Sorry, I Was Watching Tennis

Ugly game on Tuesday (box score). I bailed pretty early in this one, when it was clear that Chris Young still didn’t have his mojo working. The Padres are so beyond hosed if he doesn’t find his form, like, yesterday.

I ended up watching David Ferrer beat Rafael Nadal at the U.S. Open instead. Nothing against the Padres, but I wanted to see some competition, and tennis was a better bet. As it happened, Ferrer and Nadal both played an incredible match.

Tennis is so much easier for me to watch than baseball. I have no allegiances; I only want to see the game played well.

Padres Prospect Report

by Peter Friberg

AA

Playoffs begin Wednesday…

High-A

Playoffs begin Wednesday…

Short Season-A

Salem-Keizer 12, Eugene 5

Kellen Kulbacki: 2 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B
Yefri Carvajal: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 SO

Jake Peavy goes on short rest Wednesday night in the finale at Arizona. We’ll have the IGD up and running in the general vicinity of 5:30 p.m. PT. Go Padres!

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81 Responses »

  1. #45: The main point in Kouz’s favor for this year is that the miserable start has been dragging the overall numbers ever since.

    The downside is that the best comps at this stage in his career are guys like Leo Gomez, Joe Crede, Jeff King, Roy Howell, Ty Wigginton, Wes Chamberlain, Wil Cordero, and Joe Carter. Those are some decent ballplayers, but nobody particularly special (unless you dig RBI).

  2. 47: April was his worst month, but June was bad too.

    He has the lowest OPS among NL rookies with at least 300 at-bats, but that’s not park-adjusted. By VORP, which is adjusted, he’s 33rd in the majors. Most of the players below him have far fewer at-bats. All this sounds like I’m more down on him than I am, but those are the facts.

    48 (catcher): Neither Morton nor Carlin will see any defensive duty unless something bad happens or we clinch, so they went with the hitter.

    48 (kk): They might do that, but the Padres can look at Kouz’s defense too. That’s the differentiator. I don’t expect Headley to substantially outhit Kouz his first season. It may also depend on how they fill other holes. If they find a CF and sign Bradley, they might be more tempted to season Headley and give Kouz another shot.

  3. Actually, a great comp for Kouz at the same age is Khalil’s ’05 season:

    Khalil ’05: .250/.296/.431, 25 BB, 93 SO, 97 OPS+
    Kouz ’07: .248/.301/.427, 24 BB, 84 SO, 93 OPS+

    When you account for the fact that Khalil is an above-average defender at short and Kouz is below average at third, the problem becomes clear.

    I like Kouz, and he’s the best third baseman we’ve had since Burroughs in ’03-’04 (which is an indictment of our inability to field a legit big leaguer at the position), but he can be replaced.

  4. 27 … Dirk deserves it, thanks for the link, TW!

  5. I think one KG is enough for any offense…that OBP is brutal on its good days.

  6. The vote is in, a while back I posted a link about Triple A Portland thinking about changing their name and ultimatly screwing with history.

    Well the vote is in!

    http://tinyurl.com/2was33

  7. Here’s a comparison, Rob Neyer style, just for fun:

    Kevin Kouzmanoff’s rookie season: 391 AB, .248/.301/.427, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 19 Errors
    Mystery player’s rookie season: 367 AB, .196/.324/.373, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 17 Errors

  8. But Lynch made me think abt the obvious reason the Pads brought up Morton , It would be nice to be able pinch hit Barrett against a lefty late (or Morton early ) in the game and not have to worry about burning a catcher. Carlin may be better, but heck Morton could get ahold of a fastball and maybe drive one out.

  9. Give me a hard one.

    Mike Schmidt, but he was three years younger.

  10. Morton went to N.C. State, so he will be a great, great player.

  11. [i]Give me a hard one.[/i]

    I know, I know.

  12. 59: How the hell did you figure that out so quickly?? Just wondering…

  13. Phillies blew a huge lead late and lost an absolute heartbreaker today in Atlanta. No one vying for the Wild Card seems to be able lately to play consistent ball – this leads me to believe that the NL West will get 2 of the 3 playoff spots.

    Meanwhile, the Mets #2 or #3 starter John Maine got racked today in Cincy, losing 7-0. Would a Hernandez-Martinez-Maine/O.perez rotation strike fear in your Padre heart in a short series ? Pads have to be the favorites to win a NL Pennant.

  14. Obviously April is a part of the season as well. But the purpose of player evaluation is primarily predictive. The Padres need to know what Kouz is going to do next year, not punish him for what he did in April. I know that some on the board have tired of the “since May 1″ numbers, but those numbers seem to be a better basis for projection than the entire season line because they demonstrate improvement. Are we assuming that Headley is going to do better than Kouz’s post-April line of .278/.340/.481? I don’t think that he will. I think that Headley or Kouz may start in LF if Bradley leaves or moves to CF, but we’re not going to give up on Kouz (and, in my opinion, we shouldn’t) after those pretty good (but not great) post-April numbers.

  15. 63 … I’ve heard several radio-based pundits draw this same conclusion recently …

    60 … uh, so did Vern Sterry … and here’s the rest of the list …

    http://www.thebaseballcube.com/teams/alumni/20235.shtml

    … I work with a WolfPacker, so I’ve had this conversation before :-)

    56 … thanks for the GREAT news about the “Beavers”!

    re: KK … I still like his trend, and therefore potential/upside … just based on what limited info I have, it sure seems like KK has more “power potential” than Headley and I’m in favor of any decision process which enables that potential to be explored to its fullest (ie. I’m fine with him being on OF’er, ’cause it does seem like his defense at 3B is currently pretty expensive) …

  16. There are only 8 3B with a OPS over .820 this year in all of baseball. If we throw out Kouz’s April numbers (and I read post-63 for an explanation of why I believe that we can when evaluating him for next year), that puts him in pretty good company. He’s earned the right to have the job next year at the start of the season.

    If he hits .108 in April again…I’d bet that we’d see Headley pretty fast.

  17. 64 … hmmm, PaulR tries to up-the-ante from “good” to “pretty good” for his post-April ABs … I’d prefer to stick with “good” …

  18. 67: I thought I was qualifying my statement enough by saying “not great” :)

  19. 68 … no, no … it’s clear to me that “good” is less than “pretty good” which is less than “great” … i’m not sure if there’s anything more in between “pretty good” and “great” … seems like there might still be a gap there … and is “mediocre” between “decent” and “good”?

  20. 63

    El Duque would worry me. Dude can look like crap in the regular season, but in the postseason, it’s a different story. Needless to say, we have the guys that could match up against him.

    You’d have to take one of those guys out (probably Ollie) because Glavine would start game 2 or 3.

  21. 69: I believe that mediocre has a more negative connotation than “decent.” While I do believe that Kouz’s numbers have been “good” I was actually using pretty as a qualifier rather than as an endorsement of said numbers. I think “pretty good” can rank either ahead of or behind “good” depending on the tone of voice that’s used.

  22. 63 – We’re potentially going into this post season in the same situation we did last year: one ace on his stuff, one ace a little bit shaky and a 40+ year-old for our third starter.

    I don’t think our pitching staff makes our chances any better or worse then last year – I fully expected to make it past St. Louis. Experience teaches me to be more respectful of any opponent this year.

  23. 64: I’m not a mathematician, but how could Kouz have a post-April OBP of 340 when his OBPs for those months are 375, 295, 314, 333, and 308? That seems to be someplace in the 320s, which is still better than April.

    It’s not punishment. As bad as Kouz has been defensively, Headley wouldn’t have to match his numbers – although an 800+ OPS is well within reason.

    Kouz’s bat could play in left. The question is, can his body? He does give them options, as LM wrote.

  24. 71 … that’s a pretty good point, Paul … now, how do I get a “tone” into one of these comments??? Ah, with a smile :-)

  25. 73: I’m not sure. It’s totally possible that there’s a problem with my math, but I have him having 320 post-April AB’s and getting 89 hits and 20 BB’s during that time…that’s 109/320 which is .340. Maybe he had more AB’s in months in which he did well which skews the #’s?

    I’m an English teacher…so please, check my math.

  26. 75: you have to add the BB to both the hit and AB totals for computer OBP. Therefore it would be 109/340 which is a 320 OBP.

  27. 73 … KK was at his low (.108 .172 .193) after the game on May 7th … since then he’s .286 .336 .490 in 308 ABs … according to this …

    http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/PlayerInfo.py?StartDate=5%2F8%2F2007&EndDate=09%2F04%2F2007&GameType=all&PlayedFor=0&PlayedVs=0&Park=0&PlayerID=5995

    … and 0 CSs also!

  28. 77: That’s close enough for this English teacher to count it as a win. Now only if I could get my students to get that close to academic English…
    :)

  29. Let’s see what I can do with data from Yahoo …

    http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7864/splits;_ylt=AlEg1eyfzLqiqkjsWSJVFq6FCLcF

    Month	G	AB	AVG	OBP	SLG
    April	21	71	0.113	0.171	0.183
    May	23	66	0.303	0.375	0.576
    June	20	73	0.247	0.295	0.411
    July	25	80	0.275	0.314	0.475
    Aug	28	89	0.292	0.333	0.472
    Sept	3	12	0.250	0.308	0.500
    
  30. 77, 78: Ah, you’re taking out his bad week in May. But you’re both more right than me anyway. It’s still heavily skewed by May, just in the opposite direction. Post AS he’s at 808 OPS (318/491), but that K/BB ratio is scary. That’s something that could improve with experience.

  31. #70 of course, Tom Glavine.