OBG08: Adrian Gonzalez
Sat, Jan 26, 2008
by Geoff Young
The season’s almost here, so I guess it’s time to start posting on weekends again. In case you missed it, we’re doing community projections for the 2008 Padres. Today’s entrant is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.
Gonzalez lost 22 points off his batting average from 2006 to 2007 but saw his raw on-base skills and power improve. He also came on strong down the stretch last year. Gonzalez turns 26 a month or so into the season, and although Petco Park hurts his game, I don’t think we’ve seen his best yet. I’ll say 675 PA, .294/.357/.506, and that might be too conservative.
You know the routine. Lay it on me…
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January 26, 2008 at 7:51 am
We are close Jeff…I think AGon is just discovering his power. That revelation came to me last ST when I sat and watched him clear the CF fence in Peoria during a game…That is a frigg’n moon shot. I had never seen him hit a ball like that. So, with that little story shared, I am seeing an ave about the same as last year, but a little bigger bump in his obp and slg.
645 PA’s .285/.358/.515
January 26, 2008 at 8:02 am
665 PA’s .301/.365/.520
What’s wrong with wishful thinking? It’s a possibility….
January 26, 2008 at 10:44 am
620 PA’s .312/.375/.510 I guess im pretty optomistic I think Adian will have a really high OBP at home and a high slugging % on the road and put togetehr an all-star year.
January 26, 2008 at 11:06 am
#1: I remember that blast. It totally changed my perception of his ability.
#2, 3: Those are both well within reach, IMHO.
January 26, 2008 at 11:19 am
1: I was at that game too last year vs the ChiSox. That was a hell of a blast.
The kid is easily a 30 HR 100 RBI guy every year. He is entering his prime and has one of the sweetest swings in baseball.
650 PA .310/.370/.515
January 26, 2008 at 12:33 pm
And I believe that Agon will cut down on the strikeouts as well. He slumps terribly at times but a rest or two during the season will help.
January 26, 2008 at 12:38 pm
Y’all got me pumped up about Adrian. I didn’t get to see him at all last year.
I’ll guess 625 PA’s .295/.370/.515
January 26, 2008 at 1:05 pm
I think we might see some dropoff by AGon after playing in practically every game last year: 600 PAs .255/.340/.440
January 26, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I’ll go 700 PA (he got 720! last year), .287/.359/.524. Continued power development, increased walk rate.
January 26, 2008 at 1:17 pm
Talk in Dallas is that a Marlon Byrd - Matt Murton swap with ChiCubs is practically a done deal.
January 26, 2008 at 1:35 pm
700 PA .295/.365/.545
Were Gonzalez and Ryan Howard to switch ballparks, who do you think would be viewed as the better hitter?
January 26, 2008 at 1:50 pm
640 PA, .320/.380/.505
Dude is the truth.
January 26, 2008 at 1:57 pm
680 PA .300-.365-.525
January 26, 2008 at 2:58 pm
.288/.355/.499, 630 PA
January 26, 2008 at 3:13 pm
Re: 8 Brian can I ask why you think his numbers will drop that much?
January 26, 2008 at 3:58 pm
I don’t think Brian realizes how much of a drop that really is…in fact for a guy in his 3rd year that would be a historic drop.
I think AGon figures out Petco a little bit this year and continues to mash on the road:
650 AB’s .288/.353/.540
Check out Howard’s splits….the guy is equally distructive both home and away. He’s a more valuable hitter then Adrian because of what is about a 50 point difference in OBP.
January 26, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Here’s what we’ve got so far with 13 precincts reporting: 652 PA, .295/.363/.512.
January 26, 2008 at 5:31 pm
16- I didn’t look at the numbers prior to my post- it was just food for thought, and I of course expected Howard’s numbers to be substantially better at home.
Now that I’ve checked baseball reference, I’m shocked that Howard has hit almost exactly the same at home and away for his career.
Gonzalez’s 2007 home: .266/.335/.424
road: .295/.358/.570
While it’s clear that Petco masks A-Gon’s status as an elite hitter, Howard’s better.
January 26, 2008 at 7:07 pm
A-Gon is clearly better than Holliday on the road. Holliday: .301/.374/.485
re 8:
How would his slugging drop 62 points? How would last year’s 161 games matter this year? Fatigue doesn’t carry over from one season to the next. It hurts players in August and September.
January 26, 2008 at 7:09 pm
Prince Fielder on road: .276/.369/.572, about the same as A-Gon.
January 26, 2008 at 9:32 pm
I’ve never been one to
January 26, 2008 at 9:34 pm
I’ve never been one to overvalue a firstbaseman’s defensive contributions, but I’m reasonable sure that Adrian’s superiority with the leather narrows the gap between he and Fielder or Howard considerably.
January 26, 2008 at 9:36 pm
Dunno what happened with that last comment. Damned thing posted prematurely the first time.
January 26, 2008 at 9:57 pm
A-Gon next season: .295/.359/.518 in 610 plate appearances.
January 26, 2008 at 10:16 pm
Also, Lance: NL road slugging leaders last season:
Gonzalez was ninth at .570, but the three players in front of him — Fielder, Beltran, Berkman — slugged between .570 and .572.
Chipper, Pujols, Soriano, Braun and Howard were the only hitters clearly ahead of him.
Road home runs: Gonzalez tied for sixth.
Road doubles: Gonzalez first with 32, three ahead of Greene in second.
Road runs: Gonzalez tied for seventh
Road hits: Gonzalez tied for fifth
Road RBI: Gonzalez second behind Howard. Greene fifth.
Road OPS: Gonzalez 10th, Giles 19th, Greene 29th.
This is a fun game.
Basically, the theme here is: Gonzalez is one of the top sluggers 10 sluggers in the league and an MVP candidate.
January 27, 2008 at 5:29 am
re 19:
Road stats are of course a good rough and ready way of avoiding bias due to home park effects, but we need to be careful not to import a new if smaller bias, especially when comparing players within the NL West. Of Holliday’s <81 road games last year 9 (or 10, was it?) will have been at Petco, none in Denver; and the other way round for a Padre; except for that their opportunities should be broadly similar.
I suppose there may be a website that gives us the road park effects for individual teams or players, but if so it’s not one I look at. Anyone know of such a thing?
January 27, 2008 at 9:46 am
I say 650 PA’s, .285/.350/.540
January 27, 2008 at 7:17 pm
[...] Young, over at Ducksnorts, projects the 2008 numbers of 1B Adrian Gonzalez. I disagree with his .294/.357/.506 prediction being too conservative. If [...]
January 27, 2008 at 8:32 pm
620 PA’s, .296/.363/.535
January 28, 2008 at 7:08 am
600 PAs .285/.350/.550
Love how he finished last year. A day off every 8-10 games during the summer might keep him fresher through the dog days. Another reason to acquire X Nady.
January 28, 2008 at 1:23 pm
.290/.385/.530
i say he takes more walks this year and sees his OBP go wayyyy up
590 PA’s as Black will rest him only a little bit more this year
January 30, 2008 at 12:53 pm
.290/.350/.490
January 30, 2008 at 12:54 pm
620 PA