Fun with Win Shares
Wed, Jul 11, 2007
by Geoff Young
On page 970 of The New Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract
| Yr | C | 1B | 2B | 3B | SS | LF | CF | RF | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4 | S5 | RA | Bn | Stf | Tot |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Statistics are through games of June 28, 2007, and are courtesy of Bill James’ Win Shares (pre-2005; aff link) and The Hardball Times. RA = relief ace (closer); Bn = bench players; Stf = pitchers other than S1 - S5 or RA. |
|||||||||||||||||
| ‘84 | 12 | 15 | 23 | 16 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 35 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 15 | 22 | 30 | 276 |
| ‘96 | 7 | 16 | 11 | 38 | 9 | 16 | 27 | 17 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 20 | 30 | 33 | 273 |
| ‘98 | 10 | 22 | 23 | 20 | 15 | 30 | 15 | 19 | 26 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 20 | 35 | 27 | 294 |
| ‘05 | 10 | 8 | 15 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 35 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 56 | 40 | 251 |
| ‘06 | 12 | 17 | 18 | 1 | 13 | 20 | 28 | 23 | 12 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 37 | 39 | 267 |
| ‘07 | 6 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 12 | 20 | 133 |
Some random observations:
- The ‘84 squad was incredibly balanced. The only real weaknesses were a lackluster bench (Tim Flannery, Luis Salazar, Bobby Brown) and fifth starter Andy Hawkins.
- It’s easy to forget how completely dominant Trevor Hoffman used to be. He still gets the job done these days, but anyone who doubts Hoffman’s greatness needs to watch tapes of him from ‘96 and ‘98.
- Brian Giles gets a lot of grief for not being the player in San Diego that he was in Pittsburgh, but he pretty much carried the Padres into the playoffs in ‘05. The list of Padres who have posted 30+ win shares in a single season is a short one:
Player Year WS Tony Gwynn 1997 39 Ken Caminiti 1996 38 Tony Gwynn 1984 35 Brian Giles 2005 35 Dave Winfield 1979 33 Mark Loretta 2004 33 Gary Sheffield 1992 32 Jack Clark 1989 31 Phil Nevin 2001 31 Tony Gwynn 1989 30 Greg Vaughn 1998 30 Ryan Klesko 2002 30 Just something to bear in mind the next time you’re hating on OG.
- I’d forgotten that the Padres essentially didn’t have a fifth starter in ‘96. Sean Bergman, Scott Sanders, and Tim Worrell all split time between the rotation and bullpen, doing a surprisingly good job in both roles. Bruce Bochy probably deserves more credit than he’s given for the way he handled that pitching staff.
- The ‘98 squad was so good. Two horses at the top of the rotation, balanced lineup, dominant closer. If they’d faced anyone but a historically great Yankees team…
- I hate to say it, but the ‘05 squad probably didn’t belong in the playoffs. Giles, Jake Peavy, and a great bench is a nice start, but it’s not enough.
- The ‘06 squad, except for a gaping hole at third base, was pretty darned good. Last year’s team matches up well with the ‘84 and ‘96 versions. Note the rotation’s consistency from top to bottom.
- I still haven’t seriously studied the market, but I’m starting to think it would be a mistake to dismiss Mike Cameron as a long-term option in center field. He’s got the same lean, rangy build that Steve Finley had, and like Finley, he keeps himself in great shape. Cameron is a streaky player who has been one of the Padres’ most effective weapons over the past two months and who was an absolute terror in ‘06 once he got healthy. Cameron is a year older than Finley was in his walk year, but given what I know about both players, I have a hunch (and that’s all it is) that Cameron will age well.
A little food for thought. Chew slowly…
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July 11, 2007 at 7:52 am
This is a great chart. Is there a way to project out the 2007 win shares? And what kind of second half would Peavy or CY have to have to match Kevin Brown’s ‘98 Win Share total?
July 11, 2007 at 8:12 am
Very fun comparison. It’s interesting to see how much Adrian and Marcus’ early success have pushed their win shares up. It would be interesting to get an update on these like bi-weekly or monthly to see how people are doing.
July 11, 2007 at 9:46 am
Since Peavy only pitched one inning yesterday, does that now allow him to pitch Friday instead of Maddux?
July 11, 2007 at 9:56 am
I don’t mind Peavy getting the extra rest, as long as it doesn’t take away a total start for the second half. 75 games left, he should get 15 whether he goes Friday, Saturday, or Sunday. He’s been healthy this year but not so much in the past.
July 11, 2007 at 10:18 am
About Cameron…it takes 2 to make a deal. I think Cameron is going to jump at the chance to get back closer to home in Atlanta.
July 11, 2007 at 10:59 am
I think the thing with Cameron is going to be that some team out there will give him 3 or 4 years at maybe $7-8 million or more. I have a hard time believing that the Padres FO would commit that money to a player that may not be starting in 2 years. If Dave Roberts gets the money and years he got Cammy will get his too and I personally don’t see the Padres taking a risk for that much money and that many years on a visably declining talent. That’s just me though.
July 11, 2007 at 11:05 am
Cammy will not be back next year, he would have already signed an extension if he was. Alderson is like AJ smith they put a price on a player and if they dont accept that price then they let them go.
July 11, 2007 at 12:09 pm
SI.com has their mid-season grades for the NL West. I can’t believe the Rox have a higher grade than the Pads…
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....rades.html
July 11, 2007 at 12:10 pm
anybody want to venture a guess what our outfield would look like if both Cameron and Bradley are gone after this year?
July 11, 2007 at 12:28 pm
Re: 9 Headly LF, Giles CF, P-Mac RF
July 11, 2007 at 12:29 pm
j/k I think it will be:
LF: P-Mac
CF: Rowand
RF: Giles
Bench:
Sledge
Bocachica
July 11, 2007 at 12:32 pm
9.
No! I don’t want to imagine that or the batting lineup. Moves are definitely going to have to be made before then hopefully 1 or 2 of them soon. But who?
July 11, 2007 at 12:33 pm
8 … thanks for the link … I’m OK with the Padres and Rox grades … it’s nice that grade not = wins … we all know wins … it seems like his grades are relative to expectations … and the Padres are pretty close to expectations and the Rox are exceding expectations … fair enough … especially when he says this …
Facing the likes of Jake Peavy and Chris Young in the postseason could be death to anyone’s World Series dreams.
July 11, 2007 at 12:58 pm
7: They dropped extension talks back in April when Cammy was hitting a buck something and looking generally awful. From what we hear, the front office doesn’t like dealing with extension talks during the season and no one was interested in signing Cammy in April, but things have obviously changed since then.
Whatever happens, I hope our solution is better than some combination of 4A players a la Sledge and the like.
July 11, 2007 at 1:10 pm
I think if Bradley stays healthy and plays good defense he’ll be re-signed to play center next year. That’s what I’m rooting for at least, since I dislike Rowand and Byrnes (and it would mean Bradley helped the team a bunch this year). Andruw Jones is a fun pipe dream, but he and Tori Hunter will probably be too expensive.
Tim Sullivan wrote an article today in the UT about how difficult it will be to resign Peavy in two and a half years. It’s pretty ridiculous to even hypothesize about that at this point because so many things happen, especially to pitchers, in that amount of time.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....livan.html
July 11, 2007 at 1:12 pm
Padres 08 Lineup:
RF: Giles
2B: Giles
CF: Byrnes
1B: Gonzalez
3B: Kouz
SS: Greene
C: Bard
LF: P-Mac/Headley
Bench:
Blum
Laforest
Sledge
Bochachica
P-Mac/Headley
Starters:
Peavy
Young
Maddux
Hensley
Germano/Hampson
Pen:
Hoffy
Bell
Meredith
Ring
Germano/Hampson
Cassidy
Cameron
total opening day payroll = $50 mil with a promise for a deadline move
July 11, 2007 at 1:27 pm
A reminder that Baseball Prospectus is having a “free week” … here’s an article with a look forward at the 2nd half …
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6442
July 11, 2007 at 1:52 pm
I think that it will be Kouzmanoff and not Headley that ends up in leftfield. I also doubt that Bradley will be on the team next year, he just doesn’t seem like the kind of player that you want to keep on your team for more than half a season. I’d certainly like them to resign Cameron, but I bet they are extremely gunshy on signing aging players to extensions as they don’t want a replay of the Klesko, Nevin, Giles mess. Here’s the ultimate pipedream: LaRussa and Pujols are feuding in St. Louis, maybe they could trade for Albert?
July 11, 2007 at 1:55 pm
18.
What leads you to believe it will be Headley and not Kouz at 3rd?
July 11, 2007 at 2:00 pm
Headley has a much better defensive reputation at third than Kouz does.
July 11, 2007 at 2:04 pm
it would make more sense to convert Headley, he has the rest of the year in AA to learn the position, Headley is smaller and quicker and would be better suited to roam LF in petco.
July 11, 2007 at 2:05 pm
Re: 20 Kouz has shown that he can play 3B at the ML level.
July 11, 2007 at 2:18 pm
I would be very hard pressed to criticize Kouz’s defense at 3rd this year and it’s not like Headley is revered as the 2nd coming of Brooks Robinson I would think that it will be Headley making the move. Headley learning Left in the minors makes more sense to me than Kouz learning it in the majors. If Kouz was kicking balls all over the yard I would understand but he is surprising a lot of people that said he defense would kill us.
July 11, 2007 at 2:48 pm
Cumberland made his pro debut today for the AZL Padres …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;did=milb
… going 0-for-1 in a PH appearance … in an otherwise *very* uneventful game.
July 11, 2007 at 2:49 pm
Well, except for the fact the Kouz is last among 10 qualified NL 3B in fielding percentage, last in range factor, and sixth in zone rating, we shouldn’t conclude that he is kicking balls all over the yard.
I like the guy, but his D took a major turn for the worse about the time his O started picking up.
July 11, 2007 at 2:59 pm
Ouch well I guess he hasn’t seemed as bad as those numbers would lead you to believe. Whatever, I don’t really care who’s playing 3rd as long as they produce.
July 11, 2007 at 3:03 pm
16: you think marcus will be on the team next year, what about Headley at 2nd?
25: Most of that comes with being a rookie. He has been just fine at 3rd, Headley might make the move to left or maybe 2nd?… who knows minor league players are hard to predict. I’d like to see Headley put up another solid year first.
BTW… did Matt Antonelli get moved up, he is on the Missions roster…
July 11, 2007 at 3:08 pm
Re: 27 Headley would not move to 2B because Antonelli will be there in 09.
The pads will excersize Giles option in 08 for 2 reasons:
1. Make Brian happy and keep club house moral up.
2. keep the seat warm for Antonelli in 09 (who could they get for one year?)
July 11, 2007 at 3:08 pm
WOW!!! Antonelli did get moved up. That’s kinda crazy! He deserves it though! I am really anxious to see how he performs. There are some good players on that roster now!
July 11, 2007 at 3:11 pm
Huffman moved up as well, this must all be new because I cheked the SA roster after lunch and they were not on there. Good move’s im bummed because im going to a storm game on the 21st and i was really looking forward to seeing Antonelli.
July 11, 2007 at 3:13 pm
The Portland roster also has Eric Sogard on it an apparently he has played 1 game already. There was probably an injury or something but something to keep your eye on anyways.
July 11, 2007 at 3:29 pm
28: Headley would also not move to second because he would be very, very bad there. He doesn’t have a lot of range at 3rd. No experience turning two. Completely sabotaging his chance to succeed.
LF is so much easier to learn. One of them may go there, one of them may get traded, one may get hurt. But neither will be at second base.
July 11, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Giles will be the 2B next year, it makes way to much sense.
July 11, 2007 at 3:34 pm
Im disapointed that they did not move up Freese and move Headley to LF.
July 11, 2007 at 3:36 pm
on the Beavers Roster under status Stansberry is listed as “Reserve List (Minors)” does anyone know what that means?
July 11, 2007 at 3:42 pm
Does anybody know why Schmidt hasn’t made an appearance yet?
At least not that I’ve seen in the boxes.
July 11, 2007 at 3:42 pm
34.
It wouldn’t surprise me if they waited until after the trade deadline to do anything with Headley. He’s more valuble as a top minor league 3rd baseman for trade bait than a potential future LF’r. I am still seeing rumors about Adam Dunn and Chase’s name is attatched to them. I think that if they want to get a REAL impact bat he will probably have to be the bait.
July 11, 2007 at 3:44 pm
Re: 37 good point
July 11, 2007 at 3:52 pm
Re: 36 I would imagine that they are giving him a rest, he has thrown alot of innings this year down south.
July 11, 2007 at 4:00 pm
37: Yes, good point (echoing 38).
39: They said they were going to keep his innings very short this year. They didn’t watch Carrillo’s innings close enough his first season, even though he might have gotten hurt anyway.
July 11, 2007 at 4:07 pm
33: I dont think it makes that much sense, but they dont have much better options. Is it possible Antonelli makes it up next spring?
36: My guess is they are easing him in, he just made that appearance in Petco before the ASB. I am guessing he is throwing bullpens getting ready for a start or second starter spot in rookie ball.
37: ya i dont think they would do all that much with him in LF until next spring.
Why isnt Headley in Portland and Freese in SA?
July 11, 2007 at 4:09 pm
40: Do you think they are starting to look at Carrillo as more of a reliever now?
July 11, 2007 at 4:12 pm
I just notices Dylan Axelrod is on the rookieball roster. I dunno why I didnt notice him before. I liked what I saw from him in the CWS
July 11, 2007 at 4:27 pm
41: Because Portland is a train wreck. They want their best prospects in a good, winning environment. Also, Headley’s likely to see better overall pitchers in AA than he will in AAA. I’d like to see Freese moved faster, he’s old for A ball.
42: No. But he threw over 180 innings in 2005 between college and the minors, which was crazy.
July 11, 2007 at 4:53 pm
PCL is just getting destroyed its already 4-0 in the top of the 1st
July 11, 2007 at 5:00 pm
Geoff.funny you should analyze win shares at this time. Did you happen to see the quote in baseballgraphs.com(main index) that on page 14 of Bill Jame’s Win Shares he gave implicit permission for in season WS calculation?”Despite the ‘Book of Values’ given in this volume, you may wish to figure Win Shares for some other team, such as next year’s SAN DIEGO PADRES, as of the ALL STAR BREAK, or your son’s little-league team” One thing, depending on the timing there should be 14 more shares floating around this year. 49×3=147. I appreciate your good work that highlights the strenghs & weaknesses of this team.
July 11, 2007 at 5:58 pm
46 … re: “14 more win shares floating around” … what’s it mean when the calculated WS varies from actual W’s? Is it similar to delta’s in actual Ws vs “expected Ws” (like on http://www.coolstandings.com )?
July 11, 2007 at 6:07 pm
27 … where are you seeing a San Antonio roster?
The SA roster at milb.com doesn’t show Antonelli (as of right now, anyway) …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....p;sid=t510
July 11, 2007 at 6:14 pm
LM, Your reference is to expeced wins using a variation of the Pythagorean Theorem which is based on runs scored and runs scored upon. As I understand it WS, by it’s nature, should always be 3x runs scored. Except for 2007, all years on Geoff’s chart conform to that ratio. Possibly the WS and runs for 2007 were computed at different times.
July 11, 2007 at 6:29 pm
48: Interesting, both Huffman and Antonelli are not on the SA Missions roster anymore. It was in MiLB.com a couple hours ago when I posted it.
July 11, 2007 at 6:44 pm
25. Glad YOU brought that up. Anyone, is it correct that Kouz only played 111 game at 3rd in the minors and none last year? See The Baseball Cube data. I’m guessing he’s OF- bound.
July 11, 2007 at 7:22 pm
Antonelli is still with the Storm. He just missed a HR this minute- has a walk and a hit.
July 11, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Plenty of offense at San Antonio tonight …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_mroaax_1
July 11, 2007 at 8:23 pm
And at Lake Elsinore …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_lesafa_1
… Huffman with HR #15!
July 11, 2007 at 9:34 pm
31 … Sogard is playing for Eugene tonight …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_eugasx_1
… milb.com does show him going 0-for-3 in 1 game for Portland … huh.
July 12, 2007 at 7:17 am
Huffman was on this roster:
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....mp;cid=510
yesterday afternoon, but he is not now, maybe it was a typo.
July 12, 2007 at 11:06 am
56: So was Antonelli
July 13, 2007 at 9:14 am
#1: Brown had 26 win shares in ‘98, which is just insane for a pitcher. At the ASB, Peavy had 12 and CY had 11. Neither will catch Brown, but one or both could crack 20, which would be impressive.
#9: I’d rather not.
#18: Klesko and Nevin aren’t good comps for Cameron; different positions, different body types. I think Finley is more instructive in this case. I also maintain that Giles still has value; if nothing else, he almost single-handedly brought the Padres back to the playoffs in ‘05.
#46: You are correct, Malcolm, about the number of WS. These were through 6/28. The THT numbers have been updated through the ASB since I wrote this, and the Padres are credited with 15 more WS (I’m guessing there’s a rounding error in there somewhere).