Out with the Cards, In with the Reds
Mon, May 14, 2007
by Geoff Young
Do you suppose Phillies fans pine for Justin Germano the way some Padres fans pine for Jack Cust? After Sunday afternoon’s 3-0 victory over the St. Louis Cardinals (recap | box score), in which Germano shut down the defending World Series champions for seven innings and quite possibly earned himself a more permanent spot in the rotation, I would think so.
Germano didn’t impress Cardinals infielder Aaron Miles: “This guy’s a guy you hope to face every time you come to the yard.” Miles apparently has been talking to Albert Pujols about how to diss the opposing pitcher. Suggestion: Maybe learn how to crush the ball on a regular basis first, then start talking trash.
But that’s just me.
After last week’s debacle in Atlanta, it’s great to see the Padres come home and spin two shutouts in three days. Granted, at 15-20, the Cardinals aren’t the same team that won it all last season, but they’re still the defending champs and that counts for something.
Next up are the Cincinnati Reds, who come to town for three games starting Monday night. It’s always fun to watch guys like Adam Dunn and Ken Griffey Jr. This year, we get the added pleasure of seeing outfielder Josh Hamilton, whom the Devil Rays should regret letting go more than the Padres ever will regret parting with Cust.
In case you missed it, Hamilton was taken with the first overall pick in the 1999 draft. Due to injuries and drug problems, he stalled out at A-ball in 2002, then was out of baseball for three years before playing 15 games of short-season ball in 2006.
Taken in the Rule V draft by the Cubs this past winter and promptly traded to Cincinnati, Hamilton is batting .257/.342/.552 in 120 plate appearances so far. (He also has hit twice as many home runs as the Cubs’ Alfonso Soriano, whose price tag is a tad higher than Hamilton’s.)
Life is good at 20-18. It could be better, and we still find things to complain about because, well, that’s what we do. But this Padres team is right about where I expected it to be at this point in the season. The Dodgers are playing better than I thought they would, but we’ve got a long way to go — Brad Penny and Mark Hendrickson can’t keep this up forever.
I love the fact that despite not playing consistently well, the Padres remain right in the thick of things. Unless you believe that Mike Cameron will finish the season hitting .201 with five homers, there’s plenty of reason to think that this team will improve. They still have to do so, of course, but at least the talent is in place.
Did I mention that life is good? Yes, I believe I did.
And now for an extra helping of prospecty goodness, here’s Peter with the PPR:
by Peter Friberg
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
Friday, May 11, 2007
AAA
Craig Stansberry: 4 AB, 1 R, 3 H, 1 RBI; HR
AA
Chase Headley: 3 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB
Nick Hundley: 3 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 2 RBI; 2B, 2 BB
Will Venable: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; BB, SB
Josh Geer: 8.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 SO, 0 HR
High-A
Wade Leblanc: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 3B, 2 SO
Nathaniel Culp: 4.1 IP, 8 H, 7 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO, 1 HR
Ernesto Frieri: 2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
Fuson likes pitchability guys. Geer, Lebanc, and Culp… I’m hoping he goes after some high-upside (read “plus” velocity) guys in this draft.
Saturday, May 12, 2007
AAA
Mike Thompson: 4.1 IP, 9 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 2 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
AA
Chase Headley: 3 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 2 RBI; 2B, BB, SF
Nick Hundley: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 SO
Mike Ekstrom: 6.1 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
High-A
David Freese: 3 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B, 2 BB
Chad Huffman: 3 AB, 3 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB, SO
Kyle Blanks: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 6 RBI; 2 HR, BB, SO
Nic Crosta: 3 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2 2B, BB, SB - Stole home!
Low-A
Aaron Breit: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
Chase Headley is in a serious grove.
Geoff and I had a discussion about Kyle Blanks on Saturday. Then, later that day, Blanks went off… Kyle is hitting .323/.388/.573. Baseball America rated the Padres organization 29th and rated Blanks as the 30th best prospect in the second worst organization in all of baseball. Blanks will turn 21 on September 11and he’s treating High-A as his own personal batting practice — 30th best prospect in the Padres organization… (?)
The Padres have Adrian Gonzalez entrenched at first base now, and they have Kevin Kouzmanoff in his first full season of major-league ball handling third base. And they still have Headley, Huffman, Freese, and the previously mentioned Blanks vying for future playing time at the four corner positions.
Sunday, May 13, 2007
AAA
No notable performances
AA
Sean Thompson: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 SO, 1 HR
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 2 SO, SB
David Freese: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 2 RBI; HR, BB
Chad Huffman: 4 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; HR, BB, SO
Nic Crosta: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 4 SO - ouch!
Matthew Buschman: 3.2 IP, 10 H, 7 R, 7 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1 HR
Low-A
Daryl Jones: 3 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; BB
Andrew Underwood: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 3 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
Ernesto Freiri: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
First, Happy Mothers’ Day to my wife, Becky, the mother of my two boys, and my Mom!
I can’t wait for June 9 — who’s going? [Ed note: We have a meetup scheduled for the doubleheader at Petco Park -- drop me a line if interested. It might be fun to make a road trip up to Elsinore at some point, too; just a thought...]
Daryl Jones took a look at the impending corner-bat logjam (see commentary above for 5/12) and decided to do something about it.
* * *
[Ed note: Over the next two weeks, Peter will be profiling the top hitters and pitchers available in the 2007 draft. He'll cover approximately 10 per day. Enjoy!]
Draft Preview: College Hitters
The following are a collection of collegiate hitters who are draft-eligible. I compiled the list based on Baseball America’s top 50 collegians and a few other players I “found” perusing statistics. BA’s top 50 list is copyrighted, so I removed the ranking order; players are listed alphabetically. Stats are through games of May 13, 2007.
C J.P. Arencibia (Tennessee): .309/.446/.512 with 13 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, and a 30/33 BB/SO ratio — One of many solid collegiate catchers on this list. He has a decent statistical profile, but nothing earth-shattering… He’s a top 50 collegian so he’ll likely go before the end of round 2.
OF Julio Borbon (Tennessee): .322/.340/.462 with 6 2B, 4 3B, 2 HR, and a 3/17 BB/SO ratio — Julio puts everything in play. His on-base skills worry me. Scouts love the tools and Julio is a virtual lock for the first half of the first round, but I worry because he hasn’t produced consistent to his tools… He could be a major “get” for some team, but his statistical profile screams, “Bust!”
OF Corey Brown (Oklahoma St.): .361/.514/.794 with 14 2B, 5 3B, 18 HR, and a 52/51 BB/SO ratio — Like Texas’ Kyle Russell, the high strikeout total suggests an “aluminum bat” swing but combined with the walks suggests Russell Branyan. A latter-round target?
OF Shane Buschini (San Diego): .366/.448/.668 with 18 2B, 2 3B, 13 HR, and a 27/38 BB/SO ratio — Buschini has also gone 9 for 15 in stolen base attempts. He reportedly hit a home run off a nearby rooftop in a recent game (500+ feet). A senior, Buschini won’t be top pick but his power will play if he can make consistent enough contact.
C Mitch Canham (Oregon St.): .352/.478/.593 with 13 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, and a 32/24 BB/SO ratio — Mitch is the starting catcher for the defending National Champion Oregon State Beavers. I haven’t heard much about his defense…
OF Brad Chalk (Clemson): .407/.531/.472 with 8 2B, 0 3B, 0 HR, and a 29/14 BB/SO ratio — Brad has nice on-base skills but zero home runs with aluminum bat indicates a serious power deficiency.
SS Zach Cozart (Mississippi): .318/.390/.464 with 14 2B, 1 3B, 5 HR, and a 22/18 BB/SO ratio — Zach is one of the few collegiate shortstops who’s glove is MLB caliber; but that bat won’t play…
OF Collin DeLome (Lamar): .330/.391/.580 with 15 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR and a 12/36 BB/SO ratio — The doubles and triples intrigue me, but the lack of walks scares me.
OF Grant Desme (Cal Poly): .405/.494/.733 with 17 2B, 1 3B, 15 HR, and a 30/42 BB/SO ratio — SDSU transfer; see scouting report at Minor League Baseball.
C Josh Donaldson (Auburn): .338/.443/.582 with 19 2B, 0 3B, 10 HR, and a 37/27 BB/SO ratio — Josh opened the season with some gaudy statistics but has cooled off since. If he can’t stay at catcher (a lot of people think he’ll move) he’s a lot less valuable. He’ll probably get popped in the first supp or second round.
Thanks, Peter. Good stuff for a Monday morning.
Padres and Reds tonight at Petco. Greg Maddux toes the slab for San Diego. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. PT, so we’ll have the IGD up and running by 6. Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 14, 2007 at 9:00 am
Wow Mike Thompson has gone from 4th/5th starting prospect to real-estate/insurance agent prospect really quickly
May 14, 2007 at 9:16 am
Spent Mother’s Day at the yard and was rewarded with a nice win. Sunday games are a good run for the family, get down there 11ish for free parking, Mom checks out Z-Galleria, then lunch at the Tin Fish, a few beers, well one double pint ($9) is about all I could handle, then off to the Show. Section 307 upper reserve is the SUN section, even a hat, sun screen and sunglasses didn’t keep me from feeling like a baked turkey, and I’m a native. Justine pitched well and the boys got a few runs early and held on. Pads had a ton of LOBs (Dad, what does the L mean on the scoreboard?) as usual and the Card pitcher was having trouble from the start so it looked good, especially when Giles made a great catch in the first inning. One aspect of Petco I enjoy are the views as you walk around. Next time though, its the South side upper reserve in the shape.
May 14, 2007 at 9:22 am
Draft stuff: Mitch Canham has been more impressive defensively this year, but it’s hard to tell if that’s a real improvement or just what scouts say when a catcher is hitting well. They said the same thing about Jeff Clement his junior year, then he turned pro and the chat got more negative. I like his offensive profile, but everybody looks good in college. BA has him in their top 30.
May 14, 2007 at 9:55 am
Why did the Padres have Cust all last season in AAA?
If the guy literally cannot play left field, then why was he in the Padres organization to begin with?
The Padres make some good moves, but I said before that Jack Cust deserves a shot at an everyday job. He is not the normal profile player, but it is hard to argue with production.
May 14, 2007 at 10:09 am
Geoff,
I think Miles was just being honest. I bet Pads hitters rather face some terminal AAA pitcher than Derek Lowe. You missed the second part of his quote, which was something like, “You have to tip your cap to him.”
May 14, 2007 at 10:18 am
5: You’re probably right, but there’s a certain ethos about it. A 246 hitter with a 583 OPS doesn’t talk smack about anybody.
Peter’s Prospect Report: Does Ernesto Freiri sound like a scientist on the Manhattan Project?
May 14, 2007 at 10:34 am
I think that .246 hitter w/ the 583 OPS was thinking, “Hey, I’ll finally be able to get a hit!”
Oops.
May 14, 2007 at 10:42 am
re 7: Mike Cameron, Josh Bard, Geoff Blum, Oscar Robles, and Kevin Kouzmanoff wish they were facing Germano too.
May 14, 2007 at 10:45 am
re: Mitch Canham … I’ve seen him play several times during his career here at Oregon State … and he’s not obviously a pro prospect … ie. he’s not “eye popping” … and I think most college players who will be starters in MLB are “eye popping” at the college level … guys who I’ve seen here who were “eye popping”: Mark Prior, Joe Borchard, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jeff Clement … and not even all of them have made it. I’m just saying that I’d be very disappointed if the Padres draft Mitch Canham as high as BA has him ranked … but mine is a *very* untrained eye …
May 14, 2007 at 10:59 am
9: I believe Canham converted to catching in college. At least he started at OSU as a first baseman, I don’t know if he caught in high school.
It depends on who’s left on the board. Canham would be sort of an Antonelli pick. Good chance to reach the majors, but might not be anything special when he gets there. That could be an okay pick if the higher upside guys are gone by 23, but there are a lot of players I like more.
May 14, 2007 at 11:02 am
Peter and Geoff,
Madfriars had Blanks as the #7 prospect.., so score one for us over Baseball America…:)
http://padres.scout.com/2/622785.html
May 14, 2007 at 11:10 am
5 & 6
You know what? If I’m Germano I freaking love pitching to guys like Aaron Miles instead of David Ekstein. I mean he’s the kind of guy you hope to face everytime you go to the yard isn’t he. Who is Aaron Miles again? What a d-bag!!!
May 14, 2007 at 11:27 am
11: Blanks is still striking out a lot, but those are very good numbers for a 20 year old in High A. He’s obviously happy to be out of Ft. Wayne.
Matt Bush. What are you gonna do? Probably the best K/BB rate of his young career, but no average and absolutely zero power, plus 11 errors.
May 14, 2007 at 11:49 am
13. Blanks has some interesting home-road splits
Home .354/.403/.708
Road .274/.375/.403
throw in the fact that he crushes lefties…438 and hits righties at .282
May 14, 2007 at 11:54 am
Yeah John, I think I had him @ #10… I agree though. BA’s Padre rankings are often confusing.
May 14, 2007 at 12:09 pm
I would say that next few starts for David Wells are ‘make it or break it’. If Wells cannot have quality starts in these next two starts then the Pads should waive him or send Hensley to Portland. The Padres would be foolish to expose Germano on the waiver wire or simply throw him into the Pads bullpen as a long reliever.
May 14, 2007 at 12:16 pm
14 and 15: To be honest, you look at Blanks last year, I have no problem ranking him low. His Ft. Wayne numbers weren’t, to quote LM, eye-popping. A lot of our 2005 and 2006 draftees slotted into that middle range. A RH first baseman has to hit for a ton of power, and for as big as he is he hasn’t done that yet. Still could, Ryan Howard had some mid-400 / low-500 slugging in the early minors. But if he ends the season in Elsinore at 275/350/460, I’d say BA would feel okay about their ranking.
Howard’s page on the Baseball Cube says he weighs 230 pounds. Onboard the space shuttle as it crosses through the ionosphere, maybe.
May 14, 2007 at 12:16 pm
What a fun game yesterday.
#2: Yup, always sit on the 3rd base side of the park during day game. It’s hot on the opposite side, and boy, it got burning around the 7th inning yesterday.
A few observations:
- Germano was doing alright until about his 70th pitch. He started to get hit after that.
- Once again, Adrian Gonzales is amazing. His first two ABs, down 0-2 and managed to run the count full and got hits. He should be in the ASG.
- NOG is a discipline hitter unless it’s first pitch around the strike zone. I felt that he could have waited for a better pitch to hit with the bases loaded.
- Kouzmanoff can play 3rd base. Late in the game, he was going for a sharp hit ball down the line and slipped a bit trying to plant his feet, and managed to still get the ball to beat the runner to first base.
Also, his ABs looked good even if he whiffed at the curveball for his K.
- Al Reyes got nothing. If I were Aaron Miles, I’d love to face Reyes everytime. His commands were terrible and the Padres should have sent him to the shower a lot earlier.
- Greene was reverting back to his old self. He didn’t look like the same hitter that Geoff and I saw in Spring Training. He didn’t look comfortable at the plate at all.
and, lastly,
- seeing Hoffman jogging out to the mound is still an event, and seeing a hitter whiffed at his changeup is still amazing.
May 14, 2007 at 12:29 pm
16: Agreed that Wells is not pulling his weight to be staying in the rotation.
May 14, 2007 at 12:58 pm
TW, there is NO WAY a 19/20 year old in Low-A who hit as well as he did (keep in mind he missed the last month as well) is the 30th best prospect in what is a not-so-great farm system…
If you look at BA’s Prospect Handbook, look at some of the guys they have in front of Kyle. He’s a much better prospect.
May 14, 2007 at 1:06 pm
20: BA also looks at how likely a player is to make the majors, though. He’s athletic for his size but he still has to play 1st. Right-handed first basemen have huge power expectations. 40 dinger expectations. If he’s a 20 HR right-handed first baseman who is going to lose speed as he ages and not be terrific around the bag, that’s not so great. Not saying that’s his ceiling, but if that’s a reasonable projection, then he’s probably not a major league starter. Almost anybody who could play elsewhere on the diamond is going to rank higher.
I do think BA probably stopped paying a lot of attention to the relative rankings after about #12. Ramos over LeBlanc was a surprise to me, so I’m not defending them wholeheartedly. But from 15-30, in a weak system, it’s not that big a deal. In a big pile of C prospects, does it matter who’s 22 and who’s 28?
May 14, 2007 at 1:12 pm
I was at the game yesterday with the wife and the boy. I like to sit in the left field box seats for day games as you’re usually in the shade by the beginning of the game if you’re sitting in the 4th row or above. It was a feat though getting my wife, who considers herself somewhat of a baseball widow during the season, to the game. I argued that since we were camping with the cub scouts last weekend during my birthday, and her birthday is coming up this next weekend (we’re 15 days apart in age), that we could go to the game…of course I had to take her and my mother-in-law out to dinner on Saturday night to seal the deal, but it was worth it.
May 14, 2007 at 2:49 pm
Here’s an AP story on our current favorite ex-Padre … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
May 14, 2007 at 3:29 pm
Anyone want to start a write-in campaign to reverse the Giles brothers in the order? OG, great OBP, no power. NOG, less OBP, better power. Why is NOG leading off?
Mike Cameron is driving me crazy. A couple of games and/or AB’s, he will take an outside pitch to right. Then, like the “pull at all costs” satellite goes overhead, he is back to trying to pull everything, and not doing well. His hits are coming either because, inexplicably, the pitchers give him something middle/in or he gets a dribbler or flair to drop.
KK does seem to be keeping his AB discpline together, has a knack for going to right, but at some point he has got to get some hits, or we need to expand our options at 3B.
KG is struggling. Not sure what it is, but he is still susceptible to the slider down and away but is uncharacteristically missing fastballs. Maybe he is trying to stay back to give himself more time on the sliders which makes him late on the FB’s. I don’t know what it is, but he is looking bad.
Our supply of currently flailing hitters (Cameron, KK and now KG) cannot stay put for us to win that many games. We are basically playing with a five man line up.
Bud should have a rule that any hitter entering a game with an OPS under 600, faced with one of the following situations: runner 3B, less than two outs; runners anywhere else, no outs, they have to bunt. That would at least get some productive outs going. Work on your average with the bases empty, do something productive with guys on.
May 14, 2007 at 5:02 pm
You forgot to add Bard to that list of struggling hitters, not so good when 4 of your 8 regulars all suck at the same time…….really good though that your team keeps its head above water while that is happening.