Friday Links (6 Jul 07)
Fri, Jul 6, 2007
by Geoff Young
Adrian Gonzalez is very much ready for the All-Star break, and so am I. Light on the links today. Enjoy…
- On day Padres’ Young becomes All-Star, pitcher decides to start suspension (ESPN, via Steve C in the comments). Pretty self-explanatory. Glad to see Chris Young make the All-Star team. I don’t care one whit about the game itself, but I voted several times anyway because he is our guy and deserving of the honor. In return for my efforts, I look forward to receiving copious amounts of spam from MLB and its partners thanks to their obnoxious opt-out policy.
- The Kazmir conundrum (Hardball Times, via Didi in the comments). David Gassko examines the relationship between strikeouts, pitch counts, and overall effectiveness in pitchers. Folks, such as myself, who would like to see Young and Jake Peavy pitch more to contact may want to read this.
- Linebrink key link in late innings (Padres.com). Everyone’s favorite whipping boy in the bullpen gets a vote of confidence from Bud Black because, whoa, he’s still putting up good numbers. (Opponents are batting .224/.275/.399 against Scott Linebrink through July 5; that’s basically Miguel Olivo’s line.)
- Pitcher’s Park or Not, Padres Are Lights Out (New York Sun, via LaMar in the comments). Marc Normandin reminds us that the Padres pitching staff is not just a product of Petco Park and that the hitting is better than some folks might believe.
- Breaking down the draft: 10 more prospects (Hardball Times, via Paul R in the comments). Carlos Gomez’ latest installment includes Padres draftees Kellen Kulbacki and Drew Cumberland, with the former’s swing drawing comparisons to that of Rafael Palmeiro. Cumberland, meanwhile, is mentioned as a potential “Chone Figgins-type player with a little more power.”
That’s all for me. Peter?
by Peter Friberg
You will not see David Freese in San Antonio, yet. He’s still in Lake Elsinore. Looks like I got a little jumpy on that one…
AAA
No significant performances…
AA
Chase Headley: 5 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 2 RBI; SO
Nick Hundley: 2 AB, 3 R, 2 H, 5 RBI; 2 HR, 3 BB - true outcomes!
Will Venable: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 SO
Wade LeBlanc: 5.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO, 1 HR - 1st AA
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 3 AB, 3 R, 1 H, 2 RBI; 2 BB, SO
David Freese: 5 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 1 RBI - still here
Kyle Blanks: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 2 RBI; 2B, SB
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 0 RBI
Drew Miller: 5.1 IP, 7 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 1 HR
Short Season-A
Luis Durango: 5 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; SB
Eric Sogard: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 1 RBI; 2B, SB
Jeremy McBryde: 4.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
Rookie
Keoni Ruth: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 2B, 3B
Edgar Garzon: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 4 RBI; 2 2B
Matt Bush: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
Nick Hundley (read musically), “…oh what a night…” Nick hit .206 in April, .250 in May, .280 in June, and he’s 5 for 9 so far in July… I think he’s figuring out Double-A.
If Jeremy McBryde isn’t on your own watch-list, he should be. In 13.2 IP he’s given up 7 hits and walked 1 hitter while striking out 14… No wonder Grady Fuson raved about McBryde’s signing as much as Mat Latos’.
Keoni Ruth, drafted in the 22nd round out of Concordia University, has played 10 professional games and has amassed 39 professional at-bats. He has yet to strike out (he has walked five times). Keoni is hitting .487/.545/.718.
[Ed note: Ruth also attended USD for a while. Go Toreros!]
Thanks, Peter. The Braves are in town for the weekend. Friday’s IGD will be up around 6:00 p.m. PT. Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 6, 2007 at 8:08 am
Rumor is that Adrian is geting a day tonite. It will be interesting to see if it actually happens.
Any theorized timeline on when Bush starts getting pushed up the ranks? It seems like (for the most part), he’s dominating the AZL. Would they send him to Eugene next, or could they possibly skip Eugene and send him right to Fort Wayne?
July 6, 2007 at 8:10 am
Re: 1 I would imagine they would send him to Eugene and have him split time between ft wayne and LE next year.
July 6, 2007 at 8:28 am
Does anyone know, do we have any real shot at signing Christian Colon? Any news on Cumberland or Toledo? Any of the other unsigned draftee’s?
1.
Buddy confirmed Adrian will not “start” tonight. Unfortunantly he said Blum would start at 1st instead. It sure would be nice to have PMAC off the bench for a situation like this!
July 6, 2007 at 8:30 am
1. According to what we’ve heard he will be moving from Arizona in mid-summer to Fort Wayne…he’s done well but a few more innings would be nice
July 6, 2007 at 8:35 am
4: Thanks for the info. I agree that he should probably get between 20 and 30 innings before moving up, but I’d like to see him make some movement this year. Maybe if he can get to about 18 innings by the end of July, they’ll ship him off.
July 6, 2007 at 9:00 am
P-Mac has not played in the last 3 games in portland is he hurt?
July 6, 2007 at 9:02 am
They also promoted Baxter from LE to PDX, did they not want to move vinable up?
July 6, 2007 at 9:03 am
n/m P-mac is on the 7 day DL
July 6, 2007 at 9:14 am
re 7, they’ll often promote a “non-prospect” to fill an organizational hole b/c they’re not as worried about stunting development due to a lack of at-bats or struggles…
July 6, 2007 at 9:16 am
7. Baxter is more what is referred to as an “organizational player” meaning that he has little chance of making the majors but still is a good player to fill out minor league rosters.
Venable is doing what the Padres thought he would before the season, making decent contact - and it is a big jump from the Midwest to the Texas League - but not hitting with much power. On the plus side he has played more in right and center field and his arm has improved from last year.
The team expects Venable to start hitting with more power late in the year or early next year in Portland.
Sorry, that was a long winded way of writing they are more concerned about Venable’s development than potentially screwing him up by promoting him to AAA.
July 6, 2007 at 9:17 am
9. Peter beat me to that one…:)
July 6, 2007 at 9:18 am
is Venable still a top prospect in the orginization? I really never saw him making it past AAA.
July 6, 2007 at 9:29 am
12. Yeah I would say he is. You’re going to read other places about how he doesn’t hit with enough power to be considered a prospect, which right now is true - but I’m not sure it will hold in the future.
He’s a very good athlete who just hasn’t played a whole lot of baseball, he only had 317 ABs in his whole college career at Princeton, and last year was the first which he concentrated soley on baseball.
When I talked to him in San Antonio earlier this year he’s aware that he needs to hit for more power and its really just a question of him getting more comfortable recognizing pitches and getting his swing mechanics more in line.
Right now, he’s about where the Padres thought he would be and everyone we talk to over there is very high on him.
July 6, 2007 at 9:30 am
Re: 13 thanks John
July 6, 2007 at 10:55 am
Little Tony back up with the big club.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/transactions
July 6, 2007 at 11:20 am
New ESPN rankings are out. Pads are 3rd. Dodgers are 8th, and D-Backs are 14th (ouch).
July 6, 2007 at 11:23 am
Sorry, link would have helped.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/powerranking
July 6, 2007 at 11:51 am
re #12 (and an addendum to #13):
Venable is still a prospect, but he’s probably not as much of a “top” prospect as he was considered a year ago. The Padres have better depth as guys from 2006 have developed, and the 2007 draft was so much better than 2004 and previous drafts (i.e. Latos & Schmidt are both going to be top 5 guys, Antonelli, Freese, Leblanc, and Huffman - in no particular order - have all excelled… Venable was top 5 on my list last year, he’ll be top 12 or so this year).
July 6, 2007 at 12:16 pm
18: There is no question that Venable is the best athlete out of the bunch, its whether or not he can turn into a baseball player that will make or break it. I loved watching him play during spring training and I think if he can get his skills up he fits Petco park better than almost ay outfielder in our organization.
July 6, 2007 at 12:36 pm
There is no question that Venable is the best athlete out of the bunch - better than Antonelli? I don’t think so… Venable’s not faster…
July 6, 2007 at 12:44 pm
A BP article today said this …
Padres pitchers held opponents to just .257/.316/.366 for the month of June, including a .242/.296/.357 road line.
… wow, if only Petco were a pitcher’s park!
Also, I’m trying to stir conversation amongst any of us going to Cooperstown in a coupla weeks …
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....-2007.html
… or even if you’re familiar enough with NY to help out with driving tips and/or “tourist” tips.
July 6, 2007 at 12:45 pm
What about Chase Headley? He’s gotta be up there #1 or 2 with the year he’s having.. How far will Cedric Hunter fall?
July 6, 2007 at 12:47 pm
21. Venable has made pretty good strides this season, the jump to AA is brutal. So far he’s shown an ability to make contact and improved defensively, its just a question if he can push the slugging percentage up to at least around the mid-400’s. I don’t know where I would have him on my rankings, but then again the season isn’t over yet.
As a left-handed hitter he’s a good hitter for PETCO because he uses the whole field, but the ideal corner OF type may be a right-handed hitter who can yank the ball down the line - such as Freese, Huffman, Cooper or Blanks.
In my opinion Blanks will be the biggest question, both figuratively and literally, for the Padres going into the off-season if he continues his current path. He isn’t going to play 1b with AGon there and he’s too talented right now just for trade bait. I think, despite how much in the past the Padres have said they weren’t going to do it, have to give him a shot in LF. He’s athletic enough and he easily has the most raw power potential of anyone in the organization.
July 6, 2007 at 12:51 pm
22. If the season ended today, I agree Chase Headley would be the number one prospect.
Hunter is playing in a much tougher league than last year and still doing ok when you consider his age compared to the rest of the players. Remember its his first full year and you should see significant improvement in his stats when he is at LE next year.
Take a look at Blanks stats in FW and compare them to what he is doing now. My assumption is you will see a similiar jump from Hunter next year.
July 6, 2007 at 12:55 pm
Also, can we consider Vince Sinisi a prospect in AAA? (.310/.356/.475). I think we got him for Freddy Guzman, he was a 2nd round pick shortly after Gwynn Jr. and Gorzlanny. I’d guess he’s no more than a 4th outfielder..
July 6, 2007 at 12:56 pm
21: GY had a thread about this about two weeks ago in which I posted my comprehensive travel plans. If I can find it, I’ll post a link to it here and in the World Tour thread you linked above.
July 6, 2007 at 12:58 pm
26: As promised: http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....l#comments
We bought my dad a HOF sustaining membership for Xmas so we all get in for free and get a 10% discount on merch, whch is good since we’ll probably be spending a bunch.
July 6, 2007 at 1:07 pm
25. Sinisi has definitely had a nice year, especially when you consider what he had hitting around him in Portland - not much.
He’s a pretty versatile player - can play all three OF positions and 1b. However, I think the other guys mentioned project as having a little more power - which is what you are looking for at the corners.
Still a very nice season by Sinisi coming back from a major injury.
July 6, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Absolutely…
I agree, Chase is number 1. However, after that, there are groups… And within these groups there is a lot of room for discussion but very little varience from one group to another…
#1 Chase Headley
2-3 Latos & Schmidt
4-7 Antonelli, Carrillo, Huffman, & Hunter
8-14 Blanks, Carvajal, Freese, Hundley, Kulbacki, Leblanc, & Venable
(players listed alphabetically w/in groups)
July 6, 2007 at 1:21 pm
Re: 29 whay no Cooper Brannan?
J/K
July 6, 2007 at 1:25 pm
6: P-Mac texted me early this week to say he won’t be back until August.
July 6, 2007 at 1:27 pm
Wow pretty bad strain?
July 6, 2007 at 1:46 pm
When is Nick Schmidt going to be assigned to Eugene? Or would they send him right to low A ball?
July 6, 2007 at 1:52 pm
I think Schmidt is pitching tonight, but I’m not certain…
I forgot Drew Miller & Jeremy McBryde… They might be in with that last group as well…
July 6, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Schmidt will apparently start in low A Fort Wayne and will throw about 50 innings the rest of the year.
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
July 6, 2007 at 2:00 pm
29 & 34
I guess we’re coming along when Freese is in the 8-14 range. I’m not disagreeing with you, just glad to see the depth.
Thanks for the info on Schmidt. I caught the 2nd-4th innings of the Eugene radio broadcast on MiLB and didn’t hear that.
I also see that Shawn Estes is throwing again in the AZL. Do we have him for more than just this year? Likely not.
July 6, 2007 at 2:05 pm
“I guess we’re coming along when Freese is in the 8-14 range.”
Exactly! - It’s a good time to be Padres fan.
July 6, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Re: 37 no Ayala?
July 6, 2007 at 2:11 pm
35…Thanks for the link!
July 6, 2007 at 2:28 pm
27 … thanks, I’ve got that book marked now! Looks like we’ll have a half-dozen-or-so DS’ers … cool!
I wonder how early we should get to Cooperstown on induction Sunday? The one advantage we’ll have on folks coming up from Baltimore is being able to get there a bit earlier …
July 6, 2007 at 3:11 pm
40: I’m seriously lobbying my family to leave as early as possible. I’m talking sometime between 2 and 4 a.m. As long as we’re to Cooperstown by 6 a.m., I think we should be ok. The actual ceremony is around 1 if I’m not mistaken.
July 6, 2007 at 3:38 pm
Ayala would probably be in the next group after that… or he might be able to sneak into the tail end of that group. But keep in mind, it’s not like being 15-20 in the Padres is chopped liver like it used to be… I didn’t include Matt Bush, there’s Ayala, Breit is struggling but still has a nice arm, there’s other just-drafted players (Cumberland, Sogard, Colon if he signs), Ekstrom, Luis Durango, Danny Payne, Jered Wells (the reliever)… This system has a lot of guys all throughout the top 25 that are easy to see in the big leagues down the road.
Disclaimer: I DID NOT say that each of the top 25 will make the big leagues, but that it doesn’t take HUGE dose of imagination to see them get there…
July 6, 2007 at 3:42 pm
I’ve been to Cooperstown before, but that was 5-6 years ago and in the middle of the week in September…..very, very empty. My better half and I are driving in from Albany the morning of….anybody been to induction weekend before?
What time do we need to arrive in order to get a decent seat?
July 6, 2007 at 3:44 pm
Also, is it just me or has Matt Bush become one of the best storylines the Padres have had in a long time. There was a time(think the past 2 years) where I haven’t cared due to attitude and general on field suckyness, but he’s an easy guy to really root for these days.
July 6, 2007 at 3:44 pm
Putting on my rose-colored glasses and grabbing my 1/2 full tumbler, I was thinking about how we’ve never had more than a couple of guys hot at any one time this year, yet we’ve managed to hang onto 1st place in the division, just short of the best record in the NL.
I guess one advantage of having a bunch of streaky hitters is that the likelihood of all of them being cold or hot at one time is unlikely. Therefore, we’re resigned to having a couple of guys hitting and a couple of guys either going into a slump or trying to hit their way out of one. We’ve seen Cammy and Kouz struggle, Adrian’s struggling now, Khalil alternates between struggling or dazzling several times a month and NOG and Crudge started strong then cooled off.
We just need 3 or 4 guys hot at the same time and our pitching to remain the same and we can put some distance in this division race.
July 6, 2007 at 3:58 pm
I think having Giles, Bradley and Barrett/Bard all posting fairly consistent .800+OPS is going to be very helpful.
July 6, 2007 at 4:09 pm
43 … re: decent seat … unless you’ve paid $500 to be a “presidential member” of the HOF, the only “seat” you’ll have is the one you bring. What is available for us free-loaders is space on a grassy field … so it’s BYO for a chair or a blanket …
July 6, 2007 at 4:12 pm
I heard today that Adrian has gone 4 for his last 47 (or something like that)…
Looking at his splits:
June: .231/.316/.404
July: .100/.100/.100
(26 hits in 124 AB between the two months)
YET, the team went 17-14 in that time…
The sky is not falling. What will we do when he gets back to be the Adrian we all fell in love with?
July 6, 2007 at 4:22 pm
48: Pee ourselves with glee. I think that OG, Bradley, Barrett (get Bard fewer starts please), and a well-functioning Adrian should allow us to begin to put some distance between us and others in the division.
And could we please let the Dodgers get Adam Dunn? I like nothing better than the prospect of a Dunn/Pierre/Gonzales outfield. Just elevate a pitch and run!
July 6, 2007 at 11:37 pm
49: Their outfield already sucks. Hopefully they don’t acquire Dunn unless it’s at the expense of some top, top prospects.