IGD: Padres @ Pirates (30 May 07)
Wed, May 30, 2007
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 4:05 p.m. PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Chris Young (5-3, 2.70 ERA) vs Paul Maholm (2-6, 5.43 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
As expected, the NL West is turning into a three-team race. Spurred by a suggestion in Tuesday’s IGD that the Padres are unable to dominate sub-.500 teams, I checked to see how they compare in that regard with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks:
| Team | .500+ | sub-.500 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W | L | Pct | W | L | Pct | |
| Stats are through May 29, 2007, and courtesy of Baseball-Reference. | ||||||
| LA | 11 | 9 | .550 | 19 | 12 | .613 |
| SD | 10 | 11 | .476 | 19 | 11 | .633 |
| Ari | 9 | 10 | .474 | 22 | 13 | .629 |
Too close to call. The Padres have a winning record against every losing team they’ve played this season except Pittsburgh (0-1). The bigger problem is that the Dodgers are cleaning up on Arizona (4-1) and San Diego (4-2). Still, this is worth watching.
Another thing that caught my eye this morning was an article in the U-T talking about David Wells‘ lack of run support. Although the Padres haven’t scored very often when Wells takes the mound, to focus on that I think is to miss the point:
| W | L | RS | RA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stats are through May 29, 2007, and courtesy of Baseball-Reference. | ||||
| Peavy | 9 | 2 | 52 | 19 |
| Young | 6 | 4 | 40 | 31 |
| Maddux | 5 | 5 | 41 | 35 |
| Wells | 4 | 6 | 33 | 44 |
| Germano | 3 | 1 | 13 | 7 |
| Hensley | 2 | 4 | 31 | 35 |
Or maybe I’m the one missing the point? Either way, a win on Wednesday would be nice. Go Padres!
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May 30, 2007 at 4:06 pm
NOG didn’t swing at the 1st pitch…..what’s wrong?
May 30, 2007 at 4:15 pm
Okay, last time here, CY pitched a no-no into the 8th, I think… or was it the 7th… either way, it was a dominating performance… let’s have deja vu all over again, shall we??
May 30, 2007 at 4:18 pm
that’s one!
May 30, 2007 at 4:21 pm
Game of inches. Wilson can’t quite snag Cameron’s grounder but he turns Bard’s into a DP. Nice play.
May 30, 2007 at 4:22 pm
for the record, as one who has consistently complained about seeing Cameron in the 3-hole, I like this lineup waaaay better. Gonzalez in the 3-hole and Cameron in the 4-hole makes way more sense. Now then, I’d like to see Kouz higher in the lineup more consistently.
May 30, 2007 at 4:28 pm
why did we trade Bay again? Oh yeah, it was to get that ugh-fella, I mean, OG-fella… dern.
May 30, 2007 at 4:30 pm
Some loud outs against CY in the second.
May 30, 2007 at 4:32 pm
Looks like Young has made the necessary adjustments to compensate for his freakishly low BABIP last year. Have a freakishly low ISO against.
May 30, 2007 at 4:33 pm
P-Mac! I completely missed that he got the start tonight. Nice!
May 30, 2007 at 4:51 pm
Nice CY. I wish we could do that more often.
May 30, 2007 at 5:01 pm
Geoff, see what happens when you talk shit about Khalil’s OBA at Gaslamp Ball :-p
I’m just glad to see his apporach thus far today. Hopefully this sparks a new streak.
In case anyone has missed it, there’s a lengthy discussion at Galsmap Ball today about Khalil Greene and whether or not he’s a bust.
May 30, 2007 at 5:03 pm
That wild pitch eliminated a dangerous double play situation.
May 30, 2007 at 5:04 pm
CY with an RBI!
May 30, 2007 at 5:05 pm
that was nice!
May 30, 2007 at 5:06 pm
bases juiced, let’s get some more!!!
May 30, 2007 at 5:06 pm
Damn, most unlucky error ever. Pittsburgh is greatly lucking out on their misplayed balls this inning.
May 30, 2007 at 5:08 pm
Ugh, Cruz not looking good at the dish tonite.
May 30, 2007 at 5:14 pm
How is this team so bad in bases loaded situations?
May 30, 2007 at 5:14 pm
cruz hasn’t looked good at the dish for a while…
May 30, 2007 at 5:17 pm
53 pitches through 5……. very nice.
May 30, 2007 at 5:26 pm
At least Cruz has only caused 3 outs, I think Bard is up to 5 and counting . . .
May 30, 2007 at 5:27 pm
Bard’s GIDP rate is bad.
May 30, 2007 at 5:29 pm
Is there a stat that tracks how often you GIDP with men on?
May 30, 2007 at 5:31 pm
Nice play KG.
May 30, 2007 at 5:31 pm
re 23: Yes, there is a stat that tracks the percentage of time you hit into a double play per opportunity.
May 30, 2007 at 5:31 pm
25: I’d be intersested to see what that is for the team this year and last year.
May 30, 2007 at 5:41 pm
27: You can see individual numbers if you have a subscription to Baseball Prospectus. I think the worst so far this year has been Geoff Blum. Bard has been bad and could overtake him with tonight’s effort.
May 30, 2007 at 5:48 pm
I think Buddy should let CY go for a complete game. He’s pitching great tonight with a low count going into the 8th.
May 30, 2007 at 5:48 pm
27: Always a stat you love to hear about your “#1″ pinch hitter.
May 30, 2007 at 5:49 pm
11: At the risk of sounding pretentious, I think the level of converstion is a little more elevated here. At least we don’t have anyone so fixated on batting average and RBI.
May 30, 2007 at 5:50 pm
someday, CY or Peavy is going to pitch a no hitter. Then we can get that gorilla off of our backs.
May 30, 2007 at 5:55 pm
questions from a new padre fan…how did the padres get the nickname of the friars and what does silent l mean when you guys refer to blum?
May 30, 2007 at 5:57 pm
32: Padre is Spanish for father or a priest ergo, friar. Remove the l from Blum’s name-self explanitory.
May 30, 2007 at 5:57 pm
blum with silent L= bum
May 30, 2007 at 5:59 pm
ahh, thanks guys
May 30, 2007 at 6:01 pm
Don’t take that intentional walk BS Kouz, make em pay.
May 30, 2007 at 6:02 pm
It may pay off for the Bucs, but why would you walk Bard to go after Kouz?
May 30, 2007 at 6:03 pm
30: The conversation over there did indeed degrade quickly. It’s an interesting debate though, regardless.
May 30, 2007 at 6:03 pm
RE: 33 also the padres logo and mascot is a swining friar
May 30, 2007 at 6:06 pm
#11: LOL. Anything I can do to help…
May 30, 2007 at 6:06 pm
Good opprotunity for Greene right here. I never get a warm fuzzy with only a two run lead.
May 30, 2007 at 6:08 pm
OMG, I need to talk more smack about Khalil!
May 30, 2007 at 6:08 pm
Greene with a GSlam! Sweeeeeet (Eric Cartman voice).
May 30, 2007 at 6:09 pm
THATS MY BOY!!!!
May 30, 2007 at 6:09 pm
Well, that’s a fine how-do-you-do from Khalil to the crowd over at Gaslamp. Nice!
May 30, 2007 at 6:09 pm
Das’ a spicy meata’ball!!!!
May 30, 2007 at 6:10 pm
42: Seriously Geoff, good ammunition for my Gaslamp argument, eh?
May 30, 2007 at 6:10 pm
Boom goes the dynamite.
May 30, 2007 at 6:10 pm
Somebody tell Matty that 7-0 is not a laugher just yet. 30-0 is a laugher!
May 30, 2007 at 6:12 pm
Okay, so I know we should be celebrating right now… and, I haven’t read the stuff at Gaslamp ball, but I must say, that grandslam wouldn’t have occurred had we been down 3-0. My biggest complaint about KG is that I don’t think he’s clutch. Maybe there are some stats that disprove that, but I definitely would be surprised…
May 30, 2007 at 6:15 pm
I didn’t even finish reading it; just sneaking a peak during a break from dinner. KG’s problem is not batting average, it’s getting on base, period; we all know that, right
Hey, Greenie, where did you bury that .349 OBP from ‘04? I don’t buy the “it’s because he hit No. 8″ explanation.
May 30, 2007 at 6:15 pm
2 slams in a week for the Padres? Nice! Let’s hope we can hold the 7-0 lead a little better this time.
May 30, 2007 at 6:22 pm
50: If we were behind 3-0, Khalil would have been facing a good reliever, making it significantly less likely that he would have hit that homer.
May 30, 2007 at 6:22 pm
Latos has been signed. More details later.
May 30, 2007 at 6:23 pm
53: Agreed. Still, do you debate his lack of clutch-ness?
May 30, 2007 at 6:24 pm
50: That’s funny, because I distinctly remember reading an article on Padres.com last year that referred to Khalil as “Even-Keel” Khalil for his skills in the clutch.
Khalil has scored lots of clutch runs this year (he tripled bottom 10 in the first homestand against the Rox and Kouz plated him for the game winner).
Everyone seems to not be clutch whenever they’re struggling.
May 30, 2007 at 6:24 pm
#47: You know it.
#50: Without getting into religious arguments about whether clutch hitting as a skill exists, here are Khalil’s splits for his career:
Late & Close: 412 PA, .247/.312/.451
Overall: 1762 PA, .250/.313/.432
http://www.baseball-reference......=greenkh01
May 30, 2007 at 6:24 pm
54: Woohoo. Day just keeps getting better.
May 30, 2007 at 6:25 pm
I haven’t done the research to know whether KG can hit good pitchers. I know that scribes will plug a guy for being able to hit good pitchers. Don’t know the stats to back it up.
May 30, 2007 at 6:26 pm
54: You’re not kidding? That’s AWESOME! AWESOME! SO FREAKIN’ AWESOME!
What was that you were saying about our highbrow tone? Dang, that feels good.
May 30, 2007 at 6:26 pm
#54: Sweet!
May 30, 2007 at 6:26 pm
57: Got the E-Mail. Thanks, cool beans.
May 30, 2007 at 6:26 pm
54: I’m curios to know how much Latos got us to pay him.
May 30, 2007 at 6:27 pm
Denis and John over at MadFriars have the press release posted.
No terms announced from what I can tell, but Latos is in the fold. That’s a pretty big deal.
May 30, 2007 at 6:28 pm
re 50: it is a bit counter-intuitive, but my understanding when you crunch the numbers, no one is really clutch (regular OPS/BA/whatever vs. “crunch” OPS/BA/whatever); in any given year a bunch of people will look clutch (and a bunch like goats) but it does not carry over year to year (e.g. no one is consistently clutch, year to year). Many players are consistently good or bad year to year, but no one is consistently better in or worse than their norm in tough situations.
May 30, 2007 at 6:28 pm
Nice of Philly and Washington to make our NL West foes earn it.
It never seems like teams roll over for us, ugh.
May 30, 2007 at 6:30 pm
#59: Run into sample issues there. The most PAs Khalil has against any pitcher is 32, against Jason Jennings.
May 30, 2007 at 6:30 pm
56: I don’t remember the article, but I’ll grant you that his disposition should lend itself to consistency, thereby decreasing the likelihood that his nerves would get to him in a crucial situation. On the other hand, I believe - from experience - that pressure situations require increased focus. Others may disagree, that’s just my opinion of what always worked for me.
As for him ’struggling’, I’m still thinking back to last year before he got hurt. The thing is, I definitely have a clouded memory of some really bad strikeouts in clutch situations from last year.
May 30, 2007 at 6:30 pm
That’s fantastic news on Latos. A 7-0 lead and a Latos signing are great things to come home to…
May 30, 2007 at 6:30 pm
66: We’re winning 7-0. That’s as rolling as we get.
May 30, 2007 at 6:31 pm
66: It appears you have spoken too hastily about Philly. It’s 4-3 in the ninth now, with Ryan Howard at the plate.
May 30, 2007 at 6:32 pm
Nice Cammy! Now is starting to become a laugher.
May 30, 2007 at 6:32 pm
And down goes Philly…
May 30, 2007 at 6:32 pm
2 more runs on a cheap double, nice.
How about we continue to swing the bats like this come tomorrow? That would be great.
May 30, 2007 at 6:33 pm
Latos article at MadFriars.com:
http://padres.scout.com/2/647785.html
May 30, 2007 at 6:34 pm
Geez, Bard almost hit that one out to dead center.
May 30, 2007 at 6:35 pm
Looks like CY is going to move 6-3 with a 2.42 era…. Um, not too shabby. I wonder how many times we’ve had two pitches with at least eight decisions and ERA’s both under three (one under 2).
May 30, 2007 at 6:36 pm
I’m giddy like a little Austrian girl picking Edelweiss in the mountains. Where is The Fathers so that I may plant a kiss of reconciliation on him?
May 30, 2007 at 6:37 pm
Nine-run lead. Safe to bring in Hampson…
May 30, 2007 at 6:39 pm
TW, you must know some Austrian girls that I am not aware of
May 30, 2007 at 6:41 pm
#79
That’s why he is on the squad. Every team needs a 9 run lead specialist.
May 30, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Another high note, nobody got ejected tonight with West behind the plate.
May 30, 2007 at 6:42 pm
80: My lawyer has advised me not to speak of any Austrian girls I may or may not know. And when I say girls I mean 18 years and up, ye pervs.
May 30, 2007 at 6:43 pm
Eighth shutout of the season? Wow.
May 30, 2007 at 6:44 pm
Badda bing, badda boom, Betty Boop.
May 30, 2007 at 6:47 pm
Wow, apparently Fox Sports Pittsburgh has never attempted to interview KG before (boring!). Wait, come to think of it, I can’t remember ever hearing KG in an interview either… of course, I’ve been on the East Coast for as long as he’s been a friar, so I’m sure i’ve missed several interviews… .
May 30, 2007 at 6:47 pm
We’ve seen Trevor in 20 out of 50 games played so far this year. Is that a good thing, or bad?
May 30, 2007 at 6:49 pm
Wow - did anyone catch the 30 seconds of silence in the FSN booth? Holy cow, it’s like they thought they were going to commercial and then just had to sit there and swallow air for 30 seconds…. that was a riot.
May 30, 2007 at 7:22 pm
OT: If anyone is remotely into rock music, seeing it live, put Ch. 4 back on. Dennis Morgino(sp) is profiling Casbah owner Tim Mays. (that red shack by the airport). Pretty cool, despite his odd pronunciation of “Casbah.” Mays also promotes shows at bigger venues in the area.
May 30, 2007 at 7:22 pm
I’m so freaking stoked on the Latos signing it’s stupid. I was convinced he was a pipe dream. I wonder what this may or may not mean for the money to be spent on this years draft. Whatever I think this kid is a stud!!!!
May 30, 2007 at 7:27 pm
75 … thanks for link, GY … this is GREAT news … and remember, I gotta think that it’s going to look like we overpaid … I think that’s the nature of a draft-and-follow … Latos could get ‘market value’ by not signing with the Padres, so to sign with the Padres he needed to get above that … well done, Padres!
Wonder where and when he’ll report? Ft. Wayne? … or wait for Eugene Emeralds to start up?
Meanwhile, down on the farm … Will Venable with 3 hits (including a 3B and a 3-run HR, his first of the season) for AA San Antonio … http://www.minorleaguebaseball.....x_spraax_1 … Chase Headley? Ho hum, just 1-for-3 (so far), plus a walk …
May 30, 2007 at 7:35 pm
We’re trying to get in touch with Latos - he agreed to speak with us after he signed so hopefully we will have some more information.
Nothing yet on the final figures, my guess is it was around $2 million - but we will try to tie it down.
91. My bet is he starts in Eugene where they are going to monitor his workload pretty carefully. The main thing was to get him in the organization, instructs and then be agressive where they will start him in 2008.
May 30, 2007 at 7:51 pm
92 … THANKS for checking in here, John … let us know what you learn from Latos! If the’s the Opening Day starter for Eugene, I’ll be there … actually, I’ll probably be there either way … but if he’s the Opening Day starter, I’ll be even more excited
Question: What do you mean by “instructs”? Will he go to Peoria before the Eugene season starts?
I’m not really worried about the absolute ammount they signed Latos for … but I’m worried about this … is it going to impact what they have available for their 2007 draft picks? I think PF has said that KT has said they have a $10 million budget for their 2007 draft picks … don’t know if that includes Latos or not. I guess what I’m asking is this … if they had hoped/planned on signing Latos for $1.5 million and ended up going to $2 million, does that mean $0.5 million less for their 2007 picks … or an extra $0.5 million out of Moores’ pocket? And if $0.5 million less for 2007 picks, does that mean that some of the players they pick will end up being “signability guys” rather than “most talented available”?
May 30, 2007 at 8:07 pm
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/ … BA is saying “the top-rated junior college prospect in this year’s draft, Broward (Fla.) CC righty Matt Latos, signed with the Padres for a bonus reported as slightly more than $1.2 million” … that’s pretty different than saying “he was demanding $3 million”, and also better than “around $2 million” … cool! Maybe he watch CY tonight and said “I want to be part of THAT!”
May 30, 2007 at 8:12 pm
The new BA PHS is out … http://www.baseballamerica.com.....64026.html … no Padres this week (guess you have win a game 30-0 to get noticed) … but George Kottaras made it, under the heading of “NOT SO HOT” … ‘nuf said …
May 30, 2007 at 8:40 pm
I still think the UT’s number is incorrect. Supposedly the opening number was $1.3 and then the team went back three times and increased its offer, somehow I don’t think they reduced it
….but its really no one’s business but the Padres and Latos.
“Instructs” would be in the fall.
Denis had a quick interview with Grady
http://padres.scout.com/2/647821.html
May 30, 2007 at 8:52 pm
This article talks about what KT is doing/thinking re: trades … http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd … a lot of it sounds like much of what’s been said here … yes, KT is looking for a RH LF’er … yes, Sledge sucks vs LHPs … bottom line is a quote from Bud Black … “It’s just not that easy.”
May 30, 2007 at 9:44 pm
5: Your #4 hitter should be a better hitter than your #3 hitter.
May 30, 2007 at 10:42 pm
98 … that’s not obvious … why say that? perhaps it matters what you mean by “better hitter” … i’m inclined to go with with Marsh on this … that I like AG in the #3 spot … gets him up sooner (and hence more often) … and the #4 hitter is better “protection” than who we’ve been trotting out in the #5 spot (and I realize that that is not a very significant factor) …
OT … this from a roto site I check every once in a while …
Jason Schmidt, SP LA
News: Dodgers SP Jason Schmidt worked six shutout innings Wednesday in a rehabilitation assignment for the Inland Empire 66ers of the California League. The 34-year-old right-hander, sidelined since the middle of April with shoulder inflammation, allowed two hits while walking one and striking out seven in the 66ers’ 2-1 victory over the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes. The game was scoreless when Schmidt left.
Analysis: Schmidt, who signed a three-year, $47 million contract during the offseason, threw 71 pitches — 51 for strikes. He is 1-2 with a 7.36 ERA in three starts this year for the Dodgers. He is expected to make a few more rehab starts before returning to the Dodgers rotation. Continue to monitor his progress. When healthy, he is capable of being a Fantasy productive player. His poor stats to open the season are a result of his shoulder injury.
May 30, 2007 at 10:49 pm
I don’t think we can draw any meaningful conclusions about Schmidt’s rehab start without some sort of radar gun readings. If he’s throwing 93-94 again then he is going to be tough, but if he’s still down at 88-89(or worse!) then he’s going to be one ofthe worst pitchers in the division.
May 30, 2007 at 10:58 pm
Heads-up … rotation change got announced yesterday (don’t think I saw any comments about it here) …
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
Jake will pitch Friday … with Germano switching to Saturday … so everyone but Jake gets 5-days rest, Jake only his usual 4 … which I think is *GREAT* …
And I don’t believe for one second this quote from Bud Black …
“It has nothing to do with the Dodgers