way clearly showed that).
#92 - No Cust in center, but how about in left and Hairston in center. After all, according to management, Hairston is now our backup centerfielder.
March 1, 2008 at 1:03 pm
Last year when we moved Cust (even after he bashed a half dozen homers in first week and a half) the point was made at that time by many on this blog that there was no room for him on the roster at that time. (Cruz, Sledge, Branyan were ahead of him on the depth chart).
This year when I cried for a decent vet to be inked via a free agent signing the same arguement was made that the “in house” candidates were better and that any free agents would be “too expensive”. Now we are looking at the likes of Gerut, Davanon, Ambres to be top candidates to get 200 plate appearances this year -now we are actually considering the prospect of throwing Tony Clark out in left and the Pads could have had a vet like Shannon Stewart or a Kenny Lofton (or the countless others who signed for dirt cheap) for next to nothing…
March 1, 2008 at 1:23 pm
100: The disaster occurred one week before the end of the season. Nobody’s available at that point. Even if they are, it’s for a week, they’re ineligible for the playoffs. What CF vet do you think was still on waivers at that point who would have been better than Clark? Does anyone really believe that the Braves put Andruw on waivers for S’s and G’s 7 days before the end of the year? He may been on, but that usually happens between the non-waiver deadline and early September.
Even the Red Sox, one of the deepest franchises around, would have been using a Brady Clark-type player if Crisp and Ellsbury BOTH got hurt on the same day one week before the end of the season. Or they’d have shifted the overmatched Drew to center, about the same as us using OG there. Probably the same number of balls drop.
Clark was fine in CF for 6 games until game 163. And anybody can have a bad game. Mike Cameron had a few early in the year.
101: Agree on Cust. I think way too many people bought into “he’s so bad defensively we couldn’t possibly use him.” When Agon was struggling badly it would have been great to give him a few days off. He could have played LF in smaller parks and been the first option as a pinch-hitter, instead of Blum. Jenga was a better overall fit as a starter, but he wasn’t around full-time, either.
Stewart and Lofton are quite likely to be not-better than the players in-house. Stewart’s OPS+ the last 3 years have been 87, 88, and 101. One out of three years he’s been average. Lots of people are average.
March 1, 2008 at 1:27 pm
Nice inning for LeBlanc against some semi-respectable Mariners. If Jerry Coleman can be believed, he induced a chopper from Vidro, struck out Norton on a curveball (I’d guess it was really a change), and got a solidly hit grounder to second from Beltre. He got ahead of all three batters.
March 1, 2008 at 1:33 pm
And Headley just cleared the batter’s eye on a homer. Nice.
March 1, 2008 at 2:10 pm
Next at bat, Headley doubles off of the center field wall.
March 1, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Woooo! Padres win! Sinisi drives in the game winning run in the bottom of the ninth!
March 1, 2008 at 3:38 pm
haha for fun
5th starter
Leblanc +1 (1 IP, SO)
Germano +1 (2.1 IP, 2 SO)
Stauffer +1 (2 IP, BB, SO)
Rusch -1 (1.1 IP, 1 ER, BB)
Estes -1 (2/3 IP, 6 ER, 2 BB)
J Wells 0 (2.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 SO)
IF Bench
Crabbe +2 (2 1B, 2B, 1 RBI) 3-6 6 AB, 3 Gms
Rodriguez- 0 (1B, 2 RBI) 1-3 3 AB, 2 Gms
E Gonzalez +1 (BB, 2 1B, 2B, 3B, 3 RBI) 4-6 6 AB, 3 Gms
Stansberry -1 (2 BB, 1 RBI) 0-4 4 AB, 3 Gms
Robles- 0 (1B) 1-5 5 AB, 2 Gms
lemme know what you think, or any arguments.
good win today
March 1, 2008 at 3:40 pm
wells had one bad game one good one… whereas rusch had just one game and it didnt go as well. just to explain that one
robles i guess could also be a -1
March 1, 2008 at 6:40 pm
107: You need a left field battle with Hairston, Headley, Gerut, and Davanon. I think you should keep Crabbe at only +1. He got picked off today and his single was mostly seeing eye.
March 1, 2008 at 8:04 pm
a few interesting notes from Corey Brock at mlb.com …
Single-game tickets for the 2008 season went on sale Saturday through padres.com, padresbeisbol.com, by phone at 1-877-FRIARTIX and also at the PETCO Park box office. The Padres sold more than 50,000 tickets during the first three hours. The regular-season opener on March 31 sold out.
Black said that relievers Kevin Cameron (hamstring) and Justin Hampson (shoulder) continue to progress, though there’s no timetable for a return to action, but neither is expected to pitch in a Cactus League game for a week.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
March 1, 2008 at 8:08 pm
94: Yes, you’re right, but I was trying to make the point Tom Waits made more directly in 97; I meant it was a tough break to lose both Bradley and Cameron to injury at that point in the season and any team would have had a hard time replacing those sorts of players, at that time of the season with someone much better than Clark.
March 1, 2008 at 8:22 pm
OT, but baseball-related. I went to the USD-Missouri game out at Cunningham Stadium today…first college game I’ve ever been to, so it was a little bit of a different experience, but still cool. Cunningham is a very interesting facility, but it’s a neat little place to watch a game. USD took home the win 5-4 with a nice 3-run rally in the 6th. The best part about it? Being able to watch live baseball again. Spring is here.
Anyway, I took a bunch of photos during the game for my own enjoyment; I posted them online for a Missou fan who wanted to see them, so I thought I’d pass the link along here as well. Enjoy!
http://www.flickr.com/photos/1.....019287872/
March 1, 2008 at 8:49 pm
#112: Pretty sure the best part is that USD won.
Glad you got a chance to experience the college game. It is different but a lot of fun. Thanks for sharing pix.
March 1, 2008 at 9:46 pm
113. I guess I’m impartial since I go to Cal State San Marcos, but it was nice to see the local boys pull out a win.
Glad you enjoyed the pictures…I usually shoot at least 1 Pads game a year, so when that comes up I’ll post those here as well.