IGD: Padres vs Orioles (19 Jun 07)
Tue, Jun 19, 2007
by Geoff Young
| time: | 7:05 p.m. PT |
| tv: | 4SD |
| sp: | Jake Peavy (8-1, 1.82) vs Steve Trachsel (5-4, 3.94) |
| pre: | Padres.com, SI.com |
You can find stats anywhere. Describing and analyzing those stats adds value. Presenting them in a graphical format that gives a quick overview of key indicators potentially provides further value. The concept of a “dashboard” is stolen from the world of web analytics.
Jake Peavy Dashboard (click image for larger version)
I’m developing this for possible use in next year’s book. I don’t know if it’s worth pursuing, but it might be. What do you think? It’s still in early alpha, so any feedback is appreciated. Be as brutal as you need to be.
Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
June 19, 2007 at 6:20 pm
I’ve honestly gone back and forth trying to decide if these graphs represent Peavy’s performance as a pitcher or a hitter … I guess I’m more into the data than the graphs, in general …
Let’s go JAKE!
June 19, 2007 at 6:26 pm
Leblanc stays on the BA PHS … http://www.baseballamerica.com.....64317.html
June 19, 2007 at 6:33 pm
http://www.nctimes.com/article....._18_07.txt
Padres sign picks … Kulbacki & Payne … and …
The team also announced the signing of its fifth-round selection, right-handed pitcher Jeremy Hefner whom they thought slipped in the draft because of “signability issues.” The 6-foot-4 pitcher from Oral Roberts University has a 93-94 mph fastball and could be a steal.
… which sounds like some spin, if you ask me, but I’m hoping he’ll be ready to pitch on Sunday (in Eugene, with me present
).
June 19, 2007 at 6:37 pm
2: I hope that’s a wrong sentence:
“his walks-to-strikeout ratio has been impressive: 33-to-1 over his last 27 innings” because that’s not very good at all.
June 19, 2007 at 6:37 pm
I like the graphs. I use stuff like that at work every day to plot and trend data. If you choose to go with it, color would be great. Maybe add a section to the next book with some of the nicknames and other blogisms we create in here and their background. And above all, a GLOSSARY! Thanks Geoff. Go Padres.
June 19, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Hey, this is a good-lookin’ lineup …
M. Giles 2b 0.263
J. Cruz Jr. rf 0.264
A. Gonzalez 1b 0.297
M. Cameron cf 0.250
J. Bard c 0.252
R. Branyan lf 0.230
K. Greene ss 0.229
C. Headley 3b 0.100
J. Peavy p 0.226
June 19, 2007 at 6:40 pm
3: Have fun at the game on Sunday. We want reports back.
June 19, 2007 at 6:41 pm
#6: I meant INDEX. Sorry, I’m very tired.
June 19, 2007 at 6:46 pm
Geoff, I love the stats and the graphics. I cant be brutal. It’s not in me.
PS. I have 2 tickets for Friday Nights Game. If anyone is looking to buy tickets. I can’t go.
Field Reserved Section 115, Row 37
June 19, 2007 at 6:49 pm
6: And that lineup by wOBA
1: .329
2: .331
3: .388
4: .324
5: .305
6: .372
7: .307
8: .147
9: .262
.332 is league average and the stat is not park adjusted.
June 19, 2007 at 6:50 pm
#9: You are very nice to offer those tix in here. The Sox games will more than likely sell out. What are you asking for them?
June 19, 2007 at 6:52 pm
10: And because I’m bored that lineup by runs above replacement (PA):
1: 18.13 (290)
2: 13.35 (208)
3: 38.12 (305)
4: 16.15 (286)
5: 6.44 (183)
6: 10.04 (93)
7: 9.98 (264)
8: -1.50 (11)
9: -0.38 (34)
June 19, 2007 at 6:53 pm
11: I believe they have already sold out.
June 19, 2007 at 6:53 pm
Josh Phelps was DFA’d by the Yankees. He’s a solid right handed hitter and would be a good righty bat on the bench. As the roster is presently constructed, there’s not really a spot for him, but if we got rid of that extra 12th pitcher he’d be worth the bench spot.
June 19, 2007 at 6:55 pm
#13: You are correct, Richard.
June 19, 2007 at 6:56 pm
#14: Get rid of Silent L.
June 19, 2007 at 6:58 pm
Turbine Dude,
I have no idea what the asking price is. You can see where the seats are. Normally they are $45 each. I would rather have a Ducksnorts fan go enjoy than someone else.
June 19, 2007 at 7:02 pm
#17: Send me an email at rickschroder@sbcglobal.net (which will probably be rickschroder@cox.net by tommorow night, but send anyway.).
June 19, 2007 at 7:03 pm
#1, 5: Thanks for the feedback, guys. I may throw more versions of these out there in the future.
#9: You are way too kind, SDG.
#14: Phelps is sort of a poor-man’s Craig Wilson. Interesting idea, but I suspect it won’t happen…
June 19, 2007 at 7:08 pm
So, who is the probable starter for CY on Friday?
June 19, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Alright NOG! Nice double to start the game.
June 19, 2007 at 7:20 pm
This is the first time I’ve seen Trachsel pitch, and through three pitchess he has worked quite rapidly.
June 19, 2007 at 7:20 pm
Bunting?!!?!? Against a horrible pitcher, when Cruz can advance the runner with just a pulled ground ball?
June 19, 2007 at 7:21 pm
Hey Geoff - I think the graphs are a great start. I generally prefer not to use pie-charts, as my thinking is that there are other charts (e.g. bar charts) that can be more useful in relating “relative significance” among multiple fields.
June 19, 2007 at 7:23 pm
TD, Just sent you an email.
June 19, 2007 at 7:24 pm
How poorly did the left fielder play that ball that NOG hit?
June 19, 2007 at 7:25 pm
That was low and inside for that last strike call.
June 19, 2007 at 7:25 pm
A G-Slam from Cammy would be nice right now.
June 19, 2007 at 7:26 pm
I think the ump feels sorry for Trachsel.
June 19, 2007 at 7:26 pm
#25: OK, thanks.
June 19, 2007 at 7:27 pm
#26: Everybody was fooled and really thought it was gone.
June 19, 2007 at 7:27 pm
I think that I would also suggest using normal 2-D line charts instead of 3d. It’s just my opinion, but 3d is a bit distracting and also someone limits the usefulness of the graph by making it a bit more complex to display actual data (for instance, you can actually list the column total on the top of each bar, which helps if you might want to multiple variables against two different y-axis(s))
Anyway, I think the stats are good and I’m just being a bit picky stylistically.
June 19, 2007 at 7:28 pm
crap, that was supposed to read “might want to PLOT mutliple variables…”
June 19, 2007 at 7:29 pm
no…
June 19, 2007 at 7:30 pm
Yuck. What is the opposite of clutch?
June 19, 2007 at 7:31 pm
35: Unlucky?
June 19, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Yuck… A double play. Rally killer!
June 19, 2007 at 7:31 pm
#24, 32: Thanks, Marsh. This is very useful.
June 19, 2007 at 7:31 pm
36: In Bard’s case, I would say, since I thought that ball was going through. In Cameron’s case, I have no idea.
June 19, 2007 at 7:31 pm
That was pretty bad…Cameron got caught looking at 2 fastballs right down the middle. We just needed something in the air from either one of them.
June 19, 2007 at 7:31 pm
oof. anyone know the probability of loading the bases with no outs then *not* scoring?
June 19, 2007 at 7:32 pm
#36: LOL. Okay, I’ll accept that answer.
June 19, 2007 at 7:32 pm
Wow. That was awful. How does Cameron strike out looking with the bases loaded?
June 19, 2007 at 7:32 pm
GY, The opposite of clutch is obviously anyone who bats for the Padres with less than two outs and a runner on third.
June 19, 2007 at 7:34 pm
38: you’re definitely welcome.
June 19, 2007 at 7:36 pm
SDG: “Youv’e Got Mail.”
June 19, 2007 at 7:36 pm
Jake Peavy’s wOBA allowed is basically Geoff Blum.
June 19, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Geoff - *love* the charts. Here’s how I might do the “events” chart for multiple pitchers; make it a stacked bar chart where all the columns total to 100%. That way, you can compare guys and how they get their outs (Ks, flies and grounders if the data is available) and who gives up a lot of walks / HRs. I’d play with the vertical scale (maybe have the X-axis cross at 40%, assuming all the pitchers on the chart get outs more than 40% of the time) so the smaller categories get more space.
This is easy for me to say, of course - I’m not the one doing the data gathering and chartsmanship!
June 19, 2007 at 7:37 pm
Peavy looks really, really good. His control was a little off in the first, but his fastball is moving like crazy, and it looks like the ump is going to give him a generous outside corner.
June 19, 2007 at 7:37 pm
#41: This chart puts it at ~12%:
http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users.....druns.html
June 19, 2007 at 7:38 pm
32: Hmm, that must have been what’s buggin me about the right side of the dashboard, the 3D chart. Geoff, I agree with Marsh that the 2D would be better.
The Padres didn’t score? What the heck? Urgh.
June 19, 2007 at 7:39 pm
50: That sounds about right. I’d be willing to bet the % is lower with a team’s cleanup hitter the next up to bat.
June 19, 2007 at 7:39 pm
48: in my opinion, that’s a great suggestion.
June 19, 2007 at 7:39 pm
TD, Thanks, just let me know.
June 19, 2007 at 7:40 pm
Ooh, nice job by Khalil staying on the ball and driving it up the middle.
June 19, 2007 at 7:41 pm
#48: Awesome! Anything goes at this point; we’ll figure out what’s practical later. I definitely would like to get fly outs and ground outs in there as well. Unfortunately most places that provide GB/FB data include all balls put in play and not just outs. No worries, we’ve got time on our side.
June 19, 2007 at 7:41 pm
SDG, will do.
June 19, 2007 at 7:41 pm
41 - dang, Geoff, you are good.
53 - gracias. I’ve spent too much time with PowerPoint in recent years, so this sort of idea comes far too easily.
June 19, 2007 at 7:42 pm
56: I want to say ESPN gave a GB/FB out ratio, but I’m not sure.
June 19, 2007 at 7:42 pm
As long as we’re talking Boston Tix, I have a pair in the upper boxes on the third base side for Sunday that are extras… I have them on StubHub at $70 each, I’d take $40 from a DS hookup…
June 19, 2007 at 7:43 pm
So if you’re Joe Girardi…do you take this job or sit out the year and wait to see what else is open in the offseason?
June 19, 2007 at 7:45 pm
Jake gets it done (Gitter done).
June 19, 2007 at 7:45 pm
58: what do you do?
June 19, 2007 at 7:48 pm
63 - I work for a bank now, but used to work for a consulting firm, which was all PowerPoint, all the time. honestly, you were evaluated on how many charts you could produce.
June 19, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Oh yeah NOG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
June 19, 2007 at 7:49 pm
YESSSSSSSSSSSS NOG
June 19, 2007 at 7:49 pm
NOG visits the porch. Very nice!
June 19, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Leave the stinkin’ fences where they be!
June 19, 2007 at 7:49 pm
There we go! That eases the pain of the first inning!
June 19, 2007 at 7:50 pm
63: ironic. I just started up with a consulting firm this week for my summer internship during business school.
excuse me: go NOG!
okay, back: which consulting firm??
June 19, 2007 at 7:50 pm
NOG!
June 19, 2007 at 7:50 pm
3 Runs = Padre win
June 19, 2007 at 7:51 pm
Trachsel won’t make it to the fifth…
June 19, 2007 at 7:52 pm
Sorry, my math is off…
Jake pitching + 3 Padre-runs = Padre win
June 19, 2007 at 7:53 pm
70 - that’s awesome. Best of luck w/ the internship. Work smart and be friendly and your chances of getting an offer should be quite good. I used to work for Mercer Management Consulting, before they changed the name to Oliver Wyman. Good firm, but it was not what I wanted to do with my life. I got tired of being on the road 25 days a month.
June 19, 2007 at 7:54 pm
Headley scored his first career run on the NOG homer.
June 19, 2007 at 7:54 pm
72: The Padres are 7-6 in games where they score exactly 3 runs.
June 19, 2007 at 7:55 pm
76: Speaking of Headley, it’s nice to see him having quality PAs.
June 19, 2007 at 7:55 pm
77: Guess, the Padres must score more runs, even with Jake on the mound.
June 19, 2007 at 7:56 pm
79: We’re 4-6 when we score exactly 4, though.
June 19, 2007 at 7:57 pm
75: Very interesting. I just heard about that merger this week (I guess I’ve been out of the loop). I’m working with Bain Consulting this summer. Ironically, my brother Clayton, who also spends a pretty good amount of time on this site, took a position with Mercer Mgmt Consulting after graduating from business school in 2000. Unfortunately, though, they closed his entire office during the downturn in 2001.
June 19, 2007 at 7:58 pm
Is anyone watching the Az St vs. UC Irvine game?!?! I know, most are watching the pads (I’m watching it on my computer), but the CWS is on ESPN2 and it’s an amazing game. Bases loaded, 1 out, bottom 11…. Irvine at the plate….
June 19, 2007 at 7:58 pm
sorry, bottom 10.
June 19, 2007 at 7:59 pm
Irvine Wins!!!
June 19, 2007 at 7:59 pm
#58: No, I just know where to look for stuff.
#61: Sit and wait.
More chart thoughts. I think you guys are right about 2d vs 3d. I got cute with that, and I should know better. Simple is good. Regarding use of color, my one concern is printing cost, but I’ll look into it.
June 19, 2007 at 7:59 pm
UC Irvine just won.
June 19, 2007 at 8:00 pm
Woo-hoo Irvine!
June 19, 2007 at 8:03 pm
Is the Human Rain Delay looking to make a liar out of me with that fifth inning crack now?
June 19, 2007 at 8:04 pm
It’s really impressive that our lineup can strike out 3 times in 3 innings against a guy that came in striking out 2.67 per 9 IP.
June 19, 2007 at 8:07 pm
Record by Runs Scored:
0: 0-1 (.000)
1: 3-5 (.375)
2: 3-6 (.333)
3: 7-6 (.538)
4: 4-6 (.400)
5: 3-4 (.429)
6: 2-0 (1.000)
7: 9-0 (1.000)
8: 2-0 (1.000)
9: 2-0 (1.000)
10: 1-0 (1.000)
11: 4-0 (1.000)
June 19, 2007 at 8:07 pm
89: As an addendum to that: there is nothing wrong with strikeouts as long as they are accompanied by power and patience. And the Padres have a homer and three walks in three innings, so todo as bueno.
June 19, 2007 at 8:08 pm
90: Exactly half of our wins have come in games where we scored six or more runs.
June 19, 2007 at 8:09 pm
We’re 20-28 when scoring five or fewer runs.
June 19, 2007 at 8:11 pm
#89-93: You guys are hurting my brain after a very long day at work.
June 19, 2007 at 8:13 pm
OT: Got my Tony brick yesterday. Very nice.
June 19, 2007 at 8:14 pm
Richard, see #74, what happens when Jake’s pitching
(I was just being silly, but I bet adding Jake to the equasion changes things.)
4 now… Nice.
June 19, 2007 at 8:14 pm
Right on Khalil !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! You da man!
June 19, 2007 at 8:15 pm
Very nice Khalil….
June 19, 2007 at 8:16 pm
96: I know, but I thought it was interesting.
June 19, 2007 at 8:16 pm
I thought Chase was gonna go also. Damn.
June 19, 2007 at 8:18 pm
Three Major League teams are undefeated when scoring six or more runs (Padres, Red Sox & Dodgers).
June 19, 2007 at 8:18 pm
I love that commercial with Mud and Matty V…
June 19, 2007 at 8:22 pm
That was a fun inning.
June 19, 2007 at 8:22 pm
Jake is dealin tonight…
June 19, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Isn’t it nice that we are able to have fond memories of guys like Ramon Hernandez and Dave Roberts instead of resenting them for tying up valuable resources?
June 19, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Jake’s stuff looks so incredible tonight. That last pitch looked like it dropped 80 deg. Sheesh.
June 19, 2007 at 8:24 pm
Yep….was thinking the same thing…what a good choice not to bring Ramon back. Great guy and he was fun to watch, but he just can’t seem to stay healthy
June 19, 2007 at 8:25 pm
#105: I miss those guys. But then again, hell I miss Ricky Henderson (entertainment value).