Friday Links (12 Oct 07)
Fri, Oct 12, 2007
by Geoff Young
I saw Brian Giles last night. There should be more to this story, but there isn’t. All I can say is that presumably he likes pizza.
To the links:
- MB at Friar Forecast is ready for some hot-stove action (that sounded better in my head): hitters | pitchers. The back end of the rotation needs serious work. Why do I fear we haven’t seen the last of Shawn Estes?
- Holliday Never Touched the Plate (via Masticore317 in the comments). This is an excuse to pimp my T-shirts.
- What’s the deal with Kousuke Fukudome? (Friar Watch, via Steve C in the comments). As Steve notes, “The more I think about it the less I like signing Fukudome if he cant play CF.” Totally agree. Speaking of center field, Peter and I were talking the other day, and he threw out an interesting name — the Cubs’ Eric Patterson. He’s Corey’s younger brother — less power, but has a clue at the plate. He’s only played 23 games in center, which makes him something of a project. Assuming he’s even available…
- Chat: Kevin Goldstein (Baseball Prospectus, via LynchMob in the comments). The relevant exchange:
James (Lubbock, Texas): Kevin, off the top of your head who has the most improved farm system from this time last year to today? My Rangers have to be in the conversation, if not at the top of the list.
Kevin Goldstein: The three teams that immediately come to mind are the Rangers, Padres and Nationals.
It easier to make this sort of list when you’ve got the longest climb, but still…
- Texas League Top 20 Prospects List (Baseball America, via Peter Friberg in the comments). Padres are well represented here: 3B Chase Headley ranks #2, 2B Matt Antonelli is #6, and RHP Joshua Geer checks in at #19.
- 2007 Minor League All-Stars (Baseball America, via Steve C in the comments). Antonelli is named to first team, Headley to second team. Sweet…
- Missions Named Texas League Team of the Year (Our Sports Central). Nice welcome to the new organization, no?
- Portland Beavers Player of the Year (MadFriars). Denis and John talk about the Padres Triple-A affiliate — some quotes from Grady Fuson and Portland skipper Rick Renteria. There weren’t a lot of prospects at this level in ‘07, but I wonder if Vince Sinisi could help the big club off the bench next year?
- Baseball Mogul 2007. Warning: This will eat up loads of your time. Baseball Mogul 2007 is now available as a free download. I’ve been playing around with this sim since before the Padres signed Ron Gant, and it rocks. [Hat tip to myself at Knuckle Curve.]
Winter Leagues
- Javelinas 14, Saguaros 2 (box score). Battle for supremacy in Peoria. Heh. Nick Hundley and Antonelli both took 0-fers in limited at-bats. (Neither started, but both entered when game got out of hand.) Will Startup and Neil Jamison coughed up six runs over the final two innings. All three of Startup’s were unearned, and he can thank Antonelli for that.
No Padres played in the Mexican League on Thursday, and I’m not sure about the Venezuelan League. Wiki Gonzalez went 0-for-4 playing for Lara, but this hardly qualifies as news.
I have no idea whether any current Padres farmhands are playing in Venezuela. While looking, I came across an old article by Clay Davenport on translating winter league stats. The usual caveats apply, but it’s a fascinating exercise.
Anyway…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 12, 2007 at 9:37 am
I read something the other day (I forget where) that called the NL West the NEW AL East. The columnist essentially said the next few years you could conceivably have three 90+ win teams in the NL west every year and possibly 4 if you throw the Dodgers in there.
Scary thought.
My point, the Friars can no longer sit still in the off season and draft damaged pitchers in the first round if they want to compete.
Anyways, something to think about.
October 12, 2007 at 9:50 am
Re: 1 The difference between the NL west and the AL east will be about $200M both the D-backs and Rockies have lower payrolls than the Pads.
I agree that the Padres are going to fall behind the 8 ball quickley with the Rockies, D-Backs and Dodgers farm systems. Im not sure what they can do in the offseason to help stay on top like they have been for the past 3 years. Not drafting damaged goods would be a start, but with still a somewhat pedestrain farm system and a limited payroll Im think we may be in for a rew 3rd and 4th place finishes unless alot of things go thier way with thier top prospects.
October 12, 2007 at 9:51 am
Also the padres have pretty much done a major roster overhaul the past 3 or 4 offseasons I dont think this year will be any different.
October 12, 2007 at 10:05 am
KT usually makes a big deal sometime around Thanksgiving so I figure we have about a month untill the offseason fun begins.
October 12, 2007 at 10:16 am
From May 22:
This is going to be the toughest division in the NL for some time. The Dodgers have young talent, but I’m not impressed with their front office. Arizona and Colorado, OTOH, seem to know what they’re doing.
October 12, 2007 at 10:23 am
The Diamondbacks are certainly scary going forward mainly because they stand to improve immensely just by their players gaining experience and improving with age. Guys like Young and Drew are going to make big strides and Upton is probably going to win a couple of MVP awards before he is done.
They do have some issues with the rotation outside of Webb and Owings and they have made some mistakes already, giving Byrnes 30M when you have Young/Upton already in your outfield and Carlos Gonzalez/Carlos Quentin already in the organization looks like a poor way to spend resources.
They look like a 90 win team for a long time.
The Dodgers are another scary bet because they can outspend everyone, although spending 45M on Juan Pierre does give me hope that they really don’t know what they’re doing.
Guys like Martin, LaRoche, Loney, Kemp and all their pitching prospects are going to be a pain to deal with forever.
I worry less about the Rockies over the long haul because I still can’t believe they will be able to cobble together enough pitching every year to compete and Matt Holliday is long gone after 2 more years.
October 12, 2007 at 10:26 am
Re: 5 all the dodgers need is a good GM and/or CEO and they come to the top of the list quickly, may or may not happen but they have a loaded gun and they may realize its alot more fun to shoot at targets instead unloading shots randomly in the air.
October 12, 2007 at 10:29 am
Re: 5 Uri Geller called and asked if you want to compete on his new NBC show.
http://www.nbc.com/Phenomenon/index.shtml
October 12, 2007 at 10:31 am
Re: 6 signing Byrens gives the D-backs room to move some of thier top OF prospects for pitching help.
October 12, 2007 at 10:34 am
G.Y. did one of my posts get flagged?
October 12, 2007 at 10:38 am
re 8: 10M a year still buys a pretty good pitcher, no?
October 12, 2007 at 10:41 am
Re: 10 n/m there it is
October 12, 2007 at 10:41 am
#10: Yep, sorry ’bout that.
And I don’t bend spoons.
October 12, 2007 at 10:43 am
11: 10M a year is going to buy Kyle Lohse this offseason. Career ERA+: 95. Career high ERA+: 105. Number of seasons topping 200 IP: 1.
October 12, 2007 at 10:44 am
Re: 11 not with the money guys are getting now, also I would imagine getting a FA pitcher to go to Chase Field would be like getting hitters to go to petco, your going to have to really over pay them.
October 12, 2007 at 10:49 am
Well Schilling might be interested at 13M since he already played there so I’m not so sure a pitcher is that worried about Chase Field, it doesn’t have the same rep as Coors
October 12, 2007 at 10:49 am
Re: 13 I can teach you how
October 12, 2007 at 10:51 am
Re: 16 alot of pitchers said they would rather pitch at Coores (post humidor) than Chase (actualy Hensley said that yeaterday on too much show)
October 12, 2007 at 10:55 am
re 18: A lot=Hensley?
October 12, 2007 at 10:57 am
Re: 19 I have heard more say it than just Hensley, thats the only source I could think of off the top of my head.
October 12, 2007 at 11:40 am
6:
I would say that the Dbacks extremely poor hitting, while playing half their games at Chase, suggests that their “Young Stars” may be a little over hyped.
October 12, 2007 at 11:42 am
wow Rowand wants 6 years $84M, good luck with that.
http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-.....22472.html
October 12, 2007 at 11:59 am
22: You know, the joke might be on us.
October 12, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Re: 23 ?
October 12, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Speaking of Hensley, he sounded pretty upbeat on 1090 yesterday. Apparently the tear in the labrum wasn’t as severe as they had feared. He says he’s scheduled to begin throwing off a mound in March, which wouldn’t put him too much behind his normal schedule.
He also said he first started feeling something in his shoulder last September but everyone assumed it was tendonitis. Maybe I’m overly optimistic but I think there’s a chance he can contribute next year, maybe not at the same level as 2006 but he shouldn’t be as bad as he was this year.
October 12, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Re: 25 it would be huge if Hensley could be a solid 3$ guy next year
October 12, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Re: 26 sorry that was suppose to be a solid #4 guy, I guess I dont know how to work my shift button
October 12, 2007 at 1:19 pm
25:
To me, this is another example of the medical staff’s inability to properly diagnose pitching injuries. They messed around with Carillo for 8 months, before deciding he needed surgery. Schmidt was hurt almost immediatly, but they waited 3 months before the surgery. Now, Hensley pitches an entire season needing surgery, and no one notices.
October 12, 2007 at 1:30 pm
I almost forgot about Vince Sinisi. If he hadn’t been injured then we would have surely seen him get some at bats last year. Is he strictly a corner outfielder ?
October 12, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Completely unrelated, but thought you guys would get a kick out of this pic:
http://picasaweb.google.com/bh.....7851029890
October 12, 2007 at 2:04 pm
30 … that’s pretty funny, actually … I assume you think this helps us look in a mirror? Ya, perhaps … but I want to get that little fella here on Ducksnorts ASAP … so’s he can enjoy the fun parts of bein’ a Padre fan too!
October 12, 2007 at 2:07 pm
28 … what makes you think it’s easy to “properly diagnose pitching injuries”??? It’s my understanding that this is *very* complex … and I see hurt pitchers in every org, don’t I? It’s been a while since I read a UTK article at BP … but I don’t recall Will Carroll saying Padres medical staff are outstanding-bad. Do you have a reference that indicates otherwise?
October 12, 2007 at 2:13 pm
24: Every year players get unbelievable money. It wouldn’t surprise me if Rowand got at least $60-$70 million.
October 12, 2007 at 2:16 pm
32 … Maddux thinks the Padres trainers are good …
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
October 12, 2007 at 2:17 pm
Re: 33 oh yeah I agree but the Pads only have about $20M to spend this offseason, I wouldn’t recomend they spend $14M of it on him.
October 12, 2007 at 2:25 pm
32 … and here’s another article that I think speaks favorably about the Padres’ medical staff …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
… and I exchanged email with Will Carroll about this, and his feedback to me about it was that the staff is “pretty good … always near the midpoint of my stats”. That’s an opinion I respect.
October 12, 2007 at 2:27 pm
35: A 30 y/o coming off a career year probably isn’t the kind of guy you want to give a 6 year deal.
October 12, 2007 at 2:31 pm
32:
I am not saying it is easy, I am saying it is extremely important, and the failure to properly diagnose injuries hurts the club. In Carillo’s case, they lost the better part of a year rehabing an injury that required surgery. Instead of being healthy right now, he is still in recovery. In Schmidt’s case Padre brass came right out and said, his injury was not serious, three months later surgery. Fuson went on the radio, saying Bush needed to learn the difference between discomfort and an injury. A week later, bam.
From an outsiders’s point of view, this looks like a trend and a costly one.
October 12, 2007 at 2:34 pm
OT … the D-back fans are getting slap’d around a bit …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
October 12, 2007 at 2:36 pm
Re 28:
Carrillo didn’t want to get cut (literal meaning, not figuratively). The Padres wanted him to have surgery, but they never force a player to have a surgery that the player does not want to have.
Re 29:
Yes.
October 12, 2007 at 2:38 pm
37: EXACTLY!
Before anyone get’s too excited about the possibility of Rowand, look at his stats. He had good years in ‘01, ‘04, and ‘07 and awful years in ‘02-3 and ‘05-6. What can you expect going forward? No thank you.
October 12, 2007 at 2:39 pm
38 … agree’d you didn’t say it was easy, sorry for poor choice of words there …
… agree’d it’s extremely important … and agree’d it looks like a trend.
but from where i sit, it seems to be a trend in MLB in general, not just the Padres. based on the links above and my reading of UTK @ BP, I think the Padres medical staff are average-at-worst …
it is still clearly an opportunity for further competitive advantage …
October 12, 2007 at 2:40 pm
The trainers have to base their diagnosis off what the player tells them. And Philly Billy actually made a good point in the interview, that it’s got to be hard for a guy like Hensley to admit to himself and the staff that he could have a serious injury because he’s afraid he’ll lose his job.
The impression I got was that it wasn’t a high level of pain and the symptoms were consistent with shoulder tendonitis. Clay even said that the painkillers they prescribed seemed to take care of it initially.
One could argue that with the money at stake they should opt for a full MRI and everything else they can do at the first sign of injury. On the other hand, every pitcher is going to have some pain at some point. It’s got to be hard to seperate the injuries from the standard variety aches and pains.
The injuries to the young guys bother me more because I think it shows a weak spot in their scouting. I’d like to see them hire one of the mechanics gurus as a consultant and at least take their views under consideration.
October 12, 2007 at 2:46 pm
42:
Based on Mr. Nessman’s response, the trend is not as strong as I percieved. The Carillo time dealy has been a sore spot with me.
October 12, 2007 at 2:50 pm
Re: 40 im not sure if anyone on DS wants rowand at this point
October 12, 2007 at 3:12 pm
45: I don’t want to say that I wouldn’t support any FA contract beyond three years, but definitely not Rowand.
October 12, 2007 at 4:37 pm
Have anyone heard this:
Padres closer Hoffman has arthroscopic surgery on pitching elbow.
What the heck?
October 12, 2007 at 4:45 pm
30: That’s so cute. Thanks for sharing. See, even the baby knows that Holiday never touch the plate.
October 12, 2007 at 4:46 pm
47 … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
48 … LOL
October 12, 2007 at 7:32 pm
Anyone like the idea of Jose Guillen for RF (or LF)?
That doesn’t help us in CF though. I still don’t mind Corey Patterson, but for the bottom of the lineup (7th or 8th) not leadoff. Then spend a decent amount on two starting pitchers instead.
October 12, 2007 at 10:20 pm
I found a guy I’m intrigued with…
.297/.362/.455 w/ 28 2B, 14 HR, a 54/85 BB/SO ratio, and 24/33 SB
who am I?
October 13, 2007 at 4:39 am
I’m guessing that’s Eric Patterson. As a bonus he also plays some 2B.
October 13, 2007 at 7:19 am
Wow… bingo - but he’s never been a good 2B… He’s a CF now
October 13, 2007 at 9:52 am
#53: The drawback, as we noted at the top, is that he’s got a grand total of 23 professional games in center under his belt. Still, Patterson is an intriguing player.
October 13, 2007 at 5:01 pm
53: With the limited amount of CF he has played, would he be servicable in Petco?
October 13, 2007 at 8:31 pm
He’s a phenomenal athlete and people have projected his move to CF since he was drafted…
October 13, 2007 at 8:35 pm
There might be better options and the Cubs could ask for the house, but he makes a lot of sense to me.
The more I look at Mike Cameron, the less I want to re-sign him, the rest of the list has warts (performance: Rowand, C. Patterson, etc. or price-tag: A. Jones, Hunter, etc.) or is virtually unatainable (Adam Jones).
October 13, 2007 at 9:24 pm
I wouldn’t mind seeing the Padres get Barfield back. In my opinion, Antonelli is not ready and Barfield may just rebound once he is back in San Diego.
I don’t want Mike Cameron back. I hope the Pads let him go.
October 13, 2007 at 10:20 pm
That’s funny, the more I look at Cameron compared to the other options the more I want him re-signed. Rowand, Hunter, and Jones are all going to be obscenely expensive, and Cameron is right there in performance with them. And other guys mentioned as trade targets aren’t as good as Cameron and cost talent to acquire.
Unless we could get Felix Pie. I’d like him in center.
October 13, 2007 at 11:05 pm
Look at Pie’s numbers… Yes, he’s a freak athletically, but his numbers scream, “bust.” He doesn’t have any plate-discipline…
As for Cameron:
2000: .365 OBP w/ 78/133 BB/SO
2001: .353 OBP w/ 69/155 BB/SO
2002: .340 OBP w/ 79/176 BB/SO
2003: .344 OBP w/ 70/139 BB/SO
2004: .319 OBP w/ 57/143 BB/SO
2005: .342 OBP w/ 29/85 BB/SO (injury year)
2006: .355 OBP w/ 71/142 BB/SO
2007: .328 OBP w/ 67/160 BB/SO
He aint’ getting younger and those numbers ain’t gettin’ better…
Look if we can get Cameron back for something in the 2-2+1 at $10 per… Then yeah… But if a deal requires 4 years (if that’s what other teams are offering) or if he’s average exceeds $12 per, then I’ll pass.
October 13, 2007 at 11:33 pm
60: As with everyone it comes down to the cost (be it in years, dollars, talent or whatever else).
October 14, 2007 at 12:12 am
Geez, what are y’all doing here on a Saturday night?
OT, I’m playing around with some things:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/player-cards/
October 14, 2007 at 1:16 am
60: That’s true, I was going off of the assumption that it would only take something like 3 years, 10M per to sign him. Depending on the other options, I probably wouldn’t go to four years. But if we’re looking at the best other option being giving up Headley for Coco Crisp, that’s a pretty depressing alternative.
Pie has a career minor league OBP of .355, against a batting average of .300. It’s a little low, but still acceptable. He’s got a similar K/BB ratio to Adam Jones.
October 14, 2007 at 9:20 am
58: I’m an internet-only evaluator of our minor league system and a new one at that, Antonelli only spending half a season above high A makes me a little apprehensive. What concerns you about Antonelli?
61: Agreed, we don’t have the info, and it’s not very interesting to debate, but it’s the cost that’ll dictate who plays CF next year
October 14, 2007 at 12:03 pm
#64 My evidence re: Antonelli is all anecdotal - I saw him play “LIVE” in a few Texas League games and he just looked a little physically underdeveloped - he is only 22 years old and looks even younger- I doubt he even weighs the 190 pounds that his bio. at BA lists him as. As a sidenote, he reminds me of Steve Sax - Antonelli has the makeup of a ML player and he will get his shot –2008 just seems to be a stretch at this point.
October 14, 2007 at 12:08 pm
Terry Francona calls Coco Crisp the best defensive outfielder he has ever seen. I would probably give up Headley for Crisp.
October 14, 2007 at 12:28 pm
66: What kind of player do you see Headley becoming?
October 14, 2007 at 1:10 pm
#67 I know that Headley probably belongs in the major leagues the big question is how much power he will have.
If he is not moved during the off season, then it would be nice to give him one more year in the minors as well.
October 14, 2007 at 1:39 pm
#65: Sax is an interesting comp. Antonelli reminds me of another second baseman from that era, Bill Doran.
#67: Bill Mueller with perhaps a touch more power.
October 14, 2007 at 3:11 pm
66: Since when do we trust a manager’s public assessment of one of his own players? Especially a player who was ripped for his defense the prior year(s)?
October 14, 2007 at 3:28 pm
67: I think we’ll know more after 2008. Look at these numbers:
2005: .268/.375/.441 in 220 AB @ Eugene
2006: .292/.390/.435 in 483 AB @ Lake Elsinore
2007: .330/.437/.580 in 433 AB @ San Antonio
(He’s had a few AB at other levels; 15 in Fort Wayne at the end of ‘05 and 18 in San Diego but the above numbers are the most telling.)
Will Headley’s slugging rate revert back to his ‘05-6 rates? Will Headley continue to make gains on his batting average and on-base rates (he had a .401 BABIP in 2007)?
Does anyone have Headley’s 05 & 06 BABIP numbers?
I have a hard time thinking Headley’s gains are all legitimate and will be maintained (I’m not trying to be pessimistic, just realistic - I hope Headley proves me wrong)… A .401 BABIP is sick. Can that be legimate?
October 14, 2007 at 3:37 pm
66: completely valid argument… And Crisp may not have been great in previous seasons, but this year he’s been Gold Glove caliber…
October 14, 2007 at 10:51 pm
#71: Headley’s BABIP from ‘05 & ‘06:
‘05 (A-): .319
‘06 (A+): .343
October 14, 2007 at 11:35 pm
Geoff, as for the book:
You could do the Bud Black evaluation just like Bill James did in his book. I don’t he would mind.
Are you going to have plenty of analysis, etc. of Tony Gwynn’s career in the Cooperstown section? Sounds like plenty of fodder there.
You could still do plenty of stuff on 1969. It’s just that you don’t have to do the work. But it might be nice for some to see it all compiled in one place. Finals stats for that year, etc.
October 14, 2007 at 11:50 pm
Should I feel guilty about this?
http://firejaymariotti.blogspo.....slide.html
These guys are so easy to poke with a stick. It’s like teasing Raider fans about the Super Bowl against the Bucs.