The Orioles are coming to town and they are in a state of considerable disarray, which frightens me. It’s hard to say how a team will respond after its manager is fired, but with Sam Perlozzo no longer part of the picture ostensibly because his players failed to produce for him, these guys just might have a tiny chip on their collective shoulder.
Part of the problem in Baltimore has been the bullpen. I talked about this a little at Knuckle Curve the other day. Going back further (and in the interest of making a shameless plug), I noted on page 187 of the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual that “in any given season, a team can find generic equivalents to guys like Danys Baez and Jamie Walker.” I’m not presenting the world with some great truth here; I’m simply paying attention (which raises the question of what, exactly, the Orioles front office is doing, but I digress).
Baez, Walker, and Chad Bradford are costing Baltimore $10 million this year. Next year, that number is $12.5 million. In 2009, it jumps to $13.5 million.
Sometimes the brand name provides extra value. We’ve talked about Ichiro Suzuki around here in the past, and he’s a perfect example. People know, trust, and are willing to pay more for the Ichiro brand. There are no generic equivalents to what he offers.
The same cannot be said of Baez, Walker, and Bradford. These guys are not going to fill seats or be the focus of anyone’s marketing campaign. What possible reason could there be to pay them more than what their on-field contributions merit?
I don’t know.
What I do know is that decent relievers are not a terribly scarce commodity. (Great relievers are, but we’re not talking about them.) We’ve seen this in San Diego over the past several years, and plenty of other teams have grasped and used this concept to their advantage. The key lies in paying close attention to the market and properly identifying undervalued yet potentially useful cogs (neither of which falls under the field manager’s domain, but again I digress).
And ex-Padre Ramon Hernandez? Don’t get me started on his contract. We discussed that ad nauseum back in ’05. He’s hitting .244/.340/.378 and currently on the disabled list with a “groin contusion.” He’s also guaranteed $6.5 million this year, $7.5 million next, and $8 million in 2009.
Yikes.
So, to recap, the Orioles are paying three generic middle relievers and an old, banged-up catcher $16.5 million this year. The Florida Marlins, I remind you, won 78 games in 2006 with a $15 million payroll.
I’m not saying that money isn’t nice, but there’s something to be said for this talent evaluation thing.
by Peter Friberg
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
AAA
No game scheduled
AA
Will Venable: 2 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 1 RBI; 2 BB
Nick Hundley: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 2 RBI; HR, BB
High-A
No game scheduled
Low-A
No game scheduled
Commentary:
With the emergence of Brendan Harris in Tampa Bay, what about Reid Brignac for Wade LeBlanc + [low-level prospect]?
[Ed note: If others front the money, I'll gladly make a BevMo run or three to procure the necessary amounts of alcohol required to make this happen.]
* * *
As we near the halfway point, it’s interesting to look back at the organization’s top prospects. For comparison’s sake, I’m reminding you of the top 10 lists for Baseball America, MadFriars, and my own…
So, how are they doing?
Baseball America‘s Top 10 Padres Prospects
- Cedric Hunter
- Cesar Carrillo
- Matt Antonelli
- Kevin Kouzmanoff
- Will Venable
- Chase Headley
- Chad Huffman
- Nick Hundley
- Jared Wells
- Cesar Ramos
MadFriars’ Top 10
- Kevin Kouzmanoff
- Cesar Carrillo
- Cedric Hunter
- Chase Headley
- Will Venable
- Paul McAnulty
- Kyle Blanks
- Mike Ekstrom
- Chad Huffman
- Nick Hundley
Peter Friberg’s Top 10 (ranked prior to Kouzmanoff’s acquisition)
- Cesar Carrillo
- Cedric Hunter
- Chase Headley
- Matt Antonelli
- Will Venable
- Nick Hundley
- David Freese
- Kyle Blanks
- Kyler Burke
- Paul McAnulty
Because I’m writing this, I’ll report on each prospect in the order I ranked them (I’m also omitting Kouzmanoff as he’s an established big leaguer):
1. Cesar Carrillo RHP
| Lvl | W-L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | BAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 0-2 | 8.62 | 15.2 | 22 | 14 | 8 | 2 | .338 |
Cesar was injured in 2006 and never regained his form. He suffered several setbacks and finally succumbed to Tommy John surgery after yet another poor performance on April 30. Pitchers who have Tommy John surgery usually make a full recovery. Cesar still projects as a #2 or #3 starter. He’ll resume that path next season.
2. Cedric Hunter OF
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lo-A | 261 | .284 | .342 | .356 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 37 |
Cedric is posting solid — not spectacular — BB/SO rates. His extra-base hit rate and BABIP are each down significantly, however. He is still just a 19-year-old prospect in a pitchers’ league with solid on-base skills. But his star is not shining as brightly as it was last year.
3. Chase Headley 3B
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 227 | .357 | .433 | .648 | 21 | 3 | 13 | 31 | 53 |
Headley is quickly shooting up the prospect ranks. He has easily jumped to #1 on this list (we’ll see where he ranks after we take the newly drafted Padres into account). Last season in 484 at-bats, Headley hit 33 doubles and 12 home runs. This season he has already surpassed his 2006 home run total and assuming another 484-at-bat season, Chase is on pace for 45 doubles and 25 home runs. [Ed note: Headley was called up after this was written.]
4. Matt Antonelli 2B
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hi-A | 271 | .310 | .399 | .483 | 14 | 3 | 9 | 37 | 47 |
Last year, in his first taste of professional baseball, Antonelli went homerless in a hitters’ league. Scouts and minor-league prognosticators alike understandably questioned his power. Antonelli is making up for lost time with nine homers so far. A right-handed hitter, Matt is faring well against right-handers (.297/.383/.446) but he’s destroying lefties (.367/.466/.653).
5. Will Venable OF
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 247 | .287 | .353 | .360 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 41 |
Venable’s home-run stroke didn’t show up for his first 150+ at-bats last year in the Midwest League (1 HR in April and May combined — he hit 11 overall). Likewise this year he only has one homer coming into June. It’s a big step up from Low-A to Double-A and his struggles are understandable. Venable’s defense in center field is often questioned. If Will can’t play center and doesn’t figure out how to hit with power, the Padres deep group of corner outfielders will quickly bypass him.
6. Nick Hundley C
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 189 | .228 | .293 | .429 | 12 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 33 |
The Padres had high hopes for Hundley when they traded George Kottaras last September. And while a .297 on-base percentage simply does not get the job done, bad luck has victimized Hundley. In the more pitching-friendly home park in San Antonio, Nick has a .295 BABIP. In the rest of the offense-friendly Texas League, Hundley’s BABIP falls to .169. Don’t be surprised if Nick’s stats shoot up in the second half of the season.
[Ed note: It's worth mentioning that Kottaras has done nothing (.210/.288/.336) at Triple-A Pawtucket so far this year.]
7. David Freese 3B
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hi-A | 255 | .310 | .403 | .510 | 20 | 2 | 9 | 34 | 55 |
Drafted as a fifth-year senior, Freese has to move quickly. So far, so good:
(in 2006) NWL: .379/.465/.776 in 58 AB
MWL: .299/.374/.510 in 204 AB
If we total his professional at-bats so far we get the following:
.313 with 41 2B, 5 3B, 22 HR in 505 AB with a 63/111 BB/SO ratio
Freese probably won’t push Kouzmanoff off third, but his bat will play and his third baseman’s arm should be playable in right field.
Double-A, anyone?
8. Kyle Blanks 1B
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hi-A | 245 | .335 | .405 | .604 | 19 | 4 | 13 | 21 | 53 |
Last year Blanks’s season ended early when a leg infection cost him several weeks at the end of the season. Reportedly Kyle’s weight may have contributed (there were reports suggesting he easily topped 300 lbs.). Because of these concerns, Baseball America ranked Kyle 29th among Padre prospects. This year, Kyle is playing at a relatively svelte 270ish (he actually does look athletic for such a large man). If Blanks can handle left field, his value increases substantially. If he’s locked into first base/DH, he’s probably trade bait.
9. Kyler Burke OF
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lo-A | 213 | .211 | .305 | .268 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 73 |
In 2004 the Padres drafted a rangy, toolsy, athletic first baseman (Daryl Jones) out of a Los Angeles high school. He went on to post the following numbers:
2004: .295/.327/.389 with a 7/38 BB/SO ratio with the AZL Padres
2005: .188/.263/.267 with a 21/81 BB/SO ratio with the Eugene Emeralds
2006: .242/.325/.378 with a 46/114 BB/SO ratio with the Fort Wayne Wizards
Last year when the Padres drafted a toolsy, athletic kid from a Tennessee high school, I was too enamored with his athletic profile to notice the warning signs:
.209/.313/.294 with a 26/56 BB/SO ratio with the AZL Padres
Kyler still has the talent to succeed, but the biggest depth in this organization is hitters who profile best as corner infielders or corner outfielders. Kyler has been passed and is in danger of being lapped.
10. Paul McAnulty OF/1B
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAA | 130 | .269 | .347 | .392 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 27 |
| MLB | 40 | .200 | .256 | .300 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
Paul is a nice player to have if you have a right-handed first baseman and need a lefty hitter on the bench, or if all your outfielders are right-handed… On the Padres he doesn’t have as much use. However, he doesn’t have anything left to prove in Triple-A (career minor league numbers: .305/.398/.493). And as a guy who profiles best as DH, he’s miscast in the NL. You feel bad for him, but it’s hard to put him in the outfield 5-7 days a week and you’re not going to start him over Adrian Gonzalez… He’d probably bat .280 with 15 home runs if he had a full-time gig.
Others (other prospects not on my Top 10 list):
Mike Ekstrom RHP (MadFriars’ #8)
| Lvl | W-L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | BAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 3-3 | 4.54 | 69.1 | 88 | 22 | 41 | 3 | .311 |
Mike posted a 7.42 K/9 rate and a .251 BAA in Lake Elsinore in 2006. After moving up to Double-A Mobile, his K/9 rate fell to 5.23 while his BAA remained fairly constant at .261. This year, his K/9 rate remains low (5.32) and now he’s allowing too many hits (.311 BAA). As much as I want the Point Loma Nazarene alum to succeed (I’m an alum of PLNU as well), and the guys at MadFriars.com disagree with me, I don’t think Ekstrom is more than an organizational soldier.
Chad Huffman OF (BA’s #7 & MadFriars’ #9)
| Lvl | AB | BA | OBP | SLG | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hi-A | 240 | .308 | .403 | .529 | 16 | 2 | 11 | 31 | 40 |
Oops. I missed on this one. Between 198 at-bats in Eugene and 14 in Fort Wayne, Chad hit .335/.431/.561. In his 2006 draft scouting report, Baseball America indicated that he “should hit for average as a pro, and his power continues to develop.” He has settled in at left field and looks to be one of the organizational front-runners for that position starting in 2009-10.
Cesar Ramos LHP (BA’s #10)
| Lvl | W-L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | BAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 4-7 | 4.45 | 83.0 | 86 | 22 | 44 | 10 | .268 |
Last year Ramos posted a 3.70 ERA in the offense-friendly Cal League despite not striking out hitters (4.57 K/9) and allowing too many hits (161 with a .292 BAA). He’s now striking out more batters (5.16 K/9) and allowing fewer hits, but his ERA is higher. The organization keeps telling us how good Cesar will be but I just don’t see it. Cesar has consistently allowed too many hits without striking out enough hitters. He’s not a bad guy to have in an organization, but I can’t see him as a mainstay in the rotation.
Jared Wells RHP (BA’s #9)
| Lvl | W-L | ERA | IP | H | BB | SO | HR | BAA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 2-6 | 7.02 | 57.2 | 76 | 34 | 51 | 9 | .326 |
Jared Wells can pump a fastball up to 95 mph. However, when he’s starting you’ll see a lot more 89-92′s. After watching him struggle in Triple-A, the Padres have converted the right-hander to a reliever. It will be interesting to watch his progress.
Thanks, Peter. Padres and Orioles tonight at Petco. We’ll have the IGD up and running by 6 p.m. PT or thereabouts. Go Pads!