Wells’ Best Not Good Enough
Wed, May 16, 2007
by Geoff Young
David Wells pitched about as well as he possibly could on Tuesday night (recap | box score). He hit his spots, mixed his pitches, and threw strikes 72% of the time. You can’t ask for anything more from the guy.
A weak bloop double in the sixth off the bat of Ryan Freel got the Reds their run, and Aaron Harang didn’t give it back until he stumbled off the mound in the eighth and balked home Geoff Blum. That bought the Padres a few extra innings, but it wasn’t enough to bring them victory.
Blum, Mike Cameron, and Khalil Greene all hit deep drives at some point during the game that might have left other parks. This continuing phenomenon has given rise to the unfortunate monstrosity of a verb “Petco-ize.”
I am slowly coming to accept that I’ll have to listen to people whine about Petco Park as long as it exists. Never mind that the Padres have a .529 winning percentage as a franchise since moving there in 2004, that they’re coming off three straight winning seasons for the first time in club history, or that they’ve reached the post-season in consecutive years for the first time.
Somehow, if the Padres had remained at Qualcomm (love the memories, but if you’re going to close off a stadium as much as that, you might as well finish the job and slap a dome on top), they would be doing better than this? Or do we need a new stadium already? I don’t follow the logic, if there is any.
Or maybe we need a new hitting coach. Last year folks were calling for Dave Magadan’s job. Merv Rettenmund came in and, shockingly, nothing really changed. I’m sorry, can we pin any of this on Duane Espy?
Anyway, don’t mind me. I’m old. I’m cranky. I’m tired of people hating on the Padres when they finally, for the first time in years, have their act mostly together. When I read some of the crap I read about them, I start to question whether San Diego even deserves a good sports team.
Still, it would be sweet to win a World Series. If nothing else, we’d get to hear folks talk about how, without Petco Park, it could’ve been even better.
by Peter Friberg
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
AAA
Pete Laforest: 5 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 5 RBI; 2 HR, SO
Tim Stauffer: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO, 1 HR
AA
Chase Headley: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2B, BB
Cesar Ramos: 7 IP, 7 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 1 HR
High-A
David Freese: 4 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B, SO
Jose Lobaton: 2 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 2 RBI; HR, BB
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 4 AB, 0 R, 3 H, 1 RBI
Ernesto Frieri: 1.0 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 2 R, 2 HR
Commentary:
When should I remove Stauffer from my “watch” list? He is not a prospect. It’s actually sad to see, not because you want to see Padres’ prospects succeed, but because he’s a good guy.
Only Ramos’ third bad start of the year — and four runs in seven innings isn’t that bad… He also had a pickoff.
* * *
[Ed note: Over the next two weeks, Peter will be profiling the top hitters and pitchers available in the 2007 draft. He'll cover approximately 10 per day. Enjoy!]
Draft Preview: College Hitters
The following are a collection of collegiate hitters who are draft-eligible. I compiled the list based on Baseball America’s top 50 collegians and a few other players I “found” perusing statistics. BA’s top 50 list is copyrighted, so I removed the ranking order; players are listed alphabetically. Stats are through games of May 14, 2007.
1B/3B Beau Mills (Lewis-Clark St.): .462/.551/1.000 with 21 2B, 0 3B, 31 HR, and a 31/17 BB/SO ratio — Mills is currently playing against lower-level competition (NAIA) but that bat will play. Mills is widely regarded as one of the top three or four college bats in the draft. Mills will likely be drafted in the 10-18 range. [Ed note: Mills is a transfer from Fresno State and the son of former big-league infielder Brad Mills.]
OF Danny Payne (Georgia Tech): .393/.522/.582 with 19 2B, 3 3B, 4 HR, and a 53/37 BB/SO ratio — Danny is also 18-for-24 in stolen base attempts. The walks are nice, but if he can’t play center field, he probably doesn’t have enough power to play a corner.
OF Brian Rike (Louisiana Tech): .351/.471/.727 with 13 2B, 2 3B, and 20 HR, and a 39/32 BB/SO ratio — Rike has also gone 15 for 16 in stolen base attempts. Rike won’t be taken with the 23rd pick, but according to Baseball America, “Few college hitters have catapulted their draft stock as much as Brian Rike. …The 6-foot-2, 200-pound outfielder has turned himself into one of the top power/speed players in the nation.” With five picks in the first supplemental round, Rike could be on the Padres short list.
1B Matt Rizzotti (Manhattan): .346/.493/.583 with 8 2B, 0 3B, 10 HR, and a 47/38 BB/SO ratio — Playing first base hurts him; he needs to hit that much more to get noticed. Only 10 homers isn’t great…
OF Kyle Russell (Texas): .358/.464/.877 with 11 2B, 4 3B, 26 HR, and a 35/54 BB/SO ratio — Set new home run record but reportedly has “aluminum bat swing.” High strikeout total worries me. Russell is also a draft-eligible sophomore, so he has more financial leverage than a typical junior. It’s unlikely, however, that he’ll replicate this season. I think he’ll sign with whichever team drafts him. (See also article at Baseball Analysts from May 1, 2007.)
1B/LHP Joe Savery (Rice): .353/.435/.490 with 15 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, and a 28/41 BB/SO ratio — I’m only looking at hitters here, so I wouldn’t take this guy as a bat; three homers as a first baseman? (See also article at MiLB.com for a report on his pitching ability.)
3B Brad Suttle (Texas): .359/.443/.596 with 13 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, and a 27/20 BB/SO ratio — Brad may be overshadowed by his teammate’s power (Kyle Russell); he also doesn’t have his teammate’s propensity to swing and miss.
OF/1B/C Jeff Tatford (Louisiana-Lafayette): .357/.496/.632 with 16 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, and a 38/40 BB/SO ratio — A senior. If Tatford can play behind the plate, he becomes much more interesting… He’s probably not a high round pick, but he could be someone the Padres target in the 5th to 10th round area…
2B Tony Thomas (Florida St.): .449/.542/.773 with 28 2B, 6 3B, 10 HR, and a 36/36 BB/SO ratio — Tony has also gone 26 for 31 in stolen base attempts. Tony is one of my favorite collegiate hitters in the draft. The speed and on-base skills will play and the power looks adequate for second base or center field.
OF Matt Webb (Centenary): .311/.527/.536 with 12 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, and a 59/39 BB/SO ratio — Another collegiate senior, Webb has gone 22 for 25 in stolen base attempts. The doubles, walks, and stolen bases make lower-level minors success likely. However, his ceiling is probably that of an organizational soldier.
C Matt Wieters (Georgia Tech): .376/.498/.639 with 17 2B, 2 3B, 10 HR, and a 46/31 BB/SO ratio — Matt is going to be quite rich in a few months. He’s the consensus top collegiate hitter in the draft, and as a bonus, he plays catcher. He’ll likely be off the board in the first fiv picks.
SS Danny Worth (Pepperdine): .349/.421/.500 with 19 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, and a 25/19 BB/SO ratio — Apparently his glove will play at short. Nice on-base skills as well… More power would be nice, but the doubles may be an indicator there.
Thanks, Peter. That’s all the hitters we’ve got; I look forward to hearing about the pitchers next week.
Quick reminder: I’ve heard from several folks about the June 9 meetup, and I’ll be sending a note out to y’all soon; if you haven’t dropped me a line yet, please do so. Let’s represent.
The Padres and Reds wrap up tonight at 7:05 p.m. PT. We’ll have the IGD up and running by 6. Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 16, 2007 at 8:23 am
Are saying the padres are doing well because of Petco? I thought it was because we have an excellent owner, strong executives in Sandy and his team, and KT who all have put together good teams over the last three or four years. The marine layer is very thick this week meaning heavy air downtown. IOWs, flyballs are dying out there. The look on Camys face when he smacked one deep and hard in the second inning didn’t express, “damn, the center fielder caught that,” rather it said, “damn I hate hitting in this place.” Hoe fricking hard do you have to hit a ball to get it out of Petco? Ask Griffey.
May 16, 2007 at 8:52 am
I was at the game last night and knew from the moment I sat down that home runs would be few and far between last night. The air was really cold and heavy, I was surprised that KG Jr got it out.
P.S. I voted for Adrian 70 times last night.
May 16, 2007 at 8:55 am
#1: No, I’m saying that the Padres are doing well, period, so maybe now isn’t the best time to be complaining about the ballpark. We know that fly balls die out there and yet we still act surprised when they do. Why is that?
May 16, 2007 at 9:07 am
3: I think that people complain for the sake of complaining. I used the verb “Petco-ized” a couple times last nite, but that doesn’t mean I think that we can’t get it done at home. Even without those balls being killed by the air, we still only had 2 hits.
I’m mildly concerned that the Reds have figured out how to contain Adrian, and I hope they don’t share their secret with the rest of the league. With Jake on the hill tonite, you can’t help but feel like we’ve got a good shot at winning the series.
May 16, 2007 at 9:10 am
Love the ballpark and couldn’t care less about HRs. I do hate watching only 1 run “scored” through 12.
May 16, 2007 at 9:15 am
#3: Yeah, you’re probably right. After all, here I am complaining about people complaining.
Adrian has taken some ugly swings the past couple nights. Here’s hoping he can make the adjustment sooner rather than later and get back on track…
May 16, 2007 at 9:17 am
Its just frustrating, that’s all, frustration exasorbated by a lose when Wells went eight strong innings. We could argue that Wells’ strong performance was enhanced by the heavy air. Ideally, you’d like to see guys adjust to the park and hit more line drives. Anywho, its a new day, so lets win the series. Petco is great and frustrating at once, kinda like my dog.
May 16, 2007 at 9:25 am
You can see video of “the balk” at mlb.com … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....;ym=200705 … pretty amazing …
I think the last 2 comments from last nights IGD deserve some followup …
- JP asked if perhaps the Padres would be better with McAnulty instead of Sledge on the roster right now?
- jay asked if perhaps the Padres would be better with a less “free swinging approach” … citing that the Padres are 14th out of 16 in NL in PPA (pitches per plate appearance)
I’m pretty sure Petco is not any part of “the problem” (where I s’pose “the problem” is that the Padres are not winning enough games to be way out in first place?
) …
In addition to the 2 points above, I continue to think the Padres would get better results by …
- not having Geoff Blum on the roster (despite his recent successes)
- not having 12 pitchers on the roster … either that, or PH for Wells sooner last night (ie. if the team is going to have a deep bully, then use it, and don’t waste precious ABs by letting Wells go up there)
May 16, 2007 at 9:31 am
3. I am usually not very surprised when balls don’t get out but last night Cameron KILLED that ball and yeah I was totally surprised that it didn’t get out. I seriously thought it might go to the 2nd deck for a sec and then you could litterally see it stop moving out and start basically falling down it was really kinda crazy.
I was at the game last night so I don’t know about the coverage on tv but the play Kouz made on that bunt and throw to third was amazing. I heard themradio guys talking about Greene’s play and it was good but KK’s play looked insane from the 3rd base seats. When he threw the ball Khalil wasn’t even at the base and it didn’t even look like Kouz looked before he let it go. He just threw it where he knew Greene should be. Everyone in the seats around looked at each other for a sec before they started cheering.
In other news… I caught my first foul ball ever last night. The bad thing is that when I was running over to get it I wound up railroading a little kid on accident. I swear he came out of nowhere and poor little guy took a pretty good fall but I picked him up and handed him the ball. He was pretty happy I guess but it was pretty f-ing embarrasing that I destroyed a little kid to get to my first foul ball and then had to give it away.
May 16, 2007 at 9:46 am
9- please supply Youtube footage asap.
May 16, 2007 at 9:51 am
10. hahaha I hope not!
May 16, 2007 at 10:12 am
At least you did the right thing and gave the kid the ball. Was it a barehanded catch or with a glove?
May 16, 2007 at 10:16 am
GY, it’s not just the frustation with no HR’s, it’s the lack of offense as a whole. Tough to get excited when your team gets 2 hits. While you look forward to having the team come up to bat, there’s that haunting “what’s the point” voice going off in your head.
Then again, I don’t know which is worse — getting no offense or being unable to score with RISP. Neither is great.
That all said, however, we’re still above .500, our pitching is great, although pressured, and we’ll be in the thick of things until the end. Can’t complain about that part.
May 16, 2007 at 10:19 am
It bounced off of this guy first and he took all of the impact before I could get a hand on it.
May 16, 2007 at 10:39 am
Adrian is only hitting .208 in the last two weeks.
I hope he’ll get out of this funk.
May 16, 2007 at 10:40 am
Petco is Petco. Both teams have to play in the same condition. I think part of the reason Wells did so well last night was the Petco Park. The same is true for Harang. Of all the flyballs that were hit, the only one left the park was the only one that Heath Bell gave up.
The Padres would have lost the game earlier were it not for Harang falling off the mound. Two fricking hits, one of which was the pinch hit, just wasn’t going to win games. The Padres already got that one out of the way when they beat the Giants 1-0 on April 9 with only 2 hits.
May 16, 2007 at 10:46 am
Re: Petco; apologies to GY because I am a Petco complaintant (not sure if that is a noun). Painfully long post here, sorry.
Yes, SDG playing well in historical context, good team, smart management, good manager (I think; still early, not even really sure I can judge what a good manager looks like, aside from in-game moves and line-up choices), BUT
Petco home field advantage, through this season, starting in 2004, measured as Home WP - Road WP = .526 - .515= .011.
That is good for 27th of 30 teams. ML Average = .039.
So, taking that further, if Petco played at ML average, arguably we would have a Home WP of .554 (.515 + .039), transalating to roughly 150 wins vs. the 142 we do have, so 8 wins, or 2.x wins a season.
I have my hypotheses. Maddux from his outing:
“Runs are a beautiful thing,” Maddux said. “We got a lot of runs early, so every pitch, the game is not on the line. That’s a good feeling.”
This may answer the question (only “may”) why if the SDG hitters a hurt so much, why aren’t the pitchers benefitting by the same amount? Even if you have a big park but your team can go 12 innings with a few hits, you get cautious, gets in your head. That can’t be a good thing.
I know complaining about Petco may get old, but I feel the data is on the side of the Petco Complainers (PETC) rather than the PETCO Apologists (PETA). Blaming the hitters that they are not adjusting seems way off. I remember a quote from KG a few years back about HR’s. He said, basically, “You don’t try to hit HR’s, you just try to put a good swing on the ball and HR’s happen” or something close to that. I think you want the players just trying to put a good swing down, not a highly specific swing (OK, must be line drive or I am dead). My guess is that you start thinking that much, it hurts your hitting.
I also made a comment about Merv. I was not someone calling for Dave’s head last year: he was preaching plate discipline, and I believe in that. I don’t know how much hitting coaches really make a difference, but I seemed to have noticed a much less disciplined approach among our hitters this year (and pitches per PA seem to support it). Maybe, for these players, that is appropriate, but when I watch Harang or whoever, go through guys on 2-4 pitch AB’s, repeatedly, I get frustrated. I would like to see/hear it being addressed. So far, I have heard nothing.
May 16, 2007 at 11:11 am
#13: Absolutely the offense is a problem, but I keep reading in the paper about balls dying at Petco and it sounds like excuses. At some point you have to stop smacking your head against the wall and look for a door.
#17: The real problem I have with complaining about Petco Park (and I’m not talking about you, Jay, but more in general terms) is that it isn’t going to change. When I start griping about stuff, I would prefer to focus on things that can be acted on in some way (you and LM in #8 have identified a few):
–Geoff Blum’s presence on the roster (although this might be more a fact of life than I’m willing to admit)
–Twelve-man pitching staff
–Inability to hit with RISP
–Mike Cameron’s reluctance to use the entire field
–Lack of plate discipline
I totally understand the frustration, because I feel it myself. I just think that the sooner we all (players, media, fans) get over the way Petco Park plays, the better, because I don’t see the Padres moving anytime soon.
At some point we need to stop asking, “Why do we have to deal with Petco Park?” and start asking, “Since we’re going to be here a while, how do we go about learning to thrive in this place?”
That’s my gripe. If it takes complaining about Petco Park a little more, then so be it. But I’d really like to see people move toward a more solution-oriented focus. And I’d like to see it happen sooner rather than later, because if you’re not moving forward, then you’re moving backward.
Finally, no need for apologies, Jay. We’re all free to speak our minds here. I hold that truth more dear than just about anything else I spew. Your contributions to the discussion are always appreciated!
May 16, 2007 at 11:28 am
Since it is now the 4th year, I am definitely on the “stop complaining about Petco” bandwagon, although I would like to see a straight wall created from the end of the Petco porch to the beginning of the out-of-town score board. Maybe that would encourage more lefties to go for the porch area, an underutilized option if I ever saw one at Petco.
I am not surprised the Padres showed poor discipline at the plate against Harang, because (a) they generally do; and (b) going into that game, Harang had only walked 9 in 38.1 innings - the Padres actually got 3 off him. Harang is a quality pitcher who unfortunately plays half his games in a band box. He is an ideal Petco pitcher.
May 16, 2007 at 11:33 am
Another day, another complaint about the stadium. As usual, it doesn’t make any sense. Everyone does realize that if a park is tough on hitters, then it is good for pitchers? Why should the Padres change their stadium to benefit Mike Cameron and hurt Chris Young? Does that make any sense to anyone? The simple fact is that it’s easier to find good hitters than good pitchers so logically, you should have a stadium that benefits pitchers. Everytime I see one of these threads I try to point this out yet everyone seems to ignore it.
Reading Jay’s post above about home field advantage, I think the most important thing is not that the Padres have a low home field advantage compared to other teams but the fact that they have a winning record on the road. I’m not sure how many teams since 2004 have winning road records (not many I’m guessing). Maybe Petco doesn’t help the team much at home, but it certainly looks like it prepares them to play on the road. I guess people would rather see them look more like the Rockies — a great home field advantage mainly because they are such a terrible road team.
Remember the goal of the team isn’t to hit HRs at home or have a great home field advantage, the goal is to win overall. And since Petco has opened, the Padres have done that (or at least when it hasn’t mattered during the season, let’s not talk about the playoffs). From that measure alone Petco has been a success.
May 16, 2007 at 11:49 am
Petco’s fine. Three seeing-eye singles at three different home games this year and we have three more marks in the W column.
Kevin Goldstein says that Brackman and Wieters may be the Weaver and Drew of this year’s draft, players with big bonus demands and/or scary agents who may fall (he says to the mid-late 1st) despite being talented enough to go top 10.
May 16, 2007 at 12:12 pm
TW, I hope you and the other commentors/bloggers with knowledge about the draft will get together for a blog-vention we can follow this year. I will expect to see you rip the Padres for picking a certain player when other sure-fire studs are still on the board, so please don’t disappoint.
May 16, 2007 at 12:45 pm
As long as we’re all grousing . . . . I remember SA saying at the end of last season, “If we can get some offense and score some runs, we’ll be tough to beat with our pitching.” Unfortunately, the price for free agent bats went through the ceiling.
We elected, instead, to improve an already good pitching staff with the addition of GM and DW, and added a few more arms in the pen, rather than to pay exhorbitant money for a bat. Offensively, we bet our offensive future on Crudge and Kouz, and to a minor extent NOG (since most of the projections showed a “push” with Barfield), apparently thinking that our other position players would stay the same or improve from last year.
Well, Kouz is performing well below expectations, Crudge is a pleasant surprise, but not jaw-dropping, NOG’s better than anticipated, but everyone else is pretty well playing at or below their recent norms.
This may be one of those years, at least until the trading deadline, if not later, that we may have to sit through the 1-0, 2-1, 3-2 games and hope we’re on the high end, although it might be easier to stick a fork in my eye.
May 16, 2007 at 12:46 pm
I’m sick of the complaining about Petco too. Not so much from the fans, but the players. As fans there’s not much we can do. I am absolutely convinced that it’s all mental with the players. There’s no doubt that the park suppresses offense, but I just don’t buy into the idea that it’s such an impossible place to play. Other teams often have no problems coming up with hits when they need them or crushing homers. Part of the problem lies in the fact that the other teams often have better hitters, but the Padres collectively have psyched themselves out. Just look at comments by Greene, OG, and the departed Barfield. BTW, you don’t see Adrian complaining about Petco do you? He uses all fields and gets results by putting his normal swing on the ball.
Magadan said that the wind blows in through the breezeway on the third base side and hence prevents the ball from going out down the left field line. If he knows this, then the Padres know this. So it has to be asked, what’s with the Padres’ emphasis on obtaining right-handed power hitters? Almost every stat related to park factors shows that the park suppresses right-handed power from left to center. I forget the name, but that website devoted to tracking home runs has detailed weather forecasts for every game, and it commonly shows that balls hit from left to center on most nights at Petco will travel about 10-20 feet less than they would elsewhere, and that balls actually travel father toward right field, which makes sense if you think about it.
Re: #19, I agree with you about moving in the fence. I would take it one step further, I would bring the fence in so that it runs straight across to center parallel to the right field grandstand, and not angled as you seem to propose. It’s not that I think it will result in that many more home runs overall, but the Padres have a perception problem, and this solution would help with the fans and their players. I don’t buy the excuses that they can’t do such a thing because of the structure of the park. They could move the fence in and add seats in behind it so that the wall is the same height as it is elsewhere. Sorry for the length, but I get sick of Petco complaints when the Padres can only muster 2 frakking hits in 11 innings and can only score via a balk. That’s not the park’s fault.
May 16, 2007 at 12:53 pm
Good read:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2866179
May 16, 2007 at 1:19 pm
I could never complain about Petco. My mom is a senior accountant with Petco, and since the Padres have moved home, I’ve enjoyed some incredible opportunities as a result of this relationship.
Going beyond that though, Petco is just an amazing, beautiful stadium. I’d like to see guys adapt a bit more, but overall, I couldn’t be happier with the stadium.
May 16, 2007 at 1:58 pm
Again, someone saying that they should bring in the fences. Why? Is it because no one cares about the pitchers? I’m just curious about it now. Everyone (except for me) seems to want to see more home runs. Are they that exciting of a play? Is the goal of the team to entertain or to win? The two teams with the most HRs at home are the Marlins (27 in 21 games) and the Reds (29 in 20). They are also 10-11 and 8-12 at home. If you saw Adam Dunn or Griffey hit one into the river but lose would you still go home happy?
Let’s not get crazy after just a few games. Remember, the Reds were extremely lucky to get their first run last night (infield hit driven in by Freel 2nd lucky opposite field bloop double in two nights). In fact, they should have been shut out two nights in a row. But sometimes you get lucky. Most of their batters can’t continue to do as poor as they’ve been doing. And if they do, it’s not going to matter what you do with the fences or any moves they make because they are going to be horrible. When (or if) the team starts hitting this little non-scoring stretch is going to be a distant memory.
And if you want to see some unreal stats, check out their pitching at home:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....eason=2007
15 HRs for the offense and only 5 given up so far. Unreal!
May 16, 2007 at 2:45 pm
Re 27: My fence moving in suggested is limited to a small portion of the field, and is mainly for aesthetic reasons, but also for hitter psychology reasons. However, the bulk of Petco’s HR suppression can’t be fixed unless they close off the wind tunnel that comes from the third base concourse, and find a way to shut off the wind tunnel that comes in from the Park at the Park. I don’t think either of those are going to happen.
I love pitchers’ duels by the way. I just would like to find a way to get the hitters to shut the F up already.
May 16, 2007 at 3:34 pm
I was just listening to SA on XX radio. He’s got the same frustration we all do. His comments:
During the off season they wanted to improve the offense, but because of the escalation of the market, they decided to go in a different direction. They did it by bringing in pitching.
What they thought they could do in the off season, they did and it’s panned out on the pitching side.
There’s no quick fix under a trade scenario. It’s not the money, it’s that no one is available. They’ll have to fix this offensive problem from within. One thing that SA’s disappointed in is the approach of our players have at the plate. He cited the fact that recently, we were last in the league in pitches per plate appearance. It’s lower than it was last year.
He also was asked about changing the dimensions at Petco. He said that he’s like any other fan and would like to see a little offense. He mentioned that we’ve got the biggest gaps in the outfield of any team in the league. They’ll continue to moniter it and if the dimensions need adjusting, they’ll do it. He wants to assure they’ve got a properly balanced park. (He mentioned that he’s thought about changing the dimensions in the last couple of weeks, in fact, probably due to same things that prompted our discussion today.)
May 16, 2007 at 3:43 pm
I’m going to be an old fart and say I love the way Petco plays, it’s a throwback to pre-steroid era baseball. I like that it’s hard to hit home runs here. We need to play it up more, make the opposing hitters feel the same way about Petco as pitchers feel about Coors.
Guys like Dunn, Griffey, Glaus, Sexson, etc have no problem hitting the ball out at Petco. On our own team we’ve seen Piazza and Branyan clear the walls with ease. Yes it robs the “normal” hitters of some home runs, that’s why I think it’s important to get one of those guys with real power. But it’s like Sandy said, there’s nothing available right now so we have to make do with what we have.
As for Adrian, he’s the one guy on this team I’m not worried about. He showed last year that he can recognize when pitchers have found a flaw in his swing and make adjustments.
Part of the problem is this team isn’t constructed to play old school, one-run, early 80’s NL ball but they can’t slug it out either. We only have two reliable bunters, Robles and Maddux, no real base stealers and we can’t hold runners on base. All those one-run strategies that are scoffed at by the stathead crowd don’t seem so stupid when games are so often decided by one run.
May 16, 2007 at 4:01 pm
#30: I’ve noticed that for the last couple of games OG has been doing a better job of hitting to the right side to get a man over and into scoring position. Too bad we haven’t been able to cash them in.
May 16, 2007 at 4:07 pm
17 & 20: My first tendency was to say what most others seem to be saying, that, hey, the fences are the same distance for both teams, so let’s just move on. Besides, I like pitchers’ contest, too. But Jay has done a little research, and maybe there is something there.
Schlom suggests comparing the Padres only to other teams’ with winning road records. Results the same? Well, relative to this group (32 of 90 team seasons 04-06 had winning road records), the Padres still underperform at home though by a somewhat smaller margin (gap of .029 rather than .039).
So, is this small sample size stuff, or is Jay on to something?
If there is something real here, it’s not like the fences can’t be moved. At the least, seems to suggest a need for further study.
In the meantime, by far the larger problem these days is the lack of taking a few pitches.
May 16, 2007 at 4:10 pm
The reason statheads scoff at one-run strategies is because they usually don’t work. Even when statheads say it is appropriate to use them, you still have to be able to get on base.
From the games I have watched and listened to, the Padres are terrible at getting leadoff runners on base, which is what you usually need to attempt a one-run strategy. I cannot find a stat that documents that, but I do know that the Padres are dead last in the majors in AVG with no one on base at .213, and tied for last with a .279 OBP in those situations.
May 16, 2007 at 4:22 pm
One solution…schedule more day games! I know, I know…ain’t gonna happen.
May 16, 2007 at 4:28 pm
#29: Thanks for the info. Good to know the club is monitoring the situation. Not surprising, but good to have it confirmed.
#30: I haven’t studied this closely, but I do think the inability to control the running game on defense and advance runners on offense is killing us. The frequency with which we’re scoring even when we do get a hit with RISP is too low.
#32: I believe Jay is onto something here, no doubt. The question is what can the Padres do about it. Long-term, some modifications to the park’s physical structure may be a part of the solution. Short-term, adopting a better approach at the plate would help.
I need to think about the run-one strategy issues more. My gut tells me that we might have been on the right track with players like Barfield and Roberts. Not necessarily those guys, but players with their skill set. That’s one reason I believe that Robles is a better fit for this team than Blum. At home, the ability to lay down a bunt in a close game has more value than the ability to drive a hanging slider to the warning track.
May 16, 2007 at 4:40 pm
Jay maybe onto something but let’s remember also that the roster of players we’ve had in the past is different from the current one. I think there is some adjustments to do when looking at the stats.
The team as is right now is plainly not taking pitches. Just because it works for NOG, the stategy of see ball hit ball is not going to work for everybody. I like what Adrian Gonzales and OG are doing. I don’t see how moving the fence in or changing the dimension of the park is going to solve the problem of hitting with RISP or getting on base. It may change a tying HR hit like last night but how often is that going to happen.
I don’t hear any complain when Maddux was staked out to a 5 run lead in the first 3 inning on Monday. None of those runs were courtesy of HR. Neither did we whine when the Padres shut out the Cardinals two out of three over the weekend.
May 16, 2007 at 4:46 pm
Dave Roberts: 16 runs in 108 PA - .148 per
versus
Sledge/Cruz: 29 runs in 199 PA - .146 per
little difference this year, plus our LF platoon is healthier and drives in more runs
Josh Barfield: 15 runs in 129 PA, .116 per, 3 SB
versus
Marcus Giles: 23 runs in 167 PA, .138 per, 4 SB
add that into your calculations, Geoff.
May 16, 2007 at 5:12 pm
#37: Right, we definitely upgraded at both positions. Generally speaking, though, I suspect there is a greater premium on overall athleticism in this ballpark than there might be in some other venues. Cruz actually is turning out to be a terrific fit for Petco. Then again, he can do a lot more than most of us thought he could.
May 16, 2007 at 5:40 pm
25 … Didi … great, thanks!