Friday Links (22 Feb 08)
Fri, Feb 22, 2008
by Geoff Young
Weather permitting, we’ve got a meetup tonight at Tony Gwynn Stadium. As of this writing, the rain is coming down pretty good in my neck of the woods, so stay tuned. I’ll keep everyone updated in the comments.
Also, my proof copy of the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual arrived in the mail yesterday afternoon. Mrs. Ducksnorts and I are going to read through it over the weekend, and assuming everything checks out, this thing should be ready for public consumption on Monday.
Finally, if I sent you an invite to the Ducksnorts Fantasy Baseball League, please respond by 11:59 p.m. PT on Friday. If I haven’t heard from you by then, I’ll open up the remaining spots to others who have expressed an interest. Once the first league has been filled, I’ll open up the second one.
If you haven’t heard from me yet, you will be receiving an invite over the weekend. If the weekend passes and you still haven’t heard from me, then something went wrong and you’ll need to get in touch with me.
Enough of that. We’ve got linkage, and lots of it:
- Nate Ravitz at ESPN previews the Padres from a fantasy perspective (hat tip to Bip in the comments). Mostly review material here.
- Yahoo! has its preview up as well (hat tip to LynchMob in the comments). If the Padres carry Glendon Rusch as a third left-hander out of the bullpen, I’ll scream. Yessir, that’s what I’ll do.
- Jon Heyman at SI.com examines the game’s best GMs (hat tip to Rain Delay in the comments). I think he’s got Kevin Towers too low, but I’m biased.
- News flash: Kevin Cameron is a freak (Hardball Times, hat tip to Masticore317 in the comments).
- Jake Peavy and Heath Bell are kinda freakish as well.
- Hey, look, Corey Brock likes Loverboy. Oh, wait; I like ABBA. Never mind.
- The Padres have established a working agreement with the Nippon Ham Fighters, whatever that means. Isn’t Terrmel Sledge a Ham Fighter? It’s already paying dividends.
- Chase Headley talks about his transition to left field and the workout regimen that has added 30 pounds to his frame since he was drafted (hat tip to Phantom in the comments).
- Even Shawn Estes is optimistic in February (hat tip to Phantom in the comments). Estes was outstanding in 1997. So were Chan Ho Park and Ismael Valdez.
- Heath Bell worked very hard in 2007 and he doesn’t mind (hat tip to Phantom in the comments).
- Chris Young discusses last year’s injuries and what he’s doing to minimize the risk of future DL trips (hat tip to Phantom in the comments).
- Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus reveals his top 11 Padres prospects (hat tip to Tom Waits in the comments). Drew Miller at #4 is gutsy, as is Drew Cumberland at #6. There’s a good chance both will end up in my top 10 next year, but I don’t have enough data to make that call just yet. That’s the difference between Goldstein and me, of course; he’s way more informed than I am.
- The Swinging Friar is a new Padres blog on the block. One of his first posts is an interview with the U-T’s Tom Krasovic (hat tip to U-T Padresblog via Phantom in the comments). I’ve added this one to the blogroll as well as to PadreBlogs.com. Stop by and say hey.
- Preston Gomez at Sacrifice Bunt launches an epic rant.
- The Padres didn’t get the memo about 2008 being a season to punt. Wait, did I just throw a football metaphor in there? Bad blogger!
- The team isn’t expecting much from Cesar Carrillo this year. What else is new…
- MB at Friar Forecast re-examines the 1998 Cy Young Award.
- Kirk Kenney at the U-T chats with Tony Gwynn about the Aztecs (hat tip to Gaslamp Ball) and why SDSU’s program hasn’t been able to achieve the same level of success that crosstown rival USD has.
- Shortstop Christian Colon, drafted but not signed by the Padres in 2007, discusses his decision to attend Cal State Fullerton, alma mater of Mark Kotsay and Phil Nevin.
- Feel-good story on ex-Padre Doug Brocail.
- Feel-good story on current Padre Justin Hampson.
- Joe Posnanski talks about, um, I dunno (hat tip to Didi in the comments). Three things: First off, Posnanski is one funny dude; second, the Padres pitching coach is not Darren Baisley, but Darren Balsley (not singling out Posnanski here, but on a general note, it bugs me that folks outside of San Diego have no idea who this guy is); third, the reference to Jason Alexander dancing reminded me of this video.
Man, that was too many links. Still, if you’re a real glutton, we’ve got more linky goodness over at del.icio.us. Rock on…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
February 22, 2008 at 8:14 am
No worries on the Abba love. I was absolutely enamored with Ace of Base when I was 12.
You got the originial Swedish import, I got the repacakged material
February 22, 2008 at 8:27 am
Wish I could join you guys…
In case anyone is interested, Dan Agonistes addressed KG’s defensive things…I have been guilty of pointing to numbers and making the claim that KG was a “Flashy Chris Gomez”. I also, in my defense, have said that he was much better last year than any year previously. Dan Agonistes said this about his defense:
“For the record I have Greene at:
2003 +0 (very small sample)
2004 +9
2005 +1
2006 +10
2007 +16
…which compares pretty favorably with UZR
2003 -1 (very small sample)
2004 +10
2005 +3
2006 +7
2007 +6 (half season)
And so based on these I would consider him a “plus defender” (I don’t have the Plus/Minus numbers handy but certainly that system rates him lower than SFR and UZR). FRAA, however, has him at…
2003 -1
2004 -7
2005 -12
2006 +5
2007 -8
I’m not sure what’s going on here but given that SFR and UZR agree pretty closely I would still rate him as a plus defender.”
February 22, 2008 at 8:31 am
Oh yea…if anyone is interested, here is Dan Agonistes’ webblog:
http://danagonistes.blogspot.com/
You may know him from BP or Hardball Times.
February 22, 2008 at 8:53 am
2: It’s wierd that FRAA ranks him so negatively compared to the other two metrics. Weird.
I cannot wait for ST games to start. I think the Pads have a charity game next Thurs/Fri.
February 22, 2008 at 9:04 am
re: ABBA … I assume you’ve seen this then …
http://www.mamma-mia.com/
… a very fun show! It’ll be showing up in Thousand Oaks, CA from 13 - 18 May 2008.
February 22, 2008 at 9:13 am
Off topic, but…
One of my best friends from high school (Carlsbad HS), Eric Zumbrunnen, won an MTV Video Award for “Best Editing” for this video in 2001 ( http://www.mtv.com/onair/vma01/winners/index.html ). He’s worked a lot with Spike Jonze, first on music videos and then feature films ( http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0958641/ ).
February 22, 2008 at 9:14 am
#4: Yeah, we saw it in SD a while back. The mom was great, but the lead’s voice was a little nasally for my taste. Still, fun stuff.
February 22, 2008 at 9:15 am
#6: No kidding, that’s awesome! It’s a fantastic video.
February 22, 2008 at 9:27 am
re: Heath Bell … check out 2 old items from BP … first, from *2003* …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=2496
Heath Bell, RHP, Mets, Age: 26 … Strong command indicators and 390 strikeouts in 349 career innings. A bit too many homers, but could thrive in a spacious park.
… and then this from 2005 …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=3862
Five Players to Watch in 2005, Who Will Break Out?
… I’m just saying that Heath Bell could be seen coming … and I’m glad someone in the Padre FO did just that, taking advantage of the Mets largess / blindness.
February 22, 2008 at 9:34 am
9: Can you imagine how good we’d be if the 2006 mid-season trade would have gone done, with Linebrink going to the Mets and Bell + Ollie coming to SD?
February 22, 2008 at 9:36 am
10: “gone through.” Nice.
February 22, 2008 at 10:45 am
10: I went back and found that July 31, 2006 trade thread, and it looks like most of us were underwhelmed by that particular rumor. I remember I was really hoping it wouldn’t go through. Most of us were really underwhelmed by that entire day.
9: From going back and reading the trade thread, I see you were one of the people who saw him coming. Nice call there.
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....-2006.html
February 22, 2008 at 10:48 am
Anyone see in the UT article today that Jose Ceda has apparently blossomed for the Cubs? I’m not really that sore about it, but I’m curious to know what the general perception was when that trade went down (we got Walker, by the way).
It will be interesting to see if any of the minor league guys we’ve traded away the past few years amount to anything (Rosales, Brown (moderate success), Kottaras, Ceda, Burke).
February 22, 2008 at 10:51 am
4. FRAA is such a flawed metric, that you really can’t trust it at all. Though there isn’t a lot of Defensive Metrics out there. Though John Dewans +/- is one of the better ones.
KG had a +7 last year, which was tied for 7th in the Majors.
February 22, 2008 at 11:06 am
13 … I’ve recently discussed Ceda over at madfriars.com … those guys felt at the time that it was a big mistake to trade him … and they thought KT got some advice along those lines … and so I asked them about this …
LM - What’s your view of why KT went against advice not to trade him?
MF - Tough question. I think KT had soured on some of the Latin kids who did not pan out (Fabian Jimenez, Joel Santo) with power arms that weren’t making strides. He likely lumped Ceda into the same category. Ceda, however, never had the command issues of the other guys and was always considered strong mentally. I think he did not have enough opinions advising him against it.
12 … thanks, BenB, for that link … an interesting look back!
February 22, 2008 at 11:48 am
Well, in fairness to the Ceda trade, it’s not like the Padres (or Towers) has had any problems lately getting arms for the bullpen. It would have been nice to get more than Todd Walker for him however.
Did you read the espn.com fantasy profile of the Padres? I was absolutely shocked that it actually mentioned park factors. That might have been the first time someone actually pointed out that it wasn’t the offense that was the problem last year, it was the pitching. Equally shocking is that it was written on espn.com.
February 22, 2008 at 11:54 am
FYI, as of 11 a.m., tonight’s game is still on. They will update again at 2 p.m., and I’ll post in the comments. You can also call the hotline at 619.594.7464.
February 22, 2008 at 12:47 pm
Yikes, this THT article doens’t bode well for CF this year:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....the-dough/
February 22, 2008 at 1:24 pm
12: I love Comment 179 on that thread.
February 22, 2008 at 1:25 pm
THT: Hey, I’ve got a great idea. I’ll select a bunch of players who have been injured the past few seasons and show that they are declining.
It’s a fun game, Rocco Baldelli isn’t that good anymore either.
Kind of funny that his infield article actually showed players who are realyl getting worse(minus Eric Chavez) while his outfield article didn’t have a single guy who played all year injury free…..maybe he likes Andruw Jones and Coco Crisp to include them?
February 22, 2008 at 2:29 pm
Game is on as of 2 p.m. I’m good to go if anyone else is, but I need at least one person to commit because I’m too old to sit out there and freeze my butt off by myself.
February 22, 2008 at 3:40 pm
Geoff,
I bought my ticket late last night. I am going no matter what. 760-235-9105 Chris
February 22, 2008 at 3:51 pm
#22: That works. I’ll see you there.
February 22, 2008 at 5:06 pm
Anybody going tomorrow to the game at USD? If the weather is nice I’m planning on attending.
February 22, 2008 at 5:13 pm
should be a good game! if you are looking at the Ticket Office at TG Stadium, im the guy at the left window with the red plugs in my ears.
see you here
February 22, 2008 at 5:35 pm
22 … hey, LC … long time! Say “Hi” to TG and GY for me tonight
Wish I was there … looking forward to ST games in 2 weeks!
February 22, 2008 at 7:37 pm
Geoff, I can’t access the fantasy e-mail from home, so please consider this my response. Count me in, please.
February 22, 2008 at 8:35 pm
hey GY, i think i saw you there at the game, but i wasnt able to time it well enough to get you to my window, and josh the guy on my left wasnt hearing what i was saying! i was gonna comp you in, but i’ll make sure it works out better next time…
did you see Greg Vaughn and Phil Nevin were both there tonight???
i helped greg, and Phils always my buddy when he comes to the games. (Gregs son is on the Aztecs)
sorry anyways
Ian
February 23, 2008 at 1:00 am
Wooo! Aztecs kicked their butts!! Great pitching performance by Strasburg! S D S U Aztec Fight!
February 23, 2008 at 8:01 am
#27: You got it, Lance.
#28: Ah, I wasn’t sure which one was you. I appreciate the thought; maybe another time…
#29: Yeah, Matusz was all over the place. We’ll get y’all back today.
February 23, 2008 at 8:30 am
FYI, invites have been sent for the second fantasy league.
February 23, 2008 at 12:48 pm
As per Rosenthal we may be interested in Gabe Gross. I guess he’d platoon with Hairston in LF?
I don’t mind the idea of Gross but I find it strange when we have PMac, Gerut and Headley basically able to provide the same thing (if not more).
February 23, 2008 at 1:52 pm
16: Good fantasy players tend to be pretty well informed with regard to stats.
February 23, 2008 at 9:22 pm
Here’s another link for the Friday Links:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....the-dough/
Unfortunately it includes Jim Edmonds as the CF.
February 24, 2008 at 1:31 am
Brian Giles ran: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
February 24, 2008 at 9:49 am
Nice to see the Padres are still interested in Bay…..dealing Headley for him still makes a ton of sense. Adding a legit middle of the order bat is never a bad thing.
Plus, that .350+ OBP would help a ton
February 24, 2008 at 10:41 am
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....lquiz.html
Eye catching article. Can someone tell me why you watch the top of the ball on a fly?
February 24, 2008 at 3:22 pm
32, 36: I like the idea of adding Gross to pair with Hairston. Gross would be a fine addition and could even spell Giles from time to time.
Bay also would be a great addition, but at what price? I am not sure I’d be willing to give up Headley for him.
Along those lines, no matter how optimistic I want to be with Headley, I am really not that enamored with the team’s idea to move him in to LF. One, I would like to see him continue hitting in AAA like he did last year. Two, I am concerned that if the LF thing doesn’t work out and he struggles both in the field and at the plate, the Padres could destroy a lot of his value.
The OF situation has been discussed ad nauseum, but it really is the one thing that is keeping me from truly getting excited about this team. The hasty move for Edmonds still leaves a bad taste in my mouth.
February 24, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Thwe pirates want to dump bays contract, I would think that a package of Huffman and Germano would get it done.
February 24, 2008 at 5:31 pm
Guess what’s now available:
http://www.lulu.com/content/2053671
Official announcement tomorrow morning.
February 24, 2008 at 6:48 pm
41 Will you have books with you 3/6-3/9?
February 24, 2008 at 7:26 pm
40: Nice, Geoff! Is it OK if I go ahead and buy some before the official announcement?
February 24, 2008 at 7:29 pm
#41: That is the plan. The shipment should arrive in time.
#42: Yessir, those who participate in the comments are always rewarded.
February 24, 2008 at 7:30 pm
43: Exxxxxcellent (steepling fingers).
February 24, 2008 at 9:03 pm
39: Unless the Padres pick up all of Bay’s contract, that deal is not nearly enough. We all know that the Padres always try and get salary relief.
40: Congrats on the book Geoff!
February 24, 2008 at 11:21 pm
40 … got it! Very nice forward by MattV! And I love that he points to your comments about game #163 … and that you comments on that game include this …
… if home plate umpire Tim McClelland hadn’t guessed whether Holliday touched the plate on the regular season’s final play…
… well said, GY, well said!
OT … BP’s PECOTA doesn’t predict 2008 success for Chase Headley … 205 PAs, .231 AVG, .315 OBP, .390 SLG … ug … I think that’s understated … at least I hope it is …
February 24, 2008 at 11:28 pm
40 … quick question for you, GY … how can Gary Sheffield be a “comp” for Chip Ambres? That seems incredible …
February 24, 2008 at 11:31 pm
GY- Awesome stuff, and I love Matt’s forward. I bought two copies this year - one for the impatient person in me. The other to go on my bookshelf with all of my other cherished baseball tomes.
February 24, 2008 at 11:54 pm
Thanks, guys; glad to hear you’re enjoying it so far!
#47: The way these comps should be read is “Ambres was to the PCL in 2007 as Sheffield was to MLB in 2007.” There is no predictive value in them whatsoever.
February 25, 2008 at 6:39 am
The new Ducksnorts Annuals are here! The new Ducksnorts Annuals are here!
February 25, 2008 at 8:42 am
50 … you, sir, are a ducksnorty jerk … i *like* it!!!
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0079367/quotes
February 25, 2008 at 8:56 am
51: Not my favorite line from the movie, but the only appropriate one.
Had to be sure to change my name back, although I’m sure there are some who feel that The Jerk would be more descriptive.
February 25, 2008 at 9:11 am
#52: You could take a little poetic license: “That’s all I need. The ashtray, the remote control, the paddle game, this book and the chair.” I’d be honored to have the Annual mentioned with those other fine objects.
February 25, 2008 at 9:18 am
53: And I don’t need one other thing, except my dog.
(Dog Barks Angrily)
I don’t need my dog.
This is totally OT, and I’m sure she owes much of it to modern medicine, but 60 year old Bernadette Peters looks awfully good.
February 25, 2008 at 10:40 am
49 … thanks … now i see the massive caveat on page 88 … missed that on my first glance thru the book following download … so … now i wonder how much of a help or distraction that is … for “comps” to players whose 2007 was significantly down from their peak performance, it’s going to be a distraction … i’ll see if i get used to it as i spend more time with this section of the book …
btw, i posted a comment at gaslampball pointing to lulu … i’ll shoot off a few emails … let’s spread the word!
February 25, 2008 at 10:50 am
#55: Cool. I’d love to hear your thoughts after you’ve had a chance to “live with” the concept for a while. May be that this needs tweaking. Everything is open to rethinking.
And thanks for getting the word out for me. As always, it’s much appreciated!
February 25, 2008 at 2:27 pm
College Update:
After taking two of three from USD, San Diego State has debuted in BA’s top 25 ranking at #22. USD dropped to #17 from #11.
Game 4 is going on right now, SDSU 2 USD 0 Bot. 1.
February 25, 2008 at 3:14 pm
57 … go get ‘em, TG!
The gaslampball dudes recently posted the link to this UT article …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....zbase.html
… which is a no-fluff Q&A with the SDSU coach.
February 25, 2008 at 3:16 pm
57 … oh, and btw, there’s probably and extra spot that’s going to open up in the Top 25 … Oregon State didn’t look good over the weekend … so … unless Arizona State is a runaway #1 (which they might be), OSU’s likely currently overrated … but then again, I thought that last year at this time also … Go Beavs!
February 25, 2008 at 3:52 pm
Update:
SDSU 3 USD 0 Bot. 6
February 25, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Tony Gwynn’s boys have taken 3 of 4. Game 4 SDSU 7 USD 1, FINAL.