Get Luckier
Tue, May 1, 2007
by Geoff Young
The fact that we’re all frustrated by a 13-13 start speaks volumes about how far this franchise has come in a very short time. That doesn’t make us feel any better after another stupid loss (recap | box score), of course, but it’s something.
I don’t have the stomach to sit through the game again, so I’m working from memory this morning. Monday night’s contest isn’t just one that the Padres could have won, it’s one they should have won. Several well-struck balls found gloves — Josh Bard drove one to the gap in right-center that Ryan Church tracked down, Adrian Gonzalez smashed one right down the first base line that Dmitri Young caught and turned into a double play in front of Bard’s eighth inning home run, and Oscar Robles hammered two to deep right that caused him to rethink his strategy at Petco:
I crushed those balls. I’ve got to concentrate on line drives now, put the ball in play.
Jake Peavy gave the Nationals a run in the fourth when he forgot that Church was on first (courtesy of a 1-2 HBP) and worked from the windup, allowing the Washington center fielder to swipe second base uncontested. Church promptly scored on an Austin Kearns single that gave the visitors a 2-1 lead. To his credit, Peavy is making no excuses. And truth is, this game shouldn’t have been close enough for his brain cramp to become such a focal point. Nats starter John Patterson left plenty of hittable pitches out over the plate, but other than the ones that Terrmel Sledge and Bard (off reliever Ray King) knocked out of the park, none resulted in runs for the home team. That is a problem.
Do I have a solution in mind? Sure, get luckier. Have more hard-hit balls fall in for hits. Good luck controlling that.
This has been an unbelievably aggravating stretch for the Padres. This is also a much stronger NL West than we’ve seen in recent years. The downside is that these tough losses become more critical; there is very little margin for error when three or four other teams are ready, willing, and able to pounce. The upside is that, after having seen all the other teams in the division, there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that the Padres can play with any of ‘em. Remember, this team has won the NL West two years running; they are the target.
I’m rambling now, but there is a point to all this. Over the course of a long season, talent rises to the top. This current stretch really blows, but it will pass.
by Peter Friberg
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
AAA
Cesar Carrillo: 1.2 IP, 5 H, 3 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR - Injured
AA
Chase Headley: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; HR, 2 SO - another home HR
Will Venable: 4 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 1 RBI
Cesar Ramos: 9.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 3 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; BB
David Freese: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; SO
Kyle Blanks: 4 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 4 RBI; 3B, HR, SO
Chad Huffman: 5 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 2B
Matt Wade Leblanc: 6.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 SO, 0 HR
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 3 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI
Kyler Burke: 3 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 0 RBI - Ft. Wayne’s only hit
Commentary:
MiLB.com’s gamelog reports that, “Portland Beavers pitcher Cesar Carrillo left the game due to an injured elbow.” A lot was made of the fact that Cesar did not have surgery last year. Obviously at the time I’m writing this, we have no idea if this is the same injury that forced him to miss the second half of 2006. Whether it’s 15 days or 15 months, I’m sure we are all hoping for a complete recovery. Good luck, kid!
From one Cesar to another… In two starts (Ramos’ first and fourth of the year), Ramos posted the following numbers:
9.2 IP, 16 H, 12 ER, 4 BB, 2 SO
In his three other starts he posted these numbers:
20.0 IP, 13 H, 4 ER, 3 BB, 19 SO
I have serious doubts about Ramos’ status as a prospect. But those doubts center on the fact that last year Ramos allowed 161 hits in 141 innings and only struck out 70. To sustain success he needs to miss fewer bats and give up fewer hits. It’s still early, but so far this season Ramos is doing exactly that.
Matt Leblanc has not given up a run in three consecutive starts.
. . .
Top High School Shortstops
I covered the top collegiate shortstops a while back. Here are the top high school shortstop prospects according to Baseball America (alphabetically):
Christian Colon SS/2B R-R 5-11 175 Canyon HS, Anaheim
Drew Cumberland SS L-R 5-10 170 Pace HS, Milton, Fla.
Ryan Dent SS/2B R-R 5-10 180 Wilson HS, Los Angeles
Justin Jackson SS R-R 6-2 175 Roberson HS, Asheville, N.C.
Peter Kozma SS R-R 6-0 170 Owasso (Okla.) HS
John Tolisano 2B/SS B-R 6-0 190 Estero (Fla.) HS
It’s foolhardy to analyze high schoolers by their statistics — never mind that high school stats are hard to come by — so I won’t try.
BA ranks each of these guys among the top 50 high school players (regardless of position). Anaheim/Orange County is a baseball hotbed, so Colon piqued my interest. The same could be said of Cumberland and Tolisano.
I would be surprised if the Padres did not draft one of these six high school shortstops and/or one of the collegiate shortstops in the first two rounds.
Good stuff as always; thanks, Peter! Happy Tuesday, folks; we’ll see you back here for the IGD around 6 p.m. PT. Go Padres!
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May 1, 2007 at 8:24 am
Didn’t the pad’s already try the high school shortstop pick?
The pad’s really need to evaluate their offence and make some tough decisions. They have the pitching this year and they can’t waste it. Who knows what they will get out of Maddux, Wells and Hoffy next year.
Cameron is starting to become a liability at the plate and is not playing the D to justify it, Kouz is playing great D but this is not the year to have a rookie struggle in the lineup (I still think the trade will work out well though)
I guess I share G.Y’s frustration because if this team wants a third straight division title they cant loose a game to the leagues 2nd worst team when their ace is on the mound, Peavy cant pitch 7 shutout innings every night.
May 1, 2007 at 8:39 am
I agree that it shows how much better the team is (and our expectations) that we’re not pleased with a .500 start for April.
That said, things could be a lot worse. The past four games that we’ve lost have been 1-run games, which we used to own. Credit the Nats last nite for making the most of their base runners and manufacturing runs. It’s unfortuanate that we had two instances last nite in which we had a man on third and one out.
Also, does anyone else think that someone with a little more consistency needs to be hitting behind Khalil? He’s getting on base at a decent pace. Maybe switch Khalil and Bard? Khalil’s got the doubles and gap power to be a semi-legitimate 4 or 5 hitter.
We definitely need to address the Cameron/Kouz situation. It’s getting to the point that Jake Peavy is a bigger threat than these guys in our line-up.
May 1, 2007 at 8:58 am
A frustrating game when the opportunities were wasted.
Even more so, when after the game the spotlight was on Peavy’s brainfart.
Really, that wasn’t the deciding turn of event.
I thought the last out was also going to be a HR. I’d hate to see any hitter change their approach to their ABs, but if Oscar thinks that’ll help him and the team, I can’t wait for the results.
Peter, is Matt Leblanc supposed to be Wade Leblanc or are they two different people? I don’t remember either way.
May 1, 2007 at 9:07 am
Matt Leblanc = Joey
May 1, 2007 at 9:11 am
I guess we can forget about Matt Latos, Pads have made a fair offer that is far apart. They are light on pitching but will not spend the money.
May 1, 2007 at 9:22 am
Uh yeah… Wade (Geoff, will you please edit my PPR).
Bruce, do you have a link?
May 1, 2007 at 9:31 am
Peter, It was in the UT this morning.
May 1, 2007 at 9:40 am
#6: Got it. My bad for not catching that. Also, here is the link to the Latos item:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
May 1, 2007 at 10:04 am
GY, that post was reminiscent of the “come back off the ledge” post from late last year. And, here it is . . . only May!
May 1, 2007 at 10:06 am
I don’t see anything in the Latos item that makes it look like they won’t sign him. Of course they are far apart, but it is the beginning of May and they have until the draft to sign him. Also, the organization has made a public point out of how much they are going to spend on this year’s draft and other development items like the Dominican Republic. Unless Latos is demanding Jered Weaver-type draft money, the better bet is that the Padres get it done.
May 1, 2007 at 10:09 am
From Jayson Stark:
“We looked at every full season since 1982. Here’s what we found:
• Of the 144 teams that made it to the postseason in that span, only eight (or 5.6 percent) came out of April more than three games under .500. Clubs that need to worry most about that history lesson: the Yankees (9-14), Astros (10-14), Cardinals (10-14), Cubs (10-14) and Rangers (10-15).
• Just six of those 144 playoff teams (or 4.2 percent) found themselves more than 4½ games out of a playoff spot after April. Those same five clubs ought to get nervous about that trend; the Yankees are 6½ games out, while the Cubs, Cardinals and Astros are all 5½ games out.”
One of those teams was last year’s Padres.
May 1, 2007 at 10:14 am
#9: Moping is great, but it only gets you so far.
#11: Fascinating stuff, TF. Thanks!
May 1, 2007 at 10:30 am
Phantom…Re: 2…KG is getting on at a .300 clip…certainly not anything I would classify as a “decent pace”. It is not secret that I am not a KG fan, but I will say this, he does look better at the plate right now than he has in a while. Despite that admission, I submit that a 300 obp and a 265 average is fine if you are hitting 40 bombs, but not when you have yet to muster 20 any year in your career.
As far as the Padres start goes, I think many of us agreed that April would be key…coming out at .500 is not the start we hoped for, nor is it as bad as it could have been. I really don’t think we hamstrung ourselves…yet.
After watching every team in the league, I still stand by my prediction that the Diamondbacks and the Padres will be in the mix the whole way, the Dodgers and Rockies are .500 clubs at best, and the Giants are the worst team in the division.
Last point…I love Trevor. Big defender of his. But I have to say that I realized the other day that I am more surprised when he gets a 1-2-3 inning that when he gives up 4 ER’s in the 9th. Maybe it has something to do with an 81 MPH fastball and the very small margin for error he currently has…or it could be that we have two other options in the pen that are very solid candidates. A friend and I were talking the other day and he suggested the following…*If* Hoffy continues to struggle a well publicized visit to Dr. Andrews or Dr. Yocum and a “diagnosis” that requires surgery may be a way for our esteemed closer to walk away from the game with his head held high and his legacy firmly entrenched. The last thing any of us want is a Willy Mays and the Mets type of situation…
May 1, 2007 at 10:39 am
#13 You give new meaning to the term “cut” a player.
May 1, 2007 at 10:59 am
13 - I was with you on the Dodgers previously, but I’ve come around. We need a few of the expected injuries to guys like Nomar to happen, and until then I will count the Dogs as a real contender.
My biggest problem with the .500 record is that it was pretty much compiled against the NL West. We’re now underwater vs everyone but the Rockies and Giants. The two teams we should be battling for the division or a wildcard - LA and AZ - we’re net negative to right now (granted, only by 2 and 1 games respectively). Last year’s cushy record against LA was built early in the year, and I feel we’ve given up some valuable ground already.
May 1, 2007 at 11:10 am
10: I looked up his OBP and I agree that .300 is not that great. In fact, if you constructed the batting order from OBP, he’s right where he should be.
I just find it extremely frustrating that when Khalil does get on, there’s usually little done to get him in. Also, his hits have tended to be on the order of multiple bases, which is great for driving in runs. His K pace seems to be down this year, and I would really like to see him hitting a bit higher. That said, should he be hitting fourth? I don’t know. But I’d feel more comfortable with Khalil hitting behind Adrian than I do Bard.
Adrian + Bardo = Easy GIDP
Adrian + Khalil = Not so easy GIDP.
May 1, 2007 at 11:23 am
Trying to turn a negative into a positive: With Cameron and Kouzmanoff in the lineup we’re basically going into every game with 3 pitchers in the lineup. Add in Geoff Blum and we’re pinch hitting with a pitcher. Even with those three black holes we’re still at .500. With even a little more offense from those spots we’ll win more games.
Easy solutions for all these problems:
Platoon Cameron and Sledge, with Cruz starting in CF against righthanders and in LF against lefties.
Platoon Kouz and Branyan, or send Kouz down to Portland
Cut Blummer and keep Robles
May 1, 2007 at 11:33 am
#17: Anthony, I agree with all your suggestions. I was impressed with Robles in ST and again last night. His track record isn’t great, but he’s a pest at the plate in a Dave Roberts kind of way. He seems a lot more useful to me than Blum.
May 1, 2007 at 12:04 pm
17. Those are the easy solutions, but winning sometimes means making the hard decisions like spending what it takes to get a power hitting third baseman and hoping KK straightens it out in AAA so that he can become the right handed bat off the bench down the stretch.
May 1, 2007 at 12:17 pm
19. And what great power hitting third basemen were available last offseason? Aramis Ramirez never was really available, and no one else on the list of free agents inspired visions of a slugging hot sacker.
May 1, 2007 at 12:18 pm
It is also pretty silly to call up a rookie who has been a starter all of his major league career and then expect him to perform off the bench. Unfortunately, it is also silly to expect veterans like Geoff Blum to perform too.
May 1, 2007 at 12:19 pm
Re: 19 what power hitting 3B is out there right now? The only way to get any power is in LF.
Giles 2B - has done well in the leadoff spot
Giles RF – Keep the BroBI alive!
Gonzalez 1B - Dont think I need to Justify this
Pat the Bat LF - Make the trade
Branyan 3B - Pure Power!
Cheo Jr CF - His D and Bat have earned this
Bard C - Still hitting .300 this year
Greene SS - His OBP will go up in this spot
Tough decisions made!
May 1, 2007 at 12:21 pm
Opps Bard is hitting .286
May 1, 2007 at 12:49 pm
Warning: long post… But a good interview at BP with Vince Gennaro, author of Diamond Dollars. The link (subscription req):
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=6165
And here’s the most relevant portion to the Padres:
M[aury]B[rown]: What are some of the real leverage points, the things a team can do that really make a difference to a team’s financial performance?
V[ince]G[ennaro]: One of the biggest drivers of revenue is an appearance in the postseason. When a team reaches the postseason, particularly for the first time after being absent for several years, it can trigger a revenue stream for up to five years. The Tigers have seen a 90% increase in season tickets, coming off last year’s World Series appearance. Even if they fail to get back to the postseason in 2007 and 2008, they will still retain some of those new season ticket buyers. The net result is a revenue stream of about $35 million over four or five years, just as a result of the 2006 World Series appearance. Not all postseason appearances are created equal—if an 85-win playoff team goes three and out in the first round, the financial benefits may be small.
On the cost side, the biggest financial lever is to have a prolific scouting and player development system. It costs two to three times more to buy wins in the free agent market than it does to develop them internally—providing the team has a reasonably productive farm system. The key is farm system productivity. There is no upside in saving money on player development. The relative cost is so low, when compared to the cost of buying wins in the free agent market, that teams should be looking for ways to spend more money to improve the yield from their farm system. A third financial game-changer is to get into the team-owned RSN business. An RSN can be a great investment for a MLB team, providing the team’s broadcast rights are a significant enough asset to form the basis of a network. It probably is a viable strategy for at least half the MLB teams.
May 1, 2007 at 12:56 pm
Maybe 13-13 is the result of good luck for the Padres. Look at the bottom of the batting order and tell me their record should have been better. Of course, the Padres are 5-6 in one-run games, so one could argue that just being luckier could have led to a marked improvement in April.
(Truly blessed are the Brewers, 16-9 despite scoring only 3 more runs than they’ve allowed!)
May 1, 2007 at 1:16 pm
Something fun with two Padres in it…on the same category.
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.c.....commenttop
May 1, 2007 at 1:25 pm
We’ve had a horrid week, and it probably would be a fine week if not for:
Hoffman suddenly not being able to place his fastball. I doubt that will continue.
Continued ineptitude of Cameron and Kouszmanoff. With KK, we have Branyan, so that has some fix until he can get fixed.
Cameron: no idea. At some point, soon, as said above, you have to give PT to Cruz. Horrid “slump” or whatever it is.
Blum being the black hole. Historically, he is a decent sub, not a black hole. Like Cameron, no idea, but give him less PT until he seems better.
So, as long as we don’t have Kouz and Cam in the line up on the same day, I think we can win.
Bud needs to shake things up. On a side note, I support the Giles-Giles order, but OG needs to lead off. He can easily be a .400 OBP guy, which is awesome and NOG’s power can have more on base.
May 1, 2007 at 1:32 pm
The Padres still have the highest third order winning percentage and PECOTA adjusted third order winning percentage in the division. They currently project as the favorite using both metrics.
The Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants are all currently winning more games than they ought to given how they have played and the opposite is true of the Padres and Rockies.
May 1, 2007 at 2:53 pm
22.Steve, your lineup looks like a big improvement. Looking at third basemen, it is apparent that Branyan is right up near the top hitters this year and last. He needs the AB’s. How do we get Pat or someone of his caliber without giving up Linebrink?
May 1, 2007 at 3:50 pm
22/29. You are not getting Burrell just for Linebrink or a reliever of his caliber unless more than half the season is gone and the Phillies are hopelessly out of it and can sign Linebrink to an extension. IF you really want Burrell, try Clay Hensley as a minimal starting bid; if you are lucky, they won’t demand more.
May 1, 2007 at 4:05 pm
Reality to Fathers…..the rest of us are over here……yes Burrell is a good left fielder, but he’s making 2/26 the next 2 seasons. He’s not worth anything close to that and the Phily fans hate the guy.
Linebrink is underpaid and Burrell is overpaid, well overpaid actually. You can’t talk about Linebrink’s contract, or lack there of without discussing Burrell’s deal.
May 1, 2007 at 4:24 pm
I see no reason to deal for Burrell now or later. The contract alone should be a deterrant. Plus, Termell and Cruz platoon is actually working out quite well right now. The problem is not from LF, guys.
Blum is having way too many PAs to my liking. Let’s hope that changes with the return of Branyan and the temporary demotion of Kouzmanoff.
May 1, 2007 at 4:31 pm
Agreed about Burrell. I like the guy, but LF isn’t the problem right now. We’d be better served making a play for someone like the Yankees’ Kevin Thompson, who might be undervalued by his current organization and provide a big-league team with a useful RH bat off the bench. He is 27 years old but destroyed LH last season at Triple-A:
http://www.minorleaguesplits.c.....ILb06.html
May 1, 2007 at 4:40 pm
I’m not big on Burrell either. He doesn’t seem like a real good fit to me.
Thanks for the optimism, Geoff. I needed it. That 17 inning game really took the wind out of my sails.
May 1, 2007 at 4:47 pm
FREE PAT THE BAT!!!
With that being said, there is a renewed sense of hope for the Philly fans and him. If they are out of it at the ASB, then we would have a chance to land him, but since that won’t happen, we can just hope that at the end of the season we could get his bat in here. I am pretty well convinced that it would play well here in SD.
I am thinking that while I will lose a bet, KK needs to be sent down and give Branyan a shot…he will hit in the low-mid 200’s and have an OBP like KG, but he can hit 40 bombs…I will take that for the short run.
I still cannot figure out the Blummer role on this club, but Towers loves the guy, so I think we are stuck for a while.
May 1, 2007 at 5:27 pm
33. Geoff, We are back to where we started –3rd base. Can you list the ten or so best at that position and tell us why they arent available or what it would take (in players or $)in your opinion. Then everyone can either be satisfied with Branyon or not. Hey, we had 3 question mark positions at the start of the season and two are going along ok.
May 1, 2007 at 5:38 pm
Let’s all settle a bit and take a deep breath…I really hope NOBODY is ready to give up on KK. His minor league track record is as good as it gets and he has shown that he will be able to play adequate defense.
This is not “let’s replace KK long term”…this is simply a couple of weeks to get the swing straight, not giving up on the guy completely. He is the answer at 3b, apparently just not in April 2007…maybe June.
May 1, 2007 at 5:54 pm
37 … I’m with you CM …
22 … I like that lineup … I’m a Pat Burrell fan …
David Wright with HR #1 today … so now he’s tied with KK … let’s hope that piss’s off KK enough to move back ahead of him tonight …
Did you see what Vlad did today? Grand Slam with 0 outs in the 1st inning … now *that* is a clean-up hitter doing his job!
Reminds me of a game I went to in 1978 … http://www.baseball-reference......7040.shtml
May 1, 2007 at 5:55 pm
38 … and while looking for that box score, I came across this one from 1974 … http://www.baseball-reference......5170.shtml … it’s good to think good thoughts
May 1, 2007 at 5:55 pm
This article tells about how $230M of defered contracts have stifled the Dbacks new mgmt. and what their future salary plans are.C:\Documents and Settings\Ti\Desktop\Arizona shows signs of life in the desert - Los Angeles Times.htm
May 1, 2007 at 7:04 pm
Re: 30 I figured Linebrink/Sledge for Burrell.
You guys are right LF is not the problem but Cheo can play Center and that way they can put burrell in left.
May 2, 2007 at 8:42 am
Re: 31 - Reality to Mark Ase: Burrell has a .869 OPS over the last three years, and is still in his prime. That gets you at least $13 million per in today’s crazy market. He is struggling right now at .825 OPS, but Padres’ fans would kill for that, oh, except that Jomel Crudge is currently doing much better.
I don’t really care what Philly fans think, because they are usually reactionary, foul mouth, limited attention span crybabies - kind of like most so-called fans, except for the foul mouth part. It only matters what the Phillies front office thinks, and at this point in the season, they would not be thinking about trading a starting, generally reliable outfielder for an 8th inning set up man, particularly when they are already getting solid set up work from Geary, Alfonseca and Madson.
Re: 41 - Linebrink/Sledge wouldn’t do it either for basically the same reasons. Maybe Hensley/Sledge, as Philly currently needs better starting pitching.
May 2, 2007 at 8:44 am
Re: 40 could you provide a direct link to the LA Times article on Arizona? I don’t have access to your desktop.