Comments on: First Projections for 2008 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html Blogging the San Diego Padres baseball club. Established 1997. Tue, 14 Oct 2008 19:05:35 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.2 By: Introducing Pitch Count » Crooked Pitch http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94248 Introducing Pitch Count » Crooked Pitch Wed, 17 Oct 2007 19:17:03 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94248 [...] San Diego Padres blog, Ducksnorts, has already posted some 2008 MLB projections. [...]<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94248">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> [...] San Diego Padres blog, Ducksnorts, has already posted some 2008 MLB projections. [...]

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]]> By: Pat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94200 Pat Wed, 17 Oct 2007 15:40:27 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94200 Re 11: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Re CF: It's a tough call due to Petco's defensive demands. There absolutely must be a plus defender out there, and since there aren't that many available, you have to sacrifice some offense in most cases. Personally, I would much rather have Cameron back than Hunter. Hunter is an aging player as a defender and his rep is way overblown by "Web Gems." Offensively he's not any better than Cameron, unless you're going to let his "contract year" numbers fool you. Granted he's younger, but he's going to be more expensive, and I'll guarantee (since it's the internet and won't cost me anything :-) ) someone will overpay for him. Jones for a year would be awesome, but I don't see him as the sort of player who will be hurt by a sub-par season in his walk year. Going into his age 31 season and with his track record, he's going to get paid and he's going to get a multi-year contract. Crisp is intriguing. For what it's worth, UZR from 2003 through part of 2007 has him as a great defender in LF, but essentially average in CF. Chances are he'd struggle a bit in Petco's CF, but he might have a good year. A bit of a crapshoot defensively, most likely, with no offensive upside. Depends on the economics if he's a better bet than Cameron. What's Crisp's contract status? I'm having problems with COTS.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94200">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Re 11: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Re CF: It’s a tough call due to Petco’s defensive demands. There absolutely must be a plus defender out there, and since there aren’t that many available, you have to sacrifice some offense in most cases.

Personally, I would much rather have Cameron back than Hunter. Hunter is an aging player as a defender and his rep is way overblown by “Web Gems.” Offensively he’s not any better than Cameron, unless you’re going to let his “contract year” numbers fool you. Granted he’s younger, but he’s going to be more expensive, and I’ll guarantee (since it’s the internet and won’t cost me anything :-) ) someone will overpay for him.

Jones for a year would be awesome, but I don’t see him as the sort of player who will be hurt by a sub-par season in his walk year. Going into his age 31 season and with his track record, he’s going to get paid and he’s going to get a multi-year contract.

Crisp is intriguing. For what it’s worth, UZR from 2003 through part of 2007 has him as a great defender in LF, but essentially average in CF. Chances are he’d struggle a bit in Petco’s CF, but he might have a good year. A bit of a crapshoot defensively, most likely, with no offensive upside. Depends on the economics if he’s a better bet than Cameron.

What’s Crisp’s contract status? I’m having problems with COTS.

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]]> By: Steve C http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94187 Steve C Wed, 17 Oct 2007 15:00:00 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94187 Re: 29 4/55 is not that bad for hunter, its kind of like the 3/30 the Pads gave Giles. The money is interesting because we really have no idea what the padres projected payroll will be in 2-3 years.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94187">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Re: 29 4/55 is not that bad for hunter, its kind of like the 3/30 the Pads gave Giles. The money is interesting because we really have no idea what the padres projected payroll will be in 2-3 years.

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94183 Geoff Young Wed, 17 Oct 2007 14:30:37 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94183 #13: Silva's not a bad back-end option. If nothing else, the guy eats innings. Assuming he can avoid a repeat of '06, which is always the danger with an extreme contact pitcher, he could be useful. #28: John Beamer <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/eight-free-agents-for-2008/" rel="nofollow">recently projected</a> that Andruw will go for 6/$85-90M, while Hunter will command around 4/$55M. Is anyone here comfortable with either of those numbers? Hunter is moving toward his decline phase, and his offense will probably take a hit at Petco, but if his defense is that good...<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94183">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #13: Silva’s not a bad back-end option. If nothing else, the guy eats innings. Assuming he can avoid a repeat of ‘06, which is always the danger with an extreme contact pitcher, he could be useful.

#28: John Beamer recently projected that Andruw will go for 6/$85-90M, while Hunter will command around 4/$55M. Is anyone here comfortable with either of those numbers? Hunter is moving toward his decline phase, and his offense will probably take a hit at Petco, but if his defense is that good…

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]]> By: Anthony http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94178 Anthony Wed, 17 Oct 2007 14:16:26 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94178 I agree we need defense more than anything in CF. Of course, it's nice to have some kind of offensive contribution there as well. I've heard that Boston plans to keep Crisp and Ellsbury as insurance against a JD Drew injury. They can certainly afford to keep both and they've shown they're willing to keep a guy even though it would be in their best interest to trade him (Wily Mo Pena). For what it would cost to resign Cameron I'd rather spend a little extra and get Hunter or Jones. 13: I like Silva as well. He doesn't strike anyone out but he doesn't walk anyone either and when he's been able to keep his HR rate down he's been effective. He may not be exciting but he looks to be fairly consistent, which is what we need behind our big three.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94178">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I agree we need defense more than anything in CF. Of course, it’s nice to have some kind of offensive contribution there as well.

I’ve heard that Boston plans to keep Crisp and Ellsbury as insurance against a JD Drew injury. They can certainly afford to keep both and they’ve shown they’re willing to keep a guy even though it would be in their best interest to trade him (Wily Mo Pena).

For what it would cost to resign Cameron I’d rather spend a little extra and get Hunter or Jones.

13: I like Silva as well. He doesn’t strike anyone out but he doesn’t walk anyone either and when he’s been able to keep his HR rate down he’s been effective. He may not be exciting but he looks to be fairly consistent, which is what we need behind our big three.

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94167 Geoff Young Wed, 17 Oct 2007 13:54:04 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94167 #26: Gotcha. The reason I ask is that, in studying the situation, I'm coming to believe that center field in the NL West and in particular at Petco Park is a defense-first position. I'd be willing to sacrifice some offense (specifically power) for a terrific defender.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94167">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #26: Gotcha. The reason I ask is that, in studying the situation, I’m coming to believe that center field in the NL West and in particular at Petco Park is a defense-first position. I’d be willing to sacrifice some offense (specifically power) for a terrific defender.

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]]> By: Ben B. http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94110 Ben B. Wed, 17 Oct 2007 08:40:45 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94110 25: Sorry, I wasn't suggesting Crisp is bad defensively; he was probably deserving of a gold glove this year. I was just saying it's not a slam dunk that he's a great centerfielder that will make up for his lack of offense with incredible defense. If he gives back a lot of the defensive improvements he made this year, then he's kind of a black hole. Mainly I am trying to beat the "bring back Mike Cameron" drum incessantly.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94110">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 25: Sorry, I wasn’t suggesting Crisp is bad defensively; he was probably deserving of a gold glove this year. I was just saying it’s not a slam dunk that he’s a great centerfielder that will make up for his lack of offense with incredible defense. If he gives back a lot of the defensive improvements he made this year, then he’s kind of a black hole.

Mainly I am trying to beat the “bring back Mike Cameron” drum incessantly.

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94075 Geoff Young Wed, 17 Oct 2007 06:10:30 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94075 #5: Retrosheet rocks. #8: Different era, indeed. Our best relievers in the '70s (before Rollie Fingers) were guys like Gary Ross, Mike Corkins, Mike Caldwell, and Dave Tomlin. Yikes. #10: Clark was overmatched in center, no doubt. That said, it's hard to retool an entire outfield with a week left in the season. #11: I don't think anyone scapegoated Clark. He clearly was a stopgap solution. As for the uneasy feeling when Trevor comes in, that's been here for a while. We're used to it by now. #24: Is Crisp that bad defensively? I haven't seen him play, but his numbers are decent. We've been spoiled with Cameron, but I would be okay with a Jay Payton (2004) type guy next year. Tough though it may be to swallow, Crisp is actually one of the most appealing options out there right now.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94075">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #5: Retrosheet rocks.

#8: Different era, indeed. Our best relievers in the ’70s (before Rollie Fingers) were guys like Gary Ross, Mike Corkins, Mike Caldwell, and Dave Tomlin. Yikes.

#10: Clark was overmatched in center, no doubt. That said, it’s hard to retool an entire outfield with a week left in the season.

#11: I don’t think anyone scapegoated Clark. He clearly was a stopgap solution. As for the uneasy feeling when Trevor comes in, that’s been here for a while. We’re used to it by now.

#24: Is Crisp that bad defensively? I haven’t seen him play, but his numbers are decent. We’ve been spoiled with Cameron, but I would be okay with a Jay Payton (2004) type guy next year. Tough though it may be to swallow, Crisp is actually one of the most appealing options out there right now.

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]]> By: Ben B. http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94069 Ben B. Wed, 17 Oct 2007 05:36:20 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94069 Crisp is a pretty terrible hitter and up until this year was mentioned as a defensive liability in center. I could see him as a last resort, but going from Cameron to Crisp downgrades this team by a couple of wins.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94069">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Crisp is a pretty terrible hitter and up until this year was mentioned as a defensive liability in center. I could see him as a last resort, but going from Cameron to Crisp downgrades this team by a couple of wins.

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]]> By: dylanc15 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94064 dylanc15 Wed, 17 Oct 2007 05:30:14 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/10/first-projections-for-2008.html#comment-94064 headleys name gets thrown around a lot in trade rumors, but i think a david freese swap is much more likely, and yes i know im stating the obvious. But maybe a freese + a drew miller type guy+ someone in the vein of kyle burke- for coco could get it done<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-94064">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> headleys name gets thrown around a lot in trade rumors, but i think a david freese swap is much more likely, and yes i know im stating the obvious. But maybe a freese + a drew miller type guy+ someone in the vein of kyle burke- for coco could get it done

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