Sorry, I Was Watching Tennis
Wed, Sep 5, 2007
by Geoff Young
Ugly game on Tuesday (box score). I bailed pretty early in this one, when it was clear that Chris Young still didn’t have his mojo working. The Padres are so beyond hosed if he doesn’t find his form, like, yesterday.
I ended up watching David Ferrer beat Rafael Nadal at the U.S. Open instead. Nothing against the Padres, but I wanted to see some competition, and tennis was a better bet. As it happened, Ferrer and Nadal both played an incredible match.
Tennis is so much easier for me to watch than baseball. I have no allegiances; I only want to see the game played well.
by Peter Friberg
AA
Playoffs begin Wednesday…
High-A
Playoffs begin Wednesday…
Short Season-A
Kellen Kulbacki: 2 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B
Yefri Carvajal: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 SO
Jake Peavy goes on short rest Wednesday night in the finale at Arizona. We’ll have the IGD up and running in the general vicinity of 5:30 p.m. PT. Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 5, 2007 at 7:11 am
That was a tough game. Hensley was terrible, 4 walks, 2 runs, 1 balked in run. To me, it looked like his machanics are inconsistant. Seemed to fall off to the right, then to the left, and all over. Its in his head now, whatever problem hes having. Still don’t understand Camy at the plate. He is inconsistant then great, then stikes out looking. What kind of hitter is he? Don’t want to pay big money for a inconsistant hitter.
Get em tonight, Peavy.
September 5, 2007 at 7:14 am
Looks like Towers asked for TG JR when he traded Liney. It would be cool to get him here, but that sure is a big name to live up to.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
September 5, 2007 at 7:23 am
I wonder if KT asked for TGjr and Inman. I would imagine that the Brewers would have done Linebnrink for TGjr straight up.
September 5, 2007 at 8:20 am
TGjr would be an intriguing pickup. He could play CF and hit leadoff next season. I have a feeling that KT will try to go after him again in the offseason with the idea of using him in that role and replacing Cammy. If he does that, I’d hope that he looks to get some healthy legit power in LF to make up for the loss of Cammy’s power. TGjr’s got zero power at the moment and seems more of a leadoff type.
September 5, 2007 at 8:44 am
I hope we weren’t looking at T Junior as a starter. No disrespect to the son of the greatest Padre, but he looks like Dave Roberts with less speed. He could be Bradley’s backup if we resign Jenga to play CF.
September 5, 2007 at 8:46 am
4: TGjr’s game plays well at Petco. He seems to be molded in the form of his dad, but with a little more speed. I don’t know how many times I’ve heard Tony say that he would kill at Petco. I’d like to see us give TGjr a shot.
So, was Milty’s ejection yesterday really unwarranted? I know that when I tend to read that, I kind of question it, but I’d be interested to know what your take on it was.
Man, we really really need CY. The most frustrating thing for me about yesterday’s game is that he would be doing well and then just fall apart in magnificent fashion.
Hopefully the bats get it going tonite and supports Jake. We need to be PATIENT against Livan. No ifs, ands, or buts.
September 5, 2007 at 9:03 am
6 (Gwynn): His game is a 340-350 OBP with no power and not that much speed. He’s stolen 34 in the minors before (twice) but was caught 16 and 15 times. If he had the bat control to hit 300 or walked more than he struck out, like his dad, that’d be different.
He’s a 272 career minor league hitter who in most seasons struck out 2x as often as he walked, with K numbers approaching 100 if extended to a 162 game season.
6 (Bradley): According to Black, Bradley was tossed because the umpire didn’t like how slowly he was moving. That seems bogus. Hopefully there will be no suspension, but we haven’t been lucky in that regard this year.
September 5, 2007 at 9:20 am
#7: Gwynn Jr. is kind of similar to Tom Goodwin.
September 5, 2007 at 9:26 am
8: Dang, people think I’m harsh. But yeah.
We’ve scored more runs this year than we did last year, with less speed. Not many more, but the difference may be more pronounced by the end of the season. We’d scored even more back in 2004 when we had no team speed.
All else being equal, I’d like faster players. But power and obp are way more important no matter where you’re playing.
September 5, 2007 at 9:26 am
I would not mind giving TGjr a shot in CF if Padres were going through a re-building year but I think they are gearing up to make another run next year.
Gwynn maybe a career .272 hitter in the minors but that is mostly due to a bad year in 2004 when he hit .242 in AA, and 2005 when he hit .271 (but had an OBP of .370). He has been better in AAA, hitting .300 last year.
The one thing that will be hard for TGjr is that he is not as good of a hitter as his dad was and he never will be. I think most fans in SD will not accept him as a good player unless he hits well over .300 with no strike outs like his dad.
September 5, 2007 at 9:28 am
Re: 9 at least he did not say Chris Gwynn
September 5, 2007 at 9:32 am
10: Those two down years are more than half of his minor league career. And his good year in AA was his second time through, which is a big red flag. He did skip high a, but coming out of college that’s not such a huge jump.
11: Chris gets +10 for his double against the Dodgers in the last game of 1996. Goodwin has no such modifier.
September 5, 2007 at 9:34 am
10: I disagree. I don’t think people would ever expect TGjr to be as good as his dad. People seem to realize that TG was the best pure hitter in the last 50 years, and that nobody like him will likely come along again.
That said, I do think that a) it would be a nice marketing chip for the Padres and b) the city would really pull for him to succeed.
Tom & GY: I didn’t realize how low his career average was. His progress in AAA in isnpiring, but doesn’t exactly translate to anything MLB-wise.
I wonder if he could learn to steal better if he had the right teachers? Obviously the Padres aren’t built on these principles, but maybe an off-season with Rickey would teach him wonders.
September 5, 2007 at 9:38 am
RE: 12 he was able to hit .300 in AAA his first time around, I think he was just adjusting to pro pitching, he was not longer facing guys in the Mouintain West or lower Minor leauge levels he was facing true prospects.
September 5, 2007 at 9:41 am
13: I’m unsure of the value of teaching, but maybe. On the other hand there’s nothing in his minor league record that tells me he’s got all this untapped speed. Averaging in the low 20 doubles (really low) and 5 triples as a full-time minor leaguer. That seems like he’s kinda fast, but not the sort of fast that makes up for no power and not getting on very much.
He might blossom being home, but he should be Plan C for our starting CF.
September 5, 2007 at 9:42 am
Re: 13 I think the average fan would expect him to be on teh same par as his father all they would see is the return of Gwynn.
As you said:
“a) it would be a nice marketing chip for the Padres”
Exactly the Padres would be putting presure on him day one to be a face of the franchise
b) the city would really pull for him to succeed.
And if he hits .275 his first year will that support stay for his 2nd year?
September 5, 2007 at 9:45 am
14: The Southern League had more prospects in it than the PCL. He might have been adjusting, granted, but the plate discipline got worse and the power stayed MIA.
I don’t see what need he fills, other than playing center, and I don’t have any idea how good he is at that. Our leadoff hitter next year will be Antonelli or OG, most likely.
September 5, 2007 at 9:50 am
16: The pressure would be worrisome. You wonder if he’d even like to play in SD. Maybe, but those are some big shoes to fill.
Going back to 6: Steve bringing up Chris Gwynn reminds me of how flabbergasted Tony was when the Royals didn’t retain him after 1993, when he put up a 300/354/387 line playing half-time in the OF. We can’t expect him to be objective about his family and their abilities.
September 5, 2007 at 9:50 am
#9: Goodwin was picked higher in the draft than anyone named Tony Gwynn ever has been.
I’ll try to tread a little more lightly here, but I really don’t think Tony Jr is the answer in center.
September 5, 2007 at 10:42 am
Nice article on SI.com about the biggest deadline pick-up of the year. Hmm, wonder who that might be… http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
September 5, 2007 at 11:07 am
20 … nice article, Phantom, thanks for the link! Too bad there wasn’t a “Jenga” mention …
September 5, 2007 at 11:31 am
I’m a big Milton Bradley fan but if I was the umpire I would have ejected him after about 5 seconds of his act. That was completely classless. He just stood there and glared at the ump for about 15 seconds before he said anything. You just don’t do something like that, he was trying to show up the umpire.
September 5, 2007 at 12:11 pm
Tony Gwynn Sr. was a much better speed guy than Jr. before he got fat.
September 5, 2007 at 12:16 pm
22 … it will be interesting to see if the Padres can help Bradley to not repeat this again … and I’m talking about the players and the manager and any coaches that might interact with him about this. From quotes I’ve read in the past, I truely think he’s a man aware of his immaturities who is looking to learn & grow. Setbacks like this are going to happen … the key is the response. And at the same time keep his positives (energy, drive, motivation, ambition) which have been getting great results recently!
September 5, 2007 at 12:49 pm
I’m not sure why these posts assume Mike Cameron won’t be the center fielder next year. Maybe he won’t. But maybe he will.
I’m not sure how Tony Sr. and Jr. would compare in the 40, but Sr. was a great baserunner and great at stealing bases during the first half of his career. I don’t think “fast” is the right adjective, because Rickey Henderson wasn’t always the fastest player in the league.
Sr. stole 319 bases and was caught 125 times (.718 percentage). He stole 30 bases four times and stole 56 in 1987, when he had a .824 percentage. Even in the second half of his career, his percentage were good to great.
I don’t think anyone would be saying Jr. could start in center for the Padres, if his name was Frankie Perez.
As for Rickey, he helped make Jose Reyes a great player, but he works for the Mets. I don’t know if he free lances.
– Bradley is fine. Every player has strengths and weaknesses, and life is a 50-way balancing act for everyone.
– And Geoff, I will have a rooting interest tonight: I would like to see Roddick beat Federer.
September 5, 2007 at 1:04 pm
Fairly surprised that (25 yrs. old) Colt Morton will get a call up. He will only get one or two at bats so it will be hard to get a read on his ability at this level. I saw him hit a ball 450 feet or so earlier in the year at Frisco, Tx. and thought to myself, “this guy will get a shot at the mlb level ” but I didn’t think it would be this year.
To me he looks like a Mark Parent clone (he is 6′4 or 6′5) who has a long swing but a ton of raw power -
September 5, 2007 at 1:05 pm
Some Rob Neyer love for Dick Hayhurst:
http://tinyurl.com/3cjlwn
September 5, 2007 at 1:12 pm
25: I don’t think anyone’s assuming that Cameron can’t be the CF. We’re just discussing possible replacements.
September 5, 2007 at 1:32 pm
Not sure that getting Gwynn would mean that either Cameron or Bradley wouldn’t be back. Given Cameron’s injury history and age I would think he’d have at least 1 trip to the 15 day DL and Bradley is going to play about 100 games in a good year.
Combine those two situations and it isn’t hard to see Gwynn playing at least half the time next season and taking over LF in 09.
The XX guys are killing me with the Chargers stadium talk, 9 new hotels in Arizona! I guess they missed the announcement that BallPark Village, you know the development next to Petco, has been changed from a condo development to hotel and office space….yeah 1700 hotel rooms right there.
Isn’t that a better example to use then the mess in Arizona which is pretty far away from where most people actually live?
September 5, 2007 at 1:35 pm
By the way I like KT’s idea about bringing in Josh Towers this off season. He’s been killed by the HR the past 2 years(unluckily so) which Petco will help, but if his K rate is really staying around 6/9IP then he’s going to be no worse then league average going forward.
A front 4 of Peavy, the old CY, Maddux and Towers is certainly better then anything else out there.
Mark
September 5, 2007 at 1:40 pm
29: It might not be hard to see that happening, but for some of us it would be hard to watch. I would really hope to have a serious offensive player in LF in 2009.
September 5, 2007 at 1:54 pm
31: Is Bradley not a serious offensive player in LF for next year?
September 5, 2007 at 1:56 pm
32: And thus I wrote 2009. But Bradley isn’t guaranteed to be back even for 2008. He can sign with anybody who wants him. Even if he is back, it may be in CF.
September 5, 2007 at 1:58 pm
33: My bad. The eyes decieved me i thought you wrote 2008. What about Kouz or Headley in LF in ‘09?
September 5, 2007 at 1:59 pm
To clarify 33, I think we’ll put a hitter in LF next year, we just don’t know his name yet. 2009 was more in response to Mark’s view of Gwynn Jr taking over the position that year. If we haven’t developed one by then (Huffman, Venable, Freese, Kouzmanoff) or acquired one, it’ll be aggravating.
September 5, 2007 at 2:00 pm
34: Most people think Headley will be starting somewhere for the Padres next year.
If they were to sign Cameron and Bradley, Headley would probably start over Kouz at third. That’s all just educated guessing.
September 5, 2007 at 2:06 pm
36: Agree with those guesses. My guess is that Headley starts unless he gets hurt or has a terrible spring. Kouz turns into the main backup at 3rd, LF, and 1b, if we retain Bradley and a more durable CF. He might not have enough trade value to be moved.
September 5, 2007 at 2:06 pm
36: But Headley hasnt proved anything to warrant him to start over Kouz, his numbers in the minors arent really that much better than Kouz. Kouz has had a good rookie year.
September 5, 2007 at 2:14 pm
36: Kouz hadn’t proved anything more than Headley before this season, and he hasn’t proved all that much this year. A season OBP of 300 is not good.
Headley’s the better defender and he isn’t vulnerable to RHP, which is Kouz’s weakness. And I like Kouz as a hitter, but if you can get comparable offense and better defense, you gotta do it.
September 5, 2007 at 2:17 pm
38: I agree with Tom. I’m not sure by what definition Kouzmanoff has had a good rookie year.
September 5, 2007 at 2:21 pm
39: At this point the comparable offense and defense is all assumption though. His stats say he has had a good rookie year. It hasnt been great but its been decent. i would just hate for us to give up on him after 1 year like we did Barfield.
September 5, 2007 at 2:28 pm
41.
What part of we have a top prospect type at a position where the current guy isn’t exactly setting the world on fire don’t you get? I like Kouz I like him a lot and I liked the Barfield trade for him but his defense lately has been bad and since his hitting isn’t enough to overcome it then there is no reason why Headley shouldn’t get a shot come spring training. I am all for trying to teach kouz LF because I want him to stay but he isn’t playing nearly well enough to block Headley if he has a good spring training.
September 5, 2007 at 2:29 pm
Kouzmanoff is hitting .248/.300/.423. Even in Petco Park, most people would desribe that as poor, especially for a corner player.
According to Win Shares, which include fielding and adjust for park effects, Kouzmanoff is the 14th best third baseman in the league this season behind: David Wright, Miguel Cabrera, Aramis Ramirez, Chipper Jones, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman, Garret Atkins, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Bautista, Pedro Feliz, Scott Rolen, Mike Lamb and Mark Reynolds.
September 5, 2007 at 2:30 pm
41: The organization believes in the predictive power of minor league stats or they would never have traded for Kouzmanoff. The defense really isn’t a question. When all the defensive metrics and all the scouts agree, it’s pretty well settled.
Good is not decent. Good is better than decent. Kouz is just recently crawled into positive VORP territory. If you take defense into consideration he might still be replacement level.
Barfield’s been one of the worst players in the AL this year. He’s been even worse than NOG. I hope he bounces back, but why would anyone regret that trade now? Especially if you believe Kouz has been good, Barf has been anything but.
September 5, 2007 at 2:37 pm
43: To add to that, he’s a 4.7 VORP player, which just measures offense. By BP’s WARP, which includes defense, he’s been worth .2 wins over replacement.
I believe it was Richard who said his wOBA was acceptable, but .311 would seem to be below the average of 340. I’m not that familiar with wOBA, but I wanted to mention somebody else who thinks Kouz has been decent with the bat. I’d like to keep him and I wouldn’t mind him being a full-time LF to start the season, but “good” is stretching things for 2007.
September 5, 2007 at 2:41 pm
44: I am not regretting the trade now I am just saying I would rather not see the same thing happen again. There is also no way of knowing how Barfield would had been here in San Diego for his 2nd year. If Headley wins the job in spring then I agree he should get to start, but just because he is one of our better prospects doesnt mean he is automatically starting next year. If he earns it then I have no problem with it, but kouz was a top prospect as well and he has a alot of talent and will continue to improve. Headley had a small amount of ABs with the big club too and he didnt exacly turn heads. This is kind of a wasted debate because we wont have any real clarity on it until Spring Training.
September 5, 2007 at 2:46 pm
45: A lot of Kouz’s terrible play came from the first month of the season. He has only improved since then and if you take April out of the picture then in my opinion he has had a pretty good year for a rookie. I’d like to see his stats compared to all the other rookie starters and see how he has done, other than comparing him the other starting 3rd basemen
September 5, 2007 at 2:50 pm
26 … I think Morton’s just getting a callup so that we have a 3rd string catcher available if we need one … perhaps one could argue that Carlin would better fill that role (better defensively) …
re: KK … I think it’s fair to say that his season has been decent (not good) … but his last 300 ABs have been good … and so his trend is going to make the off-season and spring-training decision of KK vs Headley a tough/interesting one … it’s a good problem for the Padres to have … and there are all sorts of ways it might play out … I won’t be surprised if Headley starts at AAA next year and then based on those results we’ll worry about what to do with KK with another 300 ABs under his belt also (not to mention a good look-see in this post-season, hopefully) …
September 5, 2007 at 2:50 pm
46: Spring training is a bad time to make decisions. We shouldn’t be picking starters based on 100 at-bats against scrub pitchers.
Not only do I think Headley deserves the job, everything about the Padre organization (Alderson version) suggests they’ll do it. They drafted Headley. They asked him to get stronger and he did. They believe you can predict major league success from minor league numbers - not 100% of the time, but with fair reliability.
September 5, 2007 at 2:52 pm
He hasn’t had a good season. He shouldn’t get any votes, even third-place votes, for Rookie of the Year.
Every player is compared to the other players at their position, rookie or not. That’s how you can better tell if a player is above the league average, at the league average, below it or just a replacement level player.
And April counts, too. Yes, he has improved, and I’m sure the front office guys know that. But if you are simply determing whether a player has had a good season, April is part of the season. In fact, it’s just as important as the others.
Kouzmanoff has not had a good season, however you want to frame it.
September 5, 2007 at 2:59 pm
#45: The main point in Kouz’s favor for this year is that the miserable start has been dragging the overall numbers ever since.
The downside is that the best comps at this stage in his career are guys like Leo Gomez, Joe Crede, Jeff King, Roy Howell, Ty Wigginton, Wes Chamberlain, Wil Cordero, and Joe Carter. Those are some decent ballplayers, but nobody particularly special (unless you dig RBI).
September 5, 2007 at 3:01 pm
47: April was his worst month, but June was bad too.
He has the lowest OPS among NL rookies with at least 300 at-bats, but that’s not park-adjusted. By VORP, which is adjusted, he’s 33rd in the majors. Most of the players below him have far fewer at-bats. All this sounds like I’m more down on him than I am, but those are the facts.
48 (catcher): Neither Morton nor Carlin will see any defensive duty unless something bad happens or we clinch, so they went with the hitter.
48 (kk): They might do that, but the Padres can look at Kouz’s defense too. That’s the differentiator. I don’t expect Headley to substantially outhit Kouz his first season. It may also depend on how they fill other holes. If they find a CF and sign Bradley, they might be more tempted to season Headley and give Kouz another shot.
September 5, 2007 at 3:10 pm
Actually, a great comp for Kouz at the same age is Khalil’s ‘05 season:
Khalil ‘05: .250/.296/.431, 25 BB, 93 SO, 97 OPS+
Kouz ‘07: .248/.301/.427, 24 BB, 84 SO, 93 OPS+
When you account for the fact that Khalil is an above-average defender at short and Kouz is below average at third, the problem becomes clear.
I like Kouz, and he’s the best third baseman we’ve had since Burroughs in ‘03-’04 (which is an indictment of our inability to field a legit big leaguer at the position), but he can be replaced.
September 5, 2007 at 3:18 pm
27 … Dirk deserves it, thanks for the link, TW!
September 5, 2007 at 3:21 pm
I think one KG is enough for any offense…that OBP is brutal on its good days.
September 5, 2007 at 3:23 pm
The vote is in, a while back I posted a link about Triple A Portland thinking about changing their name and ultimatly screwing with history.
Well the vote is in!
http://tinyurl.com/2was33
September 5, 2007 at 3:41 pm
Here’s a comparison, Rob Neyer style, just for fun:
Kevin Kouzmanoff’s rookie season: 391 AB, .248/.301/.427, 15 HR, 58 RBI, 19 Errors
Mystery player’s rookie season: 367 AB, .196/.324/.373, 18 HR, 52 RBI, 17 Errors
September 5, 2007 at 3:43 pm
But Lynch made me think abt the obvious reason the Pads brought up Morton , It would be nice to be able pinch hit Barrett against a lefty late (or Morton early ) in the game and not have to worry about burning a catcher. Carlin may be better, but heck Morton could get ahold of a fastball and maybe drive one out.
September 5, 2007 at 3:43 pm
Give me a hard one.
Mike Schmidt, but he was three years younger.
September 5, 2007 at 3:44 pm
Morton went to N.C. State, so he will be a great, great player.
September 5, 2007 at 3:48 pm
[i]Give me a hard one.[/i]
I know, I know.
September 5, 2007 at 3:54 pm
59: How the hell did you figure that out so quickly?? Just wondering…
September 5, 2007 at 4:00 pm
Phillies blew a huge lead late and lost an absolute heartbreaker today in Atlanta. No one vying for the Wild Card seems to be able lately to play consistent ball - this leads me to believe that the NL West will get 2 of the 3 playoff spots.
Meanwhile, the Mets #2 or #3 starter John Maine got racked today in Cincy, losing 7-0. Would a Hernandez-Martinez-Maine/O.perez rotation strike fear in your Padre heart in a short series ? Pads have to be the favorites to win a NL Pennant.
September 5, 2007 at 4:52 pm
Obviously April is a part of the season as well. But the purpose of player evaluation is primarily predictive. The Padres need to know what Kouz is going to do next year, not punish him for what he did in April. I know that some on the board have tired of the “since May 1″ numbers, but those numbers seem to be a better basis for projection than the entire season line because they demonstrate improvement. Are we assuming that Headley is going to do better than Kouz’s post-April line of .278/.340/.481? I don’t think that he will. I think that Headley or Kouz may start in LF if Bradley leaves or moves to CF, but we’re not going to give up on Kouz (and, in my opinion, we shouldn’t) after those pretty good (but not great) post-April numbers.
September 5, 2007 at 4:56 pm
63 … I’ve heard several radio-based pundits draw this same conclusion recently …
60 … uh, so did Vern Sterry … and here’s the rest of the list …
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....0235.shtml
… I work with a WolfPacker, so I’ve had this conversation before
56 … thanks for the GREAT news about the “Beavers”!
re: KK … I still like his trend, and therefore potential/upside … just based on what limited info I have, it sure seems like KK has more “power potential” than Headley and I’m in favor of any decision process which enables that potential to be explored to its fullest (ie. I’m fine with him being on OF’er, ’cause it does seem like his defense at 3B is currently pretty expensive) …
September 5, 2007 at 4:57 pm
There are only 8 3B with a OPS over .820 this year in all of baseball. If we throw out Kouz’s April numbers (and I read post-63 for an explanation of why I believe that we can when evaluating him for next year), that puts him in pretty good company. He’s earned the right to have the job next year at the start of the season.
If he hits .108 in April again…I’d bet that we’d see Headley pretty fast.
September 5, 2007 at 4:59 pm
64 … hmmm, PaulR tries to up-the-ante from “good” to “pretty good” for his post-April ABs … I’d prefer to stick with “good” …
September 5, 2007 at 5:00 pm
67: I thought I was qualifying my statement enough by saying “not great”
September 5, 2007 at 5:04 pm
68 … no, no … it’s clear to me that “good” is less than “pretty good” which is less than “great” … i’m not sure if there’s anything more in between “pretty good” and “great” … seems like there might still be a gap there … and is “mediocre” between “decent” and “good”?
September 5, 2007 at 5:05 pm
63
El Duque would worry me. Dude can look like crap in the regular season, but in the postseason, it’s a different story. Needless to say, we have the guys that could match up against him.
You’d have to take one of those guys out (probably Ollie) because Glavine would start game 2 or 3.
September 5, 2007 at 5:08 pm
69: I believe that mediocre has a more negative connotation than “decent.” While I do believe that Kouz’s numbers have been “good” I was actually using pretty as a qualifier rather than as an endorsement of said numbers. I think “pretty good” can rank either ahead of or behind “good” depending on the tone of voice that’s used.
September 5, 2007 at 5:15 pm
63 - We’re potentially going into this post season in the same situation we did last year: one ace on his stuff, one ace a little bit shaky and a 40+ year-old for our third starter.
I don’t think our pitching staff makes our chances any better or worse then last year - I fully expected to make it past St. Louis. Experience teaches me to be more respectful of any opponent this year.
September 5, 2007 at 5:21 pm
64: I’m not a mathematician, but how could Kouz have a post-April OBP of 340 when his OBPs for those months are 375, 295, 314, 333, and 308? That seems to be someplace in the 320s, which is still better than April.
It’s not punishment. As bad as Kouz has been defensively, Headley wouldn’t have to match his numbers - although an 800+ OPS is well within reason.
Kouz’s bat could play in left. The question is, can his body? He does give them options, as LM wrote.
September 5, 2007 at 5:24 pm
71 … that’s a pretty good point, Paul … now, how do I get a “tone” into one of these comments??? Ah, with a smile
September 5, 2007 at 5:25 pm
73: I’m not sure. It’s totally possible that there’s a problem with my math, but I have him having 320 post-April AB’s and getting 89 hits and 20 BB’s during that time…that’s 109/320 which is .340. Maybe he had more AB’s in months in which he did well which skews the #’s?
I’m an English teacher…so please, check my math.
September 5, 2007 at 5:29 pm
75: you have to add the BB to both the hit and AB totals for computer OBP. Therefore it would be 109/340 which is a 320 OBP.
September 5, 2007 at 5:30 pm
73 … KK was at his low (.108 .172 .193) after the game on May 7th … since then he’s .286 .336 .490 in 308 ABs … according to this …
http://www.baseballmusings.com.....yerID=5995
… and 0 CSs also!
September 5, 2007 at 5:31 pm
77: That’s close enough for this English teacher to count it as a win. Now only if I could get my students to get that close to academic English…
September 5, 2007 at 5:33 pm
Let’s see what I can do with data from Yahoo …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/pl.....JVFq6FCLcF
September 5, 2007 at 6:06 pm
77, 78: Ah, you’re taking out his bad week in May. But you’re both more right than me anyway. It’s still heavily skewed by May, just in the opposite direction. Post AS he’s at 808 OPS (318/491), but that K/BB ratio is scary. That’s something that could improve with experience.
September 5, 2007 at 6:14 pm
#70 of course, Tom Glavine.