Winter Leagues Begin
Tue, Oct 9, 2007
by Geoff Young
Yeah, the Hawaii Winter League has been going for a while, but the Padres don’t have any entrants there, so what do we care. The Arizona Fall League and Mexican Winter League both begin Tuesday. I think I’ve tracked down all the Padres playing there, but let me know if I’ve missed anyone…
Arizona Fall League
Peoria Saguaros
I try to deal in facts as much as possible, but Peter mentioned in the comments a rumor that cannot be ignored: Apparently the Padres are looking at Japan’s Kosuke Fukudome as an option in the outfield for 2008. Jackson Broder at East Windup Chronicle compares Fukudome to Bob Abreu (hat tip to my own bad self at Knuckle Curve).
I forgot that I’ve actually seen Fukudome homer at Petco Park.
- 2B Matt Antonelli — The U-T’s Tom Krasovic reiterates in a recent chat that the Padres would like “Antonelli to grab the job in spring training.” Over at Padres.com, Corey Brock notes that Antonelli “will get a long look.” If two primary sources are saying the same thing — well, I think where there’s smoke, there may be fire.
- RHP Jonathan Ellis
- C Nick Hundley
- RHP Neil Jamison — Local kid (Ramona).
- LHP Will Startup — Part of the payment for Royce Ring. He’ll always enter to the Rolling Stones, whether he likes it or not.
- OF Will Venable — Played mostly in right field for San Antonio (Baseball America’s 2007 Team of the Year) but he’ll get a look in center field this winter.
Detroit outfielder Cameron Maybin also plays on this team. (See full roster for more details.)
Mexican Winter League
Aguilas de Mexicali (roster)
- RHP Steve Watkins
- RHP Jared Wells
Caneros de los Mochis (roster)
- LHP Arturo Lopez
Ex-Padre Ruben Rivera will play for Culiacan, while Kevin Walker will play for Guasave. Other blasts from the past include Erubiel Durazo (Hermosillo), Karim Garcia (Culiacan), and Felix Jose (Mochis). No Fernando Valenzuela or Teddy Higuera.
The Venezuelan Winter League starts Thursday; the Dominican Winter League starts Wednesday, October 17. I am still looking for information on Padres entrants in those leagues.
So, anyone going to the AFL this year?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 9, 2007 at 8:22 am
Fukudome. Two men enter, one man leaves.
October 9, 2007 at 8:36 am
1: According to the post at MLBTR, most people project Fukudome to be a servicable RF, but a questionnable CF. Given the parks in the NL West, would it be advisable to get a guy who might not have the range to play CF at Petco?
Of course, defensive condemnations are frequently more overblown than not, so we’ll see what happens. What are his aggregate Japanese numbers? Also, is there any servicable method for predicting MLB success off of Japanese numbers?
October 9, 2007 at 8:51 am
Re: 2 I dont think there has been a large enough sample size to make any real evaluation.
October 9, 2007 at 8:52 am
#2: Fukudome’s NPB numbers:
http://www.japanesebaseball.co.....yerID=1064
There have been attempts to translate Japanese numbers to MLB equivalents, but I’m not sure how reliable they are. See Clay Davenport’s work from a few years ago at BPRo:
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=1330
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=1348
October 9, 2007 at 9:03 am
Does anyone know when Fukudome will be free to sign?
October 9, 2007 at 9:06 am
From what I have noticed from most Japanese hitters coming over to the US is that the OBP and BA stay about the same (maybe go down a bit) but the power numbers drop way down.
I dont really have any proof of that its just what I have noticed with both Matsui’s, Ichiro ect…
October 9, 2007 at 9:08 am
Jim Albright is The Japanese Insider at Baseball Guru.com. Here’s a link to some of his material on Fukudome, which doesn’t include 2007.
http://baseballguru.com/jalbri.....e_Fukudome
Here’s his list of 2007 NPB players to watch:
http://baseballguru.com/jalbri.....ght38.html
Albright sounds very high on his defense. I assume Albright has been involved in creating Major League Equivalencies from Japanese players, but I didn’t see them on his page.
October 9, 2007 at 9:20 am
2: Good point about the defense. It seems like a report like that will get out (good in RF, not so good in CF) and be parrotted by every pundit and website and it’s taken as gospel. All I remember of him in the WBC was the pinch hit home run off BH Kim, I don’t think he even played the field in the two Japan games I attended.
47 doubles with a .438 OBP? Even if he loses 20-30% of that he’s still going to be an offensive plus.
October 9, 2007 at 9:20 am
Tom…I don’t care what anyone else says, your first post was LOL funny.
October 9, 2007 at 9:21 am
Having both Fukudome and Giles set the table for A-gon would be nice.
October 9, 2007 at 9:23 am
Everything I’ve read says Fuko will require more than $10 mill per year… that seems like a huge risk for an unknown commodity (unknown simply because he hasn’t played here yet).
I know the talent isn’t equal, (Fuko is better) but take a look at Akinori Iwamura’s numbers this year (Kaz Matsui too). Again, not the same players, but I worry about spending big money on a Japanese player with no real way of knowing what he’ll do in the big leagues.
October 9, 2007 at 9:25 am
Re: 11 Pads prob wont sign him for more than 10 mil over 3 years, If another team offers more I think he will go off the Pads radar pretty quickly.
October 9, 2007 at 9:25 am
Re: 12 I mean $10 mil per for 3 years
October 9, 2007 at 9:28 am
9: I owe it to GY’s “Beyond Fukudome” sidebar.
11: I worry about it, too. If Petco and MLB competition knock him down to a 17 HR, 380 OBP, 420 SLG hitter with good corner defense….we got that guy already, we’re paying him nearly 10M already. We could use another one, sure, but if Moores is capping the budget at 70M we need pitching more.
October 9, 2007 at 9:29 am
11: Agreed.
October 9, 2007 at 9:32 am
Re: 14 of the FA pitchers this year any of them you think would be worth signing? or do you think they will trade for pitching?
October 9, 2007 at 9:36 am
Since the Pads signed Tomko as a FA are they still responsible for the $1mil buyout of his 08 option or does that fall to the dodgers?
October 9, 2007 at 9:45 am
16: That FA pitcher list is nasty. Wolf, Schilling and Livan Hernandez have something to offer, but they have question marks, and the rest of them, bleh. You’re just hoping to get lucky.
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.c.....gents.html
17: Dodgers.
October 9, 2007 at 9:50 am
Re: 18 would you really want Wolf or Hernandez? also I think Shilling would be interesting but not worth the money he would comand.
October 9, 2007 at 9:50 am
Thanks for the thoughts on Fukudome. Any report on his speed? I’m not one of those people that believes in speed above all else, but it would be nice to have in CF.
I know we’ve already discussed Crisp, and to a lesser extent, Rowand, but are there any other under-the-radar CF types that would be feasible and valuable?
October 9, 2007 at 9:54 am
Re: 20 Carlos Quinton but I dont think the D-Back would trade him within the Div
October 9, 2007 at 10:03 am
Anyone else have that old Tina Turner song running through their heads right now?
“We don’t need another heeeeeroooo
We don’t need another waaaaay hooome
All we want is what’s beyond…Fukodome”
October 9, 2007 at 10:07 am
19: Yes, I’d want either of them.
Wolf was a good pitcher coming off a very recoverable injury. They didn’t find any structural damage to his shoulder. 7.5 K/9, LH, flyball pitcher in Petco. I wouldn’t guarantee him a lot of money but I’d like him around.
Hernandez is no great shakes but he’s a lock for 200+ innings, he’s thrown as many as 255 before. There’s value in having that much durability in one rotation spot.
October 9, 2007 at 10:50 am
23: Even with his WHIP? How great is it to have an innings-eater if his innings are not particularly good?
October 9, 2007 at 10:51 am
Wow, BaseballReference has Livan listed as 32 years old. Seriously? He looks older than David Wells.
I’d take Schilling if we could get him on a Maddux type deal, 1 year with an option.
October 9, 2007 at 10:54 am
It’s going to take me some getting used to the fact that Will Startup is no longer in the Braves organization.
Good kid, bright future.
At least we still have Gunderson. lol
October 9, 2007 at 11:01 am
#24: At the back end of a rotation when you’re gunning for the playoffs? Pretty great.
October 9, 2007 at 11:05 am
25 - Livan recently celebrated his 8th annual 32nd birthday…
October 9, 2007 at 11:09 am
#28: LOL. Has it only been eight years?
October 9, 2007 at 11:11 am
27: Why is he any better than a combo of Germano and Hensley? Plus he is at least 40.
October 9, 2007 at 11:35 am
27: Lots of reasons.
1. He didn’t just have labrum surgery. Hensley may never pitch well again. Shoulder surgeries can kill pitchers.
2. It would take both Hensley and Germano to get 225 innings, throwing 5.5 or 6 per start. Hernandez can give you an inning more per start and use just one roster spot doing it. That’s incredibly valuable, to know that in almost every turn through the rotation you’re only going to need a small contribution from the pen.
3. Germano’s ERA+ was 94 and it was only that high because they pulled him from the rotation before it could get worse. Hernandez is the better pitcher. A healthy Hensley might outpitch him, but Hensley won’t be ready at the start of the season and might never recover.
4. I don’t care how old he is, it’s a one-year deal that stabilizes the rotation. We didn’t make the playoffs because our rotation fell apart in August and September. We not only lacked good pitchers, we lacked bodies who could start.
October 9, 2007 at 11:35 am
I’d really like the see the Pads bring in a few guys with bigger upside then Livan for the back end of the rotation. One thing the team should have this year is a nice group of starters available from AAA(LeBlanc, Geer, Inman, Ramos etc) to fill in when the regular guys are hurt.
They can afford to take a chance on Prior and Clement(who, if healthy would be the 2 best FA pitchers available) because of that depth.
I’d much, much rather have 15 starts from Prior, 15 from Clement and 30 from the AAA guys then see 30 from Livan and 30 from Tomko.
Now, sign Tomko and make him a short reliever and I’m a happy camper. His stuff would seem better served in the pen.
October 9, 2007 at 11:45 am
Add Jason Jennings to my SP list and I’d be happy:
bring in Prior, Jennings and Clement for 2 spots and I think they end up in good shape. If they got even 1 healthy season then the rotation would look a ton better then it did this season.
October 9, 2007 at 11:48 am
Re: 32 I agree with making Tomko a reliver but I think another team would be willing to give him a starting roll.
October 9, 2007 at 11:48 am
Re: 34 Role
October 9, 2007 at 11:50 am
32: I have zero faith that Geer and Ramos will be even replacement-level starters. You might get a couple of good starts.
That scenario puts 2/5 of the rotation in the hands of pitchers who did not throw a major league inning this year and who threw only 100 between them due to injuries the year before. And Chris Young, having missed significant parts of the last two seasons with injuries, must be considered likely to go down. 15 starts from Prior and Clement each is a huge reach.
The choice isn’t between Hernandez + Tomko and upside. You sign Hernandez, you go for upside with the other spot, knowing that you have a pitcher who can outperform most #5s every time out. Nothing stops you from signing Prior, possibly Clement, and Wolf, even. But methinks you’re not only counting too heavily on a resurgence from Prior/Clement, you’re also counting far too much on Leblanc and Inman to be better than average.
October 9, 2007 at 11:51 am
33: Unfortunately, we’re likely to get only 1 starter’s worth of work from all 3 combined. In that case it’s even more imperative to have a workhorse in the rotation instead of hoping that every break goes our way with pitchers who’ve logged more time in surgery than they have on the playing field recently.
October 9, 2007 at 11:52 am
I dont know if it makes a difference, but the dome in Fukudome isnt pronounced the same as in thunder dome or astro dome. It’s more a Do May sound..
October 9, 2007 at 11:59 am
Milton…Milton…Milton
All the sportswriters, save NickCap, are on their knees praying for the return of Milton Bradley.
Geoff just think of all the posts that would write themselves, all the entertaining feeds of his latest nonverbal insults given to umpires, all the goading he would have to ignore everywhere.
I can live with a thin skin on anyone who plays his heart out.
Let Milton return! (That and two other center fielders.)
October 9, 2007 at 12:03 pm
#38: Yes, but that isn’t as funny.
October 9, 2007 at 12:05 pm
TW is exactly right (Tom, how often do we agree?), Livan would be GREAT at the end of this rotation… Maddux doesn’t go for many IP/start and CY is a health-question. Livan might only give us a 10-10 season, but if he does that w/ 200+ IP it takes the stress off the ‘pen and makes them more effective.
I disagree w/ TW about Hensley (that felt more normal), I think his shoulder was every bit as minor as Wolf’s (rotator cuff is what you worry about) and I think Hensley’s labrum explains his 2007. If he is back to health, he’ll be great, but we do need some more depth.
Regarding Fuko: he’s an interesting story to watch this offseason. In Alderson/KT we trust…
October 9, 2007 at 12:16 pm
41: We’re gonna keep disagreeing. According to Will Carroll, the labrum is baseball’s most fearsome injury:
http://www.slate.com/id/2100895/
The difference between Wolf and Hensley is that Wolf’s shoulder was much less damaged. It’s still a shoulder and it’s still a worry, but it doesn’t pose the career-ending danger posed by a torn labrum.
Livan gives us moderate upside, although he does have the potential to break off a 110 ERA+ season. Then you take your chances with the remaining spot in the rotation.
October 9, 2007 at 12:30 pm
REALLY!?! My bad… But even then, that’s not disagreein’ that’s just me being wrong. I still contend that if Hensley can/does return, he’s going to look more like the 2nd half of ‘06 than ‘07 (and to whomever cares, I do have logic to look at his 2nd half of ‘06 vs. his whole ‘06).
October 9, 2007 at 12:34 pm
Livan would be perfect for the #5 spot, assuming the price is right ($ and years). I’m actually ok with taking a chance on Tomko as long as we have some other viable options if/when he flames out. Sign a few of the low end FA starters as insurance.
I think every team in baseball is going to look at Prior and Clement as sleepers and they’ll end up going for a lot more than people are expecting.
I don’t know why anyone thinks we’ll see Inman next year. He’s 20 years old and pitched a total of 80 innings above A ball. He needs at least two more years, IMO. It’s not like he’s got a 98 mph fastball, he needs to continue to learn how to pitch.
October 9, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Geer is interesting, Ramos scares me, and Inman isn’t ready…
October 9, 2007 at 12:36 pm
Livan Hernandez has ERA+ of 94 and 95 the past two years, with peripherals that suggest much worse performance than that. And he “only” threw 204.3 innings. He had 90 K’s and and 79 BB’s, for a 5.62 xFIP. He’s really scary. Plus free agent pitchers are always way overpaid in both years and dollars.
I like Wolf and Schilling though.
October 9, 2007 at 12:38 pm
Re: 45 what about Leblanc? still to soon for him?
October 9, 2007 at 12:43 pm
Schilling is an interesting name. Wonder if he and Maddog have any history…
With Schill’s love for the flyball, he may be a good fit here in SD…couple that with his gammer mentality and loud mouth, it certainly could make 2008 a season to remember!
October 9, 2007 at 12:45 pm
Re: 48 I dont think SD is a big enough media market for Schilling
October 9, 2007 at 12:46 pm
re 44: Sometimes guys will make sacrifices to make more down the road, thats why I wouldn’t be surprised to see FA pitchers coming off arm injuries end up in San Diego.
-Prior is from San Diego, Clement played here before
-Petco
-Very good defensive team
-Great bullpen(you aren’t asked to go 120+ pitches)
There is a ton to like, especially for someone like Jennings who could command a 4/40 type deal after a healthy year why wouldn’t he take 2M in San Diego instead of a 2/10 deal somewhere else?
October 9, 2007 at 12:49 pm
46: I’m not disagreeing, but the 3 years before that his ERA+ went 155, 115, 100. And after he was traded from the Nationals in 2006, his ERA+ for Arizona was 127. His declining strikeouts do worry me, but Arizona’s team defense was pretty good this year (9th in DE). Maybe he was pitching to contact more, which usually makes me cringe, but he’s a renowned cruiser.
I’m definitely not interested in anything more than 1 plus an option for him.
47: I’d say yes. 57 innings above A ball, but he did well for San Antonio.
October 9, 2007 at 12:53 pm
Everyone does realize that these pitchers will be able to pitch in the minor league’s again next year right?
Additionally, Geer and LeBlanc had long college careers so saying they have only thrown 50IP in the high minors doesn’t mean as much as it would for a kid coming straight from high school.
October 9, 2007 at 12:56 pm
Re: 52 I think we are looking to the minor league guys because they are cheap and the pads have control over them for the next 6+ years. Its like fixing a hole with cement instead of duct tape.
October 9, 2007 at 1:00 pm
When is carillio suppose to be ready to pitch again?
October 9, 2007 at 1:03 pm
52: If you bring them up too soon, they get shelled, the team loses games, and you put them on the clock to arbitration. Geer’s long college career doesn’t change the fact he doesn’t strike anybody out. Well, not “anybody,” but his K rate is bad.
53: When people are talking about using 6, 7, or 8 pitchers to fill two holes in the rotation, that’s tape. None of those pitchers have Peavy’s stuff, and neither Peavy nor Perez would have been called up as soon as they were if we’d any other options. By not rushing them, you get those 6 years when the pitchers can help you more.
My guess is the Padres try to trade for Igawa again, who has some upside, and then go with Tomko for the 5th spot. Meh to Tomko. Worse performance than Livan, less durable.
October 9, 2007 at 1:07 pm
54: Carrillo had surgery in mid-May. Estimates for recovery have become crazy aggressive recently, sometimes they’ll talk about a guy coming back in 12 months. More realistic is getting back into minor league or complex games late next summer. coming to ST 2009 almost rehabbed, spending some time in the minors. Almost 2 full years before he’s ready to go in the majors, my guess.
October 9, 2007 at 1:10 pm
As long as we’re bargain hunting, what about Carlos Silva? Kind of a younger Livan; doesn’t strike anyone out but doesn’t walk many either, 180+ IP four years in a row, puts up a good ERA+ except for 2006 when he had gopheritis.
October 9, 2007 at 1:10 pm
54: He’ll pitch next season, but most likely he’ll need at least 1/2 a season in the minors to get back to where he was in ‘05. He’ll probably be a Padres rotation guy starting in 2009.
October 9, 2007 at 1:12 pm
Re: 49…he pitched his way to the WS with the Diamondbacks.
October 9, 2007 at 1:13 pm
56: I think he’ll work his way into the ‘pen at the end of ‘08…
October 9, 2007 at 1:14 pm
Re: 55 What I meant was with the young guys (when they’re ready) would create a rotation that is set for several years, instead of patch working together a rotation each year by giving guys a 2nd chance (tomko, jennings), a chance to prove thier worth after injury (Prior, Clement, Wolf), or guys who are at the end of thier career and want to play thier last years in a big park so they can pad thier stats and live in a nice sunny place (maddux, wells shilling, hernandez)
October 9, 2007 at 1:29 pm
61: There’s going to be attrition. That rotation isn’t going to be set. Peavy’s probably gone after 2009, Maddux is gone after 2008. LeBlanc and Inman have the best chances to succeed.
There’s also the chance that calling them up too soon wrecks them beyond repair. Dennis Tankersley looked like a better pitching prospect than either of them.
I will be very, very surprised if the team has any intention of putting two rotation spots in the hands of any current Padre farmhands. They might end up doing it, but only because their preferred options didn’t work out.
October 9, 2007 at 1:30 pm
60: I’d rather not even bother. He gets to the bigs in the bullpen, hopefully we’re competing, he’s going to be under enormous pressure to throw the hell out of the ball. I like him a lot as a starter, rather not take that kind of chance for 6 weeks or so of relief. But it might be a nice reward even if they don’t use him. Of course that would require the team to care more about personnel than preserving open range in the locker room.
October 9, 2007 at 1:33 pm
62: I meant for next year. I don’t see them going with any of our prospects for 2008 unless other plans fail. After they have another year of (let’s hope) minor league success in 2008, then they’re in the plans for 2009.
October 9, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Regarding Fukudome, someone just IM’d this to me:
http://armchairgm.com/index.ph.....e_Fukudome
October 9, 2007 at 1:48 pm
Re: 62 Im thinking more long term than 08 really, your right that LeBlanc/Inman/others will not be ready for the 08 season. If things dont work out they could be up by the ASB but who knows.
My point is that im sick of trying to fill 2-3 holes in the rotation each years with re-treds/damaged goods/simi-retired guys and trying to catch lightining in a bottle. When was the last year where the pads had a solid #5 stater all year? The last I can think of was valdez who KT traded at the deadline because he wanted to give hitchcock one alst shot in SD.
October 9, 2007 at 1:52 pm
KG @ BP said this in a recent chat …
James (Lubbock, Texas): Kevin, off the top of your head who has the most improved farm system from this time last year to today? My Rangers have to be in the conversation, if not at the top of the list.
Kevin Goldstein: The three teams that immediately come to mind are the Rangers, Padres and Nationals.
http://www.baseballprospectus......chatId=369
October 9, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Another upside from Schill would be his penchant for posting in fan forums/blogs. Do we know any of those?
October 9, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Re: 68 he has his own blog
kind of like kurt warners wife who calls into sports talk radio stations to denfend her husbend.
October 9, 2007 at 2:01 pm
Man did you see Schilling pitch last night? I’m finally convinced the man is a GOD!
October 9, 2007 at 2:01 pm
#66: Valdez was not a solid #5 starter. His ERA+ was actually worse when the Padres traded him in ‘04 than David Wells’ was this year when they released him.
#69: Here is Schilling’s blog:
http://38pitches.com/
It’s fascinating stuff. I wish more pro athletes would do this sort of thing.
October 9, 2007 at 2:01 pm
Re: 70 im sure if shilling did post in a blog it would look something like that.
October 9, 2007 at 2:04 pm
#72: Except that he does, and it doesn’t.
October 9, 2007 at 2:04 pm
Re: 71 True but its not bad for a fifth starter he at least provided some consistency there, wells was a decent pitcher to start the year he just fell apart in his last few starts.
October 9, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Re: 73 I know I was j/k
October 9, 2007 at 2:08 pm
66: Hernandez is a lot better pitcher than Valdez was at this point in their careers. Better performance, a lot more rugged. If you were okay with Ishmael, you’ve got to be okay with Livan.
One of the biggest benefits of signing Hernandez is that it allows you to take more chances in that final rotation spot. There’s no sure thing in baseball, but Livan throwing 200 roughly league-average innings is close.
October 9, 2007 at 2:11 pm
Re: Im ok with Hernandez for next year as long as its only a 1 year deal and there a backup plan for him as well.
October 9, 2007 at 2:13 pm
Does a rotation of Peavy, Young, Maddux, Hernandez, other mid level guy beat the Rockies, D-backs, and dodgers next year?
October 9, 2007 at 2:15 pm
did anyone else see this:
“Claimed IF Luis Rodriguez off waivers from Minnesota”
October 9, 2007 at 2:26 pm
78: It would have beat them this year. I don’t see why the final starter has to be a mid-level guy. There are risky free agents who could be more than mid-level, and we still might see a trade.
Peavy, Young, Maddux, Igawa (example), Hernandez is the best starting staff in the NL West next year. That’s only half the battle to winning the division.
79: Yeah, and it made me wonder why we bothered. How many futility infielders do we need on the 40 man roster? Claiming Stansberry last year left us no room to protect Soria….that kid with a 75/19 k/bb ratio in 69 innings.
October 9, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Is Corey Brock an idiot, or is he a trusted source of information? In his latest entry, he sees neither Bradley nor Cameron returning. From everything I’ve read in the UT, it seems like KT is more than open to bringing back Milton. I gotta think that Milton would be looking for some security, so I would be stunned if we we DIDN’T get him back.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
And as GY said the other day, more Antonelli as a starter talk for next year. There’s starting to be a great deal of smoke.
October 9, 2007 at 3:00 pm
Re: 81 wont Bradley be out until mid season?
October 9, 2007 at 3:19 pm
82: Yes, but Brock is saying he won’t be a Padre, period. Based on the comments we’ve seen from KT et al, I find this really hard to believe.
October 9, 2007 at 4:39 pm
I’m getting depressed with all of this talk about 2008, while there’s still baseball being played…
October 9, 2007 at 4:41 pm
Peoria Saguaros’ first game starts soon … you can find box score info here …
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/.....p;sid=l119
October 9, 2007 at 4:46 pm
84: Who’s still playing?
October 9, 2007 at 5:19 pm
LOL @ 86
TW, I really don’t think the Padres will let Peavy walk after ‘09… We can’t look at the guys they’ve let walk in recent years b/c none of them were top-tier guys still in their prime. I would say even with Jake’s expected price (minimum: high-teens per year) Jake is more similar to B. Giles & Hoffman circa 2005/6 offseason than any other player who walked away from San Diego without an offer.
Changing subjects:
I think the following minor league players have a chance of being an MLB starters:
- Carrillo
- Leblanc
- Ramos (I have to include him - but I have my doubts)
- Geer (any serious upside? he’s intriguing)
- Ayala
- Luebke (I hated this draft pick when it happened - but I love this kid now)
- Schmidt
- Miller
- Latos
- Breit
- Simon (???) Rookie-ball Dominican
Now as TW pointed out, there will be some attrition (”a lot” really) but I’m seriously amped about this team’s present & future…
October 9, 2007 at 5:58 pm
87: If Alderson’s around, I really doubt they sign Peavy after 2009 to the kind of contract top-tier pitchers are getting. 5 years, 16-18 million? Don’t see it. Their best chance would seem to be redoing the last two years of his current deal and tacking on 2-3 more.
On the prospects, this is absolutely quick and dirty, but my estimated odds of those players being league-average major league starters:
Carrillo - 50%
Leblanc - 45%
Ramos - 20%
Geer - 20%
Ayala - 30%
Luebke - 25%
Schmidt - 20%
Miller - 15%
Latos - 15%
Breit - 15%
Simon - 10%
Maybe cut those percentages in half for the odds of being a good SP, and in half again for the odds of being a top of the rotation starter. And that’s not out of cynicism in regard to the Padres. It’s the nature of prospects. If you looked through a Baseball America or a Sickels Annual from 5 years ago, many of the names are fringe major leagues or never made it.
Nobody in the world is a lock. Some guys won’t make it because of injury. Some are short on stuff. Some it just won’t happen for, and the odds of that happening are higher for the players who are furthest away. One might be left unprotected on the 40 man so we can carry another futility infielder or a backup catcher who can’t hit, get drafted in the Rule 5, and turn into a closer for another team. Hey, that already happened.
October 9, 2007 at 5:58 pm
Here’s an idea for CF. How about bringing back Shane Victorino? While the Philly fans seem to love him, they have Michael Bourne who they may want to give a shot as well. I don’t know if I would deal Chase Headley for him, but the Phillies do have a need for a third basemen. Perhaps there is a better combination of players that can make this happen. And if the Phils save money at 3B, they can still try and re-sign Rowand to play CF.
October 9, 2007 at 6:09 pm
85 … Venable DH’ing … Antonelli @ 2B …
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/.....n_scowin_1
October 9, 2007 at 6:47 pm
TW, I’d pretty much agree w/ those percentages… The cool thing is, we’re not in a situation where if our one starting pitching prospect (i.e. Jared Wells) doesn’t pan out, we’re SOL… There’s enough depth there that there’s a decent chance we have at least one above average pitcher to add to Peavy, Young, and co…
October 9, 2007 at 6:52 pm
The Phillies are not re-signing Rowand. They plan to use Bourn/Victorino. On a related note, I was told an Atlanta area paper (AJC?) said the Braves plan on using Jeff Francouer in CF (where he played in the minors) so while we’ve seen lots of discussion about Cameron going to Atlanta, chances are Atlanta doesn’t intend to spend additional money on their OF.
October 9, 2007 at 7:00 pm
92: That’s certainly interesting. I wonder what that does to the value of center fielders in free agency.
October 10, 2007 at 3:57 am
What about signing Cory Patterson for CF?
I like the idea of Schilling…
October 10, 2007 at 7:08 am
As nice as it would be to have Patterson’s speed I can’t imagine he would help a playoff team…no power, terrible OBP and fringe defense in center….seems like a guy to avoid at all costs.
October 10, 2007 at 7:22 am
Not to rain on everyone’s parade(again) on Schilling, but as much sense as that makes for the Padres to bring him in, I can’t see it happening.
If I remember correctly his family is more comfortable in the north east because of his wife’s health situation(skin cancer some time ago)
October 10, 2007 at 7:23 am
Re: 94 didn’t the Padres trade Freddie Guzman
October 10, 2007 at 8:29 am
95: Agree. You go after a Patterson-type player when you’re a few years from competing and can take a chance on him realizing his potential. He’s been bad for way too long for us to roll the dice on him.
97: Patterson’s got a big defensive edge on Guzman, but at least Freddie knew what the heck the strike zone was.