IGD: Padres vs Cubs (24 May 07)
Thu, May 24, 2007
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:05 p.m. PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (5-3, 2.89 ERA) vs Jason Marquis (5-1, 2.76 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
In light of the “only 17 percent of runners who steal bases eventually score” mantra we’ve been hearing, I thought it might be instructive to see how that stat is holding up so far this year for the Padres rotation:
| GS | PA | SB | CS | SBR | SBR/SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats are through May 23, 2007, and courtesy of Baseball-Reference. SBR is the number of runs scored by runners who stole a base. | ||||||
| Germano | 3 | 68 | 1 | 1 | 0 | .000 |
| Hensley | 6 | 138 | 4 | 0 | 3 | .750 |
| Maddux | 9 | 228 | 14 | 0 | 5 | .357 |
| Peavy | 10 | 261 | 5 | 1 | 1 | .200 |
| Wells | 9 | 219 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1.000 |
| Young | 9 | 227 | 15 | 0 | 5 | .333 |
| Starters | 46 | 1141 | 44 | 4 | 19 | .432 |
Bearing in mind the usual small sample caveats, that’s a shade higher than 17%. Reportedly, only six of the 41 runners who stole successfully against Chris Young last season came around to score, which I find amazing. I’d be curious to see what the numbers look like from season to season.
Maybe this year is the aberration. Or maybe 17% is just a figure thrown out there to provide comfort in the face of this team’s complete inability to control the running game.
On an unrelated note, Jason Marquis is hereby invited to turn into a pumpkin.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 24, 2007 at 6:30 pm
Just curious, aproximately how many minutes before a game does the IGD become available?
May 24, 2007 at 6:36 pm
Usually about an hour or so.
May 24, 2007 at 6:48 pm
New better/worse poll up for Trevor…
May 24, 2007 at 7:09 pm
I voted worse just because he’s had only 18 appearances in 45 games and he’s a year older.
May 24, 2007 at 7:10 pm
Geoff, did Kouz’s HR look as impressive in person last night as it did on 4SD?
May 24, 2007 at 7:11 pm
That was a quick inning.
May 24, 2007 at 7:12 pm
The radio call on Kouz’s HR was wierd, because Ted wasn’t that excited off the bat.
Masur then quietly chimed in something to the effect of the ball being in the second deck.
May 24, 2007 at 7:12 pm
Evening folks. Nice start by CY so far. I voted “worse” on the Trevor poll (blasphemy, I know), because he isn’t getting any younger and every time he goes out there, the high-wire act makes me more and more nervous. He’s not automatic anymore, but then again, it’s been some time since he was.
And then again, there’s only one other closer I’d trade him for, and Rivera ain’t available.
May 24, 2007 at 7:13 pm
#5: It did, but I’ve become conditioned not to expect the ball to leave the yard. Cameron and Khalil also hit shots that off the bat I thought might have a chance.
May 24, 2007 at 7:15 pm
MattV’s call of the KK HR last night can be heard at mlb.com … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....sp?c_id=sd … he got excited!
May 24, 2007 at 7:15 pm
8: Trade Trevor? Bite your tounge! Even if he were on crutches, he has become a San Diego icon like Tony Gwynn and Junior Seau. But I agree with your previous assessment.
May 24, 2007 at 7:16 pm
Re: 10 - Matt and Mud were both quite fired up. I didn’t realize how hard/far that ball was hit until I saw the replay.
May 24, 2007 at 7:17 pm
Quick start to the night
May 24, 2007 at 7:19 pm
10: Thanks Lynch. Your’e right Matt WAS fired up!
May 24, 2007 at 7:19 pm
Something obvious … a key to making good trades and/or signing free agents is to get the player that is undervalued … ok, ok, nothing new there … the question becomes: who is undervalued?
I think we’re in general agreement that Ichiro! won’t be undervalued when he signs his next contract … same likely true for Andruw … perhaps Torii, but he’s having the classic “contract year” …
What got me thinking along these lines was listening to radio highlights yesterday and hearing Magglio Ordonez’ name … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/5889 … now that guy was undervalued …
May 24, 2007 at 7:19 pm
I’m not seeing any pumpkins … After 1 …
Pitches-strikes - J Marquis 14-10; C Young 8-7.
Ground balls-fly balls - J Marquis 0-1; C Young 1-0.
Batters faced - J Marquis 3; C Young 3.
May 24, 2007 at 7:21 pm
I like the 8 pitches for CY in the first inning. CY is looking sharp so far.
May 24, 2007 at 7:22 pm
If CY keeps this up, I might get to bed before 10PM tonight.
May 24, 2007 at 7:24 pm
Did you see the numbers of the contract signed by Ordonez, Lynch? And then the numbers he put up. He’s being paid like an MVP candidate and has only put up numbers to back that up in this year.
May 24, 2007 at 7:26 pm
Nice. A-Gone didn’t even slow down.
May 24, 2007 at 7:26 pm
Wow, Adrian is slow. He made that play very close.
May 24, 2007 at 7:26 pm
#20: How could he slow down?
May 24, 2007 at 7:26 pm
CY on pace for 90 pitch, 18 K perfect game.
May 24, 2007 at 7:28 pm
22: OK. I’m laughing . But, he did manage to make it to 3rd without passing out.
May 24, 2007 at 7:30 pm
19 … oops, no, i have no idea what his last contract was … guess that woulda been good to know before spouting off about “undervalued” … i only based my “undervalued” opinion on a perception that he’s never been a “big name” but i’ve always thought he put up bigger numbers than his recognition … http://www.baseball-reference......ma01.shtml … wow, OK, $14MM in 2004 and $16MM last season … OK … never mind …
May 24, 2007 at 7:31 pm
Get him over, get him in. Good play all around. Nice hustle by Adrian for the double, good ABs by Khalil and Bard.
May 24, 2007 at 7:31 pm
I think it is sooo Bush League for our mascot to be standing behind home plate taunting the opposition’s pitcher. (Didn’t we have this discussion last night?)
May 24, 2007 at 7:31 pm
25: Yeah, he’s overlooked, but definitely not undervalued.
May 24, 2007 at 7:32 pm
KK!
May 24, 2007 at 7:32 pm
Kouz is continuing to hit. Gotta like that.
May 24, 2007 at 7:34 pm
28 … yeah, overlooked … it’s a good distinction … so, back to the original question … who’s “undervalued”? clearly heath bell was, for example … and we undervalued jason bay …
May 24, 2007 at 7:35 pm
The guy in the booth, Jeff Tilton, looks a little like another Geoff.
May 24, 2007 at 7:35 pm
After 2 …
Pitches-strikes - J Marquis 31-20; C Young 20-16.
Ground balls-fly balls - J Marquis 2-2; C Young 1-1.
Batters faced - J Marquis 8; C Young 6.
… perhaps a pumpkin is budding …
May 24, 2007 at 7:36 pm
Okay, I think we should all final admit: sending Kouz to the minors was a bad suggestion…. could you imagine if he were putting these numbers up in Portland? What a waste….
May 24, 2007 at 7:38 pm
Undervalued is hard to say for players that aren’t free agents, because there’s no free market to evaluate them. Among free agents, I would say Marcus Giles was undervalued last offseason.
May 24, 2007 at 7:38 pm
ps. I’m not sure that I ever ‘blogged’ that he should be sent down, but I wouldn’t have been upset if he had been….
May 24, 2007 at 7:38 pm
34: If he had been a Storm last Friday night, they probably would have won 50-0!
May 24, 2007 at 7:39 pm
37: no kidding, the line would have been like 6 for 7 with 10 rbi’s and three dingers…
May 24, 2007 at 7:42 pm
CY slipping, his projected 18 K perfect game now looking like 96 pitches instead of 90. The bum.
May 24, 2007 at 7:43 pm
39: Yeah! Let’s trade him!
May 24, 2007 at 7:49 pm
I’d like to go on record right now and apologize for a comment I made about a month ago about Kouz…saying that we should sign Nevin because even Nevin could hit .140 and play 3B.
I’m sorry… I’m very, very sorry…
May 24, 2007 at 7:51 pm
41: All is forgiven, my son. Now go say 30 hail Tony’s.
May 24, 2007 at 7:51 pm
OMG. Thank you, Petco Park.
May 24, 2007 at 7:51 pm
Through 4, a Cub has not reached base. Interesting.
May 24, 2007 at 7:54 pm
Why are they having Adrian showing bunt?
May 24, 2007 at 7:55 pm
Hmm. Young keeps this up, I may have to leave the office, go home and watch. I assume Matt and Mud have already made mention of things several times, in blatant fashion?
May 24, 2007 at 7:57 pm
46: Stu, nobody should be ‘at the office’ this late and especially during a Padre game.
May 24, 2007 at 7:57 pm
45: I believe that that was Adrian’s way of ‘taking a pitch’ since the first AB had only one pitch.
May 24, 2007 at 7:58 pm
48: OK, I’ll buy that for a dollar.
May 24, 2007 at 8:01 pm
Thru 4 ….
Pitches-strikes - J Marquis 48-31; C Young 44-33.
Ground balls-fly balls - J Marquis 6-3; C Young 2-4.
Batters faced - J Marquis 14; C Young 12.
May 24, 2007 at 8:01 pm
That was a golf swing.
May 24, 2007 at 8:02 pm
Way to blow the perfect game Cameron.
May 24, 2007 at 8:02 pm
47 - it’s self-inflicted. I should have been out of here hours ago. Fortunately Ted & Jerry are keeping me up to date.
May 24, 2007 at 8:02 pm
CY has been devastating up in the zone all night, the one time he goes below the knees it costs him.
May 24, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Don’t blame Cruz for that one. That hole in right is a nightmare.
May 24, 2007 at 8:05 pm
Man the Cubs are getting lucky swinging at some questionable pitches. Those swings by Ramirez and Barrett were less than pretty.
May 24, 2007 at 8:05 pm
OK, now he got burnt up in the zone too.
May 24, 2007 at 8:07 pm
A little late on this, but does Soriano have the worst outfield instincts of anyone not named Kerry Robinson?
May 24, 2007 at 8:08 pm
CY is getting hit pretty hard. The two doubles and the three outs in the fourth.
May 24, 2007 at 8:11 pm
Well, CY did pretty good getting out of that one.
May 24, 2007 at 8:12 pm
Pads offense needs to come alive and pick him up.
But never fear, Kouz is coming to the plate!
May 24, 2007 at 8:12 pm
Geoff, a little off topic for the moment: For the next Annual could you add an index?
May 24, 2007 at 8:16 pm
I’d love to see them walk CY!
May 24, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Damn, that slider was in the other batter’s box!
May 24, 2007 at 8:23 pm
Another one!
May 24, 2007 at 8:25 pm
That’s some pitching
May 24, 2007 at 8:26 pm
WOW…that was damn impressive…
May 24, 2007 at 8:26 pm
That was some nice pitching!
May 24, 2007 at 8:26 pm
YES
May 24, 2007 at 8:26 pm
Holy smokes, that was a fine display of pitching. CY fans the side in order after the leadoff triple to Soriano.
May 24, 2007 at 8:26 pm
Let’s get some runs now boys…
May 24, 2007 at 8:26 pm
Amazing sequence by CY!
May 24, 2007 at 8:27 pm
wow dude. Ted just said CY “pulled a Peavy”, with 10 Ks. awesome. although “pulling a Peavy” does sound a little odd.
May 24, 2007 at 8:27 pm
#62: Thanks for the suggestion, TD. I will add it to my “wish list” for sure…
May 24, 2007 at 8:28 pm
That Chris Young guy can pitch a little.
May 24, 2007 at 8:28 pm
“Pulling a Peavy” leads to a “Happy Ending.”
May 24, 2007 at 8:29 pm
76: that’s inappropriate…
May 24, 2007 at 8:29 pm
Cubs are pressing for runs; they really expanded the zone, but that was great the way CY and Bard took advantage of it.
May 24, 2007 at 8:29 pm
73: Aren’t there laws against that? Does he now have to register?
May 24, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Off topic, Lou does not look so good. Either he has enjoyed some hard living or this job is taking a toll on him.
May 24, 2007 at 8:30 pm
Crudge is not looking so hot anymore. We need to get some P-Mac action back up here….
Excellent, I see that negative reinforcement still works from time to time.
May 24, 2007 at 8:31 pm
Are the Padres hitters aware they are facing Jason Marquis? Who, you know, sucks? Ok, so it looks like he’s been ok this year, but that’s an illusion since he’s striking out 4.45 batters per nine and has a .200 BABIP.
May 24, 2007 at 8:32 pm
82: every night the Padres are facing cy young combined with Roger Clemens, combined with Nolan Ryan, combined with Randy Johnson….
May 24, 2007 at 8:32 pm
77: Wah.
80: Lou has always had the 2 days before I’m committed to rehab look.
May 24, 2007 at 8:32 pm
82: Or Sean Marshall last night?
May 24, 2007 at 8:33 pm
84: not complaining…it was funny….
and hasn’t Lou already done rehab once?
May 24, 2007 at 8:34 pm
80: I’d say both, having come up as a Cub’s fan my entire childhood (grew up in Des Moines first watching the Iowa Oaks and then the Iowa Cubs and then living in N. Chicago). The Cubs Skippers have always been under a lot of pressure.
May 24, 2007 at 8:34 pm
Whoever had bottom of the 6th in the “Bad News Bears reference” pool, collect your winnings. I have top of the 8th for the Caddyshack reference.
May 24, 2007 at 8:35 pm
How have the Padres struck out 5 times in 6 innings against someone like Marquis? I don’t mind K’s if they’re accompanied by power or patience or something redeeming, but, uh, they haven’t been at all.
May 24, 2007 at 8:35 pm
I think it’s time to drop Greene back down the order. This .227/.263 line is just not going to cut it.
May 24, 2007 at 8:36 pm
Jerry just dropped a good one. Ted was telling a story about Tony Gwynn Jr. coming to town and how this makes him feel old, since he knew Jr. when he was a baby. Jerry commented “We knew him before he was born!”
I’ll let y’all mull that one over for a second.
And regarding the action on the field, some Padre please get a hit.
May 24, 2007 at 8:37 pm
86: Gotcha.
Don’t know if he’s been to rehab, but he’s always had that puffy, veiny face. He looked like a heart attack when he challenged Dibble to a fight in the Reds clubhouse 15 years ago.
May 24, 2007 at 8:37 pm
Ugh. Khalil has not done well this series.
May 24, 2007 at 8:38 pm
Welcome to Petco Cliff Floyd……lol
May 24, 2007 at 8:38 pm
haha, welcome to Petco!
May 24, 2007 at 8:38 pm
43: Ditto again!
May 24, 2007 at 8:39 pm
Thanks again, Petco!
May 24, 2007 at 8:41 pm
58: Soriano not only has terrible instincts as an outfielder (or infielder), but he’s lazy.
I sat in the first few rows last season in left field for a Padres at Nationals game last season. You have to see him up close to believe how bad he is.
May 24, 2007 at 8:42 pm
THAT was a sweet play…
May 24, 2007 at 8:43 pm
I never get tired of watching Adrian field his position. Man, his instincts are unreal.
May 24, 2007 at 8:43 pm
If A-Gone doesn’t go to the All-Star team, hmmm.
May 24, 2007 at 8:44 pm
Great outing by CY. Time for Kouz to get him the win here, just like last night.
May 24, 2007 at 8:44 pm
#98: Thanks, Kevin. He looks very confused out there.
May 24, 2007 at 8:44 pm
93: maybe not with the bat, but he’s saved their ass defensively this series… at least twice
May 24, 2007 at 8:45 pm
I just realized CY might not be done. If we don’t get to him this inning to hit, he could stay in since he’s only at 93 pitches.
May 24, 2007 at 8:45 pm
Bard single, Kouz bomb. Got them just where we want them..
May 24, 2007 at 8:46 pm
I wonder if Tony G. is going to do the ‘color’ when his son’s team comes to town.
May 24, 2007 at 8:48 pm
OK, you know that wasn’t intentional.
May 24, 2007 at 8:50 pm
WHY IS BLUM ON DECK?!!?!?!? We have Branyan. Branyan can hit.
May 24, 2007 at 8:50 pm
109: why is Blum on the team is the real question..