Weekend Winter Wrapup (22 Oct 07)
Mon, Oct 22, 2007
by Geoff Young
Happy Monday, folks. I hope you are able to steer clear of all those fires…
Friday, October 19
- Mesa 2, Saguaros 0 (box). Will Venable, DH’ing and batting cleanup, went 0-for-4 with a strikeout. Matt Antonelli started at second and went 1-for-2 with a walk in the #7 hole. Nick Hundley batted ninth and went 0-for-2 with a walk. Will Startup needed six pitches to work a scoreless ninth.
- Aguilas 4, Escogido 2 (box). Vince Sinisi played left field and batted fifth for Escogido, doubling twice in four at-bats.
- Navojoa 11, Culiacan 1 (box). Oscar Robles, playing shortstop and batting second, collected three singles and a walk in six trips to the plate. Luis Cruz, starting at second base and batting seventh, went 2-for-4 and scored a run.
Saturday, October 20
- Javelinas 5, Saguaros 4 (box). All the Padres rode pine.
- Estrellas 5, Escogido 4 (box). Sinisi, batting third, did a nice Russell Branyan impression: two-run homer, walk, and three strikeouts. Ex-Padre Juan Melo, playing first base, went 4-for-4 with a walk.
- Culiacan 4, Navojoa 3 (box). Robles went 0-for-4 with a strikeout; he’s playing shortstop exclusively for Navojoa and batting in the #1 or #2 spot. Luis Cruz, again at second base and in the #7 hole, singled and walked in four trips to the plate. He also committed an error in the seventh on a grounder off the bat of ex-Padre Ruben Rivera, who came around to score the run that forced this one into extra innings. Ex-Padre Pete LaForest started at first base for Culiacan, while Castle Park’s Benji Gil collected three hits as DH.
Sunday, October 21
- Navojoa 5, Culiacan 4 (box). Robles went 0-for-5; Cruz, starting in center and finishing at second base, went 0-for-4.
Sunday’s results from the Dominican Republic and Venezuela were unavailable as of this writing.
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October 22, 2007 at 9:27 am
Just a little speculation to start off Monday…I am curious if Coco Crisp would be a perfect fit in SD. His offensive numbers in Boston have been pretty pathetic, but the 2 years he was a starter in Cleveland showed he has the ability to put up solid offensive numbers. Could he be a guy that does not respond well to the pressures of the NL East beasts, but rather can thrive in a much less pressure packed environment?
Paint me a guy that is very interested in CC…Baldelli is still the most intriguing for me, but he may still be hurt…
October 22, 2007 at 9:44 am
Crisp’s BABIP in Cleveland was quite a bit higher than the norm. Across all hitters it’s usually between 290 and 300. Crisp was at 320 and 327 his good years in Cleveland. As it dropped to the normal range, the rest of his offensive numbers declined.
If his BABIP had dropped below the norm, I’d be more confident that he’d bounce back.
October 22, 2007 at 9:49 am
If the Pads could get him for p-mac/similar would you make the deal? It seems pretty low risk.
October 22, 2007 at 9:53 am
Heck yes I would Steve…
TW: his SLG dropped 80 points and his OBP dropped significantly as well. I think there is a lot more to it than just BABIP. And when you factor in the cost to get him, his improving defense, and lack of affordable options, I think it is a very reasonable gamble.
October 22, 2007 at 10:00 am
3: It’s got to cost more to get him than P-Mac. I’d imagine that it will take at least a prospect who would be in our top-20.
October 22, 2007 at 10:01 am
Also, I don’t know if this has been posted already, but has anybody else looked over the Zips projections for the Padres next year?
http://www.baseballthinkfactor.....go_padres/
October 22, 2007 at 10:04 am
3: Yeah, but I don’t think the Sox will take that little for him. They don’t need to clear his salary. They have two dinged up corner OF.
Maybe they would, but I think they’d be asking for Headley or Bell.
October 22, 2007 at 10:06 am
Re: I dont know with the sox starting Ellsbury over Crisp? Also P-Mac is an MLB ready 4th OF and backup 1B, who is $10 mil chaper over the next 2 years.
October 22, 2007 at 10:08 am
Re: 7 but they know they will not get Headley or Bell, they may ask to start but they know the Pads wont give up thier top young takent for a CF they are trying to get rid of.
October 22, 2007 at 10:12 am
4: A 25 point drop in BABIP is a big deal. It almost completely explains his drop in OBP from 2005 (345) to 2007 (330), even though his walk rate went up. If we’re looking for an explanation of why his HR’s were cut in half, I’d rather focus on tangibles than “pressure.” Especially since Petco is going to wreck his HR power no matter how relaxed he feels.
The cost to get him isn’t settled. What reason is there to believe that Boston is just going to dump him? They can afford to pay him to be their 5th outfielder.
October 22, 2007 at 10:16 am
8 ,9: So Ellsbury starts next year and Crisp is their backup, 4th/5th outfielder, who is the rare backup who can actually handle CF.
Again, what says their “trying to get rid of” him? He’s not hitting now so Francona went to Ellsbury. He started in CF all year for them when they could have gone to Ellsbury, at least in the second half.
10M over 2 years is barely important to the Red Sox. Now, if we wanted to take Lugo, they’d probably give us Crisp and pay a large part of the salaries.
October 22, 2007 at 10:18 am
Following up on 11: The Red Sox aren’t in a position where they have to take whatever they can get for Crisp. They’re just not. He’s not a burden. To some GMs (to some people here) he looks like the classic leadoff hitting CF, capable of hitting .300, capable of stealing 25+ bags. Why would they move him for PMac when he might be of interest to the Twins in a Santana package?
October 22, 2007 at 10:18 am
I was one of the people who started the CC talk, but with his offensive no-show in the playoffs, I certainly want to explore other options as well…
October 22, 2007 at 10:23 am
Re: 11 well if hes moved as part of a package deal then all bets are off. I dont think that teams are that high on him. I think if it was a player for player deal he does not get you more then a 2nd tear prospect.
October 22, 2007 at 10:27 am
14: It’s the difference between what he’s worth to most teams and what he’s worth to the Red Sox. They don’t have to clear salary anyway, and they’ll be overrun with money if they win the WS. I don’t see the incentive for Boston to move him if they don’t get someone who they want, rather than somebody else’s expendable spare parts.
If I’m the Red Sox, I dangle Crisp, Bucholtz, and Lester for Santana.
October 22, 2007 at 10:28 am
8. P-Mac, no September call-up = no future in the organization. Don’t expect him back.
October 22, 2007 at 10:28 am
12: Good call… I saw on MLBTradeRumors.com that the Yankees might offer M. Cabrera + Phillip Hughes + [another top prospect], I don’t know if that’s accurate, but the Yankees HAVE to be looking at Santana and if that offer is anything close to realistic, than a Boston offer (even one designed to drive up the price) would have to start with Lester & _______ (?) if Crisp is the 3rd player in the deal - CC’s value is pretty low at the minute…
If I’m Minnesota, I’d ask for Lester, Papelbon, & Elsbury (which of course, Boston would decline)… But what else could Boston offer?
October 22, 2007 at 10:30 am
Tom/2: That really isn’t true about BABiP for hitters. It’s not like with pitchers where most variation is due to luck or randomness. Look at many great hitters’ careers … they have very high BABiP’s because they hit the ball hard. I’m not saying that is Crisp or that there isnt a lot of variability in BABiP for hitters … there is, I believe. But it’s definitely not to the same degree as with pitchers.
October 22, 2007 at 10:30 am
17: Bucholtz equals Hughes. Crisp is about equal to Cabrera. The third player would be the difference maker. NY may not want to give up Chamberlain. Lester would trump a lot of Yankee prospects.
October 22, 2007 at 10:32 am
18: BABIP stays high for elite hitters and really fast hitters. For most hitters, it’s between 290 and 300. Here…..
http://sports.yahoo.com/fantas.....lle_022607
October 22, 2007 at 10:33 am
17: Buchholtz, Lester, and Crisp or Ellsbury might be competetive with the Yanks offer that you mentioned.
October 22, 2007 at 10:34 am
19: Sorry Tom, you beat me to it
October 22, 2007 at 10:36 am
Re: 15 I understand that the Sox don’t have to trade him my point is that I think P-mac is all I think the Pads should give up. Also makes some sense from the redsox perspective because they would be getting a backup OF and 1B who they control for a while and fits into their team batting strategy, Im not sure what Magaden thinks of P-mac but there is also a link there.
October 22, 2007 at 10:39 am
23: Again, why would the Red Sox want that when Crisp might be able to get them much more? Really, people are saying that our solution for CF, a player we hope to be an integral part of another competitive season, should cost us…..Paul McAnulty.
The Red Sox can get players equivalent to McAnulty lots of places. There’s some chance that the Padres will cut PMac loose this winter, so Boston could sign him (or players like him) as a minor league free agent. And they don’t care as much about controlling him while he’s cheap.
October 22, 2007 at 10:42 am
OT: Fire updates:
http://catdirtsez.blogspot.com/
Stay safe…
October 22, 2007 at 10:44 am
20: I’m just not sure I buy that. The author doesn’t do anything to prove that BABiP stays between .290 or .300 or so for most hitters (although, admittedly I just glanced through it). I think every hitter has their own BABiP range that varies from year to year (and probably more than things like bb rate or k rate). Still, it’s not a good assumption, imo, to say that most “regular” hitters should have BABiP’s in that certain range.
October 22, 2007 at 11:06 am
26: He’s just referencing numerous other studies.
You’re right, most hitters do have their own range of BABIP, based on LD percentages. It’s usually LD +120.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....uld-speak/
But when you average out everybody who comes to the plate in a major league game, they’re getting hits on between 29 and 30(ish) percent of the balls they hit into play. You can look at the Team Stats page on THT to see the 2007 averages:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/teams/
305 for the AL, 301 for the NL.
Crisp’s LD percentage has fallen the last two years. He has speed to bump it up, but the other big driver of BABIP - power - has disappeared.
October 22, 2007 at 12:09 pm
I hope all of you are safe in San Diego. Up here in Beaumont, it’s mercifully quiet, although ridiculously windy. Things could change at the drop of a hat, but so far, so good.
October 22, 2007 at 1:06 pm
New name for centerfield (that Geoff actually brought up a couple of days ago): Ryan Church. 113 career OPS+ in 1000 AB, he’s 29 next year, was an excellent defender in left and probably about average in center, and doesn’t really have a spot in Washington with Logan in center, Kearns in right, and Pena in left (and that’s before they consider signing Torii Hunter).
Another name that would be a really cheap gamble: Chris Denorfia of the A’s. He was injured most of last year, but he has a solid minor league track record with the Reds, and the A’s have a crowded outfield situation.
October 22, 2007 at 1:31 pm
Praying for y’all back home…I know my brother has been evacuated..hope you all in the DS community is safe.
Re: 20 — I think if you look at what the author says about Crisp about sums it up. He was hurt last year. I will admit to being a bit worried about the numbers from this year, but knowing injuries linger and the other things that have been going on for him, I think he would be a good gamble at the right price.
Still would like us to free Pat The Bat and let him play in LF. But that is just me.
October 22, 2007 at 1:35 pm
Re: 30 Wow…I guess moving to the south slaughtered my english…in just 3 weeks. Holy Carp Batman. Sorry for the terrible representation of my USDHS and SDSU Education.
October 22, 2007 at 1:38 pm
29: Church is a good player, but the CF question is a gamble. With above average defenders on either side, it might not be a big deal. If Gimpy Knee Giles is in right with Hairston in left…..possibly yech.
I really liked Denorfia last year. I had the feeling that Oakland got him for the future, though. If he’s available, absolutely.
October 22, 2007 at 1:43 pm
30: It’s been two bad years. Besides his wrist injury, which isn’t a recommendation, what other things have been going on?
The right price is a large part of the problem. I seriously doubt we get him for McAnulty or any other player like that.
October 22, 2007 at 3:50 pm
im smack dab in the middle of san diego, so im safe for the time being, which is a relief, but i probably wont have to work this whole week (i work at the SDSU ticket office at Qualcomm which is being used as an evacuation center).
my question is does anyone subscribe to padres.scout.com/madfriars.com? they recently put up the six year free agent list, and i wanted to see who was on it.
thanks