OBG08: Kevin Kouzmanoff

Kevin KouzmanoffDidi, Sandra (Mrs. Ducksnorts), and I checked out FriarFest on Saturday. We couldn’t stay long, but it was nice to get out of the house for a while. (The book project is making me completely mental, I must say.)

I’m happy to report that when I threw a pitch in the visitors bullpen, it arrived in the catcher’s mitt without first stopping to bounce in the dirt. I felt proud and somewhat pathetic, all at the same time.

I also lost my cell phone. Big thanks to a gentleman named Scott who found and returned it to me on Sunday. It’s troubling how dependent I’ve become on that device.

Moving onto the main event, what might be in store for third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff? In terms of projecting Kouz’s future performance, I’m inclined to ignore the first six or so weeks of 2007 and chalk it up to an adjustment period that he won’t need to repeat. With that in mind, I’ll set the bar fairly high: 600 PA, .289/.343/.482.

Am I crazy?

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43 Responses »

  1. 585 PA’s .302/.350/.475

    Hey GY at the end of the year are you going to post who had the best predictions for each player?

  2. Maybe I’m overly optimistic, but I really expect Kouz to post a higher SLG this year.

    615 PAs .297/.352/.503

  3. 1 … SteveC … how do propose that that be determined? If somebody provides a good way to do this, I *might* be able, over the course of the summer/season, to get the predictions entered into a spreadsheet so that some analysis/ranking could be done.

  4. #1, 3: I’m keeping a spreadsheet, which will be made public after we’ve gone through all the players. I’m actually more interested in how we do as a group compared to other systems, but I don’t see why we can’t revisit individual guesses while we’re at it. Good call!

  5. I don’t think any of those are overly optimistic, ignoring April, Kouz hit .303/.355/.504. I’m going be an optimist and guess he improves a little on that to

    585 PA’s .306/.360/.513

  6. .322/.400/.626 – 612 PAs

  7. 611 PA’s .288/.360/.498

    But I would not be shocked to see higher…

  8. I was planning on taking the over with Kouz…but it seems like Stephen might be a family member or something.

    Mark me down for:

    600AB’s .315/.370/.525

    Which would be close to a historic season in Petco, I do think this is the year when we see the park play a little better for hitters as more development is finished and the wind currents move closer to what the models(no, not those kind of models) originally said they would be.

  9. With seven precincts reporting so far, we’ve got Kouz at 601 PA, .303/.362/.517. That’s about the same as what we’ve got for Adrian.

  10. I love Kouz, but I’m a pessimist. I’ll go with some improvement over his overall line last year, but not quite as good as his May to end of the season stats. I also think he’ll miss a little time to injury.

    573 PA, .281/.335/.477. Still a good season.

  11. Check this out:


    OK, Kouz. He’ll get into some slump at some point but then get back up.
    Also, I seem to recall the team off to slow start in April (slower than I like) so I’m not going to shoot over the moon with the numbers even if Kouz has proven to be resilient and not let his numbers bothered him too much. Can he do it again if he gets into a slump in his sophomore season? I hope so.

    565 PA, .278/.355/.492 would be a very good season.

  12. A Little OT, but Brian Bannister in an interview with MLBTR lists 3 Padres pitchers as being successful due to the ability to deceive, Peavy, Young & Maddux. Interesting interview.


  13. 12: Good call. That Q & A is truly engrossing. Especially his thoughts on BABIP and how a pitcher can affect it.

    This is completely OT, but of all the players I spoke with at FriarFest this weekend, I was really impressed by Chase Headley. He seems very down-to-earth, but eager. When I asked him how LF was, he simply responded, “big”. I’m kind of torn about whether or not it would be more beneficial for him to play full-time in Portland instead of platooning in San Diego, but I think he’s ready to play and ready to contribute.

  14. 12: Thanks for the heads up, that’s a great interview. Bannister sounds like a smart kid who’s intellectually learned the lessons that used to take years for pitchers to soak up by osmosis and intuition. It’s exciting to see sabermetric ideas finally filtering down to the players.

    13: Did you speak with Matt Antonelli? I was really impressed with him when he was on 1090 last week. I try not to get too worked up over prospects but it seems like the Padres have a couple of good ones in Antonelli and Headley.

  15. 13 … re: talking to Chase … I talked to him briefly at Peoria during Spring Training 2006 … (HINT: if you’re thinking of going to ST, do it!) … he was just walking from 1 field to another and it seemed like I was the only one there that knew who he was … he said then he was surprised how tired he got at the end of the 2005 season after playing his final year of college ball and then the short-season at Eugene … a good kid, indeed … he is, and will be, easy to root for. I hope the Padres are good enough for him to start the season at Portland, that there will be no need to hope that he’s MLB-ready, but rather that they can wait until they are sure he’s MLB-ready. (Same for Antonelli)

  16. 14: Sadly, I did not get to speak to Antonelli. My wife managed to get his autograph for the both of us, but I was hooked up to a blood bag when he and Adrian were at the blood drive. My timing was just such that I missed being able to speak with both of them.

    I also was able to speak to Colt Morton a bit casually during the blood drive, and he also seems like a good kid. I asked him if he’s going to start the season in Portland, and he was just kind of like, “I’ll go wherever they send me.” I’d love to see him break out in a big way this season. We badly need a credible catching prospect.

    Germano also had a great sense of humor. He very candidly admitted that the league made adjustments to him ( I kind of felt like a dick asking him why he thought he had less success after his first five starts, but he was cool with it.) I asked him what his goals were for the season and he responded “Staying with the team.” He then continued to say that he’d also love to win 15 games, but for now, he’d just like to stay with the team. I mentioned something about him coming from Philly and he seemed to be relieved to be out of there.

  17. I would LOVE to see Kooz hit .289 (assuming I keep him for fantasy purposes). The main question for him is which one is the “Real” Kouzmanoff.

    Is he the one that looked like he was swinging at bee bees at the beginning of the year…or is he the guy who knocked the snot out of everything at the end of the year.

    personally, I’m expecting .280, 22 HR, 85 RBI

  18. .290/.343/.480

    600 PA’s i dont think hes much of an injury risk, hopefully he keep the SO’s down

  19. 12: That’s an awesome interview. Thanks. I can see why Bannister is one of Joe Poz favorite now.

    16: Thanks for the chat recap, man.

  20. I’m not going to make a prediction for Kouzmanoff but I will point out that his season had some similarities to Adrian’s first year with the Padres. Both guys had some struggles but showed very clearly that they have the ability to make adjustments. I think Kouz will have a similar 2008 to Adrian’s 2007: Better power, maybe some problems making contact as the league continues to force him to adjust.

    OK, I will make a prediction after all: .270/.325/.490, 25 HRs. I think the league has learned that you can’t leave in a lefty to face Kouzmanoff so that might hurt him a little. I think (hope) we’ll see a little defensive improvement as well.

    I think we have a legitimate shot at 3 infielders with 25+ homeruns each, which is pretty impressive considering the Petco effect.

  21. 620 PA, .280/.345/.505 for Mr. Kouzmanoff. If he could get that .280 closer to .300, that’d be outstanding.

  22. Need to relax and smile a little, go here:


  23. BTW, being my first time at the Friarfest, it was a great day.
    I was so happy to be on the field, just kicking dirt, touching the perfectly manicured grass, it was so silly. I believe Geoff and Sandra can attest to the stupid smile I had.