first pitch: 7:05 p.m. PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (5-3, 2.89 ERA) vs Jason Marquis (5-1, 2.76 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
In light of the “only 17 percent of runners who steal bases eventually score” mantra we’ve been hearing, I thought it might be instructive to see how that stat is holding up so far this year for the Padres rotation:
| GS | PA | SB | CS | SBR | SBR/SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats are through May 23, 2007, and courtesy of Baseball-Reference. SBR is the number of runs scored by runners who stole a base. | ||||||
| Germano | 3 | 68 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 |
| Hensley | 6 | 138 | 4 | 0 | 3 | .750 |
| Maddux | 9 | 228 | 14 | 0 | 5 | .357 |
| Peavy | 10 | 261 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .200 |
| Wells | 9 | 219 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 |
| Young | 9 | 227 | 15 | 0 | 5 | .333 |
| Starters | 46 | 1141 | 44 | 4 | 19 | .432 |
Bearing in mind the usual small sample caveats, that’s a shade higher than 17%. Reportedly, only six of the 41 runners who stole successfully against Chris Young last season came around to score, which I find amazing. I’d be curious to see what the numbers look like from season to season.
Maybe this year is the aberration. Or maybe 17% is just a figure thrown out there to provide comfort in the face of this team’s complete inability to control the running game.
On an unrelated note, Jason Marquis is hereby invited to turn into a pumpkin.
194 Comments
Just curious, aproximately how many minutes before a game does the IGD become available?
Usually about an hour or so.
New better/worse poll up for Trevor…
I voted worse just because he’s had only 18 appearances in 45 games and he’s a year older.
Geoff, did Kouz’s HR look as impressive in person last night as it did on 4SD?
That was a quick inning.
The radio call on Kouz’s HR was wierd, because Ted wasn’t that excited off the bat.
Masur then quietly chimed in something to the effect of the ball being in the second deck.
Evening folks. Nice start by CY so far. I voted “worse” on the Trevor poll (blasphemy, I know), because he isn’t getting any younger and every time he goes out there, the high-wire act makes me more and more nervous. He’s not automatic anymore, but then again, it’s been some time since he was.
And then again, there’s only one other closer I’d trade him for, and Rivera ain’t available.
#5: It did, but I’ve become conditioned not to expect the ball to leave the yard. Cameron and Khalil also hit shots that off the bat I thought might have a chance.
MattV’s call of the KK HR last night can be heard at mlb.com … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com/multimedia/tp_archive.jsp?c_id=sd … he got excited!
8: Trade Trevor? Bite your tounge! Even if he were on crutches, he has become a San Diego icon like Tony Gwynn and Junior Seau. But I agree with your previous assessment.
Re: 10 – Matt and Mud were both quite fired up. I didn’t realize how hard/far that ball was hit until I saw the replay.
Quick start to the night
10: Thanks Lynch. Your’e right Matt WAS fired up!
Something obvious … a key to making good trades and/or signing free agents is to get the player that is undervalued … ok, ok, nothing new there … the question becomes: who is undervalued?
I think we’re in general agreement that Ichiro! won’t be undervalued when he signs his next contract … same likely true for Andruw … perhaps Torii, but he’s having the classic “contract year” …
What got me thinking along these lines was listening to radio highlights yesterday and hearing Magglio Ordonez’ name … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5889 … now that guy was undervalued …
I’m not seeing any pumpkins … After 1 …
Pitches-strikes – J Marquis 14-10; C Young 8-7.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Marquis 0-1; C Young 1-0.
Batters faced – J Marquis 3; C Young 3.
I like the 8 pitches for CY in the first inning. CY is looking sharp so far.
If CY keeps this up, I might get to bed before 10PM tonight.
Did you see the numbers of the contract signed by Ordonez, Lynch? And then the numbers he put up. He’s being paid like an MVP candidate and has only put up numbers to back that up in this year.
Nice. A-Gone didn’t even slow down.
Wow, Adrian is slow. He made that play very close.
#20: How could he slow down?
CY on pace for 90 pitch, 18 K perfect game.
22: OK. I’m laughing . But, he did manage to make it to 3rd without passing out.
19 … oops, no, i have no idea what his last contract was … guess that woulda been good to know before spouting off about “undervalued” … i only based my “undervalued” opinion on a perception that he’s never been a “big name” but i’ve always thought he put up bigger numbers than his recognition … http://www.baseball-reference.com/o/ordonma01.shtml … wow, OK, $14MM in 2004 and $16MM last season … OK … never mind …
Get him over, get him in. Good play all around. Nice hustle by Adrian for the double, good ABs by Khalil and Bard.
I think it is sooo Bush League for our mascot to be standing behind home plate taunting the opposition’s pitcher. (Didn’t we have this discussion last night?)
25: Yeah, he’s overlooked, but definitely not undervalued.
KK!
Kouz is continuing to hit. Gotta like that.
28 … yeah, overlooked … it’s a good distinction … so, back to the original question … who’s “undervalued”? clearly heath bell was, for example … and we undervalued jason bay …
The guy in the booth, Jeff Tilton, looks a little like another Geoff.
After 2 …
Pitches-strikes – J Marquis 31-20; C Young 20-16.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Marquis 2-2; C Young 1-1.
Batters faced – J Marquis 8; C Young 6.
… perhaps a pumpkin is budding …
Okay, I think we should all final admit: sending Kouz to the minors was a bad suggestion…. could you imagine if he were putting these numbers up in Portland? What a waste….
Undervalued is hard to say for players that aren’t free agents, because there’s no free market to evaluate them. Among free agents, I would say Marcus Giles was undervalued last offseason.
ps. I’m not sure that I ever ‘blogged’ that he should be sent down, but I wouldn’t have been upset if he had been….
34: If he had been a Storm last Friday night, they probably would have won 50-0!
37: no kidding, the line would have been like 6 for 7 with 10 rbi’s and three dingers…
CY slipping, his projected 18 K perfect game now looking like 96 pitches instead of 90. The bum.
39: Yeah! Let’s trade him!
I’d like to go on record right now and apologize for a comment I made about a month ago about Kouz…saying that we should sign Nevin because even Nevin could hit .140 and play 3B.
I’m sorry… I’m very, very sorry…
41: All is forgiven, my son. Now go say 30 hail Tony’s.
OMG. Thank you, Petco Park.
Through 4, a Cub has not reached base. Interesting.
Why are they having Adrian showing bunt?
Hmm. Young keeps this up, I may have to leave the office, go home and watch. I assume Matt and Mud have already made mention of things several times, in blatant fashion?
46: Stu, nobody should be ‘at the office’ this late and especially during a Padre game.
45: I believe that that was Adrian’s way of ‘taking a pitch’ since the first AB had only one pitch.
48: OK, I’ll buy that for a dollar.
Thru 4 ….
Pitches-strikes – J Marquis 48-31; C Young 44-33.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Marquis 6-3; C Young 2-4.
Batters faced – J Marquis 14; C Young 12.
That was a golf swing.
Way to blow the perfect game Cameron.
47 – it’s self-inflicted. I should have been out of here hours ago. Fortunately Ted & Jerry are keeping me up to date.
CY has been devastating up in the zone all night, the one time he goes below the knees it costs him.
Don’t blame Cruz for that one. That hole in right is a nightmare.
Man the Cubs are getting lucky swinging at some questionable pitches. Those swings by Ramirez and Barrett were less than pretty.
OK, now he got burnt up in the zone too.
A little late on this, but does Soriano have the worst outfield instincts of anyone not named Kerry Robinson?
CY is getting hit pretty hard. The two doubles and the three outs in the fourth.
Well, CY did pretty good getting out of that one.
Pads offense needs to come alive and pick him up.
But never fear, Kouz is coming to the plate!
Geoff, a little off topic for the moment: For the next Annual could you add an index?
I’d love to see them walk CY!
Damn, that slider was in the other batter’s box!
Another one!
That’s some pitching
WOW…that was damn impressive…
That was some nice pitching!
YES
Holy smokes, that was a fine display of pitching. CY fans the side in order after the leadoff triple to Soriano.
Let’s get some runs now boys…
Amazing sequence by CY!
wow dude. Ted just said CY “pulled a Peavy”, with 10 Ks. awesome. although “pulling a Peavy” does sound a little odd.
#62: Thanks for the suggestion, TD. I will add it to my “wish list” for sure…
That Chris Young guy can pitch a little.
“Pulling a Peavy” leads to a “Happy Ending.”
76: that’s inappropriate…
Cubs are pressing for runs; they really expanded the zone, but that was great the way CY and Bard took advantage of it.
73: Aren’t there laws against that? Does he now have to register?
Off topic, Lou does not look so good. Either he has enjoyed some hard living or this job is taking a toll on him.
Crudge is not looking so hot anymore. We need to get some P-Mac action back up here….
Excellent, I see that negative reinforcement still works from time to time.
Are the Padres hitters aware they are facing Jason Marquis? Who, you know, sucks? Ok, so it looks like he’s been ok this year, but that’s an illusion since he’s striking out 4.45 batters per nine and has a .200 BABIP.
82: every night the Padres are facing cy young combined with Roger Clemens, combined with Nolan Ryan, combined with Randy Johnson….
77: Wah.
80: Lou has always had the 2 days before I’m committed to rehab look.
82: Or Sean Marshall last night?
84: not complaining…it was funny….
and hasn’t Lou already done rehab once?
80: I’d say both, having come up as a Cub’s fan my entire childhood (grew up in Des Moines first watching the Iowa Oaks and then the Iowa Cubs and then living in N. Chicago). The Cubs Skippers have always been under a lot of pressure.
Whoever had bottom of the 6th in the “Bad News Bears reference” pool, collect your winnings. I have top of the 8th for the Caddyshack reference.
How have the Padres struck out 5 times in 6 innings against someone like Marquis? I don’t mind K’s if they’re accompanied by power or patience or something redeeming, but, uh, they haven’t been at all.
I think it’s time to drop Greene back down the order. This .227/.263 line is just not going to cut it.
Jerry just dropped a good one. Ted was telling a story about Tony Gwynn Jr. coming to town and how this makes him feel old, since he knew Jr. when he was a baby. Jerry commented “We knew him before he was born!”
I’ll let y’all mull that one over for a second.
And regarding the action on the field, some Padre please get a hit.
86: Gotcha.
Don’t know if he’s been to rehab, but he’s always had that puffy, veiny face. He looked like a heart attack when he challenged Dibble to a fight in the Reds clubhouse 15 years ago.
Ugh. Khalil has not done well this series.
Welcome to Petco Cliff Floyd……lol
haha, welcome to Petco!
43: Ditto again!
Thanks again, Petco!
58: Soriano not only has terrible instincts as an outfielder (or infielder), but he’s lazy.
I sat in the first few rows last season in left field for a Padres at Nationals game last season. You have to see him up close to believe how bad he is.
THAT was a sweet play…
I never get tired of watching Adrian field his position. Man, his instincts are unreal.
If A-Gone doesn’t go to the All-Star team, hmmm.
Great outing by CY. Time for Kouz to get him the win here, just like last night.
#98: Thanks, Kevin. He looks very confused out there.
93: maybe not with the bat, but he’s saved their ass defensively this series… at least twice
I just realized CY might not be done. If we don’t get to him this inning to hit, he could stay in since he’s only at 93 pitches.
Bard single, Kouz bomb. Got them just where we want them..
I wonder if Tony G. is going to do the ‘color’ when his son’s team comes to town.
OK, you know that wasn’t intentional.
WHY IS BLUM ON DECK?!!?!?!? We have Branyan. Branyan can hit.
109: why is Blum on the team is the real question..
NOOOOOOO, not Silent L!!!!!!!
Looks like the umpire felt bad for Marquis on that 3-0 pitch
111: very clever…
During Kouzy’s 7 game hitting streak, he’s hitting .524/.615/.952.
For the month of May, he’s hitting .356/.421/.644.
Last night Lou came out and the next pitch was a HR….
Whoa, Lou must have looked at the scoreboard and saw Blummer’s average on his way to the mound.
Silent L better redeam himself. I don’t want to jinx this. But, I see a DP on the way.
At least they’re letting Blum bat lefty. He at least has a chance to run into one.
Oh keep him in there, Marquis just needs to find his rythem…
yeah, that’s the ticket
Ted Leitner makes the solid point that bringing in the lefty Ohman to face Blum would be pretty much irrelevant since Blum sucks from both sides of the plate. He then correctly notes that throughout his career Blum has been better lefty.
117: i hope you’re the anti jinx..
The worst words in baseball: “Geoff Blum is announced …”
Blum is the Padres top choice off the bench….wouldn’t most often used player off the bench be more appropiate?
That’s not surprising
#117: Sigh.
once again…why is he on the roster?
117: Hate to say it, ‘told ya so.’
Blum should not be employed in baseball.
He;s Mark Bellhorn with a shorter name..
104: Trust me, you;ll find no bigger Khalil fan than me. His play on Tuesday nite was straight up ridiculous.
Nice job Blum! You should be a starter!
Why the hell does Buddy always use him?
Wow. You would literally be better off sending Maddux up to bunt instead of Blum.
hell
#126: Did you also call the sunrise this morning?
He’s a .230 career pinch-hitter. Hey, Bud Black, this isn’t Manny Mota.
We even had a decent option instead of Silent L there. Branyan can hit; if he doesn’t hit he strikes out, so he’s not going to ground into too many double plays, giving us one more chance to get the lead there.
#130: Or leaving CY in there to do the same. Or pretty much anything, really.
At some point, you have to admit your bad at something and think about another line of work. For Geoff Blum, now is that time.
I would rather see an achy Brian Giles than Blum.
Maybe Buddy was black (pun intended) mailed.
128: In Bellhorn’s defense, he’s had seasons where he was actually good.
To be honest this whole thing is Towers fault…..for some reason managers love Blum and will always use him too often….just don’t sign the guy in the first place.
Robles is better defensively anyway.
They should be able to get 2 IP out of Claw tonight if they need them
Blum is a .250 career hitter. According to baseballreference.com, the league average for his career is .270.
Geoff Blum is terrible at his job.
Good teams don’t have Geoff Blum as their first bat off the bench. I think it’s time for them to trade some of their bullpen surplus for some bench bats (or at least pick up Craig WWE Wilson).
Hey, Richard, Blum had a season where he was good. 2002, 368 AB, 109 OPS+. Since then, he’s gone 72, 61, 74, 73 63 OPS+.
Again, we have Branyan sitting there gnawing at the bit to get up to the plate and he *can* hit. WTF?
129: agreed… tip o’ the hat (if i had a hat).
Time to get this sweep done
143: I said “seasons.”
The Padres have had three hitters post below replacement level numbers this year: McAnulty (10 PA), Robles (20 PA), Blum (60 PA).
146: Ah, the ‘ole plural form. Hmm. Well, back in ‘99, he had a tasty 103 OPS+ in 133 AB.
Help me out, I’m usually pretty with it when it comes to the nicknames around here, but I missed the day Blum became Silent L. Could someone enlighten me so I can take my loathing of him to the next level?
147: Adjusted for park, I know McAnulty is above replacement and believe it or not, Blum probably is, too.
149: Blum minus the L=you guessed it.
149: I think it happened tonight.
148: Good ol’ small sample size…
Thru 8 …
Pitches-strikes – J Marquis 94-55; B Howry 12-7; C Young 93-62; C Meredith 11-9.
Ground balls-fly balls – J Marquis 12-4; B Howry 0-3; C Young 5-6; C Meredith 2-1.
Batters faced – J Marquis 27; B Howry 3; C Young 25; C Meredith 4.
… hmm, didn’t miss much, did I?
Thanks TD, that should have been obvious…
149: I’m new, but considering how he’s (not) been hitting, there is no ‘L’
152: I can’t remember who tagged him with that moniker, but it was a couple of weeks ago. May have been Lynch.
Padres.com poll asks: What Padres player has improved the most in May?
21 people voted Geoff Blum. He must have a large family.
158: Those are the same people that emphatically follow American Idol and voted for that kid with the messed up hair.
Got AB by Lee, darn it…
I hardly ever curse in here. But, shit that sucks.
Nice throw, NOG.
God damnit San Diego, c’mon.
If Marcus didn’t have to throw over the runner, that might have been an out.
Oh, this is so not good with bases loaded and no outs.
And it just keeps getting better. Who gave instructions to hit the self-destruct button?
I sincerely hope they can pull this out, but it does not look good thus far.
If we can keep this to 1 or 2, we do get Dempster…
Holy shit! The play at the plate!
Should Meredith opened the inning? It seems lately that once he throws more than 10-12 pitches that he becomes much more hittable.
KK did a good job with that.
That was a tailored DP; KK had big eyes and was thinking about the DP ahead of making the play
mlbTV completely locked up, but at least they’re “sorry for the inconvenience”… great. How bad is it?
157 … not me … but I am the one trying to get folks to reply to Corey Brocks blog at mlblogs.com about Blum … go read this is you want to get outraged … http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/coreybrock/2007/05/quarter_grades.html#comments … just try to not get personal about it … I’d like to think Corey can carry our message (of distaste for Mr Blum’s bat) inside the Padres organization …
That sucked. Oh well, at least we won another series.
That’s it folks. Let’s get the Brewers
All right, Richard, what was the Padres’ BABIP for the series? I bet it was pretty horrible.
Fate was in our own hands and we couldn’t convert.
Our play in May has still been encouraging and we still won the series. You gotta believe that Russel Martin can’t keep driving the Dodgers all day and when he falters, we’ll take over first.
132: Yes, yes I did. And I’m predicting another one tommorow.
Thanks…. have a great one Padre fans!
Down on the farm … Sean Thompson not so good tonight … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_05_24_spraax_sanaax_1 … but Chase is them man (2-for-4 with a 2B) …
We don’t do the sweep thing and we don’t do the get into first place thing.
I know I rant about Petco, but the AB’s we are having wouldn’t produce anything in Texas or Philly. Frustrating.
I know he is with Boston, but I want Mags back.
Cedric responsible for 6 outs (0-for-5 with a GIDP) on a night when a hit or 2 from him might have been the difference between a loss and a win … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_05_24_ftwafx_cliafx_1
ACK!!!
It’s going to be tough winning games with only 4-6 hits every night. As good as Cammy and Kouz have been in May, it has coincided with down turns by almost everyone else outside of NOG. And I am sorry, Adrian needs to be batting third every night. At least he has a better chance of hitting that key single with a runner in scoring position.
Off topic, but I’m sorry, I cannot forgive people that made me read post after post about getting a replacement 3B before Kouz even had 100 ABs (Edwin Encarnacion, Phil Nevin, really people?). I mean I’m impatient as the next guy, but that was just incredibly annoying. Especially considering that a big reason we got Adrian was because the Rangers didn’t give him enough ABs to see how good he was. If you think this post is directed at you specifically, it isn’t, unless you’re Geoff Blum and you were saying those things to Kory the other night, because I hate you, though it’s probably Buddy’s fault for insisting on playing you (Did he promise it to Boch as a parting gift or something?)
McAnulty should be on this Padres roster right now ! It is absolutely ridiculous that the Pads carry Blum AND Robles. Sledge’s bat is slow as molasses right now. I don’t want a replay of the Cust disaster and have the Pads move McAnulty before he gets at least 150 at bats – Wonder how many at bats (30 years old) Sledge gets batting at .180-.200 clip ?
GEOFF, you are rarely wrong, but you might want to correct your blog post regarding stolen bases scoring. It is NOT “17% of successful base stealers score runs”. It IS “17% of successful base stealers score runs that they otherwise would not have if they did not steal the base”.
The manifestation of this statistic shows itself all the time. It happened in Wednesday’s game. A Cub runner on first stole second base. It got to two outs and he was still on second. Mark DeRosa followed with a double to the LCF wall which scored the runner. The runner would have scored even if he hadn’t stolen second base, b/c of how deep the ball was hit, the speed of the runner, and b/c he was running on contact with two outs.
Hope this clears things up for you.
#188: Thanks, TF. You may be right, and that would make a bit more sense. Two issues I have:
1. The article in question doesn’t make this clear.
2. It’s impossible to know what would have happened had the runner not stolen the base. The conditions would not have been the same, and so pitch sequence, etc., might have changed as a result. In other words, we cannot assume that DeRosa would have hit a double to the wall if the Cubs runner had been on first rather than second.
I guess my main point is that I remain skeptical of Maddux’s contention.
Re 2: We can only go with what we know and what actually happened, and I don’t think it is impossible to estimate, particularly since pitchers (and particularly guys like Maddux and Young and Peavy) do not tend to change their pitch sequences with a runner on first as opposed to a runner on second. The only thing that we can be certain that changes is the sign sequence from the catcher, which needs to be changed so that sign stealing isn’t an issue.
I guess we can agree to disagree, because I think it is fair to assume that DeRosa would have hit a double to the wall with a runner on first or on second or third or even bases empty, in that situation, with two outs.
Feel free to remain skeptical, but if you are doubting the Professor, you’ve put yourself in a tough spot.
Then maybe what I really need is clarification on what Maddux was actually talking about and what kind of sample he was using. Either that or a good swift kick in the rear.
Re 189, part 1. All I needed to see on that article was the byline of “Corey Brock”. Sorry, that guy has demonstrated so far that he has no clue how to think or write about baseball, so I am not surprised he could not clear that up. Let’s hope he gets better, or even better that MLB or the Padres replace him with someone from the comments section here, like Tom Waits or lynchmob or any one of the great commentors here.
Intending no disrespect to our commentors, I disagree. I’ve enjoyed Corey’s work so far. He’s still learning about the team, but his mailbags are quite good.
Incidentally, here’s further evidence to support your theory about Maddux’s stat:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20070520-9999-lz1s20padres.html
So it looks like I’ll have to recalculate everything or just let it go. Given that I’m not entirely comfortable with the assumption that changing conditions don’t affect future decisions and results, I think I’ll do the latter and defer to the future HOFer. It still seems “wrong” to me, but how many games have I won in the big leagues?
Fair enough on Corey Brock. We can agree to disagree. BTW, I’ve read the mailbags and have not been impressed at all. If there is one thing that can make a guy like Brock look better, it is having to answer a question from the knee jerk, chicken-little know nothings that infect the padres.com message board. Even there, he hasn’t been that good.
Take for example the Jake Peavy for Cy Young question from the May 14 mailbag. Okay, that is a softball if I ever heard one, and Brock starts off fine with reciting Jake’s numbers. But then he blows it by making a straw man argument – identifying as challengers the hot starters who will most certainly NOT be there in the end – except for maybe Brad Penny, who always has had Cy Young quality stuff. He completely ignores legitimate Cy Young threats like Roy Oswalt and John Smoltz.
The rest of the questions go downhill from there – typically, one guy making a silly suggestion based only on what has happened to X point in the season, and Corey shoots it down. Fish in a barrel stuff doesn’t impress me.
Then again, I guess I should be happy that Brock is a step above the padres.com poster mentality. Still, he makes me miss Lyle Spencer.