Winter Leagues Begin

Yeah, the Hawaii Winter League has been going for a while, but the Padres don’t have any entrants there, so what do we care. The Arizona Fall League and Mexican Winter League both begin Tuesday. I think I’ve tracked down all the Padres playing there, but let me know if I’ve missed anyone…

Arizona Fall League

Peoria Saguaros

Beyond Fukudome

I try to deal in facts as much as possible, but Peter mentioned in the comments a rumor that cannot be ignored: Apparently the Padres are looking at Japan’s Kosuke Fukudome as an option in the outfield for 2008. Jackson Broder at East Windup Chronicle compares Fukudome to Bob Abreu (hat tip to my own bad self at Knuckle Curve).

I forgot that I’ve actually seen Fukudome homer at Petco Park.

  • 2B Matt Antonelli — The U-T’s Tom Krasovic reiterates in a recent chat that the Padres would like “Antonelli to grab the job in spring training.” Over at Padres.com, Corey Brock notes that Antonelli “will get a long look.” If two primary sources are saying the same thing — well, I think where there’s smoke, there may be fire.
  • RHP Jonathan Ellis
  • C Nick Hundley
  • RHP Neil Jamison — Local kid (Ramona).
  • LHP Will Startup — Part of the payment for Royce Ring. He’ll always enter to the Rolling Stones, whether he likes it or not.
  • OF Will Venable — Played mostly in right field for San Antonio (Baseball America‘s 2007 Team of the Year) but he’ll get a look in center field this winter.

Detroit outfielder Cameron Maybin also plays on this team. (See full roster for more details.)

Mexican Winter League

Aguilas de Mexicali (roster)

  • RHP Steve Watkins
  • RHP Jared Wells

Caneros de los Mochis (roster)

  • LHP Arturo Lopez

Ex-Padre Ruben Rivera will play for Culiacan, while Kevin Walker will play for Guasave. Other blasts from the past include Erubiel Durazo (Hermosillo), Karim Garcia (Culiacan), and Felix Jose (Mochis). No Fernando Valenzuela or Teddy Higuera.

The Venezuelan Winter League starts Thursday; the Dominican Winter League starts Wednesday, October 17. I am still looking for information on Padres entrants in those leagues.

So, anyone going to the AFL this year?

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98 Responses »

  1. Fukudome. Two men enter, one man leaves.

  2. 1: According to the post at MLBTR, most people project Fukudome to be a servicable RF, but a questionnable CF. Given the parks in the NL West, would it be advisable to get a guy who might not have the range to play CF at Petco?

    Of course, defensive condemnations are frequently more overblown than not, so we’ll see what happens. What are his aggregate Japanese numbers? Also, is there any servicable method for predicting MLB success off of Japanese numbers?

  3. Re: 2 I dont think there has been a large enough sample size to make any real evaluation.

  4. #2: Fukudome’s NPB numbers:

    http://www.japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1064

    There have been attempts to translate Japanese numbers to MLB equivalents, but I’m not sure how reliable they are. See Clay Davenport’s work from a few years ago at BPRo:

    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1330
    http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1348

  5. Does anyone know when Fukudome will be free to sign?

  6. From what I have noticed from most Japanese hitters coming over to the US is that the OBP and BA stay about the same (maybe go down a bit) but the power numbers drop way down.

    I dont really have any proof of that its just what I have noticed with both Matsui’s, Ichiro ect…

  7. Jim Albright is The Japanese Insider at Baseball Guru.com. Here’s a link to some of his material on Fukudome, which doesn’t include 2007.

    http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/InfoLinks.html#Kosuke_Fukudome

    Here’s his list of 2007 NPB players to watch:

    http://baseballguru.com/jalbright/analysisjalbright38.html

    Albright sounds very high on his defense. I assume Albright has been involved in creating Major League Equivalencies from Japanese players, but I didn’t see them on his page.

  8. 2: Good point about the defense. It seems like a report like that will get out (good in RF, not so good in CF) and be parrotted by every pundit and website and it’s taken as gospel. All I remember of him in the WBC was the pinch hit home run off BH Kim, I don’t think he even played the field in the two Japan games I attended.

    47 doubles with a .438 OBP? Even if he loses 20-30% of that he’s still going to be an offensive plus.

  9. Tom…I don’t care what anyone else says, your first post was LOL funny.

  10. Having both Fukudome and Giles set the table for A-gon would be nice.

  11. Everything I’ve read says Fuko will require more than $10 mill per year… that seems like a huge risk for an unknown commodity (unknown simply because he hasn’t played here yet).

    I know the talent isn’t equal, (Fuko is better) but take a look at Akinori Iwamura’s numbers this year (Kaz Matsui too). Again, not the same players, but I worry about spending big money on a Japanese player with no real way of knowing what he’ll do in the big leagues.

  12. Re: 11 Pads prob wont sign him for more than 10 mil over 3 years, If another team offers more I think he will go off the Pads radar pretty quickly.

  13. Re: 12 I mean $10 mil per for 3 years

  14. 9: I owe it to GY’s “Beyond Fukudome” sidebar.

    11: I worry about it, too. If Petco and MLB competition knock him down to a 17 HR, 380 OBP, 420 SLG hitter with good corner defense….we got that guy already, we’re paying him nearly 10M already. We could use another one, sure, but if Moores is capping the budget at 70M we need pitching more.

  15. 11: Agreed.

  16. Re: 14 of the FA pitchers this year any of them you think would be worth signing? or do you think they will trade for pitching?

  17. Since the Pads signed Tomko as a FA are they still responsible for the $1mil buyout of his 08 option or does that fall to the dodgers?

  18. 16: That FA pitcher list is nasty. Wolf, Schilling and Livan Hernandez have something to offer, but they have question marks, and the rest of them, bleh. You’re just hoping to get lucky.

    http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/04/2007-free-agents.html

    17: Dodgers.

  19. Re: 18 would you really want Wolf or Hernandez? also I think Shilling would be interesting but not worth the money he would comand.

  20. Thanks for the thoughts on Fukudome. Any report on his speed? I’m not one of those people that believes in speed above all else, but it would be nice to have in CF.

    I know we’ve already discussed Crisp, and to a lesser extent, Rowand, but are there any other under-the-radar CF types that would be feasible and valuable?

  21. Re: 20 Carlos Quinton but I dont think the D-Back would trade him within the Div

  22. Anyone else have that old Tina Turner song running through their heads right now?

    “We don’t need another heeeeeroooo
    We don’t need another waaaaay hooome
    All we want is what’s beyond…Fukodome”

  23. 19: Yes, I’d want either of them.

    Wolf was a good pitcher coming off a very recoverable injury. They didn’t find any structural damage to his shoulder. 7.5 K/9, LH, flyball pitcher in Petco. I wouldn’t guarantee him a lot of money but I’d like him around.

    Hernandez is no great shakes but he’s a lock for 200+ innings, he’s thrown as many as 255 before. There’s value in having that much durability in one rotation spot.

  24. 23: Even with his WHIP? How great is it to have an innings-eater if his innings are not particularly good?

  25. Wow, BaseballReference has Livan listed as 32 years old. Seriously? He looks older than David Wells.

    I’d take Schilling if we could get him on a Maddux type deal, 1 year with an option.

  26. It’s going to take me some getting used to the fact that Will Startup is no longer in the Braves organization.

    Good kid, bright future.

    At least we still have Gunderson. lol

  27. #24: At the back end of a rotation when you’re gunning for the playoffs? Pretty great.

  28. 25 – Livan recently celebrated his 8th annual 32nd birthday…

  29. #28: LOL. Has it only been eight years?

  30. 27: Why is he any better than a combo of Germano and Hensley? Plus he is at least 40.

  31. 27: Lots of reasons.

    1. He didn’t just have labrum surgery. Hensley may never pitch well again. Shoulder surgeries can kill pitchers.

    2. It would take both Hensley and Germano to get 225 innings, throwing 5.5 or 6 per start. Hernandez can give you an inning more per start and use just one roster spot doing it. That’s incredibly valuable, to know that in almost every turn through the rotation you’re only going to need a small contribution from the pen.

    3. Germano’s ERA+ was 94 and it was only that high because they pulled him from the rotation before it could get worse. Hernandez is the better pitcher. A healthy Hensley might outpitch him, but Hensley won’t be ready at the start of the season and might never recover.

    4. I don’t care how old he is, it’s a one-year deal that stabilizes the rotation. We didn’t make the playoffs because our rotation fell apart in August and September. We not only lacked good pitchers, we lacked bodies who could start.

  32. I’d really like the see the Pads bring in a few guys with bigger upside then Livan for the back end of the rotation. One thing the team should have this year is a nice group of starters available from AAA(LeBlanc, Geer, Inman, Ramos etc) to fill in when the regular guys are hurt.

    They can afford to take a chance on Prior and Clement(who, if healthy would be the 2 best FA pitchers available) because of that depth.

    I’d much, much rather have 15 starts from Prior, 15 from Clement and 30 from the AAA guys then see 30 from Livan and 30 from Tomko.

    Now, sign Tomko and make him a short reliever and I’m a happy camper. His stuff would seem better served in the pen.

  33. Add Jason Jennings to my SP list and I’d be happy:

    bring in Prior, Jennings and Clement for 2 spots and I think they end up in good shape. If they got even 1 healthy season then the rotation would look a ton better then it did this season.

  34. Re: 32 I agree with making Tomko a reliver but I think another team would be willing to give him a starting roll.

  35. Re: 34 Role

  36. 32: I have zero faith that Geer and Ramos will be even replacement-level starters. You might get a couple of good starts.

    That scenario puts 2/5 of the rotation in the hands of pitchers who did not throw a major league inning this year and who threw only 100 between them due to injuries the year before. And Chris Young, having missed significant parts of the last two seasons with injuries, must be considered likely to go down. 15 starts from Prior and Clement each is a huge reach.

    The choice isn’t between Hernandez + Tomko and upside. You sign Hernandez, you go for upside with the other spot, knowing that you have a pitcher who can outperform most #5s every time out. Nothing stops you from signing Prior, possibly Clement, and Wolf, even. But methinks you’re not only counting too heavily on a resurgence from Prior/Clement, you’re also counting far too much on Leblanc and Inman to be better than average.

  37. 33: Unfortunately, we’re likely to get only 1 starter’s worth of work from all 3 combined. In that case it’s even more imperative to have a workhorse in the rotation instead of hoping that every break goes our way with pitchers who’ve logged more time in surgery than they have on the playing field recently.

  38. I dont know if it makes a difference, but the dome in Fukudome isnt pronounced the same as in thunder dome or astro dome. It’s more a Do May sound..

  39. Milton…Milton…Milton

    All the sportswriters, save NickCap, are on their knees praying for the return of Milton Bradley.

    Geoff just think of all the posts that would write themselves, all the entertaining feeds of his latest nonverbal insults given to umpires, all the goading he would have to ignore everywhere.

    I can live with a thin skin on anyone who plays his heart out.

    Let Milton return! (That and two other center fielders.)

  40. #38: Yes, but that isn’t as funny. 8)

  41. TW is exactly right (Tom, how often do we agree?), Livan would be GREAT at the end of this rotation… Maddux doesn’t go for many IP/start and CY is a health-question. Livan might only give us a 10-10 season, but if he does that w/ 200+ IP it takes the stress off the ‘pen and makes them more effective.

    I disagree w/ TW about Hensley (that felt more normal), I think his shoulder was every bit as minor as Wolf’s (rotator cuff is what you worry about) and I think Hensley’s labrum explains his 2007. If he is back to health, he’ll be great, but we do need some more depth.

    Regarding Fuko: he’s an interesting story to watch this offseason. In Alderson/KT we trust…

  42. 41: We’re gonna keep disagreeing. According to Will Carroll, the labrum is baseball’s most fearsome injury:

    http://www.slate.com/id/2100895/

    The difference between Wolf and Hensley is that Wolf’s shoulder was much less damaged. It’s still a shoulder and it’s still a worry, but it doesn’t pose the career-ending danger posed by a torn labrum.

    Livan gives us moderate upside, although he does have the potential to break off a 110 ERA+ season. Then you take your chances with the remaining spot in the rotation.

  43. REALLY!?! My bad… But even then, that’s not disagreein’ that’s just me being wrong. I still contend that if Hensley can/does return, he’s going to look more like the 2nd half of ’06 than ’07 (and to whomever cares, I do have logic to look at his 2nd half of ’06 vs. his whole ’06).

  44. Livan would be perfect for the #5 spot, assuming the price is right ($ and years). I’m actually ok with taking a chance on Tomko as long as we have some other viable options if/when he flames out. Sign a few of the low end FA starters as insurance.

    I think every team in baseball is going to look at Prior and Clement as sleepers and they’ll end up going for a lot more than people are expecting.

    I don’t know why anyone thinks we’ll see Inman next year. He’s 20 years old and pitched a total of 80 innings above A ball. He needs at least two more years, IMO. It’s not like he’s got a 98 mph fastball, he needs to continue to learn how to pitch.

  45. Geer is interesting, Ramos scares me, and Inman isn’t ready…

  46. Livan Hernandez has ERA+ of 94 and 95 the past two years, with peripherals that suggest much worse performance than that. And he “only” threw 204.3 innings. He had 90 K’s and and 79 BB’s, for a 5.62 xFIP. He’s really scary. Plus free agent pitchers are always way overpaid in both years and dollars.

    I like Wolf and Schilling though.

  47. Re: 45 what about Leblanc? still to soon for him?

  48. Schilling is an interesting name. Wonder if he and Maddog have any history…

    With Schill’s love for the flyball, he may be a good fit here in SD…couple that with his gammer mentality and loud mouth, it certainly could make 2008 a season to remember!

  49. Re: 48 I dont think SD is a big enough media market for Schilling

  50. re 44: Sometimes guys will make sacrifices to make more down the road, thats why I wouldn’t be surprised to see FA pitchers coming off arm injuries end up in San Diego.

    -Prior is from San Diego, Clement played here before
    -Petco
    -Very good defensive team
    -Great bullpen(you aren’t asked to go 120+ pitches)

    There is a ton to like, especially for someone like Jennings who could command a 4/40 type deal after a healthy year why wouldn’t he take 2M in San Diego instead of a 2/10 deal somewhere else?