Friday Links (13 Jul 07)
Fri, Jul 13, 2007
by Geoff Young
Where were we? Ah, yes, talking about baseball. Okay, then…
- Q&A with Khalil Greene (San Diego Union-Tribune, via Phantom in the comments). Love this quote:
I want to be as good as I can be. To me, a good play in practice is just as important as in the game because you should strive to do it right all the time. Satisfaction is in giving it your best, no matter the circumstance. It doesn’t make any difference if five people are watching you or 50,000.
His response to a question about how others perceive him is great, too: “How someone views me has more to do with them than me, or anyone…. Forming opinions of someone, anyone, off a small sample is not healthy or unifying.” Funny, I don’t remember Crash Davis mentioning that particular cliche.
- Wells handed seven-game suspension (San Diego Union-Tribune). David Wells has been suspended for basically showing up plate umpire Ed Hickox last Saturday. Of course, if it happened to Wells, it must be someone else’s fault:
They are changing the game of baseball. We should all put on skirts and throw underhand. If they’re going to do that, call it softball. A seven-game suspension is absolutely crazy. I don’t get it. I doubt I ever will.
I doubt he ever will, either.
- Backin’ Black — New manager’s approach a hit so far with players (North County Times). The players like Bud Black, they really do. Actually, except for a few annoyances here and there, so do I.
- Padres midterm report (Padres.com). Corey Brock likes the Pads’ chances for a third straight NL West title.
- Bush Slides To Mound With Ease (Baseball America, via KRS1 in the comments). Nice article on Matt Bush. The Dr. Seuss subplot seems a little out of place, but once you get past that, there are some good quotes here from Bush’s pitching coach, Dave Rajsich, including this gem: “He throws a lot better than I anticipated . . . His command is much better and his velocity is a little more than I expected. (He’s) much more polished than I was expecting.” We remain cautiously optimistic.
- Operations ‘whiz’ DePodesta fits in fine with Padres (San Diego Union-Tribune). Nice little piece on Paul DePodesta, who among other things, tosses this nugget:
Most people look at Moneyball and say it’s all about on-base percentage and walks. I look at Moneyball as the never-ending quest for new ideas. The whole idea is to try and get to the next horizon.
Bullseye. For the record, I no longer care whether most folks “get” the whole Moneyball thing as long as the Padres front office remains hip to the jive.
- NL West: Midseason Grades (SI.com, via Phantom in the comments). Jon Weisman gives the Padres an A-minus, which seems about right to me.
- Peavy worth his weight in gold — and likely a lot more (San Diego Union-Tribune, via Ben B in the comments). You know the team is doing well when we start wringing our hands over what Jake Peavy might do after the 2009 season. I’m all for thinking ahead, but — what is that expression I want? Right, keep it real.
- Randolph’s Sling Is No Match for Martin’s Cast (New York Times, via Nick G in the comments). An eyewitness to the event recounts the September 1985 fight between ex-Padre Ed Whitson and former Yankees skipper Billy Martin. Bonus points for working the word “fracas” into the story.
And what is going on in the world of Padres prospects? Hey, I just happen to know someone who knows. Sweet…
by Peter Friberg
I will not see Matt Antonelli and Chad Huffman at Lake Elsinore when I go the game Friday night. They were both promoted to San Antonio.
Monday, July 9, 2007
AAA
No games scheduled…
AA
Chase Headley: 5 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2B - 3 2-out RBI
Will Venable: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 1 RBI
Manny Ayala: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 4 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 5 RBI; HR, BB, SF
Kyle Blanks: 5 AB, 3 R, 4 H, 3 RBI; 2 HR, SB
Yordany Ramirez: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 2 RBI; 2B, SB
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 3 AB, 1 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB, SO
Rayner Contreras: 5 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; SO
Short Season-A
No significant performances…
Rookie
Yefri Carvajal: 4 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 3 SO
Keoni Ruth: 4 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; SO - first pro strikeout
Angel Mercada: 4 AB,1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2 2B, SO
Commentary:
Blanks put on a show Monday night; power and speed from the 270-lb 20-year-old. Last year in Fort Wayne, Kyle was limited to 308 at-bats, and he batted .292/.382/.455 with 20 doubles, 10 home runs and a 36/79 BB/SO ratio. This season, Kyle has amassed 309 at-bats so far and is now hitting .327/.406/.589. He has exceeded last year’s double total (22) and hit seven more homers (17). He also has four triples (he went without a triple in 2006), giving him 43 extra-base hits (out of 101 total hits) to go with a 30/67 BB/SO ratio.
Tuesday, July 10, 2007
AAA, AA, High-A, Low-A, Short Season-A
No games scheduled…
Rookie
Keoni Ruth: 5 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 0 RBI; 2B
Yefri Carvajal: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2B, BB
Commentary:
Ruth was obviously embarrassed by his strikeout on Monday and wanted to prove something… …Or maybe it was just a good game.
Last year I called this the Cedric Hunter report. I’m beginning to think we need to call this the Yefri Carvajal report. He does something significant virtually every game.
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
Happy Anniversary, honey! 9 years!
AAA
AAA All Star Game - nothing significant…
AA
Nick Hundley: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 2B, 2 BB, 2 SO
Brett Bonvechio: 3 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 5 RBI; 2 2B, 3 BB
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 3 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB, CS
Chad Huffman: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2B, BB
David Freese: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 1 RBI
Colt Morton: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 2 2B
Low-A
No game scheduled…
Short Season-A
Eric Sogard: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; BB
Mitch Canham: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 2 RBI; BB
Danny Payne: 2 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; BB, 2 SO, SB, S
Cory Luebke: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
Robert Woodard: 2.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR
Rookie
Dylan Axelrod: 1.0 IP, 5 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR - that hurt
Commentary:
I do not think Bonvechio is a significant prospect, but wow, what a game!
When Colt Morton was drafted scouts said he had major-league defensive ability already. However, going into 2006 Colt’s career minor-league numbers are .241/340/.459 with 352 strikeouts in 1179 at-bats… Because of the high whiff rate, I have a hard time thinking of Colt as a prospect. But if that bat progresses (not likely; he’s already 25) he could be an interesting catching option in a couple years.
[Ed note: I have a soft spot for Bonvechio and Morton. The former caught my eye in Yuma a few years ago, while the latter has tremendous home-run power and also is featured in one of my favorite baseball books, The Last Best League.]
Danny Payne is interesting. Good? I don’t know. Interesting? Ab-so-freakin’-lutely. In 19 games, Danny has:
- 20 strikeouts
- 25 walks
- A .449 on-base percentage
- A .222 batting average and .270 slugging percentage
- 8 steals in 8 attempts
- 2 extra-base hits (1 double and 1 triple)
What do you make of that? Seriously, what?
Thursday, July 12, 2007
AAA
Mike Baxter: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 4 RBI; 2B, SO, SB
AA
Matt Antonelli: 3 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; BB, SO - AA debut
Chad Huffman: 3 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI - AA debut
Wade LeBlanc: 3.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO, 1 HR
High-A
Matt Buschmann: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 SO, 0 HR
Low-A
No game scheduled…
Short Season-A
Luis Durango: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 3B, BB
Eric Sogard: 4 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B, BB, SO, SB
Mat Latos: 3.0 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 1 HR
Rookie
Jeudy Valdez: 5 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 1 RBI; HR, BB, 2 SO
Yefri Carvajal: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB, 2 SB - .379/.462/.561
Commentary:
It probably doesn’t speak highly of Baxter that he was called up from High-A to AAA when he wasn’t a full-time starter in Lake Elsinore… However, that’s a nice game from the athletic New Yorker.
[Ed note: Hey, at least he didn't hit Kevin Towers in the face with a foul ball.]
Thanks, Peter. The Padres are in Phoenix for the weekend. First pitch in Friday night’s opener is 6:40 p.m. PT. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before then. Happy Friday, folks, and go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
July 13, 2007 at 8:24 am
I’ll keep it baseball-related today, I promise.
On the subject of the SI.com article I posted yesterday that lists Kevin Towers as our most important piece for the second half, I was curious to see what everyone else thought.
I personally think that our most important piece for the second half is Adrian Gonzalez. If he has the second half he had last year, this team will win the West again. However, if he continues to struggle, it’s going to be a long tough fight.
I also thought I would pose the question of what this team’s biggest need right now is. I personally think a fifth starter is the most important thing we could acquire right now (followed closely by a solid utility IF *cough*Mark Loretta*cough*) since we really don’t have space for a “power bat.” Thinking logically, if we acquire Dunn or Griffey, where are you gonna play them?
July 13, 2007 at 8:28 am
How many years is NOG’s contract? If Antonelli continues to progress would they think about getting him to the big club some time next year or is 2009 inevitable?
July 13, 2007 at 8:32 am
He has a one-year contract with a team option for 2008.
July 13, 2007 at 8:50 am
Yeah I would honestly go with Milton Bradley as our most important piece for the rest of the season. He is a total wild card and can effect our team greatly in a bunch of different ways. If he hits to his potential (and everyone else keeps doing what they are doing) we could be a world series team. If he doesn’t hit then we are stuck where we are now unless someone steps up. The thing I worry about most is this, What if he tears it up for the next few weeks and then gets hurt after the trade deadline? The front office isn’t compelled to make any more significant moves because he is playing well and then hurts himself leaving us to go ahead with Branya-Crudge-achica. I hate to think Milton Bradley is the most important piece to the rest of our season but I really think he is. I of course am assuming Adrian gets he ass in gear and gets back to normal.
To the Dunn-Griffey question… Not that I think the front office would ever be cool with an $11 million player riding the pine but if Griffey or Dunn came over here Giles is the odd man out. Maybe Giles would platoon and be the backup plan but since both of those guys are lefties I don’t know. That would be a nice group of 4 outfielders though. At least with Griffey he can play center if we needed him for a few games and we would have him under contract for a couple of years. With Dunn… he’s stuck to left or 1st and he’s out at the end of the year.
July 13, 2007 at 9:01 am
I have a feeling if they get a Dunn or Griffy Bradley will be riding the pine.
The pads need to try and get Loretta, if nog does not pull out of this slump they are in real trouble, their lineup is not good enough to have that big of a hole in it.
July 13, 2007 at 9:07 am
This Wells suspension strikes me as totally unreasonable.
Lets look at a few suspensions recently:
Defend yourself when somebody else throws a first punch at you: 5 games. (Chris Young)
Start a bench-clearing fight by throwing the first punch: 5 games. (Derek Lee)
Argue with umpire: 7 games. (Boomer)
How does that make sense? Josh Bard bumped into the umpire and got less, Pudge bumped into the umpire yesterday and will get less than 7 games.
Can somebody explain to me what exactly Boomer did that warrants harsher punishment then walking up to a guy and swinging at his head, instigating a benches clearing brawl?
July 13, 2007 at 9:07 am
How old is Yefri Carvajal? Then, how old is he really?
July 13, 2007 at 9:14 am
7.
Well if he turn out to be 47 Lynchmob would be exstatic!
July 13, 2007 at 9:16 am
You cant compare starting pitcher suspensions to every day players, what good is it to give wells under 5 games he wont miss a start, the 7 games is to make sure that he misses his turn in the rotation.
July 13, 2007 at 9:23 am
In compiling this morning’s list, I missed a great article on Jake Peavy over at Baseball Analysts:
http://baseballanalysts.com/ar.....essure.php
July 13, 2007 at 9:41 am
Osbug at Gaslamp Ball set up a Cafepress store with a wonderfully geeky Khalil shirt:
http://www.cafepress.com/khalilos
Pepe Negro’s shortcomings have been duly noted here but overall I think he’s been an excellent manager. Just look at all the stupid things we’ve seen from other managers this year: bunting with Adrian Beltre, leaving Pujols on the bench with the All Star game on the line, etc. The worst we can come up with for Black is he leaves his veteran starters in too long and he doesn’t get enough work out of the back end of his bullpen. I heard The Colonel say he thinks Black might be the smartes man to ever manage a ball club. That might be over the top but there’s no doubt he’s highly intelligent and has great people skills.
July 13, 2007 at 9:48 am
That shirt is so freaking good!!!
July 13, 2007 at 9:49 am
9 -
I suppose thats a valid argument, but why not just do the standard 5 game suspension?
The perceived disparity between the suspensions still stands, especially for the casual baseball fan. 7 games makes it sound like Boomer took his pants off on the mound or something.
July 13, 2007 at 9:51 am
#11: And in the shameless but opportunistic segue department, Ducksnorts T-shirts are also available:
http://www.cafepress.com/ducksnorts
July 13, 2007 at 10:15 am
I wonder if Brock penned his Germano bit, oh say, about two months ago, when Germano was still fooling NL hitters, as well as Padres fans, into thinking he was a good pitcher?
July 13, 2007 at 10:35 am
I think we’ve swung back too far the other way on Germano. He’s not as bad as his most recent start and he’s not nearly as good as his first few. His FIP (fielding independent pitching) is 4.36 (according to the hardball times), which is fine for a fifth starter. I feel comfortable with him in that role.
July 13, 2007 at 10:41 am
16.
I think his recent starts might be more of an indication of what he really is. He isn’t new anymore and now that there is a book on what he throws big leaguers are exposing him. I don’t think he is a long term option as a starter.
July 13, 2007 at 10:46 am
Today in the UT in five keys for the second half, they kind of casually slip in that Jake isn’t pitching until Sunday because of pain in his bicep. Yikes.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....tshed.html
July 13, 2007 at 10:47 am
A FIP of 4.36 would be fine for a fifth starter if it hadn’t resulted from a plummet from an uncharacteristically low FIP and BABIP that Germano amassed over his first seven or so starts this year. His trend lines are awful and unfortunately consistent with how he pitched during his last major league tryout with the Padres. I think it is reasonable to expect him to be pounded for a 5+ ERA the second or third go round, unless he makes some sort of major adjustment.
July 13, 2007 at 10:48 am
4: Griffey can’t play the CF anymore. Not only is his wheels slow now, his gun is gone too. The Maddux CG that I saw, Griffey short threw two balls from the RF into the infield on one bounce.
I do agree with your assessment of Jenga, though. Let’s hope the Padres’ training staff will do a great job the rest of the year with him. Remember Doc was supposed to be fragile too and he gave the Padres his career years.
11: Yup, Pepe’s Kryptonite seems to be older veteran pitchers and letting El Hombre play every game. Other than that, I’ve been happy with him.
July 13, 2007 at 10:52 am
I think Germano will be ok as a 5th starter. At least he throws strikes and generally keeps the team in the game. I’d like to see us pick up another #5 as injury insurance. Other than Hensley we haven’t had any starters go on the DL this year; we’re bound to get hit with some kind of injury in the 2nd half.
Jason Jennings of the Astros seems like a good fit: impending free agent, good K/BB ratio, knows the division. Actually he might be a good fit for 2008 too.
July 13, 2007 at 10:55 am
18: My new nickname for Jake: Roseanne Roseannadanna - because with him “It’s always something”
July 13, 2007 at 10:59 am
21.
There is always one of my personel favorites… The D-TRAIN!!! Haha I know it would never happen and it’s not like he’s been great this year but I would love a core rotation of Peavy, Young and Willis. I have always been in love with the idea of having a top of the rotation left hander as oppsed to a bottom of the rotation pain in the ass like David Wells! Oh well I can dream can’t I?
July 13, 2007 at 11:16 am
Over his last four starts, Germano has a 6.75 ERA. He still has a 2-1 K/BB ratio over that time, though. I think I remember him getting a decent number of ground balls in those games (not completely sure). The problem was a lot of the balls in the air went out, but HR/flyball rate is mostly not a pitcher skill and will mostly even out over the course of the season. As long as he keeps getting groundballs, his home run rate shouldn’t be too disastrous. So those are my reasons for optimism (optimism being a ~4.5 ERA for Germano over the second half).
July 13, 2007 at 11:19 am
18 … yikes, this is a *major* red flag … and I’ve been feeling for a while that he hasn’t been 100% healthy … so … WHY was he allowed to pitch in the All-Star game???? I’m not happy!
8 … re: Yefri … he’d have to be 49
seriously, this says he is 18 years old …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....pid=503577
… and I’m inclinced to believe it … the post-9/11 crackdown seems to have cut back on the fraudulent docs …
July 13, 2007 at 11:21 am
Since I haven’t been reading this for nine years, I’ll assume that it wasn’t OUR anniversary.
Any idea why LeBlanc was held to three innings? The game situation didn’t seem to dictate it, and I haven’t heard anything about “tightness” or “stiffness”.
July 13, 2007 at 11:23 am
25: Knowing Jake, if he was hurting he probably didn’t want to tell anyone. It could just be that the pain didn’t crop up until after the AS game. I say err on the side of caution and skip his next start.
July 13, 2007 at 11:27 am
Re: 26 Ducksnorts was started in 97 so its 9-10 years old but, I dont think Peter’s and G.Y’s friendship is to the point where they are calling eachother Honey yet (but who knows I could be wrong), so i think he was talking to his wife.
Happy anniversay Peter!
July 13, 2007 at 11:32 am
What is the collective opinion about going to a four man rotation in a situation like ours (before the bicep). We don’t need for Jake (who seems to throw too many pitches per inning anyway) or Chris to go into the 8th inning with our bullpen. If we could get six innings out of our top four starters, I would think we could benefit greatly from our fairly deep bullpen.
It would mean that Cameron would likely have to pitch more often in important situations, but…
I really don’t think it’s a possibility now with even a hint of an injury issue, but I’d be interested to read your comments. It’d sure be nice to see Peavy and Young four more starts each the rest of the way.
July 13, 2007 at 11:43 am
Re: #13- I agree that a 7 game suspension is outrageous for Boomer. If the letter from Bob Watson is correct in the description of the incident, then Mr. Watson got it wrong. I watched it live and thought Boomer was wrong, BUT I did not see what was quoted in the UT article as what the letter stated. I did like the quote from Boomer about “putting on skirts”. Classic!
July 13, 2007 at 11:47 am
#18: To clarify, Peavy originally was scheduled to start this Sunday, but he’s been pushed back to Tuesday. Among other things, this puts him between Wells and Maddux in the rotation, which I love.
July 13, 2007 at 11:58 am
LOL!!! (literally)
re 26: rain delay
re 28: yes, my wife and I celebrated 9 years on Wednesday… Geoff & I definitely friends, but I will not be calling him “honey”
July 13, 2007 at 12:14 pm
31: Ah, thanks for the clarification. Too bad we’ll miss out on a Webb-Peavy duel on Sunday, then.
July 13, 2007 at 12:18 pm
Great ESPN article on the best division in baseball: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2932181
Lots of quotes from Towers about the nature of the division with respect to pitching, money, and the need for a WS win.
July 13, 2007 at 12:22 pm
Also, new Power Rankings for the week from ESPN: http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/powerranking
Pads are at 4th, the highest-ranked NL team. The D-Backs have slid all the way to 16th.
July 13, 2007 at 1:08 pm
Peavy’s possible injury, and his eventual free agent status, is another reason we have to draft more pitchers with upside instead of college polish. A rotation full of #3 and #5 starters gets you nowhere. Just due to attrition you have to draft a lot of guys with #1 - #2 potential to even get one of them to the majors.
I thought the screwy strike zone for the Padres might, on occasion, be a reaction from the umpires to Sandy Alderson. He was heavily involved in the last dispute with their union and was the man who told them to “hunt for strikes.” Okay, Mr. Alderson, I’ll hunt for a strike 8 inches off the plate, costing you a chance to win the game.
Germano: Not many pitchers can survive with fewer than 5 Ks per 9. We’d be incredibly lucky to have two of our starters do it. He’s better insurance than Mike Thompson, and he can always turn in a good game if the balls get hit right at people, but it would be great to upgrade the rotation. Jason Jennings, or take a risk on Rich Harden if Beane is selling. You’d have to let Harden rest for a while, but huge upside.
July 13, 2007 at 1:11 pm
One more plug for the free BP this week … here’s a link with a nice Heath Bell mention …
Protrade Market Movers
The Ten Highest-Rising Players at the Break
by Jeff Ma
The ten players whose value has increased the most are a mixed bag of low expectations, surprises, and canny risks.
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6452
July 13, 2007 at 2:15 pm
I love the idea of getting Harden. I don’t think Beane is dumb enough to sell low on him, and Oakland kind of needs him for the future, but a playoff rotation of Peavy-Young-Harden is absolutely insane. What an awesome fantasy.
July 13, 2007 at 2:22 pm
Fluff piece but the Padres is in it:
http://tinyurl.com/yt8884
The Padres should look into getting Chris Burke from the Astros. They seem down on him and have Loretta play more than Burke. This would be a good insurance in case NOG gets stuck in this funk, and it’ll be an affordable bridge to Antonelli. Plus, he’s way better than Silent L.
July 13, 2007 at 2:51 pm
39 … I’m a *huge* Chris Burke fan … he’s been very disappointing this season … which seems to be a “buy low” opportunity … and, remember, the Padres are the *king* of buy low
July 13, 2007 at 3:19 pm
RE “Operation Whiz” In $Ball, I remember most PD’s OBP%=3xSLG% model sited on page 128. From what I’ve read since,the next horizon is a much lower ratio, especially on low scoring teams.
July 13, 2007 at 3:22 pm
BTW: Giants GM Sabean agrees to two-year extension.
Woohoo, good for the Padres.
July 13, 2007 at 3:53 pm
The beauty of the Bradley acquisition as I see it is that if he is able to perform like last year at 5.80 RC/27w/107 air he will create 10 more runs than Cruz and Boca would at 4.23 (SD is 100 air) using 220 outs. Adding Dunn at 6.53 RC/27w/113 air in 2007 would only add 13 runs over Cruz and Boca. (#’s via BB Prospectus).Still there needs to be some adj for the Padres’ low OB%, which would favor additional SLG over OB%?
July 13, 2007 at 4:40 pm
Woo-hoo … just got my Gwynn jersey for wearing during HOF induction …
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISA.....1&rd=1
… it’s a bit big for me (size 60, i’m “just” a 42) … but I’m hoping I fit right in with the new “Fat” Tony
July 13, 2007 at 4:42 pm
36: Are college pitchers never #1 or #2 guys (Verlander, CY, Weaver…)? Just curious
43: What did you just say?
The way I see it Bradley will be a perfect #2 hitter. You have him and Giles lead off the game and thats a decent amount of speed on the bases for our “power” hitters. I really hope Vuddy messed with the batting order, for a team that needs to manufacture runs it can be a bit more important.
July 13, 2007 at 4:44 pm
44: Couldnt find any your size? Your gonna look gangta in that thing haha thats rad
July 13, 2007 at 5:10 pm
44: You mean that Simpsons character, Fat Tony?
That’s awesome, LM.
July 13, 2007 at 5:14 pm
45.If Bradley is healthy enough to play as well as last year, the average numbers suggest that having him is as good as having Dunn because Dunn plays in such hitter friendly parks. eg.His home power splits far exceed away. The difference is that Bradley contributes OB% and Dunn SLG. My question is that in low scoring games with a low OB% already, one guy hitting HR’s would seem to be a better addition than one guy getting on base more often. I havent quantified that, but I see that the games ahead feature better pitching against the Padres. BTW, I think your saying Bradley is more#2 type than #4 is the essence of the question.
July 13, 2007 at 5:15 pm
45.
I thinks it’s pretty obvious what TW was talking about. He was talking about high upside types which for where we have been drafting lately will tend to come from high school. If you don’t want to spend the money for top free agents then you have to take risks in the draft if you hope to net a dynamic #1 type starter. Unless you are drafting in the first 1-10 picks (which hopefully we will never have again) you probably don’t have much of a shot at the high upside college players. CY has turned into a great pitcher but you also have to keep in mind that this is his 3rd year in the majors and his 4th franchise since being drafted. It’s not as if he was everyone’s top can’t miss prospect (lucky for us) coming out of college.
July 13, 2007 at 5:31 pm
45: Of course college pitchers can be front-of-the-rotation starters. A lot of #1 and #2 starters did go to college. Overwhelmingly, we’re not drafting guys like that.
Most of the collegiates we’ve drafted over the last several years have been pitchability types. Fringe stuff, maybe average stuff or a tick above, good command. There’s a place for that, but there’s a much bigger need for guys with great stuff. Simple supply and demand. The biggest group in the talent pool are guys who are just ok, just average. We spend too much time and money fishing in that part of the pool. Concentrate more on the monsters. If you need yet another polished RHP who throws 90mph, dip your net in the water on the way back to shore. You might get two of ‘em.
49: Yeah, everybody wants the pitcher with great stuff who has already shown it for years in college. Lincecum “fell” to 10. If we’re consistently in the 18-30 range, we’ve got to take chances to get a big upside. Not with every pick, not gambling wildly, but we have spent a lot of money on kids whose upside is a 5th starter and whose most likely major league role is middle reliever. It may seem budget-conscious to “only” spend 800,000 on Ramos, 500,000 on Luebke, etc., but you’re not buying much for that money.
July 13, 2007 at 5:32 pm
49: My point exactly with CY. He has turned into a great #2 starter and he was a “polished college player” so I guess I am just saying there is a chance the pitchers we have been drafting can develop into #1 or #2 guys. I like our guy this year.
July 13, 2007 at 5:36 pm
50: I think a big reason fir this is that our drafts have been SOOOO bad that they are trying to build a decent farm system without too many risks for flops. I totally agree we need to take higher upside players, but i think because our pitching is strong right now they are trying to build a good base.
July 13, 2007 at 5:40 pm
50: Let me add that Carrillo was a great college pick. Very good stuff and polished, other teams worried about his size (while Roy Oswalt shuts them out time and again). Yes, he blew out his elbow, and the Padres bear at least some responsibility for that (way too many innings his rookie year), but a lot of 6′4″ 230 pound pitchers have TJ scars too. Schmidt, LeBlanc, good combination of stuff and polish, no problems there.
However, if you’re going to buy government bonds with those very early picks, STOP drafting the Andy Underwoods and Josh Geers in the middle rounds. When your organization is loaded with finesse types, why even bother spending 500,000 on another one?
Oh, and Cesar Ramos got 950K. So even less cheap.
July 13, 2007 at 5:50 pm
A look back at the free-agent signings …
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
… and I completely agree with this sentiment: “There were mistakes. Lots of them. There were successes. Though not nearly as many.”
These are lists that glad are devoid of Padres … ie. I was happy then and am still happy that the Padres passed on the free agent class of 2007 … and I’m still hoping they make either one big trade or a coupla small trades for the stretch run. I’m going along with the folks saying that a “big bat” trade is now optional … I’d rather just upgrade Blum and/or NOG and/or Germano/Wells.
July 13, 2007 at 5:53 pm
52: That’s just not a very smart way to spend money. What’s the payoff for a college pitcher who hits the wall in High A or AA versus a high school kid who fails at Low A? Many times the high-upside HS kid will have more trade value because other teams can still dream about what he might become. Now, sometimes the collegian will be worth more in trade because he can put up good numbers at higher levels, but overall there’s no real benefit in trade value from going one way or the other.
Baseball players have such a long development process, and there’s so much attrition among pitchers, you can’t fritter away time building a mediocre base. If he stays healthy, Peavy will be the best starting pitcher the Padres have ever employed. He could easily leave after 2009. Does anybody see a likely replacement? A lot could change between now and then. We might have a terrible season and be able to draft a great college arm. We might make a blockbuster deal to get one. But ideally you’d have 5 or 6 potential aces now just to get 1 to the majors. Back in 2001 we had Peavy, Baxter, Phillips, and Serrano, all with big upsides. In 2002 Tankersley, Howard, Perez, and Cyr joined the list. Stuff happens.
July 13, 2007 at 5:57 pm
53: Yes, exactly. If thats thier plan, they should be going with higher risk higher upside guys in later picks.
I have never really been a big Carrillo fan. When I saw him pitch I was never that impressed.
54: Yes, we need a gap, or average hitter that will be able to help manufacture runs. A guy that doesnt strike out much. I really like Loretta, but Burke is a good option as well. Burke can play almost anywhere, including CF and hes got decent speed
July 13, 2007 at 5:58 pm
54: I mentioned Jennings and Harden above, and as Ben said, Harden’s probably not even on the table. What about Dave Bush? His peripherals are good, even if his ERA is high. Of course the problem is the Brewers don’t need anything we can give them. Bringing Jennings and Loretta over would be a nice solution.
July 13, 2007 at 6:03 pm
56: Carrillo struck out a hitter per inning his first year without going to short-season or low-A. He lost some velocity and command when his elbow got hurt, but before then he had very good stuff. 4 seamer touched 96-97, heavy 2 seamer than could run 91-92, curveball average to plus.
July 13, 2007 at 6:12 pm
58: I guess i didnt like what I saw, maybe it just looked like injury to me I dont know. He has good stuff, just wasnt as high on him as most.
54: I cant stand Jeff Passan, he flip flops all over the place all year. He is right this time around on most of the contracts, but earlier in the year when all these signings were happening he was saying the complete opposite.
July 14, 2007 at 4:44 am
I wouldn’t mind picking up Burke or Bush.
What about the Indians, do they have anything we’d want for Linebrink? They are in need of pen help badly…