How Virtuous Is Patience?
Wed, May 2, 2007
by Geoff Young
I needed a break from the Padres, so I trekked up to Elsinore to watch the Storm instead on Tuesday. I saw a good game, but it sounds like I missed an even better one (recap | box score).
Although it’s hard to offer meaningful commentary on a game I didn’t see, I’m glad to note that Chris Young made it through eight innings on just 106 pitches. We could use more of those performances from him.
It’s also great that Kevin Kouzmanoff knocked a triple. He needed a big hit in the worst way. While driving back from Elsinore, I heard Coach John Kentera on the radio talking about Kouz’s struggles and how former manager Bruce Bochy wasn’t always real patient with young players.
We’ve looked pretty closely at Bochy’s preference for veteran hitters, but the current situation raises another set of questions: How will Bud Black respond to this particular challenge? And what, if anything, will Black’s decision tell us about his managerial style?
Without passing judgment one way or another, it will be interesting to see how long Black sticks with Kouz, a young and unproven player, before choosing an alternative. If nothing else, Coach Kentera’s remarks brought home a point that I hadn’t considered: For those of us who sometimes found ourselves frustrated at Bochy’s reluctance to deploy the young players made available to him, how would we feel about Black’s continued loyalty to Kouz despite the latter’s early struggles?
I have no answer. Just something to ponder on a Wednesday…
by Peter Friberg
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
AAA
Justin Germano: 8.0 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
AA
Chase Headley: 5 AB, 2 R, 4 H, 0 RBI (.385/.462/.659)
Will Venable: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; BB, SO, SF
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 4 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; 2 SO, SB
Chad Huffman: 3 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; BB
Manny Ayala: 5.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; SO
Kyler Burke: 4 AB, 1 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 SO - struggling
Nathaniel Culp: 7.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 7 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
Germano doesn’t have rookie status, but he’s pitching quite well for the Triple-A Beavers. If he keeps this up, he’ll be on the short list of call-up candidates if the Padres need a spot start.
Last year Huffman was a Padre draftee who flew under my radar until one day I looked up and he was hitting over .300 with an OBP over .400 for the Eugene Emeralds. After going 2-for-3 with a walk, Chad is now hitting .298/.385/.488.
And there you have it. Thanks, Peter, as always. The Padres look to take the series Wednesday night against the Nationals and finish the homestand on an up note. Clay Hensley and Matt Chico hook up at 7:05 p.m. PT. We’ll have the IGD up and running about an hour before first pitch. Go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 2, 2007 at 8:18 am
“Pitcher Cesar Carrillo, drafted 18th overall by the Padres in 2005, departed Monday’s game with Triple-A Portland because of an elbow injury, and the Padres are concerned that the 23-year-old might need season-ending reconstructive surgery. ”
Might want to up that offer to Latos. Of course, Latos’ agent isn’t dumb, so the price tag has now gone up from just a week ago. No way to know this would happen, but KT should have come in stronger I think w/ the first offer to Latos.
“Both the Padres and Nationals are looking for better production from their bench. Going into last night, Padres pinch hitters had gone 5-for-37 (.135) and their Nationals counterparts 3-for-44 (.068). ”
Boy, this one is a tough nut to crack. How could we possibly upgrade our pinch hitting performance? What o what should we do? I can’t think of any pinch-hitters we employ all the time in clutch situations whose names rhyme with Plum that we should get rid of…
May 2, 2007 at 8:57 am
There is a difference between this discussion in 04 and now. In 04 the padres had not seen a winning season in five years where now they are competing for the division every year.
May 2, 2007 at 9:06 am
From the BA link that LM put up last night about USD:
Don’t write off Pepperdine; this is still a very good club with a lot of talented players. Shortstop Danny Worth, who made two errors today, might be the first college shortstop drafted in June (one scouting director on hand agreed that he might have a better combination of defensive and offensive ability than Mississippi’s Zack Cozart or North Carolina’s Josh Horton).
May 2, 2007 at 9:11 am
Here is a statistical analysis of games played at Petco by a gambling recommendation source. I think the easy answer is: “Take the under.”
http://www.covers.com/articles.....58&t=0
May 2, 2007 at 9:21 am
Another question is how long they will stick with Boomer if he continues to get hit hard and Germano continues to pitch well in Portland. I’m still hopeful Boomer can pull it together.
May 2, 2007 at 9:39 am
Hey Peter, if it’s not too much trouble, notable season stat lines (like Headley) would be nice.
May 2, 2007 at 9:39 am
I’m ok with Boomer’s pitching so far…the numbers aren’t pretty, I believe that’s mostly due to the one start though. As a 5th starter I’m ok with it, but I would like to see Bud skip him when there’s an off day and Jake would be on his normal rest even w/o Boomer pitching. A couple times in April he pitched when Jake could have gone in his normal slot. As a long-term strategy, that’s a good idea in April - buy Jake extra rest when you can - but as we get into summertime it hurts the team to not have Jake going every 5th day whether Boomer pitches or not.
By the way, how nice is it to not be worrying about Jake like last year?
May 2, 2007 at 9:43 am
My biggest hope for today’s game: 1 more hit for Kouz. That’s it, just back to back games with a hit. I think that would be a very positive thing for his confidence. He hasn’t done that since the opening two games of the year.
May 2, 2007 at 9:57 am
From the way Black uses Blum at every opportunity, I’m not prepared to say he doesn’t exhibit some of Bochy’s worst tendencies. The difference between trotting Vinny Castilla out there everyday and Kouz is that with Kouz at least there’s the potential for the breakout game, with Bochy’s old veterans there was rarely any hope.
May 2, 2007 at 10:10 am
When Branyan comes back and Giles gets healthy I really think the pads need to look at cutting Blum loose (or trading him to the white sox for 2 hot dogs and one deep dish pizza). Robles has proven to be better with the glove and the stick.
May 2, 2007 at 10:18 am
A much needed win last night; great to see CY do his stuff, separate from his impact on my fantasy team. Try to be horribly long (I struggle with this):
Good:
Hoffman locating his fastballs and having great control over the change. Granted, crappy line up and gave up some deep shots, but it looked like old Trevor
KK: yes the triple, but his AB’s looked a little better; still getting fooled on curves and sliders, but showing decent strike zone command, able to get the counts to fastball counts. He can hit fastballs.
Cameron fielding: looked like he was tracking the ball better.
Bad:
Cameron hitting: I watch every Cameron pitch on slow-motion now on my Tivo to see where the ball is and what he does with it. 98% of the time (100% of the time I watch, but I miss some AB) the ball is on the outer half of the plate and he tries to pull it. He tries to pull everything, thus he rarely sees a hittable inside pitch. I am confused why about 3 weeks ago Merv and Cameron did not sit down and watch video of his AB’s pointing this out. If they did, it is very troubling that he keeps trying to pull.
Maybe recognizing an outside pitch is harder than I think, and this quote from Keith Hernandez about Wright may apply to Cameron:
“A pitch on the outside corner is a pitch that most hitters love. But whenever anyone slumps, it looks like it’s third down and 40. It’s so far away.”
But I sure hope he starts hitting to the opposite field soon.
May 2, 2007 at 10:31 am
I wouldn’t count on Cameron learning how to hit that pitch to RF for a single anytime soon…the guy is 34-35 after all and probably a little late to be learning. He’s a lifetime .250 hitter which means we are just as likely to see .230 as .270 like last year.
On the plus side his D seems to be improving once again which would be a huge lift for the club. With Kouz and Giles in the infield, it seems like the infield D should be stronger then last year as well.
May 2, 2007 at 10:38 am
Eric, I won’t do that nightly, but like I did with Huffman in this morning’s post, I will bring them up periodically…
May 2, 2007 at 10:41 am
After being frustrated with Blum for 3 years now i decited to she just how bad of a pintch hitter he really was, here is what I found.
Career OBP/OPS
Blum .322/.622
Branyan .268/.433
T. Greene .237/.551
Sweeney .360/.766 (Best Padre PH)
Here is how the Padres as a team have faired in the PH department over the past 10 years:
96 .281/.590
97 .330/.701
98 .265/.511
99 .295/.615
00 .326/.694
01 .322/.654
02 .272/.582
03 .322/.651
04 .292/.600
05 .328/.658
06 .366/.795
So it looks like Blum is a pretty middle of the road PH.
May 2, 2007 at 10:57 am
And if you don’t want to wait for DS updates to find out the season lines of minor leaguers, you could always go to minorleaguesplits.com
May 2, 2007 at 10:58 am
14: You’re better off looking at their overall numbers to compare them. PH numbers suffer from a small sample size.
May 2, 2007 at 11:00 am
Also, as a general rule the first two months should be used for evaluating players. As of June 1, if players are still performing at below replacement level, that’s the time to start thinking about making a move.
May 2, 2007 at 11:03 am
all had over 150 PA in the PH role
May 2, 2007 at 11:09 am
DId anyone read the one nugget of Pads in Canepa’s column today? Said they are reminding him of the bumbling 2005 team. He said they’ve already blown 4 or 5 games. Hasn’t the team, technically, only blown two leads in regulation - Hoffman’s BtB blown saves? Maybe he’s throwing in missed RISP opps?
May 2, 2007 at 11:17 am
I think he is throwing in Peavy’s brain fart as well, but Canepa is prone to exagerration and lack of analytical rigor. Also, one of Hoffman’s blown saves included the Gonzalez indecisive play.
May 2, 2007 at 11:17 am
12: he went to right fine last year; still had pull tendancies, but nothing like we are seeing now. Maybe we are just seeing his “slow” start. In 2006, Cameron by month (AB/OPS):
Apr: 27/501
May: 115/663
Jun: 100/1038
Jul: 109/887
Aug: 105/837
Sep: 96/867
2007: 106/505
So he is off to a worse start than last year, but still in keeping with the season. Starting around AB # 140 or so, he started cranking. So, maybe he just needs another 30 so AB and he’ll get on track. Let’s hope. I looked at his monthly numbers in NY, and no real pattern (generally: hot start, cool middle, strong finish).
May 2, 2007 at 12:13 pm
Last year felt like it was all about the injury he suffered in spring training as to why he started slow…I recall knowing that it wasn’t normal for him, and your note on his monthly #s in NY bear that out. So, while I REALLY hope you’re right, since he appears healthy so far I’m not convinced there’s a light at the end of this tunnel that isn’t a train..
May 2, 2007 at 12:45 pm
#14: Russell Branyan has a career .OPS of .814 in all ABs. Where are you pulling this PH data from, as it seems hard to believe that his .OPS would dip in half during PH situations. I don’t think he is the answer, but that just seems terribly low.
#12: If Cameron can’t make adjustments, like every big league player should, he won’t be a big league player much longer.
Question: As we willl have the money to make a mid-season move, I’d be curious to see what people think our most pressing needs are. Assuming that Kouzmanoff puts up reasonable numbers at third, where do we upgrade?
May 2, 2007 at 1:00 pm
I’d be OK with a mid-season move that sends Cameron and maybe Jared Wells to Seattle for Ichiro, with the caveat that we can come to terms with him when he gets here.
May 2, 2007 at 1:07 pm
24: Unless we’re bidding for the rights to a some other baseball player named Ichiro, that package doesn’t come close. A future middle reliever (if he’s lucky) and a player who will walk at the end of the year? I don’t think Seattle would make that trade even if we were the only ones bidding. Might as well hold onto him and get the last bit of Japanese marketing money.
23: Good question. More teams in the race = fewer sellers. We’re slightly above average at so many positions. Hard to find the player who is better enough than that to justify the price.
May 2, 2007 at 1:11 pm
25: What do you think it would take to land Ichiro? Seattle would have to negotiate, given that he’s going to be a FA at the end of the year.
Do you want to go give up someone like Clay Hensley for the possibility of keeping Ichiro? I’m just curious what you think it would take.
May 2, 2007 at 1:15 pm
Not to jump on Peter, because I enjoy his work, but how fine is Carrillo now? Our starting pitcher prospects are now a finesse righty in Portland (Germano), two finesse lefties in San Antonio, another finesse lefty (LeBlanc) in Elsinore, along with Ayala, who can at least break a pane of glass, and some kids in Ft. Wayne, at least some of whom will flame out.
May 2, 2007 at 1:19 pm
26: It would take “a lot.” Ichiro’s going to be a free agent, but so is Cameron. Which player are more people going to pay to see in the last 2 months of the season?
If anyone else is involved in the bidding, it’s going to be expensive. Most teams can beat out minor league offerings with one farm team tied behind their back. Hensley, Bell, and a top position prospect would be the cheapest you could hope for. Jared Wells, Germano, guys like that have almost no trade value.
May 2, 2007 at 1:33 pm
Re: 27
We agree. Velocity matters most. The ability to throw strikes, use deception and locate should be considered secondary at best.
Sincerely,
Greg Maddux, David Wells, Clay Hensley, Chris Young, Trevor Hoffman, Olise Meredith
May 2, 2007 at 1:34 pm
The state of the farm system really is poor without Carillo, it just makes it more important for the team to get the deal done with Latos before the draft. Even if they have to pay middle round 1 slot money(1.3-1.5M) its worth it. He’d immediately be one of their top 3 prospects.
Peter can you add anything else about Latos?
May 2, 2007 at 1:42 pm
29: 100 years of baseball prove that strikeout rates in the minors are the best indicator of future success. We don’t have a single pitcher posting above-average strikeout numbers in the minors.
The best pitcher on the staff is Jake Peavy. The best pitcher in the majors is Santana. Both of them throw really hard. But why should we worry about that, let’s be happy that our farm system has a lot of 5th starters and middle relievers.
May 2, 2007 at 2:22 pm
MLBTraderumors.com reports that the Padres have interest in Brian Lawrence, who is now a free agent. I’d love to see the team sign B Law and stash him in Portland as injury insurance.
As long as we’re talking mid season acquisitions, what about Andruw Jones? Atlanta isn’t going to sign him and Ken Rosenthal mentioned a few weeks ago that Mike Cameron could end up with the Braves next year since he lives in Atlanta. Why not trade Cameron + whatever it takes to get Jones? He’s only 30 and has a career .356/.442/.956 line in Petco. That’s .956 slugging, not OPS. Granted we’d have to give up a lot and then break the bank to resign him but we’re talking about a superstar in the prime of his career, the best centerfielder in the game and a guy who has no problem at all with Petco.
May 2, 2007 at 2:23 pm
TW, you’re not jumping on me, you’re echoing what you’ll see me saying tomorrow (written a week ago) when you see Geoff’s post…
I’ve got high hopes for D. Miller, A. Breit, I hope we sign Latos, I still think Carrillo can be excellent, but yeah… Wait till tomorrow.
May 2, 2007 at 2:25 pm
The Recent History of Geoff Blum
In 2004, Geoff Blum had an OPS of .614, Geoff ranked 243 out of 246 that year, beating out 3 players in MLB. This ineptitude with the bat immediately caught the Padres’ eye and he was signed as a free agent.
In 2005, Geoff had a resurgence, his OPS soared to .641, a repeat rank of 243 doesn’t do his season justice, this time he beat out 11 batters.
In 2006, Geoff continued his Barry Bonds like late career production explosion. When the season came to an end, Geoff’s .659 OPS put him in the elite 92% of the league, 270 out of 293.
2007 is a bit of deja vu for the Padres, Geoff’s .336 OPS has put him behind 3 other men vying for the coveted “White Flag” nickname, same as the winter of 2004, the year this love affair began. Will history repeat itself and will Geoff’s pursuit of this hallowed moniker bring another suitor?
May 2, 2007 at 2:30 pm
34: Excellent.
May 2, 2007 at 2:34 pm
31: Tom, Looking at Ekstrom’s (SA) numbers so far this year you are correct. Look at the last few years and you will see a different picture. Ek is a strikeout/control pitcher. He is struggling early this year but had relatively good outings his last two. Look for him to step it up very soon. Once he gets a feel for the Texas League hitters and the change in climate, he will do real well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in Portland before the end of the year. I also believe the two innings he threw to start the season (that was postponed due to snow) screwed him up rhythm-wise
May 2, 2007 at 2:38 pm
36: I’m looking at Ekstrom’s career numbers. He’s had more than a k per inning once, in 2004 at Eugene. His minor league average is 6.5/9. That’s not a strikeout pitcher. Compare him to a Brian Lawrence, who nobody thinks of as a strikeout guy, but he was getting 8.5 per 9 in the minors.
May 2, 2007 at 2:40 pm
re 31: I would be interested to know what is commonly considered “average” in terms of K/9 at various levels. What I do know is that the following are at or better than 7/9: Ekstrom, Geer, Carter, LeBlanc and Daigle. As for me, I would prefer to evaluate them by K/BB, and Padres’ minor league starters, including Germano, seem to fare better by that metric.
While K/9 may be very important, it does not follow that you have to throw fast. Again, location and deception are more important for establishing high K rates; add velocity to those and you have an All-Star. Have velocity and none of those and you are more likely to get Bret Tomko.
May 2, 2007 at 2:42 pm
31: & 36: OK, Eck got shelled today, but I still think he is going to come around soon and be a force in the TL.
May 2, 2007 at 3:00 pm
38: What normally happens is that a player’s strikeout rate decreases as he moves up, even if only slightly, because he’s playing against better players. Peavy’s a good example. Struck out more than 11 per 9 in the minors, is in the mid-8s as a major leaguer. You take a kid who’s in the 6-7 range in the minors, drop that to 5 or lower in the majors, it’s barely survivable. Our crop is currently in the 7s, by and large. And that’s mostly in A ball.
The problem with K/BB rate is that it can make pitchers with terrific control look better than they are because the BB are so low. A tiny numerator doesn’t make the denominator any bigger.
Our minor league starters have fringe-average or lower velocity. They’re not striking many people out. Not nearly the rate you need to be above-average when you reach the majors. None of them have terrific movement. The best projection for anyone not bound for TJ surgery or not in Ft Wayne is a back-end starter or reliever. Maybe LeBlanc projects to be a #3, if you’re optimistic.
All of the pitchers you list are doing better this year than they have in their careers. That may be because they’ve improved or because they’ve only pitched 5 games or so. I’m fond of LeBlanc, but he’s doing what a polished college pitcher should do in the Cal League.
You also have to factor age. Carter and Daigle are both 24 year olds in A ball.
May 2, 2007 at 3:02 pm
39: It’s not this season with Ekstrom. He’s just not been a big strikeout guy.
May 2, 2007 at 3:23 pm
Tom, look at him last year compared to the rest of the (Southern) league, he was near the top if I’m not mistaken. In addition, he had extremely terrible run support last year (granted that has nothing to do with K’s, but his overall record would have been much better with some help from the offense).
I know, I know, most people on this blog discussion don’t think highly of wins/losses assigned to to pitchers, but I happen to think it is very telling. Not for day to day stuff but for longer term analysis.
May 2, 2007 at 3:30 pm
I caught a few minutes of Sandy Alderson on XX just now. Nothing too surprising but here’s what I heard:
Q: Cesar Carillo?
A: No diagnosis yet but it sounds like TJ surgery is in his future. Better that it happened now instead of when his service time clock is ticking.
Q: Worried about the bench?
A: More worried about the starting lineup. Geoff Blum is struggling but it’s only been a month.
Q: Kouz?
A: They still believe in him, Branyan’s return may force a move. If he goes to Portland it’s because it’s best for his development, not because they lost faith.
Q: Interest in Brian Lawrence?
A: No interest in Brian Lawrence. Anything can happen but highly unlikely. Mentioned that Justin Germano is doing well.
Sounds like no one is panicking in the front office, which is good.
May 2, 2007 at 3:33 pm
Tom, My recollection is that Eck is not projected to be a 1-3 starter anyway, but a 4-5. He IS a good control pitcher with velocity in the low 90’s (peaking around 94mph) and has great upside according to Grady Fuson (I think it was him). It was said in the same article he may see action in SD as early as 2008.
I am not saying Eck is the be-all end-all to solve the Pad’s pitching problems, but I do believe he will be a very decent 4-5 starter who has shown K-ability in the past in relation to the rest of his peers.
May 2, 2007 at 4:02 pm
34: You neglect to mention Blummer’s intangibles. You know, the important things that don’t show up in the box score. In Blum’s case, these things are called “hits.” You will never, ever, see them next to his name on a scoresheet.
(Oh wait, I guess you did address that.)
May 2, 2007 at 4:21 pm
Re 40: Fair enough, but since the Padres have their 1, 2 and 3 starters locked up or under control for several more years, I guess I am not too concerned that the current “prospects” are at best 4 and 5 starters, because that is what the team needs to replace. Then again, one injury to the top three and the Padres would be in trouble, but that is true for many teams.
In the long run, I am hopeful that the drafts from 2005 forward will produce any needed replacements should Peavy, Young or Hensley bolt to “greener” pastures.
Do you see anyone in the NL West minor league systems besides Tim Linecum who fits your profile of a future above-average major league pitcher?
May 2, 2007 at 4:34 pm
42: I really doubt that 5.2 K’s per 9 was near the top in the pitcher-friendly Southern League. Just looking at Chattanooga I see several guys with better numbers.
44: That’s the problem right there. Not with Ekstrom by himself, but that our entire minor league system is full of guys who project to be back-of-the-rotation starters. Those are easier to find than front-end guys.
46: I’m not convinced Hensley will be a #3. And why are people content to have mediocre pitchers in the 4 and 5 spots? Why not have as many good pitchers as you can?
Every NL West team but us has at least one pitching prospect who profiles as a 1-2. Linceum may be the only Giant, but the other teams have multiple. The Dodgers have more than anybody. They won’t all get there, but at least they have them.
May 2, 2007 at 5:35 pm
Yup, Ek didn’t do so well today, but SA’s Chase Headley and Mike Thompson sure did … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_friaax_1
May 2, 2007 at 5:37 pm
Stansberry and Cust with HR’s today in a game up in rainy Portland that it doesn’t look like they’ll get completed … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_poraaa_1
May 2, 2007 at 6:13 pm
48: Michael Johnson. If Mike Thompson could hit like that he’d be a tremendous asset, 12th pitcher, LH pinch-hitter.
Very good numbers for him so far, but he’s on pace for about 140 strikeouts. Strange that his K numbers are so much worse at home. On the road his K/BB are almost even.
Headley is hitting the pee out of the ball.
http://tinyurl.com/32b3ho
May 2, 2007 at 6:17 pm
Is Stansberry this year’s Leone or a legitimate player? It wouldn’t be that hard to make the bench better if we weren’t so loaded with pitchers and catchers. Send Bowen down, bring Cust up. Trade Blum, bring up Stansberry.
May 2, 2007 at 6:18 pm
50 … oops, minor difference, one might say
Here’s Michael Johnson’s splits … http://www.minorleaguesplits.c.....X&bp=b … and he’s about to turn 27 … can’t say I’m optimistic … just hopeful …
May 2, 2007 at 6:20 pm
Similar link for Headley … http://www.minorleaguesplits.c.....X&bp=b … hmm, I’d forgotten he’s a switch-hitter … I like it!
May 2, 2007 at 6:29 pm
51 … that could be a decent comp … but as much as I know about Stansberry is that he’s a better glove man than Leone was. Getting a direct comment from someone like SandyA on why Blum over Stansberry on the current roster would be very interesting …
May 3, 2007 at 6:23 am
54: Yeah, I was more going for the “older minor league hitter having an unnaturally hot start of the year.”
I can’t see a situation in which they drop Blum. They were in a big hurry to sign him last winter. Don’t like it, but as long as 3 of our 5 starters are routinely going 6 or fewer innings, they’re going to keep the bully loaded up. That means the bench stays weak and thin.
May 3, 2007 at 9:19 am
Re 47:
“Every NL West team but us has at least one pitching prospect who profiles as a 1-2. Linceum may be the only Giant, but the other teams have multiple. The Dodgers have more than anybody. They won’t all get there, but at least they have them.”
Maybe you can say that about High A and below, but I don’t think you can honestly say that about the Dodgers’ or Diamondbacks AAA and AA teams. I don’t know much about the Rockies system, but only BK Kim has a 9+ K/9 ratio going right now among starters at AA or above. Only Tim Linecum profiles as your ideal above-average starter.
And if you are talking about High A ball and below, you are talking about these guys typically not arriving as productive major league pitchers for anywhere from 2-4 years. By then, the Padres can revamp and turn things around on the starting pitching front, particularly with how well they do with trades, and if they can get Latos to sign.
May 3, 2007 at 10:42 am
56: Was there any requirement that the pitchers be at a certain level? We were talking about pitchers who have the upside of a 1-2 starter. The Dodgers drafted two of them with their first two picks last year. I also don’t recall writing that I felt 9 K’s per 9 was the cutoff point. Our problem is that we don’t have pitchers averaging even 7 for their careers.
But let’s change the parameters and look just at AA and above. Six players have started at least 1 game for their AA team in Jacksonville. Only one of them doesn’t have a K/9 rate higher than 7. Another one is Eric Cyr, who we can say is no longer a prospect even though if he was a Padre some people would be talking about how “a guy might just need time to find himself.” Scott Elbert has 24 K’s in 14 innings. I think that counts.
Micah Owings of the Dbacks represents a possible 1-2. Can reach 97. Drafted in 2005, already in the majors, 137 K’s in 167 minor league innings. They also have Dustin Nippert, top-end stuff, 130 Ks in 140 AAA innings last year. He’s with the big club too but both he and Owings are still prospects.
The Rockies have Franklin Morales. 8.5 K’s per 9 so far in AA, 179 K’s in 154 innings last year. A legitimate ace prospect.
SF has Lincecum and Jonathan Sanchez, who struck out more than 1 per 9 last year in the minors.
May 3, 2007 at 10:46 am
56:
As for “And if you are talking about High A ball and below, you are talking about these guys typically not arriving as productive major league pitchers for anywhere from 2-4 years. By then, the Padres can revamp and turn things around on the starting pitching front, particularly with how well they do with trades, and if they can get Latos to sign.”, that’s a pretty serious change of points. Now you’re not saying that other teams don’t have top pitching prospects or that we do have them, but that we shouldn’t be concerned because we can fix things before then. The Padres drafted better in 2005 and 2006, but still not all that well. Drafted a lot of pitchability kids. Passed on a lot of high upside types.