Comments on: Wells’ Best Not Good Enough http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html Blogging the San Diego Padres baseball club. Established 1997. Fri, 09 Jan 2009 01:47:51 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.7 hourly 1 By: LynchMob http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46845 LynchMob Thu, 17 May 2007 00:40:03 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46845 25 ... Didi ... great, thanks!<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46845">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 25 … Didi … great, thanks!

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46844 Geoff Young Thu, 17 May 2007 00:12:27 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46844 #37: Right, we definitely upgraded at both positions. Generally speaking, though, I suspect there is a greater premium on overall athleticism in this ballpark than there might be in some other venues. Cruz actually is turning out to be a terrific fit for Petco. Then again, he can do a lot more than most of us thought he could. :-)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46844">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #37: Right, we definitely upgraded at both positions. Generally speaking, though, I suspect there is a greater premium on overall athleticism in this ballpark than there might be in some other venues. Cruz actually is turning out to be a terrific fit for Petco. Then again, he can do a lot more than most of us thought he could. :-)

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]]> By: The Fathers http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46842 The Fathers Wed, 16 May 2007 23:46:14 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46842 Dave Roberts: 16 runs in 108 PA - .148 per versus Sledge/Cruz: 29 runs in 199 PA - .146 per little difference this year, plus our LF platoon is healthier and drives in more runs Josh Barfield: 15 runs in 129 PA, .116 per, 3 SB versus Marcus Giles: 23 runs in 167 PA, .138 per, 4 SB add that into your calculations, Geoff. ;)<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46842">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Dave Roberts: 16 runs in 108 PA - .148 per
versus
Sledge/Cruz: 29 runs in 199 PA - .146 per

little difference this year, plus our LF platoon is healthier and drives in more runs

Josh Barfield: 15 runs in 129 PA, .116 per, 3 SB
versus
Marcus Giles: 23 runs in 167 PA, .138 per, 4 SB

add that into your calculations, Geoff. ;)

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]]> By: Didi http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46841 Didi Wed, 16 May 2007 23:40:25 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46841 Jay maybe onto something but let's remember also that the roster of players we've had in the past is different from the current one. I think there is some adjustments to do when looking at the stats. The team as is right now is plainly not taking pitches. Just because it works for NOG, the stategy of see ball hit ball is not going to work for everybody. I like what Adrian Gonzales and OG are doing. I don't see how moving the fence in or changing the dimension of the park is going to solve the problem of hitting with RISP or getting on base. It may change a tying HR hit like last night but how often is that going to happen. I don't hear any complain when Maddux was staked out to a 5 run lead in the first 3 inning on Monday. None of those runs were courtesy of HR. Neither did we whine when the Padres shut out the Cardinals two out of three over the weekend.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46841">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> Jay maybe onto something but let’s remember also that the roster of players we’ve had in the past is different from the current one. I think there is some adjustments to do when looking at the stats.

The team as is right now is plainly not taking pitches. Just because it works for NOG, the stategy of see ball hit ball is not going to work for everybody. I like what Adrian Gonzales and OG are doing. I don’t see how moving the fence in or changing the dimension of the park is going to solve the problem of hitting with RISP or getting on base. It may change a tying HR hit like last night but how often is that going to happen.

I don’t hear any complain when Maddux was staked out to a 5 run lead in the first 3 inning on Monday. None of those runs were courtesy of HR. Neither did we whine when the Padres shut out the Cardinals two out of three over the weekend.

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]]> By: Geoff Young http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46839 Geoff Young Wed, 16 May 2007 23:28:35 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46839 #29: Thanks for the info. Good to know the club is monitoring the situation. Not surprising, but good to have it confirmed. #30: I haven't studied this closely, but I do think the inability to control the running game on defense and advance runners on offense is killing us. The frequency with which we're scoring even when we do get a hit with RISP is too low. #32: I believe Jay is onto something here, no doubt. The question is what can the Padres do about it. Long-term, some modifications to the park's physical structure may be a part of the solution. Short-term, adopting a better approach at the plate would help. I need to think about the run-one strategy issues more. My gut tells me that we might have been on the right track with players like Barfield and Roberts. Not necessarily those guys, but players with their skill set. That's one reason I believe that Robles is a better fit for this team than Blum. At home, the ability to lay down a bunt in a close game has more value than the ability to drive a hanging slider to the warning track.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46839">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #29: Thanks for the info. Good to know the club is monitoring the situation. Not surprising, but good to have it confirmed.

#30: I haven’t studied this closely, but I do think the inability to control the running game on defense and advance runners on offense is killing us. The frequency with which we’re scoring even when we do get a hit with RISP is too low.

#32: I believe Jay is onto something here, no doubt. The question is what can the Padres do about it. Long-term, some modifications to the park’s physical structure may be a part of the solution. Short-term, adopting a better approach at the plate would help.

I need to think about the run-one strategy issues more. My gut tells me that we might have been on the right track with players like Barfield and Roberts. Not necessarily those guys, but players with their skill set. That’s one reason I believe that Robles is a better fit for this team than Blum. At home, the ability to lay down a bunt in a close game has more value than the ability to drive a hanging slider to the warning track.

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]]> By: michael http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46837 michael Wed, 16 May 2007 23:22:14 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46837 One solution...schedule more day games! I know, I know...ain't gonna happen.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46837">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> One solution…schedule more day games! I know, I know…ain’t gonna happen.

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]]> By: The Fathers http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46835 The Fathers Wed, 16 May 2007 23:10:47 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46835 The reason statheads scoff at one-run strategies is because they usually don't work. Even when statheads say it is appropriate to use them, you still have to be able to get on base. From the games I have watched and listened to, the Padres are terrible at getting leadoff runners on base, which is what you usually need to attempt a one-run strategy. I cannot find a stat that documents that, but I do know that the Padres are dead last in the majors in AVG with no one on base at .213, and tied for last with a .279 OBP in those situations.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46835">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> The reason statheads scoff at one-run strategies is because they usually don’t work. Even when statheads say it is appropriate to use them, you still have to be able to get on base.

From the games I have watched and listened to, the Padres are terrible at getting leadoff runners on base, which is what you usually need to attempt a one-run strategy. I cannot find a stat that documents that, but I do know that the Padres are dead last in the majors in AVG with no one on base at .213, and tied for last with a .279 OBP in those situations.

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]]> By: dprat http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46834 dprat Wed, 16 May 2007 23:07:05 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46834 17 & 20: My first tendency was to say what most others seem to be saying, that, hey, the fences are the same distance for both teams, so let's just move on. Besides, I like pitchers' contest, too. But Jay has done a little research, and maybe there is something there. Schlom suggests comparing the Padres only to other teams' with winning road records. Results the same? Well, relative to this group (32 of 90 team seasons 04-06 had winning road records), the Padres still underperform at home though by a somewhat smaller margin (gap of .029 rather than .039). So, is this small sample size stuff, or is Jay on to something? If there is something real here, it's not like the fences can't be moved. At the least, seems to suggest a need for further study. In the meantime, by far the larger problem these days is the lack of taking a few pitches.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46834">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> 17 & 20: My first tendency was to say what most others seem to be saying, that, hey, the fences are the same distance for both teams, so let’s just move on. Besides, I like pitchers’ contest, too. But Jay has done a little research, and maybe there is something there.

Schlom suggests comparing the Padres only to other teams’ with winning road records. Results the same? Well, relative to this group (32 of 90 team seasons 04-06 had winning road records), the Padres still underperform at home though by a somewhat smaller margin (gap of .029 rather than .039).

So, is this small sample size stuff, or is Jay on to something?

If there is something real here, it’s not like the fences can’t be moved. At the least, seems to suggest a need for further study.

In the meantime, by far the larger problem these days is the lack of taking a few pitches.

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]]> By: LaMar http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46833 LaMar Wed, 16 May 2007 23:01:21 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46833 #30: I've noticed that for the last couple of games OG has been doing a better job of hitting to the right side to get a man over and into scoring position. Too bad we haven't been able to cash them in.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46833">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> #30: I’ve noticed that for the last couple of games OG has been doing a better job of hitting to the right side to get a man over and into scoring position. Too bad we haven’t been able to cash them in.

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]]> By: Anthony http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html/comment-page-1#comment-46832 Anthony Wed, 16 May 2007 22:43:42 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2007/05/wells-best-not-good-enough.html#comment-46832 I'm going to be an old fart and say I love the way Petco plays, it's a throwback to pre-steroid era baseball. I like that it's hard to hit home runs here. We need to play it up more, make the opposing hitters feel the same way about Petco as pitchers feel about Coors. Guys like Dunn, Griffey, Glaus, Sexson, etc have no problem hitting the ball out at Petco. On our own team we've seen Piazza and Branyan clear the walls with ease. Yes it robs the "normal" hitters of some home runs, that's why I think it's important to get one of those guys with real power. But it's like Sandy said, there's nothing available right now so we have to make do with what we have. As for Adrian, he's the one guy on this team I'm not worried about. He showed last year that he can recognize when pitchers have found a flaw in his swing and make adjustments. Part of the problem is this team isn't constructed to play old school, one-run, early 80's NL ball but they can't slug it out either. We only have two reliable bunters, Robles and Maddux, no real base stealers and we can't hold runners on base. All those one-run strategies that are scoffed at by the stathead crowd don't seem so stupid when games are so often decided by one run.<p class="top-comments">Current score: <span class="top-comments-karma" id="karma-46832">0</span> <small>(to vote for this comment, please visit the site)</small></p> I’m going to be an old fart and say I love the way Petco plays, it’s a throwback to pre-steroid era baseball. I like that it’s hard to hit home runs here. We need to play it up more, make the opposing hitters feel the same way about Petco as pitchers feel about Coors.

Guys like Dunn, Griffey, Glaus, Sexson, etc have no problem hitting the ball out at Petco. On our own team we’ve seen Piazza and Branyan clear the walls with ease. Yes it robs the “normal” hitters of some home runs, that’s why I think it’s important to get one of those guys with real power. But it’s like Sandy said, there’s nothing available right now so we have to make do with what we have.

As for Adrian, he’s the one guy on this team I’m not worried about. He showed last year that he can recognize when pitchers have found a flaw in his swing and make adjustments.

Part of the problem is this team isn’t constructed to play old school, one-run, early 80’s NL ball but they can’t slug it out either. We only have two reliable bunters, Robles and Maddux, no real base stealers and we can’t hold runners on base. All those one-run strategies that are scoffed at by the stathead crowd don’t seem so stupid when games are so often decided by one run.

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