Maddux Forgets He’s Old, Spins Complete Game Against Reds
Tue, May 15, 2007
by Geoff Young
Vintage Maddux? I didn’t watch enough of Greg Maddux during his prime, but I can’t imgaine him (or anyone else) pitching much better than he did on Monday night against the Reds (recap | box score). How good was The Professor? According to the U-T, Jake Peavy, who charted the game, said that Maddux “missed his location maybe five pitches all night.”
Peavy obviously has a better eye for such things than I do (it is, after all, his job). Reader Didi and I were stationed in Section 300, directly behind home plate, and I only counted one pitch that missed: About 93 or 94 pitches into the night, with Maddux battling Brandon Phillips, Josh Bard set up outside off the plate on a 2-2 count and Maddux missed inside. Phillips swung and fouled the ball straight back.
I was at Petco for Chris Young’s near no-no last September, and with all due respect to Young, I’m pretty certain I’ve never seen a better performance in person than what Maddux did on Monday. He worked ahead in the count all night, froze guys with mid-80s fastballs on the inner half, broke bats, and generally frustrated the heck out of the Reds.
Even when Cincy broke through in the ninth, it did so on a couple of bloop hits. The ball that Ryan Freel struck for a double down the right field line couldn’t have been more perfectly placed. Maddux promptly settled down and finished the job. With runners at second and third and nobody out, he allowed just the one run to score on a sacrifice fly.
If I sound overly effusive in my praise, forgive me. I’ve never seen anyone pitch like that. Ever.
On the offensive side, what happened to the guys who can’t convert with runners in scoring position? Where did they go? Who told Mike Cameron he could knock a two-run triple in the first? Who told Kevin Kouzmanoff that he could start finding green with those line drives he’s been hitting lately instead of leather?
Whatever happened and whoever did it, I’d like to thank them. On a rare night when Adrian Gonzalez, normally the offensive savior, looked completely lost at the plate, it was great to see Cameron, Kouzmanoff, Bard, and Khalil Greene step up and get the job done. Heck, even Maddux put on a bunting clinic.
Get guys on, move ‘em over, bring ‘em in. The Padres did that on Monday, and it netted them seven runs and a victory. More of that approach, and even the most vehement critics of the current squad and/or brain trust will have trouble finding things to complain about.
Winning. It’s not just for breakfast anymore…
by Peter Friberg
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
AAA
Vince Sinisi: 4 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 0 RBI; 2B, 3B
Craig Stansberry: 3 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 5 RBI; 2 HR, SF
Jared Wells: 5.0 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO, 2 HR
AA
Chase Headley: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; SO
Nick Hundley: 4 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2 2B
High-A
Yordany Ramirez: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; SB
Low-A
No notable performances
Commentary:
In 2003 Vince Sinisi was considered a first-round talent, but he slid due to bonus demands. Texas swooped in the second round and signed Sinisi for first-round money: $2,070,000. Since then, Vince Sinisi has done okay, but has not developed the expected power (25 career homers going into 2007). Vince is still just 25 (he’ll turn 26 in November). He’s obviously not a “prospect” anymore, but he might end up being a useful MLB backup…
Speaking of useful MLB backups, Stansberry looks good.
* * *
[Ed note: Over the next two weeks, Peter will be profiling the top hitters and pitchers available in the 2007 draft. He'll cover approximately 10 per day. Enjoy!]
Draft Preview: College Hitters
The following are a collection of collegiate hitters who are draft-eligible. I compiled the list based on Baseball America’s top 50 collegians and a few other players I “found” perusing statistics. BA’s top 50 list is copyrighted, so I removed the ranking order; players are listed alphabetically. Stats are through games of May 13, 2007.
1B/LHP Sean Doolittle (Virginia): .302/.412/.481 with 11 2B, 1 3B, 7 HR, and a 36/19 BB/SO ratio — Nice on-base skills, but not as much power as you’d want to see out of a first baseman. I’m not profiling pitchers here, but he doesn’t strike me (out) as a pitching prospect either…
C Ed Easley (Miss St.): .376/.461/.624 with 12 2B, 0 3B, 12 HR and a 25/22 BB/SO ratio — Solid statistics, it comes down to defense and athleticism…
SS Todd Frazier (Rutgers): .376/.502/.753 with 15 2B, 2 3B, 18 HR, and a 49/44 BB/SO ratio — Frazier will likely move to third base or the outfield as a professional.
OF Ryan Hill (Rutgers): .359/.492/.549 with 9 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, and a 48/24 BB/SO ratio — Ryan did not show much power. But that strikeout to walk ratio is impressive. His draft status will depend a lot on whether or not he can play center field.
SS Josh Horton (North Carolina): .333/.459/.541 with 9 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, and a 41/9 BB/SO ratio — Yes, you read that correctly. Josh has struck out all of 9 times in 183 at-bats. He seems to have pop-gun power, but those on-base skills will probably play (and at shortstop, his glove and on-base skills trump the lack of power). Horton isn’t a first-round guy, but he’ll likely be taken in the first 150 picks…
OF Austin Krum (Dallas Baptist): .348/.449/.599 with 16 2B, 7 3B, 9 HR, and a 40/35 BB/SO ratio — Austin received an invitation to try out with the 2006 U.S.A. National Team so he’s been on the prospect radar screen for a while. His 7 triples jumped out at me. He has also gone 18 for 22 in stolen base attempts. The strikeout total is a tad high but the walk total is nice. He could be a good second- to fourth-round selection.
OF Kellen Kulbacki (James Madison): .397/.532/.893 with 15 2B, 1 3B, 18 HR, and a 50/28 BB/SO ratio — Last year, as a sophomore, Kellen put up similarly ungodly numbers (.464/.568/.943) and people said he needed to do it again. He’s doing it again. He still isn’t projected to be a first-round selection, but with these numbers, and 35 picks in the supplemental round, it is unlikely he’ll still be available when the Devil Rays open the second round. With the Padres’ statistical approach and Kellen’s likely availability in the supplemental round, I almost expect the Padres to draft Kellen.
1B Matt LaPorta (Florida): .423/.579/.853 with 10 2B, 0 3B, 19 HR, and a 41/15 BB/SO ratio — Huge power. LaPorta will likely be taken in the top 20 (Padres draft 23rd). He’s also reportedly smoother defensively than his pre-2007 reputation suggested he could be… (See also January 2006 article at Baseball America)
C Jon Lucroy (Louisiana-Lafayette): .377/.417/.682 with 18 2B, 2 3B, 15 HR, and a 18/27 BB/SO ratio — Lucroy isn’t striking out, but he isn’t walking either… That bat won’t play if he can’t get on base.
3B Matt Mangini (Oklahoma St.): .340/.443/.567 with 13 2B, 2 3B, 9 HR, and a 34/42 BB/SO ratio — Matt is considered one of the better collegiate third base gloves in the draft but he has a bit of an off year with the bat. BA ranks Mangini as the 29th best player in the draft.
Thanks, Peter!
Quick reminder that we’ll be doing a Ducksnorts meetup on Saturday, June 9, at Petco Park. Drop me a line if interested, and we’ll work out the details.
Game 2 of the Padres and Reds tonight starts at 7:05 p.m. PT. We’ll have the IGD up and running by 6. Be here or — nah, there’s no alternative this time. Just be here. 
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 15, 2007 at 8:36 am
Thanks, Geoff. That was a great game to watch.
You are not the only one praising Adrian ‘El Hombre’ Gonzales (despite his off night). Scott Miller of CBS:
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/story/10174857.
May 15, 2007 at 9:00 am
Today’s paper says Matt Latos is demanding $3.5 million to sign.
REACTION!
May 15, 2007 at 9:20 am
#2: He’s nuts, he’s getting bad advice, or both.
May 15, 2007 at 9:22 am
On May 9th, The San Diego Union Tribune ran an update piece on the Matt Latos situation.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
At that time ‘we (the commentators),’ concluded that Latos had to be asking for $2m+. What we didn’t know, is that he was asking for $3.5m…
From today’s San Diego Union Tribune:
Pitcher Matt Latos, the Padres’ 11th-round choice last year, is asking for $3.5 million to sign with the club. By comparison, the Padres’ first pick in the upcoming draft, the 23rd selection, is slotted to get between $1 million and $1.5 million.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
Reviewing what we were talking about back on May 9th:
http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....l#comments
Each of the top 10 picks in the 2006 draft received more than $2 million as did Ian Kennedy (from the Yankees @ 21). And other than Adam Ottavino (from the Cardinals @ #30) each of the top 33 received more than $1m.
Here are the top 5 bonuses (admittedly, some contracts are bigger with bonuses plus salaries) from 2006’s draft:
1. Luke Hochevar: $3.5m
2. Greg Reynolds: $3.25m
3. Evan Longoria: $3.0m
4. Brad Lincoln: $2.75m
5. Brandon Morrow: $2.45m
There is NO WAY Latos can reasonably expect to get more than half of his reported $3.5m asking price.
So if we put all that together and if the Padres are offering $1m+ it’s consistent with what Latos would get in the late 20’s or early 30’s (about where he would probably be selected). If he wants $2m+, he needs to be drafted top 10 - that won’t happen.
I still think Latos has the Padres are over the barrel a bit and that Latos can hold out for something in the $1.5m range. Obviously we do not know exactly what the Padres offer is nor do we know what Latos and his “advisor” are asking for. However, I cannot see a situation where the advisor would recommend holding out for more than $1.5m if the Padres offered it ($1.5m is consistent with a 16-20 pick).
May 15, 2007 at 9:25 am
That was a thing of beauty last night. Maddux: wow. Like Geoff, I doubt I have watched too many better pitching performances. I still remember Jake’s 96 pitch complete game against the DBacks a few years ago, but this was more masterful.
Mike Cameron went to right field. I wish I could track his offensive numbers by field he hit it to, but his numbers to RF have to be great. They keep setting up outside on him, and if he can go that way, he’s great. His knock to left was outer-middle of the plate pitch.
Why does anyone pitck KK a fastball? He is getting better with other pitches, but I would think twice before trying to sneak a first-pitch FB past him.
Hopefully the woeful bottom of the order that came through so well last night is not a fluke.
Great game.
May 15, 2007 at 9:35 am
Adrian didn’t look good at the plate last night. Seems the book is to pitch him inside and that worked last night. Had him tied up from what could see on the teli. Whats a guy do when they are busting you inside, move a few inches out, shorten your swing? What would Tony do (not Tony Soprano, Tony Gywn)?
May 15, 2007 at 9:39 am
#2: It’s crazy money.
#6: Yup, that was what we saw at the game, too. The sliders and cut fastballs into his hands were effective. We’ll see how he adjust to this newfound stategy by the pitchers.
May 15, 2007 at 9:40 am
Maddux’s game last night reminded me of Andy Ashby’s 75 pitch gem. I am glad I got to see both in person.
http://www.baseball-reference......7050.shtml
May 15, 2007 at 10:45 am
Latos has the Pads over a barrel, but I don’t think it’s a $2.5MM (the rough delta between the offer and the ask) barrel. If you believe the quotes from SA and KT about the $10MM they have set aside for funding a deep draft, I can’t see sinking 35% of that into Latos.
Oh by the way, you don’t get into a situation like this if your minor league system isn’t nearly 100% empty of pitching prospects. The Pads may need to take their medicine here, but it won’t (can’t) be $3.5MM.
May 15, 2007 at 10:50 am
I’m not sure how reliable the figures that are in the UT are. When we talked with both Latos and his coach they seemed to imply that as long as the money was in the first round range, that was good enough.
About a week ago Latos’ coach pretty much acknowledged that Matt is either a late first round or supplemental first round pick, so I have trouble believing they would suddenly ask for numbers that are in the top 5 of the draft range.
If the Padres offer late first round money Latos should take it, because I have yet to see any draft projections where he is a first round pick. $1.2 to $1.5 is more than a fair offer by the Padres
May 15, 2007 at 10:53 am
#10: Thanks, John. When Peter and I were discussing this the other day, that’s pretty much the range we came up with as well.
May 15, 2007 at 11:00 am
Loewen got a 3.2 mil signing bonus and a major league contract as a draft and follow, but Latos isn’t Loewen. There will only be a couple of bonuses worth more than 3 million this entire draft. Maybe only Price breaks that barrier.
I really doubt Latos gets more than a 1.8 bonus from anybody. He might actually hurt his leverage a bit if he stands on that demand. I don’t think he’s good enough for another team to bite in the first 8-10 rounds if he seems to be serious about his number. He could end up Harrington-ing himself.
May 15, 2007 at 11:06 am
10: He could go 1st round, but in the last 5 picks. There can be a big difference in the bonuses there and the supplemental (sometimes), because teams with supplemental picks sometimes use them on signability guys.
I wondered about the Union-Tribune quote too. It wouldn’t seem to serve either party’s interest to go public with that number. That’s a big enough demand to scare off even the Yankees. Unless Latos is being advised by his community college roommate, it’s hard to see his representatives giving out such a high, hard figure.
May 15, 2007 at 11:17 am
I can’t imagine that offer is anything more than a ploy for more money. Latos and his peeps have got to know the Padres “situation” reguarding minor league pitching and well the farm system in general and they have go t to be trying to drive up the price knowing the team is some what desparate. I hope the Padres don’t try to low ball him because I want him to be a Padre bad but I also think the kid needs to realize who he’s dealing with. Sandy Alderson is not going to let some 18 or 19 year old kid punk him or the organization he runs for very long before he strikes him memory and moves on. The fact that they have some draft money to spend and some clear needs in the farm system I think will work out well for Latos but I think he is pushing his luck if he thinks he is going to get much more than 1.5million. If I remember correctly he wanted 1 million to sign last year right? 1/2 a mill to spend a year playing community college baseball sounds kinda sweet huh? I’d do it!
May 15, 2007 at 11:37 am
#12: Good call, TW. I immediately thought of Harrington as well. Talk about terrible advice…
May 15, 2007 at 12:20 pm
After talking to two-three people, I’m thinking Latos might end up getting something in the $1.6-1.9 range… He is probably THE premeire right-handed arm in the draft (it’s an incredibly weak right-handed pitching draft)… Even so, he wouldn’t get popped in the top 10 (top 10 is $2m+ territory).
May 15, 2007 at 12:32 pm
16: I’d go as far as top 5, but if he was the top RHP he’d definitely go top 10, ahead of Porcello, Brackman, Harvey, Parker, and Aumont. Those guys are in the top 13 prospects according to BA.
It’s not a good year for college righties, but Latos isn’t really a college righty himself.
May 15, 2007 at 12:39 pm
TW, that’s not what my sources are telling me… In fact, most think he’d probably go in the latter half of the 1st.
May 15, 2007 at 12:41 pm
#8: TF, I was at that game too. Both games went through the innings so quickly that we couldn’t help but pay attention to the game and wishing the defense to catch everything.
May 15, 2007 at 12:55 pm
8, 19: I was at Ashby’s game too. How can TF and I snarl at each other with that shared memory?
I remember this feeling of wonder as I put together the inning and the time on the scoreboard clock. I knew he’d been working quick, but it was like he’d hexed the hitters to swing at the first two pitches no matter where they were.
May 15, 2007 at 12:56 pm
18: I can’t see how that works. He’s the premiere RHP in a weak RH draft but he goes in the 15-30 range? The premiere RHP goes after 3 or 4 other RHP, even though he’s not represented by Boras?
May 15, 2007 at 1:25 pm
I heard Grady Fuson on XX today. Carillo had his surgery this morning and everything is fine. He said the ligament was pretty torn up when they got in there, though. He’s projecting 12 - 14 months, or maybe late 2008 for him to be back pitching.
May 15, 2007 at 1:37 pm
22: CC’s desire to avoid the knife is understandable, but I bet he wishes he’d gone for surgery last year when they first brought up the idea.
May 15, 2007 at 1:49 pm
Marcus Giles - I like this guy more than I thought I would. The guy loves playing the game and gives the Padre ballclub a boost. I have never seen anyone break up a double play like this maniac. When an opposing player takes him out he leaps up to his feet and goes over to give the player a high five. Giles has been a much better option than Todd Walker (out of the game) , Counsell (.232) , or Graffanino (.214) .
May 15, 2007 at 2:27 pm
23: According to Grady, he said their medical staff concurred with the conservative treatment to start out. But, when it became apparent that he couldn’t go more than a couple of starts with the pain coming back, the medical staff said to do the TJ surgery.
May 15, 2007 at 2:33 pm
25: What I heard last year was the team recommending surgery and Carrillo dead-set on rehab. But that could be just scuttlebutt.
May 15, 2007 at 2:41 pm
24: I whole-heartedly agree. Marcus has been the best pick-up of the winter (with Jose Cruz Jr.) as a close second.
I love his fire and his defense is fantastic. Great kid to have on the team.
May 15, 2007 at 2:55 pm
Do you guys know how much Max Scherzer is asking for from the D-Backs? He’s a right-handed power pitcher represented by Boras and is a better prospect than Latos. From what I’ve read he’s almost for sure going back into the draft where he’ll likely get picked in the top 10.
May 15, 2007 at 3:17 pm
TW, he’s one of the premiere right-handers, but right-handers are not the premium that other positions are. Furthermore, some of the lefties are considered better as are quite a few of the hitters…
Sherzer (sp?) may also slip in front of him as a right-handed collegiate pitcher.
May 15, 2007 at 3:47 pm
29: BA has had the draft sequence almost exactly right the last three years, and they’ve got multiple RHP in the top 15. That may change, but I would be completely stunned if these two things are both true:
1. Latos is the premiere (or the second-most-premiere) RHP in the draft.
2. Latos doesn’t get picked until the bottom half of the first round.
Even if Scherzer enters, there will be other RHP drafted in the first fifteen. BA is currently projecting him and Porcello to go in the top 10, with Brackman, Harvey, and Parker right behind.
28: Scherzer is said to be asking for a major-league deal with a 3+ million bonus, similar to what Hochevar got last year. The Royals may take him if Arizona doesn’t get a deal done.
May 15, 2007 at 4:12 pm
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....nk=tracker
BA has Andrew Brackman @ #5 & Weathers @ 20 as the top collegiate right-handers in the draft - sorry if I did not clarify col. vs. HS…
May 15, 2007 at 4:16 pm
Latos may be ONE OF the top collegiate RHP in the draft, but he’s not moving into the top 10. PERIOD. End of story. He’s not moving in front of Porcello or Harvey (high schoolers), Brackman, some of the top LHP, or even Sherzer…
And no matter how we look at it, 11 or later is sub-$2m money…
May 15, 2007 at 4:39 pm
Re: 32 the 3.5 is high but he could comand 2+ from the pads because he holds all of the leverage, if the padres want him they’ll have to overpay or he’ll enter the draft and still make millions.
May 15, 2007 at 4:47 pm
Unless Latos can convince the Padres that he can make more from reentering the draft than what the Padres are willing to pay, and the posts by TW and Peter Friberg indicate that Latos is substantially overvaluing himself, he really doesn’t hold that much leverage. In the real world, Latos was an 11th round draft and follow last year, the Padres do not have to be pressured into coming to terms that aren’t reasonable to them. In the perceived world, the Padres pitching prospects are bad and Latos is the savior, or at least that is what he has to make the Padres believe in order to increase his leverage.
If he drops to the lower end of the first round or supplemental as has been speculated, the Padres could also grudge pick him again.
May 15, 2007 at 5:02 pm
Re: 34 what i meant was that the padres have more to gain by signing him then latos does then with signing with the pads.
The by signing Latos the pads get first round talent for an 11th pick.
Unless Latos has a love for San Diego he will not care where he plays just how much he can sign for, so he will either make the pads overpay or he will get drafted by another team.
Im not saying the pads should over pay him im just saying that Latos does not have to play for the pads he has other options, and if the pads want him they will have top pay more than what those other options will.
May 15, 2007 at 5:32 pm
To interrupt the flow of the discussion, what’s the status on Shawn Estes? Would it be worth trying to fit him into the rotation, or would it be better to package him with a reliever to someone like the Mets or the Phillies
May 15, 2007 at 5:51 pm
34: I believe Latos would have to sign a waiver allowing the Padres to redraft him.
36: We should all try to forget that we ever signed Estes. Last year I think GY ran his career numbers. He’s been a pretty bad pitcher. Wouldn’t be much interest in him, maybe a little, but better he play for anybody else than for us.
May 15, 2007 at 5:58 pm
32: Oh, I agree he’s not moving into the top 10. My argument was that he would be in that range if he really was THE premiere RHP in the draft. He’s really only THE premiere RHP from a community college, behind THE premiere HS RHP (and maybe two other HSers), and THE premiere 4 yr college RHP, and THE premiere independent league RHP.
He could be anywhere from the 4th to the 8th RHP taken, depending on what the guys in front of him show in the next 3 weeks and whether he cuts some pre-draft deal with another team.
May 15, 2007 at 6:10 pm
I still the Padres will sign Latos but I’ve revised my opinion of what I think the amount will be. Original opinion: $1.2-1.5m, now: $1.5-1.9m…
We lose the rights on May 31…