I saw Brian Giles last night. There should be more to this story, but there isn’t. All I can say is that presumably he likes pizza.
To the links:
- MB at Friar Forecast is ready for some hot-stove action (that sounded better in my head): hitters | pitchers. The back end of the rotation needs serious work. Why do I fear we haven’t seen the last of Shawn Estes?
- Holliday Never Touched the Plate (via Masticore317 in the comments). This is an excuse to pimp my T-shirts.
- What’s the deal with Kousuke Fukudome? (Friar Watch, via Steve C in the comments). As Steve notes, “The more I think about it the less I like signing Fukudome if he cant play CF.” Totally agree. Speaking of center field, Peter and I were talking the other day, and he threw out an interesting name — the Cubs’ Eric Patterson. He’s Corey’s younger brother — less power, but has a clue at the plate. He’s only played 23 games in center, which makes him something of a project. Assuming he’s even available…
- Chat: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus, via LynchMob in the comments). The relevant exchange:
James (Lubbock, Texas): Kevin, off the top of your head who has the most improved farm system from this time last year to today? My Rangers have to be in the conversation, if not at the top of the list.
Kevin Goldstein: The three teams that immediately come to mind are the Rangers, Padres and Nationals.
It easier to make this sort of list when you’ve got the longest climb, but still…
- Texas League Top 20 Prospects List (Baseball America, via Peter Friberg in the comments). Padres are well represented here: 3B Chase Headley ranks #2, 2B Matt Antonelli is #6, and RHP Joshua Geer checks in at #19.
- 2007 Minor League All-Stars (Baseball America, via Steve C in the comments). Antonelli is named to first team, Headley to second team. Sweet…
- Missions Named Texas League Team of the Year (Our Sports Central). Nice welcome to the new organization, no?
- Portland Beavers Player of the Year (MadFriars). Denis and John talk about the Padres Triple-A affiliate — some quotes from Grady Fuson and Portland skipper Rick Renteria. There weren’t a lot of prospects at this level in ’07, but I wonder if Vince Sinisi could help the big club off the bench next year?
- Baseball Mogul 2007. Warning: This will eat up loads of your time. Baseball Mogul 2007 is now available as a free download. I’ve been playing around with this sim since before the Padres signed Ron Gant, and it rocks. [Hat tip to myself at Knuckle Curve.]
Winter Leagues
- Javelinas 14, Saguaros 2 (box score). Battle for supremacy in Peoria. Heh. Nick Hundley and Antonelli both took 0-fers in limited at-bats. (Neither started, but both entered when game got out of hand.) Will Startup and Neil Jamison coughed up six runs over the final two innings. All three of Startup’s were unearned, and he can thank Antonelli for that.
No Padres played in the Mexican League on Thursday, and I’m not sure about the Venezuelan League. Wiki Gonzalez went 0-for-4 playing for Lara, but this hardly qualifies as news.
I have no idea whether any current Padres farmhands are playing in Venezuela. While looking, I came across an old article by Clay Davenport on translating winter league stats. The usual caveats apply, but it’s a fascinating exercise.
Anyway…
I found a guy I’m intrigued with…
.297/.362/.455 w/ 28 2B, 14 HR, a 54/85 BB/SO ratio, and 24/33 SB
who am I?
I’m guessing that’s Eric Patterson. As a bonus he also plays some 2B.
Wow… bingo – but he’s never been a good 2B… He’s a CF now
#53: The drawback, as we noted at the top, is that he’s got a grand total of 23 professional games in center under his belt. Still, Patterson is an intriguing player.
53: With the limited amount of CF he has played, would he be servicable in Petco?
He’s a phenomenal athlete and people have projected his move to CF since he was drafted…
There might be better options and the Cubs could ask for the house, but he makes a lot of sense to me.
The more I look at Mike Cameron, the less I want to re-sign him, the rest of the list has warts (performance: Rowand, C. Patterson, etc. or price-tag: A. Jones, Hunter, etc.) or is virtually unatainable (Adam Jones).
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Padres get Barfield back. In my opinion, Antonelli is not ready and Barfield may just rebound once he is back in San Diego.
I don’t want Mike Cameron back. I hope the Pads let him go.
That’s funny, the more I look at Cameron compared to the other options the more I want him re-signed. Rowand, Hunter, and Jones are all going to be obscenely expensive, and Cameron is right there in performance with them. And other guys mentioned as trade targets aren’t as good as Cameron and cost talent to acquire.
Unless we could get Felix Pie. I’d like him in center.
Look at Pie’s numbers… Yes, he’s a freak athletically, but his numbers scream, “bust.” He doesn’t have any plate-discipline…
As for Cameron:
2000: .365 OBP w/ 78/133 BB/SO
2001: .353 OBP w/ 69/155 BB/SO
2002: .340 OBP w/ 79/176 BB/SO
2003: .344 OBP w/ 70/139 BB/SO
2004: .319 OBP w/ 57/143 BB/SO
2005: .342 OBP w/ 29/85 BB/SO (injury year)
2006: .355 OBP w/ 71/142 BB/SO
2007: .328 OBP w/ 67/160 BB/SO
He aint’ getting younger and those numbers ain’t gettin’ better…
Look if we can get Cameron back for something in the 2-2+1 at $10 per… Then yeah… But if a deal requires 4 years (if that’s what other teams are offering) or if he’s average exceeds $12 per, then I’ll pass.
60: As with everyone it comes down to the cost (be it in years, dollars, talent or whatever else).
Geez, what are y’all doing here on a Saturday night?
OT, I’m playing around with some things:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/player-cards/
60: That’s true, I was going off of the assumption that it would only take something like 3 years, 10M per to sign him. Depending on the other options, I probably wouldn’t go to four years. But if we’re looking at the best other option being giving up Headley for Coco Crisp, that’s a pretty depressing alternative.
Pie has a career minor league OBP of .355, against a batting average of .300. It’s a little low, but still acceptable. He’s got a similar K/BB ratio to Adam Jones.
58: I’m an internet-only evaluator of our minor league system and a new one at that, Antonelli only spending half a season above high A makes me a little apprehensive. What concerns you about Antonelli?
61: Agreed, we don’t have the info, and it’s not very interesting to debate, but it’s the cost that’ll dictate who plays CF next year
#64 My evidence re: Antonelli is all anecdotal – I saw him play “LIVE” in a few Texas League games and he just looked a little physically underdeveloped – he is only 22 years old and looks even younger- I doubt he even weighs the 190 pounds that his bio. at BA lists him as. As a sidenote, he reminds me of Steve Sax – Antonelli has the makeup of a ML player and he will get his shot –2008 just seems to be a stretch at this point.
Terry Francona calls Coco Crisp the best defensive outfielder he has ever seen. I would probably give up Headley for Crisp.
66: What kind of player do you see Headley becoming?
#67 I know that Headley probably belongs in the major leagues the big question is how much power he will have.
If he is not moved during the off season, then it would be nice to give him one more year in the minors as well.
#65: Sax is an interesting comp. Antonelli reminds me of another second baseman from that era, Bill Doran.
#67: Bill Mueller with perhaps a touch more power.
66: Since when do we trust a manager’s public assessment of one of his own players? Especially a player who was ripped for his defense the prior year(s)?
67: I think we’ll know more after 2008. Look at these numbers:
2005: .268/.375/.441 in 220 AB @ Eugene
2006: .292/.390/.435 in 483 AB @ Lake Elsinore
2007: .330/.437/.580 in 433 AB @ San Antonio
(He’s had a few AB at other levels; 15 in Fort Wayne at the end of ’05 and 18 in San Diego but the above numbers are the most telling.)
Will Headley’s slugging rate revert back to his ’05-6 rates? Will Headley continue to make gains on his batting average and on-base rates (he had a .401 BABIP in 2007)?
Does anyone have Headley’s 05 & 06 BABIP numbers?
I have a hard time thinking Headley’s gains are all legitimate and will be maintained (I’m not trying to be pessimistic, just realistic – I hope Headley proves me wrong)… A .401 BABIP is sick. Can that be legimate?
66: completely valid argument… And Crisp may not have been great in previous seasons, but this year he’s been Gold Glove caliber…
#71: Headley’s BABIP from ’05 & ’06:
’05 (A-): .319
’06 (A+): .343
Geoff, as for the book:
You could do the Bud Black evaluation just like Bill James did in his book. I don’t he would mind.
Are you going to have plenty of analysis, etc. of Tony Gwynn’s career in the Cooperstown section? Sounds like plenty of fodder there.
You could still do plenty of stuff on 1969. It’s just that you don’t have to do the work. But it might be nice for some to see it all compiled in one place. Finals stats for that year, etc.
Should I feel guilty about this?
http://firejaymariotti.blogspot.com/2007/10/revisiting-holliday-slide.html
These guys are so easy to poke with a stick. It’s like teasing Raider fans about the Super Bowl against the Bucs.