Comments on: Spring Training and Book Updates http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html Blogging the San Diego Padres baseball club. Established 1997. Sat, 22 Nov 2008 11:41:03 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Pat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138336 Pat Fri, 11 Jan 2008 01:53:16 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138336 MB, I see the distinction you're making and I think it's a completely viable reading. Thanks for sharing your insights. Man, this is so cool having a place to intelligently discuss not only the Padres, but baseball as a whole! I propose this as the new subtitle, "Ducksnorts, it's more than just a Padres blog!" :-)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138336">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> MB, I see the distinction you’re making and I think it’s a completely viable reading. Thanks for sharing your insights.

Man, this is so cool having a place to intelligently discuss not only the Padres, but baseball as a whole!

I propose this as the new subtitle,

“Ducksnorts, it’s more than just a Padres blog!” :-)

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]]> By: LynchMob http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138323 LynchMob Fri, 11 Jan 2008 01:04:45 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138323 25 ... one of those links includes an Enzo Hernandez reference ... http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=worstseasons/080110 :-)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138323">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 25 … one of those links includes an Enzo Hernandez reference …

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....ons/080110

:-)

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]]> By: LynchMob http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138321 LynchMob Fri, 11 Jan 2008 00:59:24 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138321 24 ... agree'd ... it's well done ... thanks for the link ... which has links to similar articles for other sports ... always a good topic ...<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138321">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 24 … agree’d … it’s well done … thanks for the link … which has links to similar articles for other sports … always a good topic …

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]]> By: Kevin http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138273 Kevin Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:40:33 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138273 http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/columns/story?columnist=neyer_rob&id=3187711 Rob Neyer did this list the way it should be, I think, instead of picking 10 different players just to be interesting.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138273">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3187711

Rob Neyer did this list the way it should be, I think, instead of picking 10 different players just to be interesting.

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]]> By: LynchMob http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138271 LynchMob Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:32:44 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138271 Clearly "moneyball" does generate conversation :-) Here's a followup Q&A from the same KG chat ... Michael Lewis (Scottsdale): Isn't the Moneyball philosophy about arbitrage and not drafting college players? Moneyball is about exploiting undervalued assets in the market. If the same risks can be achieved at lower costs, you have an obligation to exploit the inefficiency in the market. Quick example to drive the point home, if you have two players of the same caliber but one is from the Northern hemisphere and the other is from the Southern hemisphere. However, the market is requiring a larger payout for the player from the southern hemisphere, does it not make sense to acquire the player from the north with the same risk profile? Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, yeah. Look we all understand what it's ABOUT, but let's face it, the second I said 'Moneyball draft' you knew EXACTLY what I was talking about, so while it doesn't fit the definition to perfection, and may even be a misnomer, you still got it, and see it was communicated effectively. ... and then later ... KG: What is up with the Moneyball fanboys? I have like 12 200-word diatribe's on it in the que. Stop it. You're grasping onto old technology. ... and then finally ... Nick (Chicago): "Michael Lewis (the dale): Listen, I get your point and it is well taken. I believe that both traditional scouting and advanced statistics can live in perfect harmony. I believe the combination of both can produce superior results. Agree? Kevin Goldstein: For the most part. " WTF? Which part do you not agree with? Kevin Goldstein: I just think you need to have a constantly adjusting balance going. The lower you go, the less statistics mean -- and for some players they can be all but meaningless. I can't think of any level or situation where scouting reports are meaningless. Both are important, but both aren't always important. Man, I'm just asking for a full inbox here. FYI.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138271">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Clearly “moneyball” does generate conversation :-)

Here’s a followup Q&A from the same KG chat …

Michael Lewis (Scottsdale): Isn’t the Moneyball philosophy about arbitrage and not drafting college players? Moneyball is about exploiting undervalued assets in the market. If the same risks can be achieved at lower costs, you have an obligation to exploit the inefficiency in the market. Quick example to drive the point home, if you have two players of the same caliber but one is from the Northern hemisphere and the other is from the Southern hemisphere. However, the market is requiring a larger payout for the player from the southern hemisphere, does it not make sense to acquire the player from the north with the same risk profile?

Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, yeah. Look we all understand what it’s ABOUT, but let’s face it, the second I said ‘Moneyball draft’ you knew EXACTLY what I was talking about, so while it doesn’t fit the definition to perfection, and may even be a misnomer, you still got it, and see it was communicated effectively.

… and then later …

KG: What is up with the Moneyball fanboys? I have like 12 200-word diatribe’s on it in the que. Stop it. You’re grasping onto old technology.

… and then finally …

Nick (Chicago): “Michael Lewis (the dale): Listen, I get your point and it is well taken. I believe that both traditional scouting and advanced statistics can live in perfect harmony. I believe the combination of both can produce superior results. Agree? Kevin Goldstein: For the most part. ” WTF? Which part do you not agree with?

Kevin Goldstein: I just think you need to have a constantly adjusting balance going. The lower you go, the less statistics mean — and for some players they can be all but meaningless. I can’t think of any level or situation where scouting reports are meaningless. Both are important, but both aren’t always important. Man, I’m just asking for a full inbox here.

FYI.

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]]> By: Tom Waits http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138269 Tom Waits Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:31:55 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138269 20: That sounds pretty fair to me. The Moneyball Draft (not Moneyball in general) wasn't so much about finding undervalued players. It was about players who were fixed or limited in value. The real leveraging came after the draft, when some of those college kids put up good numbers immediately and were traded for players who were worth more to Oakland.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138269">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 20: That sounds pretty fair to me. The Moneyball Draft (not Moneyball in general) wasn’t so much about finding undervalued players. It was about players who were fixed or limited in value. The real leveraging came after the draft, when some of those college kids put up good numbers immediately and were traded for players who were worth more to Oakland.

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]]> By: MB http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138266 MB Thu, 10 Jan 2008 22:29:13 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138266 Pat, I see what you're saying. I think there'a a moneyball approach to the draft and then there's, perhaps, a more sabermetric approach to the draft. Both are pretty related, but not exactly the same. The sabermetric component is evaluating players with stats (adjusted and whathaveyou), maybe comparing how past picks have performed, projections, etc. The moneyball component is looking at what's over/underrated in the market. Anyway, I think Beane would have drafted high schoolers, but at the time, and due to the economic situation in Oakland, he felt going with mostly college kids was a better approach. I don't really know where I'm going here. I believe there was a study on BP a while back by Rany Jazayerli showing that high schoolers were a lot more successful than many statheads thought, but I don't exactly remember. I think now that a lot of teams have caught onto the stats/college players thing, like the Padres, drafting high school players may be the new moneyball approach. Obviously, this is just my off the cuff opinion, and it's probably a place where some good research could be done (and I'm sure already is/has).<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138266">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Pat, I see what you’re saying. I think there’a a moneyball approach to the draft and then there’s, perhaps, a more sabermetric approach to the draft. Both are pretty related, but not exactly the same. The sabermetric component is evaluating players with stats (adjusted and whathaveyou), maybe comparing how past picks have performed, projections, etc. The moneyball component is looking at what’s over/underrated in the market.

Anyway, I think Beane would have drafted high schoolers, but at the time, and due to the economic situation in Oakland, he felt going with mostly college kids was a better approach.

I don’t really know where I’m going here. I believe there was a study on BP a while back by Rany Jazayerli showing that high schoolers were a lot more successful than many statheads thought, but I don’t exactly remember.

I think now that a lot of teams have caught onto the stats/college players thing, like the Padres, drafting high school players may be the new moneyball approach. Obviously, this is just my off the cuff opinion, and it’s probably a place where some good research could be done (and I’m sure already is/has).

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]]> By: Pat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138256 Pat Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:57:13 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138256 18: I disagree, MB, or rather I think that is not a full enough definition. While undervalued is certainly a component, drafting more mature players who have a statisitical and measurable track record is a bigger part, imo. This is why Beane was against drafting high school pitchers, because they had no real record to measure their performance and were hence unprojectable. iow, drafting a high school player was a total crap shoot whereas drafting a college player who had 2 or 3 years of verifiable statistics was more reasonable. Just my .02.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138256">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 18: I disagree, MB, or rather I think that is not a full enough definition. While undervalued is certainly a component, drafting more mature players who have a statisitical and measurable track record is a bigger part, imo. This is why Beane was against drafting high school pitchers, because they had no real record to measure their performance and were hence unprojectable. iow, drafting a high school player was a total crap shoot whereas drafting a college player who had 2 or 3 years of verifiable statistics was more reasonable. Just my .02.

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]]> By: Field39 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138255 Field39 Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:46:32 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138255 Maybe the idea has not panned out, or maybe the A's and Jays do not have the proper analysis tools. One thing to keep in mind, is that Oakland lost their original analyst in 2004.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138255">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Maybe the idea has not panned out, or maybe the A’s and Jays do not have the proper analysis tools. One thing to keep in mind, is that Oakland lost their original analyst in 2004.

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]]> By: MB http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138254 MB Thu, 10 Jan 2008 21:45:43 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2008/01/spring-training-and-book-updates.html#comment-138254 To me, the "moneyball way of drafting" isn't a dead issue and it never will be. Of course, the moneyball way of drafting really isn't drafting college players, it's drafting players who are underrated/undervalued at the time. (or what CM pretty much just said). Silly comment by Goldstein, I think. Then again, you can always get people talking when you say moneyball ...<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-138254">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> To me, the “moneyball way of drafting” isn’t a dead issue and it never will be. Of course, the moneyball way of drafting really isn’t drafting college players, it’s drafting players who are underrated/undervalued at the time. (or what CM pretty much just said).

Silly comment by Goldstein, I think. Then again, you can always get people talking when you say moneyball …

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