Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

I give much of the credit for that to Geoff, for creating such a good environment. I give the rest of it to all of us who say what we mean and back it up with data.

Sure,I write my own blog for MVN. Proud of it. But I’m a Ducksnorter, too. Count on it.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Petco may have made Bell more confident. It might also be that he knew he wasn’t going to shuttle back and forth from the majors to AAA like he did with the Mets. Or being home in San Diego county. Or just growing up some.

If he was a prospect you liked, I expect we’d read that Antonelli’s August is normal fatigue for a player in his first full season as a pro, and lots of words on his 1.200 OPS in July.

Bias is a loaded term for any journalist, which is why I went to blinders. And then lazy, which….hell, that was a deliberate tweak. What can I say, if there’s a fight to be picked, I pick it like I’m going after a booger stuck in the deepest reach of a dry sinus cavity.

I don’t think you’re intentionally portraying the Padres as worse than your analysis tells you they are. I don’t think you’re changing the data. Those would be bias. I suspect that before you ever get to the analysis part, your brain has loaded the near-subconscious Padre filters (Petco! Moneyball!).

I thought Antonelli was a weak pick too. Ryan Freel, I called him. I believe I underestimated his athleticism and the potential of coaching to get more load in his swing. A 187 ISO with 21 HR changed my mind.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Braun needs a position change as well, but unlike Kouzmanoff, his bat will play in an outfield corner, and he’s a better athlete than Kouzmanoff, which makes me think he’ll be a better defensive LF.

Antonelli’s banging out XBH and keeping his OBP over 400 in AA and, as far as I know, he’s still a utilityman to you.

Antonelli has hit .237/.343/.386 in August, so he is neither “banging out XBH” nor “keeping his OBP over .400.” That small sample aside, my criticism of Antonelli and the pick was based on two things you did not address: His swing, which I don’t like at all; and his lack of a clear position. Now, all that said, I believe Antonelli is scheduled to go to the Arizona Fall League, and I’ll see him there and make a new evaluation.

Heath Bell has a lower ERA and better K rate on the road, but you dismissed him as a product of Petco earlier this year.

The blind faith some people here, Tom included, show in home/road splits really befuddles me. First of all, we know they’re small samples and subject to numerous other factors, like the fact that “road” games are more defined by what they are NOT than what they are (that is, not all baskets of road games are equivalent, even for players on the same team). But second of all, this misses the entire point of my argument about Petco and pitchers and the team’s strategy, one I talked about again in chat today. The Padres target pitchers who can’t succeed in other major-league environments, because their fastballs are short (Hampson, Germano, Meredith) or because their fastball command is poor (Bell, Cameron), but who had good minor-league stats. Having seen some of those pitchers prior to their arrival in San Diego and after, I believe that these pitchers’ entire modes of pitching have changed, and the ballpark is a major if not the sole reason for it. These guys pitch off their fastballs far more and with more confidence than I’d ever seen in them before. Bell, for example, was in a pitchers’ environment with a pretty highly regarded pitching coach, yet struggled, particularly with the longball; his fastball is flat and he didn’t command it. I saw him with the Mets last year, and saw him again last week with the Padres. He’s commanding his fastball better, but the difference to me is that he’s much more aggressive with it (and with his breaking ball as well), like he’s pitching without fear of giving up the long ball, which was a big problem for him with the Mets. He’s not afraid to go to the top of the strike zone with his fastball. I’ve seen the same transformation with Meredith, who actually did surrender two homers in games where I saw him, but still pitches like that’s not a fear. The most likely explanation, to me at least, is 81 games in a park where it’s very hard to hit the ball out, to say nothing of the 20-25 games a year they get in pitchers’ parks on the road.

Recognizing this and tailoring your roster construction strategy to fit it is smart management, something I have said before but that folks like Tom prefer to ignore, saying silly things like “you’re biased” instead because it spares them the trouble of thinking. The Padres can spend less on their pen, with only Hoffman currently pulling down seven figures out there, because they know they can find guys like this on the cheap. It keeps money available for other needs. But the same strategy wouldn’t work in most other parks, so when someone asks me if I like Heath Bell or if Chris Young is a #2 starter, I’m going to say no, because those are abstract questions that deserve an answer that goes beyond the players’ current environment.

Anyway, that’s much more than I intended to write when I sat down, but those are my thoughts. As I said above, a lot of this is subjective, and I don’t mind the disagreements. But give the bias nonsense a rest.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

re: 3B-man of the future … do you think the same of the Brewer’s Braun? Kouz is “our guy” … for now … we don’t want his defense to be as bad as it’s seem’d at times … and we prefer to ignore his amazingly bad start … we’re a franchise desparate for power, and he looks like he’s got some and still developing …

44 … re: praise and criticism … I think Keith’s got it right in that what he writes will be based on his current philosophies … if he sees those not working out over a long period of time, then he’ll change those philosophies … and then his praise’s and criticism’s will adjust accordingly. Let’s hope a few more years of Padres winning effects such a change

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

If you happen to stop by again: “the moron comment” was from one post. The (mostly) fine folks here aren’t knee-jerk defensive types about their team.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)

#43: Brad Penny owns a horse? I had no idea. As for my wife’s bet, let’s just say she’s buying dinner tonight.

Current score: 0 (to vote for this comment, please visit the site)