IGD: Padres vs Giants (16 Sep 07)
Sun, Sep 16, 2007
by Geoff Young
| time: | 1:05 p.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Jake Peavy (17-6, 2.44) vs Tim Lincecum (7-4, 3.99) |
| pre: | Padres.com, B-R.com |
Swish. Swoosh. Ah, that’s a real nice breeze.
Also, congrats to Khalil Greene on becoming the 10th shortstop in big-league history to collect 40 doubles and 20 homers in the same season.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 16, 2007 at 8:47 am
Mets, could you try to win at least one game from the Phillies. Guess we want to the Dodgers to win again too, becuase we are after the NL title. Go Padres.
BTW, love how Tomko matches Wells in performance.
September 16, 2007 at 9:04 am
I’m still tempted to desire a Pads win (surprise) and a Dodgers loss.
September 16, 2007 at 9:16 am
No point in ripping on Mr. Greene, but his OPS is the lowest on that impressive list by about 50 points…
September 16, 2007 at 9:37 am
I’ve got a question, maybe GY or one of you Ducksnorters could help me. Friday I was listening to XM 175 (the baseball channel for those who don’t have XM). And the Host was talking to Charlie Stiener (ugh, for some reason he annoys the crap out of me, except for that Sportcenter Commercial that aired around the who Y2K thing).
Anyways, he was talking about the fact that even a fat kid with a hand full of cake could swipe second on SD. So what I want to know is, are Bard and Barrett that bad? Or are the bases being stolen on the pitchers?
September 16, 2007 at 9:43 am
4: I’ve got to say, that A) I agree with you about Charlie Steiner (I used to listen to Home Plate all of the time, but as a Padres fan, it can be nauseating)
and B) As weak as an arm that Bard has, most of those bases are stolen by the time the ball leaves the pitchers’ hands. Especially against CY, who has given up the largest percentage of those bases.
September 16, 2007 at 9:43 am
4: I’d say its a little of both. Alot of guys are getting HUGE jumps on our pitchers and are basically safe before Bard (or Barrett) gets a throw off. Neither Bard or Barrett have great arms, but bost of the time our starters dont slide step from the stretch. To be honest, stolen bases really are not something I worry about all that much and it seems like it is something that people in the media are making a big deal of for nothing.
September 16, 2007 at 9:53 am
Does anyone know the record for most stolen bases on a team per season? I’d kinda like to see if we could break that record while still getting into the play offs.
September 16, 2007 at 9:55 am
You would never know that SD was a major media market. This is based on the UT’s blantant ignorance in regards to their knowledge of the major league franchise that they are paid to cover. Today Krasovic referred to Ekstrom as a lefthanded pitcher (though he is a righty) and last week the UT misspelled Geer’s named referring to him as Greer !
September 16, 2007 at 9:58 am
8: Is SD a major media market?
September 16, 2007 at 10:00 am
#9 San Diego is the 8th largest city in the U.S
September 16, 2007 at 10:15 am
SD is the 8th largest City but its not the 8th largest media market. There are a ton of transplants here who still read/watch/follow the media from their home town. I can’t say I blame them because all of SD’s media outlets are terrible.
September 16, 2007 at 10:19 am
Also SD does not have the surroundings to make it a large media market with LA to the north, Mexico to the south, the Pacific to the west and the desert to the east there are really no surrounding communities that latch onto the SD media market like there would be in cities like Atlanta, Dallas, San Francisco, Detroit, Baltimore, ect…
September 16, 2007 at 10:23 am
Today is a HUGE day for the Padre’s faithful. We have a good shot to sweep this series against the Giants, if we do and the Phillies lose today -we can open a much needed 2.5 game lead on them . The Phils have a fairly easy schedule the rest of the way (Cole Hamels is coming back) and so a cushion is needed. The Phils scare me now and if met in the playoffs so a loss today would be huge. Also, if we complete the sweep over the Giants, the winner of the Dodger - Dbacks game of course doesn’t gain ground BUT the loser has the Pads (Az only 1 game up or Dodgers 2.5 games back) is in trouble. The upcoming Pirates series is one that we need to take 3 of 4 of. Here are the pitching matchups : Game #1 Cassel vs Van Benscoten #2 Maddux v Gorzelanny #3 Young v Snell #4 Tomko v Morris —This series will not be easy –Snell and Gorzelanny can be tough and the two games we have easier starting foes in, we are throwing Cassel and Tomko……
1)
September 16, 2007 at 10:40 am
#9: Can’t find newspaper stats, but SD is the 17th largest radio market (Spring 2007) and 27th largest TV market (Summer 2007):
http://www.arbitron.com/radio_.....001050.asp
http://www.lostremote.com/2007.....-released/
September 16, 2007 at 10:47 am
#14: Okay, found newspapers. As of March 2007, the U-T was ranked #26 in the US:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L.....irculation
September 16, 2007 at 10:53 am
#14 Thanks. As a former media sales guy, I should have thought of the arbitron numbers before I consulted wikipedia on raw pop. numbers.
Phillies already up 2-0…..these guys always get hot at the end of the year. The Pads need to go 10-5 the rest of the way to finish 90-72.
90 wins for a baseball team is kind of like Lawler’s Law http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ralph_Lawler
( Lawler’s Law: The first team to 100 points wins the game. In games involving the Clippers since 1978, Lawler’s law has been true 91.5% of the time) –I haven’t tested the 90 win theory with any scientific method or historical study but it seems like 90 wins is the magic number to get teams into the postseason
September 16, 2007 at 11:01 am
14: So does that make us a “major” media market?
September 16, 2007 at 11:07 am
#14: Well, we’re behind places like Minneapolis and Seattle in radio; Cleveland, Denver, Orlando, Sacramento, St. Louis, Pittsburgh, Portland (OR), etc. in TV…
September 16, 2007 at 11:11 am
How sweet would a Dbacks collapse over the last 15 games and a backdoor cover for the Pads to win their 3rd straight West title.
September 16, 2007 at 11:16 am
19: I was just thinking today that the D’backs somehow falling out of the playoffs while the Dodgers and the Padres sneak in would be ideal. I’m no Dodger lover, but I’m so sick of the D’backs whining that nobody takes them seriously. “We’re better than our stats.”
Yeah? Seems like it’s time to provie it.
September 16, 2007 at 11:19 am
That last 4 game series in Milwaukee scares me.
Milwaukee is playing great at home this year and if that place fills up for a Milwaukee team battling for a title than the Pads may have a tough time going in there with the expectation of winning 3 of/or 4 games. Let’s hope that we get red hot and win 8 of the next 11 and wrap something up before #162 = then we can enjoy seeing Colt Morton and Craig Stansberry start a game on a lazy Sunday afternoon (not to mention being able to actually enjoy some NFL games w/o switching back and forth like a madman)
September 16, 2007 at 11:53 am
#20 The Phils will not lose many more games this year. If the Pads get hot and the Dbacks slip then I could see the Phils and Pads in the dance.
September 16, 2007 at 12:04 pm
17.
I took an economics class a few years ago from a professor that was an SD sports fan and he broke it down sort of like this in one of his rants. He said that because we have Orange County and LA to the north, the Pacific Ocean to the west, Mexico to the south and the desert to the east our market area in terms of coverage is very small. I don’t have any numbers but it made sense to me. He said that Orange County media is primarily covered by LA and Mexico/TJ is considered it’s own market. With the desert and the ocean being inhabited by primarily snakes and fish the San Diego market is a lot smaller than it would appear by our population. A lot of bigger markets are covering larger area’s and in some cases multiple states.
September 16, 2007 at 12:07 pm
5&6: Thanks, I figured that to be the case. But Stiener was in Dodger Schill mode.
September 16, 2007 at 12:14 pm
I was at the game last night. Dave Roberts had his back foot 6 inches out of the batters box. Did TV mention this???? It was so obvious….
September 16, 2007 at 12:30 pm
Mets tied it up ! 5-5 . Beltran hits a 3 run blast off Eaton. Looks like the Pads are going with a mostly right handed hitting lineup against Lincecum. I am very pleased that I don’t have to see Sledge in a platoon situation any longer. In fact, we will probably not have to see Sledge much longer as a Padre period. I can’t see the Padres having Sledge or the injured Mackowiak on any post season roster.
September 16, 2007 at 12:41 pm
Myrow has ended up being the second left handed pinch hitter off of the bench. I like this guy–he battles every at bat, really works the count. He will continue to get opportunities down the stretch. Cassel has pitched decently since his return and I really like Stansberry’s poise and his possibilities to become a decent utility guy. Before this, another player found of the scrap heap, Pete Laforest contributed to a few big wins.
Was the AAA Portland team a symptom of a down farm system ? Yes … but do we temper our critique when considering how much value KT gets out of a bag full of coal or odds & ends ? Yes. K.T did use the Portland franchise as a taxi squad, but kudos for him to recognize what needed to be done to help the big league team this particular year.
September 16, 2007 at 12:42 pm
26: One of those guys is almost guaranteed to be on the roster. We don’t need to carry as many pitchers (how many we will carry, I don’t know). We’ll definitely want at least one lefty bat off the bench, probably more, and Sledge, Mackowiak, and Myrow are the only guys that fit that description.
September 16, 2007 at 12:46 pm
They got to be booing big time in the Big Apple. The Phils just put up a 5 spot. I am telling you, the Phils will not lose many down the stretch—that lineup is damn good. A DBACKS loss today wouldn’t be a bad thing either…this 4 team race for the last two spots is getting mighty interesting.
September 16, 2007 at 12:55 pm
The Pads have some interesting decisions to make regarding a post season roster. I suppose, at this point, you have to give Sledge the nod over Myrow.But what if Myrow cashes in on some of these opportunities and Sledge continues to struggle ? To me, Hairston is a lock for one of the spots.
Is there any value to having Marcus Giles on a post season roster ? Not sure of the answer on this one. Marcus has been absolutely brutal at the plate but Stansberry is wholly unproven at this level. Do you give Marcus a shot in the post season against the lefties ? If not, why have Marcus on the roster. He is not a good guy to bring in off the bench in the late innings. He seems to swing for the fences every time up and strikes out way too much when all you need late sometimes is some little ball to move runners.
BTW. Mackowiak is slated to get surgery in the off season as he actually, at present, is affllicted with two hernias so I doubt that he will get a spot.
September 16, 2007 at 2:05 pm
30: Re: Marcus Giles. We need another middle infielder, so yes, he’s guaranteed a spot. Plus he’s a better defensive infielder and can hit lefties better than Blum. So he has his uses.
September 16, 2007 at 2:12 pm
I hate to sound like a boring baseball player, but the Padres need to just win games. We talk all the time about wild card this, division that… but we control our own destiny…
Someone wrote they need to go 10-5 down the stretch to get in to the post season… that sounds pretty good, but 11-4 is better, and realistic…. SF, Colo., Pitt and Mil. are ahead… two BAD teams, and two very average teams… no reason to lose even one series the rest of the way.
(btw, we went 11-4 in our last 15 last year, and one of the losses was that Dodger miracle game, so it very well could have been 12-3)
September 16, 2007 at 2:54 pm
When was the last time Marcus Giles had a big hit against a lefty (outside of a game in May ?) . Forget Marcus getting any post season starts.
September 16, 2007 at 2:58 pm
But Marcus makes the postseason roster. That’s not even a question.
September 16, 2007 at 2:59 pm
Holy Crap….KK may end the season batting .270 with 17-20 homers and 70+ rbi’s..what the hell is wrong with that ? Thanks to the Padres management for not giving up on KK like I had asked you to !! Where’s Richard (blogger of Ducksnorts fame) ? He told me over and over that KK had as much upside as any hitter in this lineup and I semi-scoffed. I may be dead wrong Richard.
September 16, 2007 at 3:03 pm
#34 You’re probably right. It’s more than the numbers, emotion and chemistry plays into the equation. Heck, maybe at the very end he gets hot or comes up with a big hit (ig-Chris Gwynn).
September 16, 2007 at 3:04 pm
There might be some interesting decisions: What about Cassel, Ensberg, do you need two lefties?
September 16, 2007 at 3:07 pm
33: Why does it matter whether the hits are big or not? Doesn’t it just matter that Marcus Giles is hitting lefties better than Geoff Blum?
September 16, 2007 at 3:13 pm
Statiscally over the course of the season and for that matter their careers, Giles is a better hitter than Blum against righties. But lets focus on the present…who is putting better swings on the ball day in and day out from the right hand side. Marcus is now almost completely worthless at the plate right. At this point (not in May) Blum is a better hitter than Marcus against lefties. That should tell you just how bad Marcus is right now.
September 16, 2007 at 3:14 pm
sorry, important correction *against lefties*
September 16, 2007 at 3:17 pm
We won’t be having this 2b debate past this year. These are Marcus Giles last days in a Padres uniform. What are we going to do next year at second base ? Antonelli needs one more year. Think Stansberry could be the guy for a year ?
September 16, 2007 at 3:30 pm
Anyone just see that Geoff Blum pivot (9th) ? What would it hurt, if you’re going to keep Marcus Giles on the roster, from at least coming in as a defensive replacement ? If they don’t do this in the playoff, they will get burned.
September 16, 2007 at 3:54 pm
And I now realizing that I am shirking logic and knee jerking it -of course Marcus is on the playoff roster as a middle infielder. It won’t be Stansberry so we have to employ Marcus as no one else (Hairston ?) can play second base.
September 16, 2007 at 5:40 pm
good sweep… we need it, now we need at least 3 out of the Pirates.
Talking to myself over at http://mvn.com/nfl-chargers , if anyone is around and interested.
September 16, 2007 at 6:01 pm
Storm are down 5-1 after 3 …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_sjgafa_1
… Leubke pitching for Storm … gave up a coupla unearned runs in 2nd …
September 16, 2007 at 7:30 pm
45 … Best-of-5 Cal League Championship Series is now tied at 2-2 … Storm offense has been totally shut down now in games 3 & 4 … Storm losing today 6-1 … Game 5 is tomorrow … in San Jose …
September 16, 2007 at 7:34 pm
OT … check out what Andrew Brown did today …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270916111
… ouch!
(ps. In case you’re wondering, he’s the guy the Padres traded to the A’s for Jenga … er, Milton Bradley (ie. if you need to be told who Andrew Brown is, you probably need to be told who Jenga is too
).
September 16, 2007 at 8:22 pm
It’s why I love September baseball - When guys like 32 year old Joe Dillon for the Brewers win ball games late in the year.
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7549
Maybe 31 year old Myrow will win one down the stretch for the Pads.
September 16, 2007 at 10:02 pm
Here’s a Q&A from BA …
What do the Padres plan on doing with Chase Headley? Is he going to get the chance to challenge Kevin Kouzmanoff at third base? If not, where does Headley fit in?
Ryan Lillis
San Ramon, Calif.
The knock on Headley coming into 2007 was that he had questionable power for a third baseman, but he has erased that with a big season at Double-A San Antonio. He hit .330/.437/.580 with 20 homers and 78 RBIs in 121 games.
Kouzmanoff put up even better numbers in the minors last year, and in that context, his .263/.316/.443 performance with 16 homers and 63 RBIs in 127 games is somewhat of a disappointment. However, he has batted .307/.352/.520 since the all-star break, providing the production the Padres expected.
Milton Bradley and Mike Cameron become free agents at the end of the season, so San Diego could move Headley or Kouzmanoff to left field. They both are below-average runners and athletes, and Kouzmanoff has been a liability at the hot corner this season, so he’d probably be the one making the position switch.
If the Padres don’t shift one of them to the outfield, Kouzmanoff will be under pressure to produce. I’d think he’d open the season as the starter and Headley would get some time in Triple-A, but Kouzmanoff would have to improve offensively against righthanders (he has a .697 OPS against them, compared to .909 against lefties) and defensively to hold him off.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....64866.html
September 16, 2007 at 10:12 pm
Jon Coniff said that Headley will spend next year in AAA on the radio today. They dont believe either him or Antonelli are ready for next year.