First Projections for 2008
Tue, Oct 16, 2007
by Geoff Young
Dan has posted 2008 ZiPS projections for the Padres (hat tip to Ben B. in the comments). Some key names:
| Player | BA | OBP | SLG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Bard | .281 | .366 | .401 |
| Adrian Gonzalez | .284 | .351 | .511 |
| Matt Antonelli | .254 | .337 | .376 |
| Kevin Kouzmanoff | .289 | .345 | .492 |
| Khalil Greene | .249 | .300 | .442 |
| Scott Hairston | .243 | .317 | .405 |
| Brian Giles | .268 | .375 | .398 |
The projection for Hairston is low — possibly by a lot, but the rest of these look reasonable to me. Center fielder remains a problem that I’m still studying.
| Player | ERA |
|---|---|
| Jake Peavy | 2.99 |
| Chris Young | 3.32 |
| Greg Maddux | 3.91 |
| Trevor Hoffman | 2.53 |
| Heath Bell | 2.89 |
| Cla Meredith | 3.26 |
If Young is healthy, he’ll beat this. Hoffman? Well, his ERA stood at 2.53 after 162 games this year.
Winter Leagues
- Saguaros 3, Phoenix 2 (box score). Antonelli went 2-for-3 batting seventh; he’s been way down in the order so far. Will Venable, batting fifth and DHing again, doubled and drove in a run. Nick Hundley, batting ninth, went 0-for-2 with a walk; he also caught the speedy Nyger Morgan trying to steal. Jonathan Ellis worked a scoreless sixth (still had trouble finding the plate — only 9 of 18 pitches were strikes). Neil Jamison closed for his second save. The lone blemish was a one-out single to Andrew McCutchen, whom Jamison promptly picked off first.
Finally, I’ve gotten a request from the folks at Holliday Never Touched the Plate. They are looking for “a copy of the play and replays from the original telecast”; if anyone here in San Diego can lend them a DVD, let me know and I’ll get y’all in touch with one another. (Also, remember that we’ve got gear for your Holliday needs.)
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
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October 16, 2007 at 8:14 am
They have Headley at .264/.353/.410, that’s as good a guess as any I suppose. Too bad he can’t play center….
I think Kouz will actually hit for a little more power but that projection looks pretty good, basically another Adrian Gonzalez type bat.
Overall it’s a pretty favorable set of projections. If everyone comes close to those numbers and we can plug our holes I think we’ll be right there at the end of the season again.
October 16, 2007 at 8:58 am
I think those projections are reasonable. The CF hole will probably make/break us in terms of putting us over the top. I also think the projections for Antonelli are a little low, but I guess that guess is as good as anybodys.
Geoff, did you already compare the ZIPS projections from last year to actual performance this year?
October 16, 2007 at 9:09 am
#2: I reviewed projections, but it wasn’t limited to ZiPS:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....sited.html
OT, the ‘73 Padres used a total of 12 pitchers:
http://www.baseball-reference......1973.shtml
Sure, they lost 102 games, but that’s impressive.
October 16, 2007 at 9:38 am
It’s only impressive if you didn’t sit through a number of those games like I did. Still, it was my dad and me in a big, empty stadium in the sun watching baseball, so it was cool. I specifically recall sitting through an Expos-Padres doubleheader about ‘73-ish. Pure joy.
October 16, 2007 at 9:47 am
Ha! It was 1973! August 12. Thank you, Retrosheet. The Padres lost the opener 2-0 but scored one in the ninth and one in the tenth off Mike Marshall (who saved the first game) to send us home happy, 4-3. Dave Winfield pinch hit in what had to be one of his earliest appearances in brown and gold.
In front of 5,613 belligerent Padre fans. It’s funny what your memories from childhood include, eh?
October 16, 2007 at 10:43 am
Buster Olney said today in a chat in response to “Where is Andruw Jones buying his next house?”: San Diego.
Say what you want about Olney, but he doesn’t seem like the type to just stir the pot, or if he does, like Reyes for Johan proposal, he prefaces that it’s just his idea.
October 16, 2007 at 11:40 am
Re. 1: Anthony said, “I think Kouz will actually hit for a little more power but that projection looks pretty good…”
I couldn’t agree more…
Consider:
doubles/home runs
April: 2/1
May: 7/3
June: 3/3
July: 2/4
Aug: 7/3
Sept: 9/4
If we throw away April he averaged 5.6 doubles/month and 3.4 home runs/month. Then we multiply by 6 for each, we get 33.6 doubles and 20.4 home runs… For those of you think it’s unethical (mathmatically) to throw away his worst month, it’s such an outlier that it actually does make sense, keep in mind, June & July were not hot months and they were both factored in…
I expect to see close to a .300 average with 35ish doubles and 20+ HR…
October 16, 2007 at 12:03 pm
3 … re: 73 Padres … thanks for the link & reminder … 34 complete games? 10 Shutouts?
So, was the 34 CGs just “bad management”? (ie. didn’t know they were creating ‘damaged goods’)
Was the 10 SHOs just facing bad hitting teams?
A different era, indeed …
October 16, 2007 at 2:06 pm
#7 You net out the same slug % as zips with 550 AB,35 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR & .300BA.
October 16, 2007 at 4:23 pm
Something is really bothering me- Did it not hurt to have the balance of the season ride on a replacement center fielder that was cut the day the season ended (Brady Clark) ? If the Pads win that game in Colorado, we now know that probably meant the pennant. Why was Brady Clark patroling the cavernous Coors center field. You tell me that they couldn’t have picked up Reggie Abercrombie, Todd Linden, or Jason Ellison off the waiver wire when Cameron went down ? Seeing Brady Clark patrol center field in one of the biggest games in franchise history ? It was downright embarrassing.
October 16, 2007 at 6:19 pm
Re: 10
Maybe so, but not as embarrassing as the batting practice Hoffman served up when the Padres had a two run lead.
To steal a phrase from Jim Rome, it is absolutely myopic to think that a play here and a play there would of made a difference in the Padres season when Trevor Hoffman is solely to blame for the Padres missing the playoffs. Not once, but twice.
Brady Clark did not prevent them from handing a lead over to the bullpen. The front office apparently needed a scapegoat to take the pressure off of their golden-boy icon Hoffman. After all, Clark did all he possibly could. He hit over .300 for Chrissakes!
In psychology, the stage of grief when one says, “well, if this would of happened, and this would of happened, then we would of never had a play-in game” is called bargaining. And harping on Holliday never touching home plate rather than Hoffman tossing up absolute ****, I’m afraid, is heavy duty bargaining. It’s time to address that the uneasy feeling you get when Hoffman enters a game is here to stay.
October 16, 2007 at 7:01 pm
11: Of course, had Clark not given the Rockies a handful of runs earlier in the game, it might not have made it to extras in the first place. Clark’s .812 OPS as a Padre didn’t hurt the club, though.
October 16, 2007 at 7:18 pm
Anyone think we have a chance of signing Carlos Silva this off-season (at least one of Geoff’s links from the other day listed him as a FA)? I was looking at his numbers and think he’d be a pretty nice addition to our rotation and I think he may be undervalued.
October 16, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Segueing to potential 2008 CF…
I was checking out Seattle’s ZIPS
http://www.baseballthinkfactor....._mariners/
Adam Jones (wishful thinking)
.276/.335/.477 in 482 AB, 23 2B, 4 3B, 22 HR, 35/116 BB/SO
Wladimir Baletien (not sure: 1. he’s ready, 2. he can handle CF)
.247/.319/.430 in 453 AB, 19 2B, 2 3B, 20 HR, 48/116 BB/SO
I don’t really think the Padres should go after Balentien, but he is listed as a CF and he has produced in AAA (.291/.362/.509 in 477 AB)…
In my opinion, CF is the biggest question mark facing the 2008 Padres.
October 16, 2007 at 7:51 pm
14:
I would suggest CF is not a questin mark, it is a gaping black hole. They cannot piece together CF coverage they way they did left field this year. That being said, I prefer the black hole, to signing Cameron to a three year deal.
October 16, 2007 at 8:03 pm
i like Balentien, i think at the least he could give Camerons offensive production,,,,,but the defense Ive heard nothing about , which is usually a forboding sign
October 16, 2007 at 8:42 pm
He’s not my first choice, but of the those who are likely available (FA’s and trade candidates) I like Eric Patterson. He’s hugely athletic and has been projected to make the move from 2B to CF since he’s been drafted - he played this season as a CF.
Patterson hit .297/.367/.455 in 516 AB (AAA)
Admission: I have not looked at NL West rosters; I doubt we want to give them usable pieces, nor do I think they’ll be willing to help us.
October 16, 2007 at 9:10 pm
If Crisp stays in Boston, is Ellsbury the odd man out? Combine that with Lowell possibley exiting via free agench, and there may be potential for a deal.
October 16, 2007 at 9:13 pm
Ellsbury WILL NOT be the odd man out… Crisp is likely going to be wearing a different uni next year.
October 16, 2007 at 9:14 pm
18 & 19: Crisp is another guy I wouldn’t mind the Padres going after, but I think there are better options (or options that are every bit as good but less expensive)…
October 16, 2007 at 9:33 pm
20: Depending upon the asking price, I think Crisp is a very attractive option.
October 16, 2007 at 10:05 pm
“Depending on the asking price” is why I think there are proably better options…
October 16, 2007 at 10:30 pm
headleys name gets thrown around a lot in trade rumors, but i think a david freese swap is much more likely, and yes i know im stating the obvious. But maybe a freese + a drew miller type guy+ someone in the vein of kyle burke- for coco could get it done
October 16, 2007 at 10:36 pm
Crisp is a pretty terrible hitter and up until this year was mentioned as a defensive liability in center. I could see him as a last resort, but going from Cameron to Crisp downgrades this team by a couple of wins.
October 16, 2007 at 11:10 pm
#5: Retrosheet rocks.
#8: Different era, indeed. Our best relievers in the ’70s (before Rollie Fingers) were guys like Gary Ross, Mike Corkins, Mike Caldwell, and Dave Tomlin. Yikes.
#10: Clark was overmatched in center, no doubt. That said, it’s hard to retool an entire outfield with a week left in the season.
#11: I don’t think anyone scapegoated Clark. He clearly was a stopgap solution. As for the uneasy feeling when Trevor comes in, that’s been here for a while. We’re used to it by now.
#24: Is Crisp that bad defensively? I haven’t seen him play, but his numbers are decent. We’ve been spoiled with Cameron, but I would be okay with a Jay Payton (2004) type guy next year. Tough though it may be to swallow, Crisp is actually one of the most appealing options out there right now.
October 17, 2007 at 1:40 am
25: Sorry, I wasn’t suggesting Crisp is bad defensively; he was probably deserving of a gold glove this year. I was just saying it’s not a slam dunk that he’s a great centerfielder that will make up for his lack of offense with incredible defense. If he gives back a lot of the defensive improvements he made this year, then he’s kind of a black hole.
Mainly I am trying to beat the “bring back Mike Cameron” drum incessantly.
October 17, 2007 at 6:54 am
#26: Gotcha. The reason I ask is that, in studying the situation, I’m coming to believe that center field in the NL West and in particular at Petco Park is a defense-first position. I’d be willing to sacrifice some offense (specifically power) for a terrific defender.
October 17, 2007 at 7:16 am
I agree we need defense more than anything in CF. Of course, it’s nice to have some kind of offensive contribution there as well.
I’ve heard that Boston plans to keep Crisp and Ellsbury as insurance against a JD Drew injury. They can certainly afford to keep both and they’ve shown they’re willing to keep a guy even though it would be in their best interest to trade him (Wily Mo Pena).
For what it would cost to resign Cameron I’d rather spend a little extra and get Hunter or Jones.
13: I like Silva as well. He doesn’t strike anyone out but he doesn’t walk anyone either and when he’s been able to keep his HR rate down he’s been effective. He may not be exciting but he looks to be fairly consistent, which is what we need behind our big three.
October 17, 2007 at 7:30 am
#13: Silva’s not a bad back-end option. If nothing else, the guy eats innings. Assuming he can avoid a repeat of ‘06, which is always the danger with an extreme contact pitcher, he could be useful.
#28: John Beamer recently projected that Andruw will go for 6/$85-90M, while Hunter will command around 4/$55M. Is anyone here comfortable with either of those numbers? Hunter is moving toward his decline phase, and his offense will probably take a hit at Petco, but if his defense is that good…
October 17, 2007 at 8:00 am
Re: 29 4/55 is not that bad for hunter, its kind of like the 3/30 the Pads gave Giles. The money is interesting because we really have no idea what the padres projected payroll will be in 2-3 years.
October 17, 2007 at 8:40 am
Re 11: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
Re CF: It’s a tough call due to Petco’s defensive demands. There absolutely must be a plus defender out there, and since there aren’t that many available, you have to sacrifice some offense in most cases.
Personally, I would much rather have Cameron back than Hunter. Hunter is an aging player as a defender and his rep is way overblown by “Web Gems.” Offensively he’s not any better than Cameron, unless you’re going to let his “contract year” numbers fool you. Granted he’s younger, but he’s going to be more expensive, and I’ll guarantee (since it’s the internet and won’t cost me anything
) someone will overpay for him.
Jones for a year would be awesome, but I don’t see him as the sort of player who will be hurt by a sub-par season in his walk year. Going into his age 31 season and with his track record, he’s going to get paid and he’s going to get a multi-year contract.
Crisp is intriguing. For what it’s worth, UZR from 2003 through part of 2007 has him as a great defender in LF, but essentially average in CF. Chances are he’d struggle a bit in Petco’s CF, but he might have a good year. A bit of a crapshoot defensively, most likely, with no offensive upside. Depends on the economics if he’s a better bet than Cameron.
What’s Crisp’s contract status? I’m having problems with COTS.
October 17, 2007 at 12:17 pm
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