2008 January

Archive for January 2008

OBG08: Chase Headley

Thursday, January 31, 2008
by Geoff Young

Before we get started, I've got a new article up at Hardball Times that takes a look back at what Bill James once predicted for the future of Barry Bonds. As they say, it's interesting if you're interested in that sort of thing. Moving on, let's talk about Chase Headley. Far be it from someone named "Geoff" to run smack on another person's name, but doesn't "Chase Headley" sound like a soap opera character? He would wear cardigan sweaters, hunt pheasant, and say things like, "Do fetch me some champagne, dear boy." Anyway, the real Chase Headley ...

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Posted in Projections | 70 Comments »

OBG08: Scott Hairston

Wednesday, January 30, 2008
by Geoff Young

By now you've heard that the Minnesota Twins have agreed to trade left-hander Johan Santana to the Mets for Carlos Gomez, Phil Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Beyond the obvious impact this will have on the balance of power in the National League, there's an important lesson here for those who would trade Khalil Greene simply for the sake of trading him. Do you see the name of Philip Hughes anywhere in the list of players coming to Minnesota? I don't, and that's a problem. Greene wouldn't fetch such a ...

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Posted in Projections | 42 Comments »

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OBG08: Khalil Greene

Tuesday, January 29, 2008
by Geoff Young

I wonder if anyone has an opinion about Khalil Greene? As has been discussed at great length (most recently by MB at Friar Forecast), Petco Park kills Greene's offensive game above and beyond what we might expect. The good news, at least from a forecaster's perspective, is that Greene pretty much does the same thing every year. So long as he remains with the Padres, and assuming the flukish injuries that dogged him before last year are behind him, expect more of the same. I'll say 600 PA, .251/.302/.456. If he somehow ends ...

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Posted in Projections | 63 Comments »

OBG08: Kevin Kouzmanoff

Monday, January 28, 2008
by Geoff Young

Didi, Sandra (Mrs. Ducksnorts), and I checked out FriarFest on Saturday. We couldn't stay long, but it was nice to get out of the house for a while. (The book project is making me completely mental, I must say.) I'm happy to report that when I threw a pitch in the visitors bullpen, it arrived in the catcher's mitt without first stopping to bounce in the dirt. I felt proud and somewhat pathetic, all at the same time. I also lost my cell phone. Big thanks to a gentleman named Scott who found and returned it to me on Sunday. It's troubling how dependent I've become ...

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Posted in Projections | 43 Comments »

OBG08: Tadahito Iguchi

Sunday, January 27, 2008
by Geoff Young

Next up in our community projections is newcomer Tadahito Iguchi. The veteran second baseman possesses a broad base of offensive skills, but his power has declined each year since he arrived in North America. Iguchi is 33 and will play half his games in a park that suppresses offense, which suggests that a reversal of this trend is unlikely. I'll go with 550 PA, .263/.343/.391. What sayest thou?

Posted in Projections | 23 Comments »

OBG08: Adrian Gonzalez

Saturday, January 26, 2008
by Geoff Young

The season's almost here, so I guess it's time to start posting on weekends again. In case you missed it, we're doing community projections for the 2008 Padres. Today's entrant is first baseman Adrian Gonzalez. Gonzalez lost 22 points off his batting average from 2006 to 2007 but saw his raw on-base skills and power improve. He also came on strong down the stretch last year. Gonzalez turns 26 a month or so into the season, and although Petco Park hurts his game, I don't think we've seen his best yet. I'll say 675 PA, .294/.357/.506, and that might be too conservative. You know the routine. Lay ...

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Posted in Projections | 33 Comments »

Friday Links (25 Jan 08)

Friday, January 25, 2008
by Geoff Young

Before we hit the links, a quick reminder that FriarFest is this weekend. I went last year and it freakin' rocked. Anywho... Sdpads1 continues his reflection on the Petco Park era by examining the relationship between a team's payroll and its on-field success. This line of inquiry fascinates me, and Sdpads1's findings shouldn't surprise anyone who has been paying attention. Still, it's always nice to see what we think we know supported by actual evidence. MB wonders who will win the Khalil Greene arbitration case and offers some thoughts on what Greene might be worth. Speaking of arbitration, reader Phantom points ...

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Posted in Notes and Links | 45 Comments »