Four in Atlanta, Unsolicited Roster Suggestions
Mon, May 7, 2007
by Geoff Young
Went to Vegas over the weekend. Thought about betting on some baseball games, but the return on investment is terrible. Hard to justify laying down an upper-deck ticket for a 60% chance of winning a bag of peanuts. Mutual funds would be better, but I couldn’t find any at the sports book.
Meanwhile, down in Miami, the Padres were busy winning a series against the Florida Marlins. If not for a hiccup by Scott Linebrink on Friday night, it might well have been a sweep. Still, the Padres now have won six and tied two of their 11 series so far this season.
Next up, four in Atlanta with the Braves. Marcus Giles and Greg Maddux return to the place they called home for many years. After a brief lapse in 2006, Bobby Cox and the Braves are back to their winning ways. Tim Hudson is missing bats again, Chipper Jones and John Smoltz are playing like the future Hall of Famers they are, and Kelly Johnson is emerging as one of the early surprises of the season. After missing all of ‘06, Johnson has made the unlikely move from left field to second base and finds himself among league leaders in OBP, runs scored, and walks.
As a team, the Braves are leading the NL East with a 19-11 record. Pythagoras puts them (as it does the Padres) at 17-13. For as strong as the offense and the front of the rotation have been, the back end and bullpen have been vulnerable. Left-hander Chuck James has been somewhat passable, Kyle Davies and Mark Redman, a little less than that. The ‘pen, despite the additions of Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, remains beatable. Then again, with their offense, it may not come to that.
The key to this series for the Padres will be holding the bats in check and getting the starters out of the game. Keep the games close and hope for a battle of the bullpens. In other words, standard operating procedure.
The other intriguing player on this Braves club is right fielder Jeff Francoeur. He’s always had sick plate coverage but a complete absence of discipline has made him something of an offensive liability (.293 OBP in 2006) despite gaudy traditional numbers (29 HR, 103 RBI) — hello, Joe Carter.
This year, though, Francouer has become more selective at the plate. He’s not there yet, but you can ask anyone who’s ever faced Vlad Guerrero how difficult it is to get guys out who can drive just about anything. Francouer is 23 years old and he’s learning to take pitches without making any sacrifices in power. He’s making the transition from freakish to dangerous, and I’m very glad he doesn’t call the NL West home.
Bench Jockeying
On another note, we (you and me, not the Padres) are trying to find suitable alternatives to Geoff Blum for that last bench spot. With a 12-man pitching staff (a gripe for another day), the Padres can carry just five guys on the bench. One is the backup catcher, Rob Bowen. Two others, Russell Branyan and Jose Cruz Jr., play on a semi-regular basis. That leaves two spots, currently occupied by Blum and Oscar Robles.
Blum and Robles essentially are redundant pieces. The numbers don’t bear it out, and perhaps I am biased due to watching Blum flail at sliders down and in for the past couple of seasons, but I feel much more comfortable with Robles at the plate. He battles up there in a Dave Roberts kind of way.
From a roster construction standpoint, the problems with Blum are that a) he brings the same skill set to the game as does Robles, albeit in a slightly inferior fashion (my opinion) and b) he cannot hit lefties. Cruz effectively is the only right-handed bat off the bench, and he’s the Padres’ best hitter right now, which means he’s in the lineup more often than not. That leaves — what, Maddux and Jake Peavy?
Given that the Padres have committed themselves to carrying too many pitchers, the question becomes one of whether better alternatives than Blum exist for the final bench spot. The answer depends on what you need that spot to accomplish. In a perfect world, the Padres would add a right-handed hitter who can play just about anywhere. A very quick (i.e., not exhaustive) look reveals a paucity of names:
- Willie Bloomquist
- Juan Castro
- Damion Easley
- Ramon Martinez
- John McDonald
- Luis Rodriguez
- Mike Rouse
- Marco Scutaro
- Wilson Valdez
- Chris Woodward
First off, that’s a very ugly list. Second, the only guys on it that I’m comfortable calling an upgrade over Blum are Easley and Scutaro. Too bad the Mets and A’s have no reason to part with them. There might be players with similar skill sets in the minors — last I checked, the most “promising” name was Jeff Keppinger.
If the Padres can’t conjure an Easley/Scutaro type, maybe they need to go in a different direction? As others have noted, the most pressing need on this club right now is a right-handed bat. Beyond lamenting the fact that Paul McAnulty bats from the left side, what can we do?
I haven’t looked at available options that closely, but a couple of names that intrigue me are Eduardo Perez and Kevin Thompson. Assuming Perez is still playing (he’s 37), he can mash lefties (.265/.362/.501 over parts of 13 seasons). He probably could play a little first base, and possibly some third base or a corner outfield spot in an emergency, and would give the Padres a legitimate threat off the bench from the right side.
The other guy, Thompson, is an outfielder in the Yankees organization. He’s old (27) for Triple-A, but last season hit lefties to the tune of .288/.372/.541 while playing for the Columbus Clippers. I have no clue what, if any, plans New York has for this kid, but he seems like someone who could be useful in a Jon Knott kind of way (actually, I wouldn’t mind seeing Knott back in San Diego).
I dunno. The more I look at this, the more convinced I become that Blum is a symptom and not the problem itself. The real issue is that the Padres are carrying 12 pitchers, which creates fewer spots on the bench, which leads to the need for greater versatility among those occupying the spots, which leads to the justification of Blum’s presence on the roster.
Solution? If I called the shots, I would go to an 11-man pitching staff, release Blum, and use my last two roster spots on McAnulty and Perez (assuming he’s ready, willing, and able to play).
But that’s just me…
by Peter Friberg
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
Friday, May 4, 2007
AAA
Luke Carlin: 3 AB, 2 H, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B, BB
Jared Wells: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
AA
No notable performances
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 5 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; 2 SO
Matt Bush: 2 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; 2 BB, SO
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 SO
Kyler Burke: 4 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI - Scuffling!
Commentary:
Jared is out to prove that we haven’t heard the last of him.
Kyler Burke has only gotten hits in 4 of his last 10 games (5 of them, 1 double, in 35 AB). He’s currently hitting .188/.258/.250. I ranked Kyler #9 in my Padres Top 25 back in October 2006. If Kyler’s struggles continue, he could jepordize his long-term future with the Padres. As noted elsewhere, the Padres have 11 picks in the first four rounds (and will likely use a few on power bats) and several “corner” bats doing well in High-A and Double-A (Freese, Blanks, Huffman, Headley, and Venable each could end up as corner outfielders in San Diego ). So Kyler needs to get his swing on if he wants to keep his name in the mix.
Saturday, May 5, 2007
AAA
Paul McAnulty: 3 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; 2B, 2 BB, SO
Vince Sinisi: 4 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2 HR, BB
Tim Stauffer: 3.1 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 4 ER, 0 BB, 4 SO, 1 HR
AA
Cesar Ramos: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO, 1 HR
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 3 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; HR, 2 BB, SO
Matt Bush: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; SO
Wade Leblanc: 6.0 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 SO, 0 HR - Wow!
Low-A
Kyler Burke: 3 AB, 1 H, 0 H, 0 RBI; BB, 2 SO
Commentary:
I’m not convinced Vince Sinisi is a prospect, but that’s a heck of a game.
I am convinced Tim Stauffer is not a prospect.
Stauffer’s 2007 statistics:
11.57 ERA, 11.2 IP, 21 H, 15 R, 15 ER, 5 BB, 9 SO, 2 HR
Grady Fuson has a weekly appointment with Coach John Kentera on the Mighty XX on Thursdays (at about 12:30 p.m. PT, I think). Last week he talked about Cesar Ramos and about how he had put together a few good performances. Fuson also said that the Padres still really like him but that he needed to be more consistent with his delivery. Fuson went on to elaborate that Ramos will occasionally lean toward the plate too early in the delivery, and it ruins his control and command. If he stays back on his push leg, he gets the desired results.
In 30 2/3 innings this year, Wade has allowed only 21 hits and 10 walks while striking out 30. Despite only two of starts being at home this season, Wade has yet to allow a home run. After two rough starts to open the season, this is Wade’s forth consecutive shutout performance.
Last year caused people to question Matt Antonelli as a top prospect. This year he’s answering those questions.
Sunday, May 6, 2007
AAA
Leo Rosales: 1.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 0 BB, 1 SO, 0 HR - 8th save
AA
Chase Headley: 2 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 2 RBI; 2B, BB, SO, SF
Nick Hundley: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; SO - hitting .177
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 3 AB, 1 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 2 BB, 2 SO
Chad Huffman: 3 AB, 2 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; HR, SF
Low-A
Rayner Contreras: 4 AB, 1 R, 1 H, 2 RBI; 2B, SO
Nathaniel Culp: 5.2 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 SO, 0 HR
Ernesto Frieri: 0.1 IP, 1 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 2 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
Apparently this weekend’s report should be called, “The Antonelli Report.” All Matt did was go a combined 4-for-11 with a home run and 4/5 BB/SO ratio while scoring 3 runs and knocking in 4. Matt is now hitting .309/.424/.464.
Thanks as always, Peter. Chris Young and Chuck James hook up in Atlanta on Monday evening. We’ll have the IGD up and running by 3 p.m. PT.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
May 7, 2007 at 9:01 am
If I had KT’s job here is what I would do:
Cut Blummer
Trade Linbrink (his value is high now they need to cash it in)
call up Stansberry
Call up P-Mac
May 7, 2007 at 9:16 am
Nice summary GY. I have not studied or thought deeply about 11 pitchers vs 12. I like having bullpen depth, and, so far, almost all of the pitchers have performed pretty well (M. Thompson may be the sole exception). But I would have to look at the marginal usage of that last guy and decide the value of that vs. a bench guy. But, given that we are 12 pitchers, your point that we need a productive RH utility infielder cannot be argued against. If we cannot find one, and your searching may be indicative that they are in short supply, then we probably need to cut the pitching back.
May 7, 2007 at 9:57 am
#1: Moving Linebrink still makes a certain amount of sense to me depending on who is available. What do you think the Padres could/should get for him?
#2: You know, I wonder if we could talk Brooks Kieschnick out of retirement?
May 7, 2007 at 10:19 am
Re: 3 well with Gordon going down I think the Phillies are the best trade partner, I would like to see the pads package Linebrink and Sledge together for Rowand, that way they will not have to overpay Cameron at the end of the season.
May 7, 2007 at 10:23 am
well I take that back rowand will be a FA after this year.
May 7, 2007 at 10:23 am
Re: the Blum situation, if I’m KT and becoming convinced Blum is not the answer, first thing I do is call up Robles and get a good look at him before making any dramatic moves, i.e. to make sure what I saw from Robles before can be trusted.
So, I’m hoping we’re in that stage of this process…redundant parts for a short window while KT gets comfy w/ Robles and shops around for a piece to add, in our organization or outside it, to replace Blum’s bench spot.
(keep your fingers crossed and lucky rabbit’s feet handy)
May 7, 2007 at 10:34 am
I talked about this with Ed earlier this morning, and here’s how you have to look at this.
Consider what the Friars’ needs are. Not niceties, but needs. Ed mentions the need for a true power bat, which is definitely there. In order to move from your strength (bullpen), you have to markedly improve in an area of weakness.
Rowand is not the kind of bat that substantially improves your team or truly fills a weakness.
If you wouldn’t move Linebrink for Betemit last year (even though we’ve seen what he’s turned out to be) when third was an area of need, that may present a possibility for what it would take this time around.
May 7, 2007 at 10:43 am
Re: 7 Rowand is more a looking to 08 move, I thought he only had 3 years of MLB expericne but by the end of the year he will have 6.
May 7, 2007 at 10:53 am
From today’s UT:
“Mike Cameron has been hitting into tough luck for several games now, and he is fed up with it. Yesterday, Cameron lined out to center fielder Alfredo Amezaga in his first at-bat, then hit a 375-foot flyout to the right-center warning track in his next at-bat.
After the game, Cameron was told he should burn a bat to change his luck, and he pretty much agreed, flagging down clubhouse man Brian Prilaman and telling him: “I need new bats. These bats are stupid. It’s time to get new ones.”
OK, I guess we can consider the whole Cameron problem solved then…
May 7, 2007 at 10:55 am
OK, was this planted by Buddy Black? This is really nice and all, but you still need to be able to hit your weight…
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....dsmon.html
May 7, 2007 at 11:01 am
If you’re really that high on Rowand, talk to the White Sox about Brian Anderson. He’s the same guy, only cheaper and not yet arbitration-eligible.
May 7, 2007 at 11:10 am
If we’re talking to the Phillies about an outfielder, let’s get Victorino. He’s still fairly young (26), a good defensive center fielder, and a better hitter than Rowand.
May 7, 2007 at 11:15 am
Steve C, in no way would it make sense for us to go after Rowand. He’s a media darling because his all-out hustle is fun to watch (see Eric Owens), but he not THAT much of an asset to his team (career .283/.340/.452 hitter)… The fact that’s he hitting so well right now (.363/.444/.566) in a hitters park actually suggests he would tank hard in Petco. Players usually revert to form. When a career .330 hitter is hitting .264, we should expect that player to revert to form and hit at a higher level and finish back at a level consistent with his career norms (see Albert Pujols). Likewise, when Aaron Rowand hits .356 as a career .283 hitter, we should expect him to revert to form as well…
May 7, 2007 at 11:15 am
9: Maybe he needs Jobu to come and take fear from bats. Let’s take up a collection for cigars and whisky.
Remember when the Padres were after Tony Graffanino but the Brewers blocked it? He would have been a nice upgrade over Blum. I was onboard with letting Todd Walker go but if we knew Robles was going to be this effective we could have kept Walker and cut Blum.
One way the Padres can be more effective with the short bench is send Maddux up there as a pinch hitter in bunting situations. Next to Robles he’s probably our best bunter.
May 7, 2007 at 11:17 am
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....-jake.html
Nice writeup of how awesome Jake has been thus far this year. He’s actually had 36 K’s in his last 21 innings.
May 7, 2007 at 11:27 am
Re: 13 its not that im that high on Rowand I just dont think Cameron will be back next year and the pads wont spend Ichiro, Jones or Tori Hunter type money.
The padres have a strong bullpen the Phillies need help there so it seemed like a good fit but if you look at post #5 I retracted that because Rowand will be a FA at the end of the year.
May 7, 2007 at 11:43 am
#14: I like the idea of using a capable pitcher to bunt. Why can’t all the pitchers bunt? That will come in useful throughout the season.
Was Oscar Robles signed after Walker was cut?
May 7, 2007 at 11:54 am
3.
What do you think about Linebrink being involved in a Austin Kearns, Willy Mo Pena, Kevin Mench, (doubt we could get him) Elijah Dukes deal? Not that any of these names make me really jump through the roof (except maybe Dukes) but but seeing as how we could use a right handed bat and these teams could probably use some bullpen help it’s a thought I suppose. I just can’t think of many aquire-able right handed guys not named Aaron Rowand with any sort of a decent track record that I would want to give up Linebrink for. We definitely need an extra stick from somewhere and I would hate to see Linebrink walk while getting nothing in return. Tough call!!!
May 7, 2007 at 12:15 pm
#7: Right, movement for the sake of movement doesn’t help anyone. The Padres would need to shore up another area of weakness if they’re going to reduce a current area of strength.
#12: I’m glad to see that Victorino has been able to overcome his season buried on our bench and turn himself into a big-league player, but his upside is a slightly better version of Dave Roberts and I’m not sure how much I’d be willing to give for that.
#17: No. Robles signed on Feb 19, Walker was released on Mar 26.
#18: I think you’re on the right track here. A guy like Kearns would be a great fit for us. Cincy gave him away to the Nats, but they seem to recognize his value and I doubt they’ll make the same mistake.
Good stuff…
May 7, 2007 at 12:21 pm
#18: One other point about Linebrink. There’s a good chance he’ll be a Type A free agent (top 20% now rather than 30% under old CBA). To give you an idea, guys like Justin Speier and Dustin Hermanson were among the top 20% of FA relievers this past off-season. Linebrink stacks up pretty well against them. If the Pads offer arbitration, they’ll get two premium picks for him.
Full list of last winter’s FA’s for reference:
http://www.usatoday.com/sports.....nkings.htm
May 7, 2007 at 12:24 pm
KG @ BP made this comment today …
Wade LeBlanc, LHP, High-A Lake Elsinore (Padres)
A second-round pick last year, LeBlanc was a classic college over-performer-–throwing strikes, spinning a good breaking ball, changing speeds well, and dominating less-advanced hitters. With his polish, the Padres began his full-season debut in the High-A California League, and he gave up nine runs in his first two starts. Those are also the only runs he’s given up this year. On Saturday night, LeBlanc was at his best, allowing just one hit over six innings while striking out 10 Stockton batters. In his last four outings, the 22-year-old southpaw has gone 23.1 innings without allowing a run, giving up just 11 hits, walking six, and punching out 26. With an 85-88 mph fastball, it’s hard to see him ever sitting at the front end of a big league rotation, but it’s not hard to at least see him in one, and that makes him a pretty good prospect.
May 7, 2007 at 12:28 pm
BP’s STAT OF THE DAY
Top 5 NL Team Defenses, by Defensive Efficiency
Team, DEF_EFF
New York Mets, .740
Chicago Cubs, .732
Washington Nationals, .721
Houston Astros, .715
San Diego Padres, .715
May 7, 2007 at 12:48 pm
19: PECOTA has Victorino’s park neutral, weighted mean projection at .289/.346/.449 this year. His defense is considered above average for a center fielder. And he’s 26. I don’t know anything about his health track record, but it seems like those things make him significantly better than Dave Roberts ever has been and a good option for center field for several years.
Plus, he wears a batting helmet with two ear flaps, so he’s just a regular guy like you and me.
May 7, 2007 at 1:01 pm
#23: You may be right about Victorino. It’s hard for me to forget how awful he looked when he was here. Not that it was his fault, of course, but first impressions…
May 7, 2007 at 2:10 pm
Portland Beaver Craig Stansberry had two more hits today including his 15th double of the year in only 120+ at bats. Stansberry is only 25 years old. The right handed hitting Stansberry has started at third base and shortstop over the past few weeks. He may just fit in quite well for the Pads as he is a good glove man, with decent speed and some power. I
May 7, 2007 at 2:23 pm
Re: 18 Both the Nats and D-rays have no shot this year so they will not give up young talent for a 1 year rental, The Red Sox may give up Pena but I dont think they will give up that much for Linebrink,
Kevin Mench is a deal that may work well for both teams, the Brewers look like they may have a shot this year and have ample OF talent on their roster.
May 7, 2007 at 2:59 pm
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2862901
ESPN2 will be televising the MLB draft this June - good year for the Padres to have all those extra picks. I’m actually pretty excited about this.
May 7, 2007 at 3:45 pm
No way to Linebrink for Willy Mo Pena. Willy Mo only has a good baseball name. He’s not a good enough everyday player/batter.
May 7, 2007 at 3:57 pm
I just wish Walker batted RH, and it would be done.
On a different note, I am having growing confidence in both Cameron and KK. Cameron is suddenly using all fields, meaning the “pitch it on the outside of the plate, produce ground out to left side” may not work as often. He still has a quick bat.
KK, still not swinging with confidence, but showing patience and easy power, though mostly translating to sac flies. He seems to be recognizing the pitches much better. Man, if he could get his feel, that would be a big boost to our offense.
No idea on Blum. Black has something like you need 100 AB’s to really know what the player can do. Blum is at 40; not sure we can handle another 60 of 336 OPS ball. It really is hard to believe Blum has only had 40 AB’s. It feels like he always up there, flailing.
May 9, 2007 at 4:00 am
I still say Omar Infante!
May 9, 2007 at 11:33 am
I must be the only person that likes Blummer. He was a solid pinch hitter last year and when he was filling in for greene we was very good with his glove, at time i think even better than Greene because he didnt make everything so acrobatic.
As for Linebrink, SELL HIM NOW! The guy is past his peak and clubs are going to start to realize this and his stock will just keep going down down down. We need to get all that we can for him right now. We have good talent in the pen and at least 3 guys that could pitch the 8th besides Linebrink. i also think we should had dropped hampson down and kept Royce Ring up here.