| time: | 12:35 p.m. PT |
| tv: | none |
| sp: | Greg Maddux (6-4, 3.84) vs Matt Cain (2-8, 3.46) |
| pre: | Padres.com, SI.com |
How did David Wells and Greg Maddux end up back-to-back in the rotation again? I thought we agreed that the bullpen can’t afford that. The good news is that the Padres are off Thursday, so it shouldn’t hurt much this time. Still, not the best idea.
Like Wells, Maddux gets pounded once he reaches the sixth inning (.314/.338/.629 in 70 AB) or 76 pitches (.313/.368/.594 in 32 AB). Start getting those arms loose, and go Padres!
185 Comments
I believe Wells and Maddux ended up back to back so that the Padres could strategically drop the appeal Chris Young’s suspension at a time when it won’t require them to call up another starter or use someone like Justin Hampson in an emergency start role, but I am not sure that is the case.
GY, could you show the Padres performance against Cain at AT&T vs. Petco? For some reason, I think we stand a better chance at San Fran.
#2: Small samples, but he pretty much kills us either way:
@ AT&T: 27.2 IP, 2.28 ERA
http://tinyurl.com/yrenzn
@ Petco: 18.1 IP, 1.47 ERA
http://tinyurl.com/22rtug
3: Gulp. Thanks for posting this. Let’s hope the Pads reclaim some of their daytime magic and that we get some more longballs from our boys.
The Padres sent Chase Headley back to San Antonio today, and have Mike Thompson here in SF at the ready.
Barry is not in the Giants lineup
6: Well, that’ll help. Nobody else on that team is too scary. Cain better hold us to less than 2 runs or I think we take this one.
That would be too hard for Cain against our lineup.
Padres lineup:
M. Giles
J. Cruz
A. Gonzalez
M. Cameron
M. Barrett
K. Greene
T. Sledge
K. Kouzmanoff
G. Maddux
GY … thanks for link on luck … http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ten-things-about-one-run-games/ … in previous comment thread I questioned this statement …
the best teams still win one-run games more often than other teams
… and my interpretation of the graph that this statement is based upon is that good teams win fewer one-run games than non-one-run games … and bad teams win more one-run games than non-one-run games … ex. a .600 team will only win 55% of one-run games while a .400 team will win 45% … and that’s because the noise/randomness/luck in any one game is pretty wide … regressing all teams to the mean (.500).
So, my point is that if one wants to know if a team is “good” or not, it’s better to look at results of non-close games … that’s one of the reasons for me thinking that the 2007 Padres are a good team.
10. Looking at the other end of the spectrum, the Padres are 15-6 in games decided by margins or 5 runs or more this season.
That stat demonstrates that the Padres can pound the opposition far more often than being the victim of a pounding.
I’m lookin for Barrett and Greene to each go deep today in the day. Let’s hope a couple men are on for each of them when they do.
I’m not sure how much of John Miller on XM I’m gonna be able to take…
Ugh, not a good start.
Can we stop putting two of our worst hitters at the top of the lineup now? Not that lineup construction matters much at all. I hope OG coming back doesn’t make Cruz the starter in left, and instead the plattoon is continued.
Ugh, what is it with Maddux not getting the calls he’s supposed to? I swear, in like each of the last three starts, Maddux has not gotten the calls he’s supposed tol.
Sounds like that was a great play by Kouz and exactly what we needed there.
Well, at least we got out of it thanks to Molina firing a bullet right at
Kouz.
C’mon guys, stop hacking first pitch.
Let’s at least make Cain throw more than 10 pitches an inning, mmmk?
Hmm, so my prediction didn’t come through first time around. Mark my words, we’ll get you yet Cain ::shakes fist menacingly::
What’s really impressive about this team and the lack of contact is not how often they strike out but few pitches they see in doing so. Beckett finished 8 innings while striking out 8. Guthrie went 8, striking out 9. Bedard easily could have gone 8 but got pulled cause he was injured. Matsuzaka was the exception but only because he had no control whatsoever. Cain has 3 k’s in 2 innings with a whopping 21 total pitches.
Ugh, a HR to Feliz? C’mon Maddux. You can’t pull that crap.
What a sad lineup!
Crudge in left and Sleuz in right make the worst corner outfield duo above A ball.
25: Not true. I’m sure our AAA and AA corner outfielders are much worse. High A, on the other hand, has Huffman and Giles at the corners, so they might be better.
Sledge is a fine hitter against RHP.
Nice work Maddux!
I do not know, I would rather have P-Mac and Sinisi (AAA). I admitt, AA might be a push.
Just as I wrote 25 Sleuz got a hit.
Marcus needs to get a hit this series
Ugh, I’m on a conference call with intermittent radio access. This is killing me!
Damnit! That right there is an example of bad luck
29: No way i take that combo over Crudge
I cant get into this “luck thing”
#28: Maddux faked bunt and, swinging away, chopped one over the head of Feliz at third. That was sweet.
#32: Yep. NOG smoked the ball.
Did NOG hit that hard and Feliz just happened to glove it? I can’t tell from the description.
35: Thanks, Geoff.
Conference calls during baseball games = not so much fun.
Whoa, Ryno just missed that one.
Wow, Barrett swung at two pitches low for the K. Were they good pitches or he was just bad?
And the curse of the clutch K strikes again.
Let’s go, Padres! Score some runs.
BEEEYAHHHH!!!!!!!!!!
That was CRUSHED!!!!!!!!!!
Man why can’t KG hit like this all the time?
Khalil crushed that ball.
Yeay! Greene goes yard!! More runs, please.
Phantom called it …
Wow. That was two quick outs on 3 pitches. Cain’s pitches must look hittable this inning.
Of course Khalil jacks one when I’m in the bathroom! How gone was it? A no-doubter?
48: I’m halfway there. Barrett still needs to pick me up.
What the heck? Maddux saw as many pitches in that inning as the three batters ahead of him. It’s a good thing that Greene crushed that ball. The Padres are not wearing out Matt Cain at all.
Last 7 runs scored by the Padres via the home run . . . Cameron 3-run shot Monday, 3 solos last night, Greene’s solo today
45: He hits like this when it’s warm. I think historically, he has excelled in day games. He was on one of these tears last year when he got hurt. I’d love to see what Khalil can do healthy for a complete summer.
Was that number 13 for Khalil? Unreal that he’s almost to his career high before the ASG.
Khalil’s OBP is still pretty far below .300. So no more homers, Khalil, go up there and walk.
54. For Greene’s career: 24 HR in 140 day games (counting today)
36 HR in 331 night games
55: His OBP may be low, but what is he slugging right now?
55: Uh, yeah. Walks are much more valuable than home runs. What?
He was slugging .479 going into today’s game.
I’m calling a home run for Kouz today. He sounds like he’s having a hell of a game with the glove and a “Kouz Missle” would be phenominal!!!
C’mon guys, sarcasm. It’s a serious complaint, but it’s ridiculous for me to be complaining now when he’s going 1-4 every night but homering.
This season, he is slugging .493 in day games, .403 at night.
He is slugging .483 on the road, .450 at home.
He slugged .529 in April, .326 in May. He is slugging .548 in June, .607 in the last seven days.
61: lol, sorry. It’s a defense mechanism I’ve developed over the many years of being a Khalil fan. He’s often greatly underrated for what he brings to this team and inconsistent as he is, he is an asset.
56.
Are you suggesting we get brighter lights and a heater installed under the dirt between 2nd and 3rd at PETCO? I mean if we make it feel like it’s 1:05pm even though it’s 7:05pm do you think Khalil might play like it was? With those numbers it sounds worth looking in to! hahaha
Wow, John Miller is really clever. The Pads are now apparently the Ipods. Wonderful
re: 62, etc.
I actually wrote that backwards. He is slugging .403 in the day and .493 at night. He is hitting better at night.
10: hmmmmmmmm…. toss out any stats you like, but in my opinion, championship teams are those that are able to (1) win close games and (2) come from behind. Crushing teams is great; but it’s unrealistic in October…..
It sounds like as much as Maddux has worn off on Jake, some of Jake has rubbed off on Maddux.
C’mon Maddux, stop it right here.
Thru 6 …
Pitches-strikes – G Maddux 81-54; M Cain 78-55.
Ground balls-fly balls – G Maddux 9-6; M Cain 3-8.
Batters faced – G Maddux 24; M Cain 21.
… nice duel!
Maddux is done now, right?
Let’s go Padres! Come on, guys. Score some runs!
Bullpen better be getting ready.
Alright Barrett, I called it earlier. It’s time for you to pick me up.
67: It’s gonna be hard to have the discussion if you’re not going to look at the numbers.’
Generally, a championship team is a good team, and a good team will win close games and be able to come from behind. It’s a little hard to figure because there’s only 1 true championship team every year. The 98 Padres were a very good team, but not technically champions.
A bad team can still do well in 1 run games. The 1999 Padres were rough on the eyes, but 28-25 in one run affairs.
Ok, well that will work. Get another one Khalil.
lol, there’s your walk Ben.
There’s your walk, Greene. He heard you, Ben B.
#55: Dude, nice call.
67 … well said … and I wonder if there are more “close games” in the post-season than the regular season?
That just reminds me that it does seems like some teams (A’s are classic example, Yankees seem to be an example recently (ie. last 7 years), even Padres seem like a very recent example (ie. last 2 years) have figured out how win during the season … enough games to make the playoffs … but then not have the “it” that it takes to win the “championship” …
Is it predictable that a team will be good enough to make the playoffs but not good enough to win the World Series? I don’t think so …
Asked another way … how do you build a team that will win close games? … how do you build a team that comes from behind? I don’t think anyone knows how to do that …
Nice work Sludge. Well done.
Damnit, Terrmel.
Sorry, guys. Khalil, you can go back to hitting home runs now that you proved you can take a walk.
82: Way to saddle him with that guilt, Ben. Jeez.
79: The IT is a fleeting beast. The Yankees had IT in 2001 until the last inning of the last game of the WS.
I’ve had enough DPs this season, thank you.
I’ve had enough Terrmel this season, thank you.
Um, why is Maddux still pitching?
84 … ya … what’s the difference between “fleeting beast” and “luck”?
86 … because the 7/8/9 hitters were due up?
OK, so NOW Maddux is done, right?
Okay, Padres. Cain at 95 pitches already. Go get them runs!!
88: When I want a logical response LynchMob, I’ll ask for one!
Thru 7 …
Pitches-strikes – G Maddux 94-63; M Cain 95-66.
Ground balls-fly balls – G Maddux 11-6; M Cain 5-9.
Batters faced – G Maddux 27; M Cain 25.
… yup, Maddux is done now … he’ll be PH’d for … due up 2nd this inning … which is another fact that could/should have been included in comment #88 …
Maddux is done. Branyan on deck after Kouz.
91 … $logicoff … as you wish …
Padres with an even 50 quality starts this season now.
85: He’s still an 800 OPS hitter against righties. That was bad timing.
No swinging first pitch guys. It’s late and he’s struggling with location.
Let’s go Russell!
87: The only harnessing power I have ever known was ‘team chemistry’. Of course, everyone says that they have it, but who knows..getting along is different than believing in each other and supporting each other, but still all might have more “correlational ” relaionships with “IT” than “causal”….
damn I hate how Matt Cain shuts us down.
There is no such thing as “it.” If there was, “it” would have a better name.
Good teams win close games and come from behind and other impressive things because they are good. Teams with good to great bullpens have a better chance of winning close games in today’s game.
Doc broke the wrong way on NOG’s double.
All I saw was the ball get by Doc, but not what happened afterwards… should NOG have gotten further around the bases?
Booyah!
Yeay! Jomel came through.
El Hombre! Let’s go. Hit one out.
#102: No, Schierholz got over there in a hurry.
Heath Bell up and ready in the pen
Nice work Cruz! C’mon Adrian!
Wow. Bochy bringing in the closer. That’s not in his Padres book.
Gotta feel for Cain, 7 outings where he went at least 6 innings and allowed one run or less and he has 2 wins to show for it.
Ouch.
OK, NOW Barrett can come through on my prediction.
I went to the Giants website to get that stat. I don’t recommend doing that for anyone.
Being greeted with a wallpaper of “Vote Bonds” almost made me puke.
There is a play for that whole “LUCK” thing you guys had going earlier!!!
Ok fine, no jack for Barrett. But I’ll take a two-run error.
Thank goodness Vizquel got the day off.
96: I thought we were done with logic for the evening! Or is that just LynchMob?
99: I’d definitely go with that relationship being correlative. If you’re winning games and the guys are coming through for you, it’s easier to like each other and trust each other.
NICE BARRETT!!!
Now can we get our bullpen circa April/May please …
Oh well, Khalil whiffs at the breaking pitch, but he’s had a good day thus far. Let’s nail this down boys!
115: Whew! My thought exactly.That’s luck right there.
Man, Winn is being pesky right now. Just make an OUT, dude!
Sounds like Terrmel tried to make a nice play.
What happened? injury delay???
Ted and Andy are sure Sledge made the catch, the Giants announcers are sure he didn’t.
Sledge got dinged on the play. Bocachica in at RF, Cruz moves to LF.
85: Hmm, looks like I may have gotten my wish in a way I would rather not have.
Yeah Ted and Andy are dead-set that he caught that.
Sledge is out, Bocachica is in.
C’mon Heath!
123.
Really? Ted and Andy sound so sure it’s weird to hear the Giants are saying the opposite. Well then again people who root for the Giants are freaking loosers so I guess it’s not that weird haha.
Nice play Barrett!
Did Terrmel got hurt bad?
#129: Not sure. He was limping a bit…
Bocachica laid out for that, but no luck. Great effort.
Great, that bad call now hurts us. Wonderful work there umpires.
They were checking Terreml’s right thumb . . . probably jammed it in the turf on the dive.
Dang it. Come on, Bell.
HOLY CRAP I THOUGHT THAT WAS GONE!!!!!!!!
Oh God. I thought that bad call had totally killed this game. Whew.
Yikes, Molina took Cameron to the warning track. Bell is running on fumes today.
OK, good job, Heath Bell. I still can’t believe the Mets traded him to the Padres.
#133: Thanks, Bob…
137, 138: Oops. It didn’t look bad on Gameday. Must have been quite a charge. Whew!
Go Hiram Go.
Uh-oh…Silent L alert.
Trevor Time. Gotta like our chances for the series.
Stepped out for a snack, now I see that even The Hot Hand can give up a run.
This is part of Bochy’s book.
144: A bad call by the umpires led to that extra run. Sledge made a diving grab that was wrongly ruled a trap.
Death … Taxes …
2 down. Let’s go Trevor!
Gotta get Sweeney here . . . there is a Barry sighting on deck
146: Now that’s what I call (bad) luck
Three outs. Hoffman.
Bonds … grabs some bench.
Whew. Way to get the series guys. I was really concerned after the opener on Monday, but the boys bounced back well.
Another series win.
Excellent. All 3 games could have gone either way. Their tiger-style kung fu was strong, but our dragon-style kung fu defeated it.
Way to Go Padres! Just saw the score. Had to work all darn day and couldn’t even check the box. I’ll read the comments by y’all tonight.
Oh, just to temper down our disappointments in not having a good last homestand, the Angels just got swept by the Royals at home.
157: LOL.
#156. Um, yuck. Thanks for the perspective.
158: I lived in Anahiem for a couple years when I was a kid. Not at all surprised by a Royals sweep. The Angelitos has a good track record of playing down to other teams levels and choking at the end of the season.
157 … Didi, you crack yourself up?
159 … WARNING: Sarcasm ahead!
Ya, I think what the Angels did in the 60’s and 70’s had more of an impact on their series vs Royals this week than does “luck”!
160: Apparently, I did … laughing at 154. No worries, no harm done. I’m fine.
161: Dang 60’s and 70’s huh?
At the first and third games of this series. Tight games, very hard to relax, especially surrounded by opposing fans. Nice win today, despite lethargic bats, with the occasional jack. I believe that except for the two run error ALL of our runs in the series came off of HR’s. That is both good and bad.
Here are some numbers:
2007 – .448
2006 – .576
2005 – .592
2004 – .625
Those are the Padres records over the last 4 years in 1-run games. That pretty much destroy’s the theory that teams that are good in 1 run games are going to do well in the playoffs, as the 05 team was swept (and had a barely above .500 record) and the ‘06 version didn’t stick around long either.
In fact, I’d argue, that the Padres record in 1 run games in 2005 was pretty much proof that everything people were saying about the NL west was dead on. That team was out-scored by a pretty good margin, and would have been about a 76 win teams if it were’nt for luck in 1 run games. Given how our 1-run numbers have looked in the past few years, we were probably due for a regression. I’m not comfortable arguing that this team is significantly worse than any of the past three.
And Cruz’s single in this game. But all 3 in game 1, all 3 in game 2, and 1 in game 3. So 7 of 10 runs. Seems like the team is defined by KG; low OBP, but intermittent, nice power.
Cust hit a 3 run bomb today (#13 or #14 in how many at bats ? ) but he was not suited for the Padres because he cannot play defense.
167: What sucks is we got NOTHING for him
167: 13 HR, 33 RBI, .272 BA, 1.026 OBPS in 136 AB
167/168/169 … a week or so ago, we agree’d to stop beating this dead horse … but I know I broke that covenant a few times myself … hey, I like Jack … I always like’d Jack … I’m glad Jack is doing well for the A’s (they are the only AL team that I have any interest in, having attended Game 5 of the 1974 World Series when they beat the Dodgers) …
168 … I’m pretty sure the Padres got some cash … it ain’t much, but it’s more than “nothing” … also, it should be noted, that we gave up NOTHING to get him! (he was cut by the A’s after the 2005 season)
169 … I know he was DH’ing today …
And I can tell you who the next Jack Cust is … Paul McAnulty … or at least I hope he is …
It must be hard to look at a player in AAA and know how they will do in MLB … Jason Bay and Jack Cust some to mind as recent examples of guys that we (the Padres) “missed” … baseball skills seem fickle for players at the boundary between AAA and MLB …
170 … but I better say it before someone else does … the bottom line is that I don’t know Jack
170: I am happy he is doing well too. I dont think P-Mac quite has the bat to hammer out HRs like cust has, but i think he would be a good AL player with a decent bat and servicable in quite a few positions
170: The question is could we have had Cust on the MLB roster for free as a replacement for Dunn, which will cost us quite a bit?
What’s the difference in their defensive (in)capabilities? And would Cust have provided as much production at PetCo as some think that Dunn can?
We keep saying we need a big bat and bandy about all the names we could trade for. I don’t remember when it started in earnest (e.g., before or after Cust got traded).
170: I’ll have to agree with 172, P-Mac is no J-Cust. Cust was thought of for a long time as a future big-time hitter. P-Mac hasn’t gotten that much love outside of this board. On the other hand, he wasn’t going to play regularly here, and we did get some money out of the deal. There’s not really much else to be said. We saw him as a AAA masher, most other clubs did too.
173: I think that Dunn is simply big and lumbering and not good defensively. Jack Cust was a legend for how bad of a defender he was all the way back to his prospect days in COL and ARZ.
Letting Cust go was a mistake. There is no way, knowing what we know now, that letting him walk was a good idea. Obviously they saw something in him to keep him around, but some combination of factors precluded him from getting any extended playing time with the Padres. That is one in the “bad”column for the Padres management. But, these guys are not going to bat 1.000. They sure do a lot well. So, they are going to make some mistakes. I think anyone who says it was clearly logical to deny Cust a chance because of his defense is in a bit of denial, but what done is done. Yes it hurts, but unless this reveals a trend of similar bad decisions, I feel we have to let it go.
My intention was to bait the Cust conversation by writing the ” but he was not suited for the Padres because he cannot play defense” because my frustration bubbled up into a reactionary sarcastic blog post. I did this only because I am tired of reading the “Cust is an AL type player and thus is not a fit”. Obviously most everyone would agree now that this logic now does not fit this situation.
It is, especially now, beating a dead horse especially when you consider the good job K.T has done by bringing in talent “under the radar”. Guess you can’t make ALL the right decisions. I trust that KT will get it right when it comes to player evaluation most of the time.
Conine anyone down the stretch ?
BTW, for what its worth. You know who I think might actually be a better bet than Jermaine Dye and he might come cheaper. Jeff Conine. Look at Conine’s consistent performance both off the bench and as a platoon player and even as a regular. Conine is also healthy and seemingly more durable than Dye is these days, as Dye has been hurting now all year. Better yet, the Pads could probably have Dye and Conine (who can play the corners on the infield in a limited fashion if needed) on this roster and cast off Sledge or Branyan
Interesting to note:
Of all NL SS:
Khalil ranks second with 45 RBI (tied with Rollins, Hardy leads)
Khalil ranks second with 13 HR (tied with Rollins, hardy leads)
Khalil ranks first with 21 2B (Renteria in second with 19)
Khalil ranks second with 39 xBH (Rollins leads with 40)
His OPS, however, does not compare well due to his low OBP.
He’s second in K’s, but it should be noted that he has many fewer ABs than a lot of those immediately around him on the list. I had no idea Hanley Ramirez K’d that much, but the way.
Just interesting to compare Khalil’s batting stats to some of his contemporaries. Like I said, his OPS is low, but you cannot doubt his power and production. Interesting stuff to note.
67: Yeah, to hell with the historical record of events. What can that possibly tell us?
Down on the Farm …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_06_27_pdrrok_cubrok_1
Yefri (the Great) continues his nice start … he’s 18 years old …
At Lake Elsinore … OG with a *HUGE* night …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_06_27_hdmafa_lesafa_1
… including a HR and an OF assist! He’s ready for the Dogs!
For AAA Portland, Pete Laforest continues his *GREAT* Rob Deer impression …
http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_06_27_poraaa_tacaaa_1
… he’s hitting .205 … but hit his 18th HR of the season! He’s got the TTO thing goin’ … 28 BB and 42 Ks in 157 ABs …
Dogs lose … that caps off a good day!
Article in FoxSports about our bullpen.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6968468