Padres Sign Latos, Beat Bucs
Thu, May 31, 2007
by Geoff Young
It’s not often that a 9-0 victory takes a backseat to a draft signing. Then again, it’s not often that the Padres sign a guy like Matt Latos.
In case you missed it, the Pads and Latos agreed to terms late Wednesday evening. Jim Callis at BA has the bonus at $1.25 million, well off what Latos reportedly had been seeking.
Needless to say, I am beyond fired up about this signing. Latos, who is scheduled to begin his pro career at Eugene, Oregon (road trip!), immediately becomes the best pitcher in the system.
On a more pimpalicious note, I’ll be liveblogging the MLB draft next week over at Knuckle Curve. As a sneak preview, I’ve thrown together a little something on Latos. If you’re geeking out on the draft, just know that you’re not alone. 
So. The game (recap | boxscore).
The Padres scored two runs over the first seven innings, and seven over the final two. This holds no significance whatsoever, but it amuses me. Now fetch me some grapes.
Anyway. What’s to say? Chris Young dominated the team that originally drafted him (2000, third round), spinning seven scoreless innings. Even better, he used just 86 pitches in the process. Only once this season has Young thrown fewer pitches in a game (84 over two innings on April 15 at Los Angeles).
In fact, Wednesday marked the second straight start that Young worked seven innings while keeping his pitch count below 100. That’s a nice combination. If it weren’t for Jake Peavy (4-0, 0.79 ERA, .164/.218/.207), Young would get serious consideration for Pitcher of the Month in May (4-1, 1.13 ERA, .173/.250/.252).
Mike Cameron collected three hits, raising his May numbers to a spiffy .273/.345/.495. Khalil Greene added two knocks, including an eighth-inning grand slam that effectively ended the game.
Heck, even Justin Hampson got to pitch an inning. I don’t know how he and Kevin Cameron are able to stay so sharp despite almost never getting the call. A day after Cameron made his first appearance in 2 1/2 weeks, Hampson threw 17 pitches to end a 10-day drought.
Hey, we’ve got 12 pitchers on the staff. Might as well use ‘em…
by Peter Friberg
You will not see the original preamble in this location. It has been removed by popular demand. I wonder if you even noticed…
AAA
Clay Hensley: 4.1 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 4 ER, 5 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR
AA
Will Venable: 5 AB, 2 R, 4 H, 3 RBI; 2B, 3B, HR - cycle!
Chase Headley: 3 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB, SO
High-A
David Freese: 5 AB, 3 R, 5 H, 0 RBI; 3 2B, SB
Craig Cooper: 5 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2B, 3B, 2 SO
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2 2B, CS
Commentary:
Obviously the big news today was Matt Latos’ signing. Latos is getting stiff competition from Chase Headley (.341/.423/.584) but he’s easily one of the top contenders for the best player in the Padres minor league organization. Now keep in mind that based on talent, Latos would probably go in the 20-40 range in this draft if he was available. Add in the fact that the Padres have the 23rd and 40th picks in this draft (not to mention the 46th, 57th, 63rd, and 64th picks) and it’s easy to see why 2007 is such a huge year for the organization.
Back to Latos: Earlier this week I broke down the competition for the starting position players in 2011. Here’s the likely 2011 rotation:
SP1: Jake Peavy
SP2: Chris Young
SP3: Matt Latos
SP4: Cesar Carrillo
SP5: Wade Leblanc
Clay is not performing like he wants to pitch in a big-league rotation.
[Ed note: On the bright side, reports are encouraging.]
Will Venable and David Freese deserve big congrats on their days: a cycle and a 5-for-5 night, respectively.
Cedric Hunter, a lefty, has been destroying left-handers (.377/.434/.493) this season but has struggled against right-handers; after the two doubles Wednesday night (off a RHP) he’s up to .228/.307/.298 in 114 AB.
Thanks, Peter! Feels good to have Latos in the fold. I’m getting psyched for next week’s draft.
While we’re waiting for that to happen, the Padres seek yet another series victory in Thursday evening’s finale. Greg Maddux looks to turn things around against the eminently beatable Shawn Chacon. Game starts at 4:05 p.m. PT; you know the rest…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 31, 2007 at 8:13 am
Will Latos finish the year out in Fort Wayne or will they wait untill Eugene’s season starts in mid June?
May 31, 2007 at 8:29 am
PF … I noticed … btw, have I said THANKS for the PPR? If not, THANKS!!!!
1 … what I’ve read so far (which was mainly an interview with Fuson yesterday at madfriars.com) is he will start at Eugene … I can’t buy tix to Opening Day until June 1st … ah, that’s TOMORROW … I’ll be on the phone at this time tomorrow buying those tickets! Road Trip? Let me know … I don’t have a lot of space, and I’m an hour north of Eugene, but if anyone wants to lay a sleeping bag on the floor, lemme know …
May 31, 2007 at 8:31 am
here’s my shot at the padres 2011 roster
Antonellie 2B
Hunter CF
A-Gon 1B
Huffman RF
Headly LF
Kouz 3B
Wooten C
Chang SS (still no good SS in the system)
Peavy
Young
Latos
Leblanc
Ayala
May 31, 2007 at 8:40 am
Lynch how far of a drive is it from Portland to Eugene? Im going to a conference in Portland this July and would love to catch an Emeralds game.
May 31, 2007 at 8:57 am
Do the padres have any shot at drafting Nick Noonan or will he be off the board way before the 23rd pick?
May 31, 2007 at 8:58 am
Steve, no Carrillo? He’s having TJ? Look up his stats, he might even be a better pitcher than Latos… TJ pitchers usually come back every bit as strong as before they were injured. Don’t sleep on Carrillo…
May 31, 2007 at 8:58 am
- that’s not supposed to be “?” after “He having TJ”
May 31, 2007 at 9:02 am
Re: 6&7 I don’t see him being durable enough to consistenly perform in the majors.
May 31, 2007 at 9:06 am
That preamble, maybe I notice it maybe I didn’t. Keep wondering….
Carillo is one I’m curious about. I hope he comes back strong next year.
Having Latos in the fold is awesome, though, especially after the disappointments of Stauffer, Tankersley, Germano, Martinez and others. Now, if only Matt Bush would convert to pitching then, maybe the Padres get something out of that pick.
May 31, 2007 at 9:07 am
The Padres have a good shot at drafting with Noonan w/ the 23rd pick, and probably the 40th, and maybe even the 46th…
There’s questions about whether he can stay at SS. If he can stick at SS then he’d be a nice pick where ever the Padres feel they want to pick him (I trust their judgement - especially Fuson’s). However, if he can’t play SS then I’m not sure he’s a 1st round guy.
May 31, 2007 at 9:13 am
8.
I think all the “durability” issues he’s had so far stemmed from his elbow and that should be taken care of by the TJ surgery. Other than his elbow I don’t remember him giving any reason to believe he would have durability concerns. In fact he was overpitched in college and that probably was the cause of his issues. I still think he can be what we had hoped.
May 31, 2007 at 9:13 am
Re: 10 his arm is the only thing that would keep him from playing short in the majors yeah? Do you think the padres are even looksing at him since he is a home town kid?
With the signing of Latos do you think the pads will look more to drafting a position player with the 23rd pick?
May 31, 2007 at 9:13 am
Hi, all. New to this from Sacramento.
3. Wooten? I don’t know him. On the subject of catchers, what happened to Kody Valverde?
One other question…I saw that the Wizards had Jodam Rivera pitch an inning. I understand that he’s set to play short at Eugene. Is pitching an option for him?
May 31, 2007 at 9:15 am
Re: 11 I hope so but his small frame scares me and I cant help but wonder if he can take 200 innings a year.
May 31, 2007 at 9:20 am
Re: 13 Wooten is the C for the storm this year, im not sure if he will really be the guy I just plugged him in because he looked to be the best catching prospect to this point. Last year I would have plugged in Hundley but he has struggled this year in San Antonio.
May 31, 2007 at 9:22 am
oops Wooten is with the Missions this year
May 31, 2007 at 9:25 am
#13: Welcome, Mark! Wooten used to play for the Angels:
http://www.baseball-reference......sh01.shtml
He’s a pretty good hitter but he’s 34 years old.
May 31, 2007 at 9:25 am
also Wooten is 35 so you can scratch him from my lineup
May 31, 2007 at 9:29 am
yeah I forgot to check his age, I assumed anyone in AA would not be in thier 30’s.
May 31, 2007 at 9:41 am
#19: OTOH, he does have power from the right side and a World Series ring. Could come in handy at some point…
May 31, 2007 at 10:12 am
Re: #12,
Repeat after me:
Best Available
Best Available
Best Available
Best Available
Best Available
Seriously though, Carrillo is still a prospect, but he’s also a valid case study. He projects to be a solid #2-3 starter (probably #3). At the beginning of 2006, the Padres thought Carrillo would be entrenched in their big league rotation by now (maybe: Peavey, Young, Maddux, Hensley, Carrillo). However, his injury required that they spend $3-5m on David Wells.
You absolutely have to take the guy you think is most likely to be successful. Injuries happen. Trades happen. Guys stop working hard (see: Ruben Rivera). Guys get a mental block (see: Rick Ankiel). You don’t NOT take Noonan because of Antonelli and you don’t NOT take James Simmons (or any other pitcher) because of Matt Latos. You take the guy you think is best.
(I hope that didn’t come across preachy.)
May 31, 2007 at 10:24 am
Preach on, Friar Peter!
May 31, 2007 at 10:27 am
Re: 21 I hope the pads do that this year I guess we will see.
May 31, 2007 at 10:28 am
Don’t be surprised if Wooten is a September call up and wins a crucial 13 inning game with a base hit.
May 31, 2007 at 10:34 am
21: Would Simmons qualify as best-available player at 23? He looks like Ian Kennedy to me, or any of the college RH pitchability guys we’ve taken the last several years. Low 90s fastball, good command. That describes 80% of our minor league pitchers. I’d rather pop Burgess or somebody with some tools instead of a safe kid like Simmons.
May 31, 2007 at 10:36 am
Peter, to your point in #6, I saw Dodger prospect Michael Megrew pitch Saturday night (he’s recently had TJ), and he had very little velocity. In fact, I think he broke 88 once or twice. For someone who’s a 6′6″ lefty, he should be throwing more effectively than that.
Megrew is likely more the exception than the rule, but it is out there.
I must admit that I was surprised the Friars didn’t take a quick look at Craig Wilson, irrespective of the fact that he’s been absolutely terrible since the ASB in ‘06. He is a righthanded bat that could stick a glove on his hand and run to left field, at least. That said, hearing Shawn Wooten is still around…wow.
May 31, 2007 at 10:56 am
Hey Geoff, let me know if you plan a road trip up this direction. I’m a big fan of the NWL though I’ll admit when I was living up near Salem, I became a Volcano’s fan..but I wouldn’t mind see what this kid has got. And ignore my comment at KnuckleCurve. I should have looked here first..
May 31, 2007 at 10:59 am
Time to start thinking about midseason trades. It looks like there’s lots of demand out there for good relief pitching (ie Linebrick). Now the question is if any teams match up for a righthanded bat, which is what the Padres really really need. Posing the question to all of you…What right handed outfielders might be available in the next couple months? Off the top of my head: Kearns, Delmon Young, X Nady, Rowand, Emil Brown, Craig Monroe. All those players’ teams are already out of contention or in need of relief help (Phillies and Tigers). Any other ideas out there? The one guy the Padres can dream about is Jermaine Dye, who’s from California and will be a free agent at the end of the year. But is there any chance the White Sox give him up while their still in contention???
May 31, 2007 at 11:03 am
26: Will Carroll of BP says that the success rate for TJ is 85%, with success = “returning to level.”
28: Teams out of contention aren’t going to want Linebrink. They’re going to want a young player they can control for a while. I’m going to keep dreaming about Corey Hart until the iron claw of reality closes completely.
May 31, 2007 at 11:08 am
#2, 27: Google says it’s a 976-mile drive from San Diego to Eugene. Was a time I could take that in a single day, but I’ll probably stop in Sacramento. It’ll be a good warmup for Cooperstown.
May 31, 2007 at 11:08 am
Re 28: Towers is reluctant to part with major league pitching. To the extent he is, and given the overall lack of farm depth, that accordingly limits the team’s option in picking up a right handed outfielder or pretty much anything else of value.
May 31, 2007 at 11:14 am
Interesting Jayson Stark article at ESPN looking at the month of May
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2887921
He gives the Padres some love. Another interesting note from that article is that the Braves are expecting to trade their young catcher, Saltalamachia. Anyone else think the Padres should inquire about him?
May 31, 2007 at 11:16 am
The Yankees and Brewers will probably be the two big players at the deadline looking for relife help with maybe the astros (if they can pull it together) and Detroit also interested.
May 31, 2007 at 11:17 am
Re: 32 what do the pads have that the braves would want?
May 31, 2007 at 11:22 am
34: I honestly have no idea. Their relief corps looks pretty solid, so I’m not sure what they’re deadline needs would be.
Regardless, they are dangling him, so they expect something.
May 31, 2007 at 12:25 pm
Updated Draft Tracker rankings at BA:
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....nk=tracker
They didn’t remove Latos from the list -which is actually cool b/c we see how highly regarded he is (ranked #25).
Of the guys they list at 23 and beyond, I’m actually REALLY excited about a lot of the guys that are “Lip of the cup.”
***
This is my writeup of Simmons:
RHP James Simmons (UC Riverside)
2.08 ERA, 10-2 in 108.1 IP, 87 H, 39 R, 25 ER, 13 BB, 107 SO, 7 HR, .214 BAA
Riverside, Calif., is in the heart of the High-A California League. And the UC Riverside home park, Riverside Sports Complex, faces northwest. Part of what makes the Cal League so hitter-friendly are the winds of the high desert area. I bring this up because Simmons has allowed 7 HR and 13 doubles and it doesn’t bother me. The one red flag I see is the disparity between runs allowed and earned runs. Did Simmons’ defense let him down, or did he give up a bunch of runs after meaningless errors? All in all, I like this kid; his walk rate is strikingly good and his BAA is equally impressive.
***
If we could get him at 40 I’d LOVE it, but I wouldn’t scream if we drafted him a 23 as BA predicted 2-3 weeks ago.
May 31, 2007 at 12:28 pm
I’d give up Hunter for Salty…
May 31, 2007 at 12:35 pm
Somebody mentioned Alex Rios of the Blue Jays.
If not him, anybody else in the Toronto system that the Padres can trade for?
They need pitching. Hensley/Germano could be part of that trade.
May 31, 2007 at 12:40 pm
37: Wow. I’ve always heard that Cedric is the stud of our farm. Of course, you seem to be better versed in this than I am, but I’m curious why you’d trade Cedric for Salty? I mean this to be in complete honesty with no sense of condecension. Is Saltalamachia that good? I’ve heard positive things about him, but since he’s a Brave, I have no idea how well he projects.
Would anyone else do Cedric for Salty? I’m legitimately curious about this because I basically thought that Cedric was pretty much untouchable.
May 31, 2007 at 12:42 pm
34,35 - Another starting Arm is what the Braves could use. Davies is so inconsistent, and who knows about Lance Cormier who’s coming off the DL and getting his first start June 5th. So something to solidify the back end of the rotation would be nice.
May 31, 2007 at 12:51 pm
BA rated Cedric #1, I had Carrillo in front of him… but at best he profiles as Derek Jeter’s bat in CF though there are questions about his range and that he may need to move to LF. Derek Jeter’s bat in LF would still play, but again, that’s “at best.” He’s more likely to become Shannon Stewart or Stewart-lite in LF…
Salty is EASILY the best catching prospect in the minors or without a starting gig in the majors. He’s a switch-hitting guy w/ a cannon-arm and tons of power. BA called him the 36th best prospect in baseball this past offseason.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....63445.html
I love Hunter, but I’d deal him for Salty.
May 31, 2007 at 12:55 pm
#38: I would love to see Rios come here, but I imagine he’ll cost a lot assuming he’s even available.
#39: I’d give Hunter for Salty. Coming into ‘06, BA had Salty ranked as the Braves #1 prospect.
#40: We’ve got some guys who fit that description…
May 31, 2007 at 12:58 pm
40: Thanks for clarifying thier need.
42: Thans for explaining that. I had no idea Salty was that good. We should definitely jump all over him if we have the chance.
I also read somewhere that the Braves needed a utility infielder.
What about something like Germano/Hensley & Robles for Salty?
I’d rather deal Blum, but Shuherholz isn’t an idiot.
May 31, 2007 at 1:04 pm
XX is saying we got the Right handed bat we’ve been looking for in a waiver wire pick up from the A’s. Get ready… Brace yourself… it’s… Hiram Bocachica?
Seriously? I’ve never even heard of him. They are also saying a roster move will be made tomorrow to get him on the big league team. Who’s pissed?
May 31, 2007 at 1:13 pm
What? If this is true. No, not Bocachica! Good baseball name but that’s it. It’s an Adam Hyzdu move. Crap. I hope they send Termell down.
There’s gotta be a trade in the work, right?
42: Yeah, I didn’t think Rios would be available but perhaps, the Blue Jays have other players like him in the minors.
May 31, 2007 at 1:16 pm
I just hope they don’t send P-Mac down. I want to see him and what he can do if he plays a little while OG is out.
May 31, 2007 at 1:19 pm
Watching Salty come up as I have (Braves fan if you haven’t guessed) I’d hate to see Salty go, but IF it could shore up some questions for us I wouldn’t be opposed to dealing him.
But with Thorman floundering at the plate 21/1 K/BB rate in his last 90 or so AB’s (I might be a bit off on that #) it might be worth a shot putting him out at 1st even if it’s for Salty’s bat..and the fact he’s never played 1st before could be a problem.
May 31, 2007 at 1:20 pm
#44: Fascinating. Bocachica is a former first-round pick of the Expos who showed up in Sickels’ book for, like, 73 years in a row. He can hit a little and play a variety of positions. He’s certainly not an impact player, but this isn’t a bad gamble:
http://www.thebaseballcube.com.....hica.shtml
Presumably P-Mac or Robles returns to Portland?
May 31, 2007 at 1:22 pm
Re: 37 there is no way the Braves would trade Salty for Hunter. A switch hitting big leauge catcher for a low a prospect? I know Hunter is a stud but there is no way the braves would do that.
May 31, 2007 at 1:23 pm
BTW, the Pads signed another D&F guy yesterday, RHP Jeremy McBryde:
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
I’ll see if I can find more on him…
May 31, 2007 at 1:26 pm
Thanks GY!
Dave Oster from the LE Storm is on the radio right now and just said “the writing is on the wall” and said that he expects Matt Bush to now be converted to a pitcher shortly. Interesting I thought. I just want to get some sort of value from that pick. I wonder if he would translate to starter or closer material. Any ideas?
May 31, 2007 at 1:36 pm
McBryde’s final JC start:
http://www.examiner-enterprise.....rts790.txt
Season stats at Rose State College (Okla.): 76.1 IP, 65 H, 22 BB, 82 SO, 4.01 ERA. No clue what the level of competition is like.
May 31, 2007 at 1:36 pm
Peter with the Latos signing how does your top 10 padres prospects look at the moment.
May 31, 2007 at 1:49 pm
There’s an article on SignonSD that says Bush is “ecstatic” to return to pitching. That makes two good pitching prospects we picked up in the last two days and the draft is still a week away.
May 31, 2007 at 1:52 pm
they asked Trevor why he switched from SS to pitcher and he said “because I was tiered of hitting .190″
If I rember Bush can throw in the mid 90’s but does he have any other big leauge quality pitches?
May 31, 2007 at 1:58 pm
49, You’re right, no way the Braves trade Salty for a Low A guy. If they try and shop Salty they’re going to be looking for someone that can make an impact in the here an now, and maybe a prospect or two as well. Salty is going to come at a price if he’s shopped at all.
May 31, 2007 at 1:58 pm
#54: Link…
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....tbush.html
May 31, 2007 at 2:07 pm
57 … thanks for the link … this is GREAT news!
Reading about Bush being able to throw 90s in high school reminded me of this brief note about Mariners Brandon Morrow … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/bl.....=mlb,34972 … who threw 90 in high school, then up’d it to upper-90s his sophomore year at Cal … not saying that Bush can do that … just that there’s precident
C’mon Matt, do it! I want to see you pitch in Eugene this summer too!
May 31, 2007 at 2:12 pm
58: You gotta wonder how much arm strength Bush has left. When Matt Harrington stopped pitching on a regular rotation his fastball lost 10mph.
May 31, 2007 at 2:15 pm
58 are you in Oregon?
May 31, 2007 at 2:17 pm
Query if changing the preamble is the reason Latos signed?!?
I don’t think we can rule it out.
May 31, 2007 at 2:24 pm
59.
I’m more worried about his accuracy than his arm strength. He made a ton of errors at SS and I have to believe some of those were because of bad throws. I got to believe not throwing off a mound for 3 years is going to take some getting used to and if he can’t locate he’s toast.
May 31, 2007 at 2:27 pm
well he is ultimately starting over again so it will be at least 4 more years before he even sniffs the big leagues.
May 31, 2007 at 2:31 pm
Huge right-handed bat acquired for the outfield:
Padres claim Bocachica off waivers
The San Diego Padres today claimed outfielder Hiram Bocachica off outright waivers from the Oakland Athletics.
http://www.mlb.com/news/press_.....mp;c_id=sd
May 31, 2007 at 2:33 pm
OT: has anyone checked in on George Kottaras? he is hitting .191 with .286 OBP and a .291 SLG. I guess the east coast has been rough on him.
http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....pid=435459
May 31, 2007 at 2:34 pm
63: Nah, he’ll be moving up pretty quickly if he can pitch as well. Probably going to be a potential middle relieve/setup man. I say, definitely, quicker than 4 years if he does well.
I think Joe Nathan was a converted SS and it took him about 2 seasons. Granted, he’s very good but I don’t think it’s starting over for Matt Bush.
Anybody knows how long it took Trevor, Woody, and Santana to convert to pitching?
May 31, 2007 at 2:39 pm
Geoff,
Rather than a stop off in Sacto, maybe I could get you to come to the Bay Area?
May 31, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Nice article about Cust:
http://tinyurl.com/353gbs
May 31, 2007 at 2:57 pm
65: That sucks. I hope he gets better so the Red Sox will still trade with the Padres.
May 31, 2007 at 3:00 pm
Keith Law on teams’ drafting tendencies:
http://tinyurl.com/3xges5
May 31, 2007 at 4:16 pm
60 … yup, Corvallis … see Frappr (http://www.frappr.com/ducksnorts)
4 … I’ve never driven from Portland to Eugene … Eugene is to Corvallis a bit what LA is to SD … other than the Emeralds, I try to minimize my exposure
… back to the question (drive time from Portland to Eugene) … 3 hours max … straight down I-5 … so might be closer to 2 depending on where in “Portland” you are starting … it’s a short 2 hours from PDX (the Portland Airport) to Corvallis (which is ~10 miles off I-5) … and it takes me about an hour to get to Eugene … and I think getting from I-5 to the Eugene ballpark (which is a *classic*) is pretty straight forward …
Road Trip? Meet Up? Opening Day is Sunday, June 24th at 4pm.
The other idea would be 4th of July … it *will* be a sell-out … the fireworks are not *great*, but the ball park and setting are, as I said before, *CLASSIC* … Americana at its FINEST … but I’ll likely be down in San Diego for 4th (a pilgrimage I’ve done the last 2 years as it has coincided with the BP Pizza Feed … hmm … I ping’d the BP guys a month or so ago on that, didn’t get a reply … time to ping again) …
May 31, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Heads-up, Anthony, and anyone else with a BP subscription … another article today looking at the GameDay pitch data … http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6291 … a look at “deceleration as pitches make their way to the plate and pitcher fatigue” … amazing stuff!
June 1, 2007 at 7:07 am
#67: Brian, I think that could be arranged.