Thu, Dec 20, 2007
by Geoff Young
My latest article, about a crazy night in Houston back in ‘89, is up at Hardball Times. The game in question doesn’t involve our favorite team, although a few then-future-Padres played in it.
Enjoy…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
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December 20, 2007 at 7:17 am
Jack, this comment is offered for you, since SA was on XX radio last night and he was talking about Matt. He said they don’t want to make another position change with him, but they may have to. In hindsight, maybe the should have moved him to center last year, instead of second, since there wasn’t anyone coming up through the farm to man center. There is no question that they think highly of Matt.
He also said that Headley will be here in San Diego next year. No conditions, hedges or balks. Hairston, Headley and Matt are all in town in January to take fly balls.
December 20, 2007 at 7:49 am
Matt got a call that they might send him to San Diego for some fly balls IF they didnt sign someone like edmonds. So we dont know whats going on. I still dont understand why he has to be moved again.
December 20, 2007 at 8:03 am
Looks like Ficky is back!
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
December 20, 2007 at 8:05 am
Jenkins to Philly:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3162819
December 20, 2007 at 8:07 am
3: Fick better not get into any more bar fights with Peavy….
December 20, 2007 at 8:14 am
Geoff: nice article on that marathon. 1989 was a great year for movies, perhaps you saw Batman, Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure, Major League or Tango & Cash?
Fickie is back! Wasn’t there a rumor that he was a bad influence on Peavy and had something to do with his injured ribs?
Jenkins signed with the Phillies, 2/13M. 6.5M per year for the Phillies is like $4mil/year for us so that sounds about right. I guess that’s why Sandy was so adamant about Headley being around next year.
Maybe the KT/Iguchi lovefest the other day has them thinking about signing him long term, forcing Matt to CF. I agree with Jack though, stop moving the kid around. I’m sure he has the tools to be a decent CF but I’d really rather have a guy who’s played the outfield his whole career. It sounds like Matt is comfortable at 2B and can be a real standout there so leave him be.
December 20, 2007 at 8:17 am
Jack - I understand there is some comfort in settling at a position, but you should take the position switches as a testament to how highly they think of him. They WANT to get him in the lineup.
December 20, 2007 at 8:23 am
I don’t recall hearing about Peavy/Fick problems before. Does anyone have any information about that?
December 20, 2007 at 8:28 am
Also, SA was saying last night that they were awaiting Aki’s medical records. SA was saying they were perfectly happy with the bull pen, and excited about a couple of Rule 5 guys and didn’t see any reason to add anyone, but Aki was such a fan favorite, they felt it appropriate to at least check things out with him. SA was pretty non-committal, though.
December 20, 2007 at 9:07 am
Thx for the SA report. I would be great is MA could be a good CF, but I understand the frustration over yet another possible position change. Just thinking that our two top prospects might change positions is a little unsettling.
December 20, 2007 at 9:23 am
What a coincidence, a Dodgers journalist thinks the Dodgers have a better rotation than the Padres.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
According to this guy, we’re behind the Braves, Brewers, Dodgers, and D’backs. What a tool.
December 20, 2007 at 9:25 am
GY, I think I have a link to an SI.com article being held up…
December 20, 2007 at 9:39 am
Thanks, got it.
December 20, 2007 at 9:46 am
Re: 11 at this point the D-Backs rotation is better than the Pads, the Dodgers have the potential of being better than the Pads as well, I think braves roatiation may be very similar to the Pads and the Brewers rotation is not better than the Pads. The Pads rotation has a ton of questions:
Peavy - We all think he will be great again in 08
Young - Can he stay healthy?
Maddux - Can he do it for another year?
Wolf - How many games will he start? Will he be affective in them?
Estes? Rusch? Germano? Hensley? Other?
December 20, 2007 at 9:56 am
10 I said that this morning. I cant believe that the Padres have to take their so called top 2 prospects and have them change positions. I didnt know we had all stars at third and 2nd
December 20, 2007 at 10:00 am
I would take it as a positive if they want to move MA to the outfield. We know how much they value 2B and this may give him a better chance of sticking around the organization longer than previous 2B.
December 20, 2007 at 10:03 am
14: I’m not sold on Owings or Davis. I’d be stunned if Johnson makes more than 5 starts next year.
I think the Dodgers rotation could be better, but it also might fail spectacularly. Kuroda has never pitched in MLB, and Matsuzaka, who was supposed to be the be-all end-all, struggled a fair amount.
I agree that the D’backs have a better 1-2 than us (solely because of CY’s injury history), but I really think we have one of the better rotations in baseball. Ultimately, everyone misconstrues PETCO to be a factor in our success, and I think it’s totally weak that nobody gives our pitchers the respect they deserve.
December 20, 2007 at 10:09 am
I think Matt would do well in CF even though he has never played the outfield but why waste a full year moving him to second, so that they can sign Idguchi If Matt cant be a better player than Idguchi then he should give up the sport
December 20, 2007 at 10:13 am
Sorry its Iguchi
December 20, 2007 at 10:16 am
D-Backs
Webb - Close to Peavy
Haren - Better than Young
Davis - at this point in thier careers he is close to Maddux
Owens - Better than Wolf
Petit/Johnson - Better than what the Pads have in the 5th spot at the moment
Dodgers
Penny - Close to Peavy
Billingsley - Better than CY
Lowe - Better than Maddux at this point
Schmidt - same boat as Wolf
Kuroda - Better than what the Pads have in the 5th spot at the moment
December 20, 2007 at 10:28 am
2007 ERA+/whip
Owens 109/1.284
Davis 111/1.588
Maddux 98/1.242
The D-backs 3rd & 4th starters both had similar seasons to Maddux last year.
December 20, 2007 at 10:40 am
Here’s the ERA+ for the Padres 1 - 5, Dodgers 1 - 5, and D’Backs 1 - 5 using their 2007 (or latest full season) numbers as a frame of reference:
Padres
Peavy: 159 ERA+
CY: 129 ERA +
Maddux: 98 ERA +
Wolf: 97 ERA +
Rush: 62 ERA +
Team average: 109 ERA+
Dodgers
Penny: 151 ERA +
Billingsley: 138 ERA +
Lowe: 118 ERA +
Schmidt: 125 ERA +
Kuroda: unknown
Team average without Kuroda: 133 ERA+
D’Backs
Webb: 156 ERA+
Haren: 137 ERA +
Davis: 115 ERA +
Owens: 109 ERA +
Petit/Johnson: 113 ERA+
Average ERA+: 126 ERA+
Based on these numbers, the Dodgers have the best numbers with the D’backs after them and us in last. A couple of notes though:
I used Rusch’s numbers from 06, which were pretty bad. I also used Scmidt’s 06 numbers, which were pretty good. I have no idea where to set the baseline for Kuroda.
December 20, 2007 at 10:42 am
Harrens ERA+ will go up now that he gets to face a pitcher once every nine batters.
December 20, 2007 at 10:44 am
Matt Antonelli tore up the California League. What impressed you the most about the young man?
Carlos Lezcano: Durability and his approach day in and day out. He was very professional. His toughness and the adjustments he made coming from second to third.
What impressed me the most was the way he turned a double play. It is not easy coming from third to turn a double play with a runner bearing down on you. He stayed in their very well. Once you get used to that it is about getting used to the range and the movement and getting used to the position. You look at him and he looks like a second baseman.
He will be in the big leagues soon.
December 20, 2007 at 10:48 am
23: A lot of people expressed concern over Haren’s second-half numbers, as well as the fact that his ERA was a half-run higher away from Oakland.
December 20, 2007 at 10:55 am
Giants ERA+
Zito 98
Cain 122
Lowry 113
Lincecum 111
Correia 129
Ave 114.6
Correia was a reliever for most of the year but in his 8 starts he had an ERA of 2.54.
December 20, 2007 at 10:55 am
25. I listened to what Alderson said on 1090’s site, and you can too if you go to the site.
The key is he said that he would take “some” balls in CF and that the team was reluctant to make a position change with him. Also if they don’t make a trade for a corner OF they think they may have some type of platoon with Headley/Hairston, with Hairston also seeing time in CF.
IMO, the key points are these. (1) Headley with Hairston is the LF IF the Pirates don’t take Kouzmanoff and prospects for Bay. If that happens - which I think it will - Headley starts the year at 3b (2) With Iguchi signed only for a year the plan is for Antonelli to play - from everything that I have read and seen - the majority of time at 2b in Portland. With Randy Ready as the new manager - and one of the better infield instructors in place - I doubt he sees much, if any time in CF. Also the Beavers should have Drew Macias - who is a very good defensive CF and could come around this year at the plate there (3) Unless Iguchi puts up an unbelievable year - Antonelli is the next 2b. Look at how the Padres cleared out Loretta for Barfield. They will make room if Antonelli has the type of year most of us expect in Portland. Finally (4) a lot of things can obviously happen in a year - and most likely by this time next year Cedric Hunter will have had a big year in the Cal League at CF and he will be spoken off as being a year away.
December 20, 2007 at 10:56 am
I’m also sceptical of how much facing pitchers will help Haren since he’s moving from a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park as the venue for his home starts. I think the BOB may hurt more than facing a pitcher will help. Of course he’s still a good pitcher either way.
December 20, 2007 at 10:57 am
In the NL west Haren will face weaker lineups and will get to face the pitchers unless he gets hurt or forgets how to pitch his ERA+ will go up.
December 20, 2007 at 10:58 am
17: Look at our teams road ERA. That will tell you why people dont give our staff the “respect they deserve”. Petco plays a VERY big role in the success of our pitching staff, especially CY last year. Its pretty easy to see we have the 3rd best rotation in the division and probably in the league.
December 20, 2007 at 11:01 am
ERA+ adjusts for park factor
December 20, 2007 at 11:02 am
30: What about 2006 for CY? Was that a fluke?
December 20, 2007 at 11:04 am
29: Exactly. The guy is switching to the NL and to one of the weakest offensive divisions in the league. There is a very good chance he could be right there is Webb all year. They have the potential to have 2 real aces on their staff.
December 20, 2007 at 11:05 am
Re: 32 hard to say at this point, he has only played in petco for 2 years 06 he had better road stats than home stats and 07 it was the opposite, it will take a few more seasons to see a true trend.
December 20, 2007 at 11:07 am
Re: 30 based on Post #26, unless that Pads get a quality 5th starter they will have the 4th best rotation in the NL west.
December 20, 2007 at 11:11 am
32: Better hope its a fluke because he was terrible at Petco. A fly ball pitcher who had trouble in a park like petco sounds more like a fluke to me.
December 20, 2007 at 11:13 am
Rockies ERA+
Jeff Francis 114
Aaron Cook 116
Ubaldo Jimenez 112
Jason Hirsh 100
Kip Wells 77
Ave 103
December 20, 2007 at 11:13 am
10: I hereby apologize for my shoddy grammatical performance. I blame it on posting at work, but my attorney is crafting a statement.
December 20, 2007 at 11:16 am
35: I find it hard to believe Corriea will jump in there and be their staff ace. Giants rotation has wuite a few more questions than the Padres. Zito could put up better numbers, its hard to predict what Lincecum will do off a 1/2 season and I am not going to project that Correia will put up numbers as a starter like he did as a reliever.
December 20, 2007 at 11:24 am
I dont think they have more questions than the Pads, Zito will prob have a better year, Cain and Lowery will prob put up similar #’s.
Who is really more questionable Lincecum or Wolf?
Who’s 5th spot is more in question? The Giants have Sanchez, Ortiz and Misch, the Padres have Estes, Rusch, Germano and Hensley.
December 20, 2007 at 11:28 am
I live in the Bay Area and have watched a lot of Correia. He reminds me a lot of Joe Nathan in the sense that he’s always seemed to pitch well, and yet the Giants just don’t seem to have a lot of faith in him in high-leverage situations. He spot starts well, and then it’s back into long middle relief for two months.
I would rather have him pitching for my team than Glendon Rusch, Shawn Estes, Josh Towers, Tim Stauffer, or etc. I also think he’ll have a better career than Jonathan Sanchez, who is all speed with no control. Then again, Sanchez could have a big turnaround like Andrew Brown did with the A’s, or Heath Bell did with the Padres. But he just as easily could be Jorge Julio, a dude that who simply can’t repeat his motion with any precision.
December 20, 2007 at 11:49 am
Re:20
I don’t think that Penny is that close to Peavy. Also, I’ll take CY’s numbers next year over Billingsley’s numbers next year.
That being said, I do agree that the D-Backs now probably have the best staff in the division. However, it’s close, and the Padres staff is nothing to sneeze at.
December 20, 2007 at 12:16 pm
42: I wish I could agree with out re Billingsley vs. CY.
December 20, 2007 at 12:17 pm
Peavy’s 2007 ERA+ 159 career ERA+ 119
Penny’s 2007 ERA+ 151 career ERA+ 110
Like I said close but Peavy is the better pitcher
Your guess is as good as anyones when it comes to who will do better between Young and Billingsley in 08
Young’s 2007 ERA+ 129 career ERA+ 116
Billingsley 2007 ERA+ 138 career ERA+ 130 but both incluse relife apperences so who knows what it will be if he is a full time starter.
Where the Pads are really losing to the rest of the NL west is the 3-5 slots thier 1 and 2 is as good as anyone elses.
December 20, 2007 at 12:26 pm
8: There was some inside scoop posted on this blog last year that Peavy’s broken rib was sustained when he stepped in to break up a fight that Fick started. In other words, Peavy didn’t hurt himself celebrating the division title.
December 20, 2007 at 12:27 pm
45: It was a bar fight.
December 20, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Tigers sign Willis for 3yrs/$29Mil, with guys like Silva getting 4/$44 that is a steal!
December 20, 2007 at 12:52 pm
47: Are you sure that Willis is better?
December 20, 2007 at 12:54 pm
Re: 48 No but I dont think Silva is $15M better than Willis.
December 20, 2007 at 12:57 pm
Silva and Willis have very similar career #’s the big difference is that Willis had a down year last year and Silva had a down yaer in 06.
December 20, 2007 at 1:06 pm
29 & 31: You make a good point about the difference in lineups. Assuming no huge shakeups between last year and the coming one, he will face weaker lineups in the NL West versus the AL West.
Yes, I know ERA+ adjusts for park, but I doubt it’s perfect in its adjustments. It also is a factor relative to the league, so just becasue Haren’s raw ERA may drop by facing pitchers, he will be compared to the rest of the NL, who also face pitchers.
I don’t believe it’s a given that just changing from AL to NL, or from AL West to NL West will automatically give him a higher ERA+. He had a 137 last season, which was the 5th best in the NL last year. I think he’ll be hard pressed to repeat that level of performance next year, let alone improve upon it, but he may. ymmv.
December 20, 2007 at 1:38 pm
49: It’s not really $15 million because Silva has an extra year on his contract. It’s $1.4 million per year, but it’s still a steal for Detroit. Willis is a much better pitcher than Silva, younger, more durable, K’s a lot more guys. Detroit is going to push the Red Sox next season. Here’s to another year of Yankee frustration.
December 20, 2007 at 1:53 pm
I don’t know why people are getting all bent up about an article written by a Dodger fan. There are a lot of huge assumptions in that article. The fact that he’s putting Micah Owings as above average is pretty questionable although maybe he is adding in his offensive potential? I think Haren is also being overrated — he’s a flyball pitcher going into one of the best hitters parks in the majors. That will definitely counteract whatever help he gets from pitching in SD and SF. If you pitch in Petco (like CY) you can get away with it but it’s going to be a lot harder in Arizona. I also think that people are seriously underrating Randy Wolf — his numbers except for his ERA were awesome last season. If (and that’s a big if) he’s healthy he’ll be better then Maddux and I think his overall numbers will be pretty good as he’s another flyball pitcher which fits perfectly in Petco.
December 20, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Haren is moving to an inferior league, easily more inferior. That is more important than all of the other variables.
December 20, 2007 at 2:15 pm
For better or worse, he’s the center fielder:
http://www.padresnation.com/pl.....monds.html
December 20, 2007 at 2:18 pm
you know what ive been meaning to ask. why would we non-tender jack cassel, but keep wil ledezma.
i’m not sure ledezma has EVER been good.
it just struck me odd.
let me know
December 20, 2007 at 2:20 pm
Actually it’s not. The most important variable is that he’s going from one of the best pitchers parks to one of the best hitters parks, that’s going to effect him more then the switch from the AL to the NL.
December 20, 2007 at 2:27 pm
57:
I’m not sure there’s a way to measure what will be more important, but I would rather face inferior lineups every start and not just because of the pitcher/DH dynamic. If both leagues batted pitchers, there would still be a significant difference.
December 20, 2007 at 2:31 pm
RE: 52 im talking guaranteed money, it’s the commitment that their teams are giving them.
Re: 56 KT man crush
December 20, 2007 at 2:31 pm
When Bronson Arroyo went from Boston to Cincinnati, he went from a back of the rotation guy to borderline All-Star. Granted, he went form hitter’s park to hitter’s park, but he’s very underrated in the NL. His park obscures how good he is.
December 20, 2007 at 2:32 pm
56.
Why would you nit pick about Cassel or Ledezma? Who cares? Niether are MLB rotation options in my mind. Cassel didn’t seem to be worth really anything to us with Hensley, Germano, Rusch, Stauffer, Estes and some of the other guys we have. If anything I Ledezma throws pretty hard and is left handed which will always give him some sort of value. I also remember hearing something about him pitching decently in a winter or fall league somewhere.
December 20, 2007 at 2:32 pm
Re: 57 once again ERA+ takes park factor into account.
December 20, 2007 at 2:37 pm
Also ERA+ does take League into account bu not division, I dont think its a fluke that the top 3 ERA+ guys were onn in the NL west this year.
December 20, 2007 at 2:46 pm
re 61 i know they aren’t rotation options, i remember watching ledezma pitch last year. he scared the hell out of me even in the severely limited relief role he had. cassel made it thru 5 inning pretty decently last year so i’d thing hed be a better AAA call up option than going thru the expensive arbitration process with ledezma.
cassel has way less big league innings as i recall so he was going to get paid less than ledezma will i believe.
i mean really neither of them mattered much to me but i just thought it was a weird move
December 20, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Didn’t Cassel put on around 10 baserunners in those 5 innings? No loss there, I reckon. It’s interesting to watch Ed Wade work; he was invisible in the Pads FO, the forgotton ex-GM.
December 20, 2007 at 4:35 pm
Since Geoff wrote about Fernando today, I’ll say a few words: He was always one of my favorite players. I remember Fernandomania in 1981, whe he pitched eight shutouts in the strike-shortened season.
A real baseball player: He could hit, play first base, played the outfield at last once. He could have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but Lasorda overworked him.
In 1991, when everyone thought he was finished, he pitched a no-hitter. Pitched in the Mexican leagues for a few years after he retired from the majors.
December 20, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Here’s FoxSport’s analysis of the NL West:
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7577356
December 20, 2007 at 8:29 pm
#66: He’s still pitching (a little) in Mexico:
http://www.mlb.com/milb/stats/.....pid=123619
December 20, 2007 at 10:19 pm
#6: Thanks, Anthony. You know, it might have been Bill & Ted’s Excellent Adventure.
December 20, 2007 at 11:25 pm
Dan Fox’ fielding numbers for Brian Giles disagree with UZR by about 40 runs for 2007. I just thought that was interesting.