first pitch: 12:35 p.m. PT
television: none
matchup: Jake Peavy (2-0, 0.90 ERA) vs Livan Hernandez (1-0, 1.80 ERA)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com
It’s probably too early to call this a trend, but there’s reason to be encouraged by Jake Peavy’s performance so far in ‘07. Forget the ERA, and look at pitch efficiency:
| Date | IP | TBF | #PIT | P/PA | P/IP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 3 | 6 | 23 | 98 | 4.26 | 16.3 |
| Apr 8 | 7 | 28 | 103 | 3.68 | 14.7 |
| Apr 14 | 7 | 26 | 100 | 3.85 | 14.3 |
Again, who knows whether Peavy will be able to sustain lower pitch counts over the course of a full season. Wouldn’t it be nice if he could?
211 Comments
If there ever was a need for a gem, today is the day. Go Jake!! (and, go offense – we need you just as much if not more today)
Looks like Black took my suggestion for the line-up from the earlier post (Cruz second, OG third, Cameron fifth). It will be my fault if it doesn’t work.
Go Padres, wish I could be at Petco sitting in the sun enjoying the 2-for-1 hotdog deal. We need a good performance all around today, how about 8-1, that sounds just about perfect.
I like this lineup. Particularly Cruz’ lifetime 1000+ OPS vs. Livan
They’re making him throw lots of pitches early on. Our friend from last nite is manning home plate tonite, so hopefully we won’t have any issues.
Good to see somebody in our rotation knows how to hold runners.
Sounds like Jake had him completely fooled.
Brian Giles leads the team with 5.7 runs above replacement.
Now would be a real good time for Cameron to break out of his slump.
Bases juiced. C’mon Cameron, deep fly ball. I’m not asking for a slam here.
Cameron is dead last with-3.1 RAR.
I’d rather have him K then GIDP if I had to choose.
-3.3
That will work. Simple fly ball.
Okay, that works.
Cameron got the job done, but pulled an outside pitch…
Yeah, but it was hit really well. You can get away with doing that against Livan Hernandez.
Ha, typical padres rally
announcers on mlb.tv (not sure which feed it was) said “typical padres rally, single-walk-walk for the bases loaded and they only manage one run”…. yup, that sounds about right…
Those are the Padres radio guys.
We’re apparently averse to scoring more than one run early in the game.
JaKKKKe!
Jake is throwing a ton of pitches.
4 Ks in 1.2 IP. Could be one of those days eh? I just hope he doesn’t get his pitch count up too high with this behavior.
wow, apparently I haven’t been paying enough attention – does every team put on such a shift for Russel Branyan?
Every time Branyan makes a non strike out out, I feel disappointed. C’mon, Branyan, ground outs are for Marcus Giles, you’re here to walk, strike out, and hit home runs.
The offense needs to take the pressure off of Jake. 34 pitches through 2 isn’t bad, but isn’t great… C’mon guys.
A two out hit!
34 through two means he would throw 136 to pitch eight. Not so good.
wtg NOG! that’s a big run with a clutch 2-out hit (even if it was a bloop).
26: LOL
Situational hitting? Are we sure that the San Diego Padres are on the field today?
Mike Thompson down, Justin Hampson up.
Are we really fretting about pitch counts after 2 innings?
Come OG – BE ORANGE! (i’m borrowing this line from another blogger)
I can’t speak for “we.”
But I will say that the Padres are on pace to win 9-0.
34: Yep, we’re fretting. After 12 and 14 inning games, absolutely.
“We always watch the pitch count with Jake.”
–Jerry Coleman
5 k’s for Peavy through 3… not a bad pace…
Peavy: 47 pitches through three innings. Pace: 94 through six innings.
His season ERA is now 0.47.
8-0, actually.
Me resembling old cranky ex-pitcher/fan/coach: Pitchers’ durability has been weakened, er, wussified by contemporary baseball’s obsession with pitch counts, 5-man rotations and innings limits. Discuss.
Seriously, “everyone” is hurt all the time. I believe Rob Neyer has done some myth-wrecking about the “old-schooler” POV — pitchers threw 40 starts and 300 innings with little repercussion in the past — but I’d have to go searching for it.
Sorry, correction on ERA: 0.78
42: I agree.
42: Bill James has written the same on the subject.
“I don’t know if he was trying to catch the ball or dodge it.” – Jerry
Go Branyan! Our boys are getting consecutive hits!!!
Let’s break it open hear and not look back.
1B plays olee with hopper. 3-0, Padres. Pace: 9-0
There you go Russell, treat Livan like the 4.5 ERA innings-eater that he truly is…
re 46: That was great.
Jake with a 2-run triple!!! Way to help your own cause!!!
Awesome!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jacob Edward Peavy tripled to left field?
I loved it last season when Werndl was griping about “pitchers today” and pointed to Randy Jones as an example of a pitcher from yesteryear who racked up CG after CG. And I thought, “Jeez, Billy, how many years did RJ pitch (and pitch effectively)? Can’t you pick a better example?” Can the man even lift his arm? Apparently, if he can fish, right?
Wow. Triple by Peavy, helping his own cause. 6-0. Pace: 18-0.
Off the bat, Jerry thought it was gone. Let’s get him in.
Anyone watching this? Should he have gone for the triple?
The throw was a little, but it could have been a close play. Peavy slid. He used quite a bit of energy on that triple and coming home on the sac fly, and he could have been involved in some contact at third if the throw was better.
Hey, he’s a ball player.
Both Giles brothers are batting .308. Kinda amusing.
after the last few games, does anyone else feel that this is kind of a waste?
56: hard to say. With only 1 out, maybe. Looked like a bad throw, though I didn’t see a replay. 3rd baseman came down “without the ball” and laid a tag that looked like Peavy would have been out.
The left fielder was retreating and dove the ball but missed. The ball bounced off of the wall. And then mlb tv froze and I missed the rest of the play, and subsequent replays have been too jittery for me to tell. I do know his slide into third was pretty ugly.
59: No.
Stephen –
You lose credibility listening to Werndl – quoting him is inexcusable.
I recommend a self-imposed time out, you determine the duration based upon your level of embarassment.
did we just score 5 runs? I’ve been taking vicatin today and there’s a chance that I’m snoozing right now and just dreaming it….
Six Ks for Peavy, actually ties his season high.
62: right, neither did I, just checking.
I have to go the gym now (bummer), but I’m glad to do it with a 7-0 lead.
So after Peavy finishes pitching today, can we switch him over to third base to keep his bat in the lineup?
He already pinch-hits.
68: I hear we need a new CF…
Peavy: 66 pitches.
63: Quoting him as a means to mock him. Can I scoot by with a warning? I was just telling a colleague that I’ve cut way back on my XX this year. Haven’t even lurked at the Padres msg board since last season. Feeling pretty good about myself.
70: Seriously, when is Cameron going to fix his approach at the plate?
A-rod with a three-run game winning home run today… unbelievable….
74: That guy is clutch. haha!
Wow! A base hit with nobody on from Cameron!
Stunning.
72: I definitely took it as you mocking him and thus no need for the timeout.
Werndl doesn’t have the brain horsepower to connect RJ’s workload with his 10 year career. The last 6 of those years he averaged below a 100 ERA+; 78 was pretty good, the other years went from average to bad.
good for cammy, maybe that will get him going…
Now if Khalil can jump on the Cameron bandwagon.
79: Don’t lump Khalil in with Cameron. Khalil has been involved in lots of important scoring plays this year.
Also, Khalil doesn’t seem like he’s K-ing as much this year. What are the K comparisons between Khalil & Cameron?
WTF? I’m on a conference call for, like, 20 minutes and the boys bust out with six runs. Wow…
78: Hopefully it’s the result of fixing what was wrong and not a fluke.
Cameron hit the ball on the screws his first time up with the bases loaded. Unfortunately for him, it was hit right at the left fielder. This is not a matter of clutchness, this is a matter of Cameron currently struggling at the plate, and, in the first inning today, getting unlucky.
1st scoreless inning by the Padres offense in 16 hours
80: I’ll lump Khalil’s 262 OBP right in with Cameron. The XBH are nice, but him making outs has contributed to a lot of our struggles, too.
He’s struck out 13 times, Cameron 15.
Khalil’s actually hitting at about league average this year. He’s just been doing it with extra base hits.
Khalil’s wOBA is about a hundred points higher than Cameron’s. There’s no comparison.
Power can make up for some lack of OBP, but not that much.
Geez, Jake. We need you to go 7.
Geoff –
Do me a favor, can you schedule another conference call for tomorrow night around 7:30
Thx
My points, which I posted earlier in a different thread, is that Khalil has scored the game-winning run in 3 games already this year. Although his average isn’t way up there, he’s geting on in situations that matter.
On an unrelated note, why is Jake giving up so many hits now?
89: He has a .314 wOBA. MLB average is .319. wOBA is based in linear weights, so it models run scoring accurately.
92: I have to imagine the triple and scoring on the sac fly took it out of him.
92: Bad luck, and he’s missing his spots a little. But mostly bad luck. The balls aren’t being hit hard, they’re just falling in.
C’mon Jake, stop the bleeding. 3 runs this inning is way too much.
Geoff, go back on the phone.
crapburgers!
#91: I’m trying to schedule another call for right now. Maybe I should just turn off the radio.
we really needed jake to go a long way today..our bully doesn’t need anymore work..
95: It happens. Also, the ump has been squeezing both starters today if you believe Gameday (which I’m not sure I do).
WOOT! Out of the inning!
92: He’s also making unproductive outs in situations that matter.
93: I know you love wOBA, but I don’t. A player making outs almost 75% of the time is not productive. Any one XBH can only do so much damage. And the point was never that Greene was as bad as Cameron, just that he needs to start being more productive.
Well, thanks Jake.
100: The pitch location data in the basic version of Gameday is (so I hear) entered by a human who judges the location by eye. The enhanced version uses an automated system that is supposedly very accurate. The enhanced system is missing a lot of data from last night’s game and looks to be totally offline today.
102: Why do you dislike wOBA? It’s based on actual data.
103: Thanks.
WOW – a bit (not completely) surprised to see Jake back out there. …. definitely trying to rest the bully…
C’mon Jake.
So much for giving our bullpen a rest. He was looking so sharp today too.
I have to imagine Jake is tired from running the bases.
Is the D-Backs BABIP really .563? This is insane.
time to yank Jake.
This is bad news.
108: 9 of 16.
104: I just prefer the BP stats, VORP and WARP. VORP for pure offense, WARP for a more complete picture. By either of those Greene is better than Cameron, which I wasn’t disputing. But you’re simply not going to help your team if you make outs 3/4 of the time.
What should have been a cruise is turning into The Poseidon Adventure, possibly because Jake had to prove something by stretching that triple.
i really think bud waited too long to pull jake..
112: I gotta assume that the triple explains this. He was on cruise control today.
I hope we can salvage this. I’d hate to blow a seven run lead.
Peavy retired the D-Backs in order the inning after the triple.
112: BP stats have him at league average, too. Also, the replacement level on WARP is way too low and FRAR/FRAA are poor metrics relative to pbp fielding metrics (of course those aren’t available for anything more than a couple years ago).
How did the Mets not use Bell?
And what’s up with the cathcer’s interference?
Catcher’s interference?
HEATH BELL IS AMAZING… BUT, did they call catcher’s interference??
We need to get like four back right now.
How does Heath bell not get rattled there? What a helluva pickup. It’s a wonder what a little time around Trevor can do for a guy…
Are our 7-8-9 guys able to pitch today?
Hey, all! Been busy for most of the game at that work thing, but I just had to jump over here and comment.
What is up with Rob Bowen getting two catcher’s interference calls in one week?
And, I’m noticing a trend with Black that Boch had. And I don’t like it. Bud’s not pulling the starters when they should be pulled. I understand that pitchers want to clean up their own messes and Black being a former pitcher probably knows that mentality. But, the win is all important. Jake shouldn’t have come on to the mound in the sixth. His great offense today drained his energy and strength. What was a rout is now a nail-biter.
Heath Bell = Stud
Heath Bell is the MAN!
IIRC, KT almost traded linebrink for this guy. Must have seen something in him.
124: I think a lot of it has to do with how much we’ve had to use the bullpen.
That’s my boy!!!!
HR Mr. Greene
Okay I have not been to any games yet so I don”t know for sure but did I just hear the San Francisco tug boat horn over the radio when KG just hit that home run?
and Bowen crushes it! NICE
I s’pose Bell’s done for the day … who’s next from the ‘pen?
Definitely heard it that time too! Why are we trying to copy that BS? Whatever! Way to go Bowen!!!
I meant “Way” to go Bowen!!!
maybe Bowen’s feeling the heat a bit with LaForest hitting so well and with him making all those interference mistakes and all…
Just got home from work. Good job so far from Bell, especially.
Not quite appropriate for an IGD thread, but I brought it up last year in the post-season: Bill James, many years ago, discovered that, statistically, power pitchers tend to fare poorly in day games. Jake is pretty awful in day games (remember his start in last years NLDS?; that’s what caused me to look this stuff up). Peavy got lit up again today…wonder why this happens and, more importantly, if there’s any way to prevent it. Just thinking out loud. And damn, Bowen just went deep! Hell yeah!
136: I think power pitcher tend to be flyball pitchers and fly ball tend to do more damage during the day because they travel better.
Petco in the daytime is almost like Coors Field without the humidor.
Khalil’s wOBA is up to .339 with that homer. Gotta love the huge swings in rate stats early in the season.
138 … wow … day vs night park factors? anyone seen data that supports this?
That’s better.
Richard, I’m eating, not ducking you.
141: haha. Nobody thought you were ducking me, I’m sure.
Wow. OG struck out? How did that happen?
Heyt, just got home….like I said earlier – who did the Padres send out in exchange for Hampson?
144: McAnulty, I think.
What was that? Singled to pitcher?
Anybody? A botch DP grounder to pitcher?
Courtesy of Yahoo, Peavy’s career day/night splits:
GS W L CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
Day
42 17 15 2 1 249.1 230 129 122 35 102 250 4.40 1.33 .244
Night
99 42 30 3 2 634.2 555 233 217 63 184 612 3.08 1.16 .233
144 … Thompson … http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/20070419-1331-bbn-padres-moves.html
144: see 33.
Rats. LM beat me to it.
Also, here’s info on Rakers …
Enter Rakers, 30, who had allowed one run over nine innings with Portland and – more important – hadn’t pitched in three days.
Rakers appeared in 13 games with Baltimore over the 2004 and ‘05 seasons (1-0, 3.50 ERA in 18 innings) before missing the 2006 season because of an injury. He had surgery on March 1, 2006 to repair a tear in the labrum of his right shoulder.
Rakers has a 2.51 ERA in 330 minor league appearances.
Go CLAW!
Wow, pretty quick trigger for Hampson …
To confirm what someone else suggested, biggest factor in Jake’s ERA difference day vs night is in HR/9.
Day: 1.26
Night: 0.89
It’s the improved carry of the ball in drier air.
How about five runs this inning and Rakers?
Here’s a pic of Rakers … http://www.signonsandiego.com/sports/padres/xtra/2007/04/who_ya_gonna_call.html … nice grip … might see him today?
Every pitcher is better at night, because the ball is harder to see for batters. This was the case before Petco.
Updated season ERAs:
Peavy: 2.49
Bell: 0.00
Hampson: infinity
Meredith: 0.00
Anybody else’s GameDay puking today?
155 … good idea … seems we’re headed that way …
http://www.sportsline.com/mlb/gamecenter/live/MLB_20070419_ARI@SD … this has been working for me …
re: 159
see 103.
Greene walked. YEAY!
I am on gameday on dial up. The strike zone for Nippert suggested he was getting very squeezed (many balls being in their little zone). Is that true?
Branyan (TTO): RBI walk
Branyan walked too. Nice ABs by the boys.
Nippert has thrown 25 pitches to 4 batters … no outs …
Nipper can’t find the plate with a road map.
#136: James talks about this starting on p. 260 of the ‘84 Baseball Abstract. Factors mentioned include the way the ball carries, differences in visibility, and stamina.
157: Not really true. Just a quick look at the career stats for some of the starters on the two teams playing today… David Wells is similar to Peavy’s splits, much worse in the day. But Maddux and Webb are much better at night (ground ball pitchers not affected as much by dry air), and Livan Hernandez and Randy Johnson don’t have much difference, but if anything are also slightly better night time pitchers.
BPro on Rakers:
As far as the good news, it’s always nice to see Rakers up, but that’s in part because I’m always predisposed to favoring anyone who throws a pretty good forkball, and in part because I’m always going to hope that Oriole refugees get a chance to set their careers aright once they escape Clan Angelos’ playpen.
–
Some call it a split finger, some call it a forkball. There is a difference between the two, although not much of one. I hope it’s more of a forkball because not many guys throw one anymore.
Those five dreaded words: “Blum on deck to pinch-hit.”
re: 170
That’s a small smaple size of pitchers. Not every player follows the rule.
See 169.
#172: Hopefully that DP he just hit into is meaningless.
Blum (GIDP) is terrible at his job.
Ground into a force out to the LF. I’ll have to check that on TV.
Anyone else wish we had someone else that could play shortstop so we could get rid of Blum?
175: But don’t expect any broadcaster except maybe Matt V to remember all the times Blum has been useless. He can go 0 for now until September and most of them will talk about his “double” in Chicago.
Up 5 … that’s enough to see Rakers, right?
173: Fly ball pitchers are more likely to be affected, but small sample size explains a lot.
173: Small sample size – absolutely right. But I was just reacting to this phrase:
“Every pitcher is better at night…”
Sorry, a bit petty. I get that way sometimes.
176: Ball should have been caught. Runner on second had to hold up.
So is the consensus of this group that that AB should have gone to KK?
181: Every pitcher should be better at night. If their stats say otherwise, it’s probably due to the small sample size.
183: Yeah. He’s a better hitter than Blum.
It was an error that was called a hit, I think. But the LF and SS had a shot at it, and both muffed it. Then they got the runner at third, I think, on a force. RBI hit or an error, depending on what terrible scorekeeper is there.
Ball game. Drive home safely.
Game over. Yeay! Padres win!!
I think it was ruled a fielders choice with an RBI
Nice W after 2 grueling games …
OT … Klesko with a big day … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270419126
189: That’s kind.
Rakers ERA: 0.00
Greene is slugging .532.
AP notes: Manager Bud Black said the Padres are discussing whether to contact the league office about David Wells’ ejection by umpire Doug Eddings on Wednesday night. Wells, who was jawing at Eddings from the dugout in the 12th inning, said the umpire rubbed his belly and told the pitcher, “You’re fat.” Eddings denied that, saying, “That’s false. I would never.” … Eddings worked behind the plate Thursday. … The Padres recalled LHP Justin Hampson from Triple-A Portland before the game and optioned RHP Mike Thompson to the Beavers. … When Black pulled Peavy in the sixth, Hampson came running in from the bullpen before being waved back. Bell then came on. … Hampson had a shaky Padres debut in the eighth, allowing two singles and falling behind Alberto Callaspo 2-0 before being pulled.
193: .242/.288/.532
It’s hard to complain about the .288 when it’s next to a .532.
195: And how.
195: That’s a pretty crazy .280 iso slugging.
178: Matt V falls prey to the legend of Blum’s clutchness too. Last night he said Blum was the team’s best pinch hitter.
194: I didn’t catch Eddings rubbing his stomach but he was definitley jaw jacking at the bench before and after the ejection, I could see his head bobbing up and down all the way from the upper deck behind home plate.
On other news:
great read on Major League the movie:
http://thesoulofbaseball.blogspot.com/2007/04/movie-scouting-report-3.html
GY … Corey Brock gives you a pretty good plug today …
http://coreybrock.mlblogs.com/coreybrock/2007/04/mandatory_readi.html
I was looking at the AskBA column … http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/askba/263712.html … and was reminded that, while we got KCamy in the Rule 5, we also lost Joakim Soria, who is now the closer for KC … the Padres’ org does know a thing or 2 about relief pitchers …
McAnulty in LF for the Beavers tonight … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_04_19_srcaaa_poraaa_1 … Germano on the mound …
Chase Headley with HR #2 at AA San Antonio … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_04_19_sanaax_mroaax_1
Cedric (The Great) with 4 singles … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?sid=milb&t=g_box&gid=2007_04_19_burafx_ftwafx_1 … but whassup with DH’ing?
Matty V has a ways to go. His devotion to fielding pct drives me up the wall. (It’s scary up there.)
Good win for the Pads today. Two weeks, 16 games into the season, and although we would obviously like the record to be better, the team’s played well.
The best things so far:
Marcus Giles has been great offensively and defensively, much better so far than Barfield was last season – and Barfield was pretty good.
Peavy, aside from today’s start (and it was a day game, so he should get a little leeway; see 136 for the begining of this thought process/thread) has been really good.
Maddux – Pretty good- 1 amazing start, 1 start in which he made 2 bad pitches and an uncharacteristic WP, and 1 start in which it was 40 degrees and crazy wind.
Wells – 2 great starts, one in which he got shellacked. If he starts 25 games and is great 2/3 of the time the Pads will be in good shape.
Greene has been hitting for power, albeit impatient. The bullpen is very, very good. Bell looks awesome. A-Gon is going to be an all-star one day. Jose Cruz has been invaluable off the bench.
Bad things:
Kouzmanoff has just looked terrible. It’s not just bad outcomes – he has terrible at-bats. It might not be a bad idea to give him a couple weeks at AAA, just to mash on some weaker pitchers and develop some confidence. Because right now he looks totally over matched.
Mike Cameron has been really bad, offensively and defensively. All of his history suggests he’ll pull through, but I worry about his age. If we don’t have him then we have no center fielder to speak of.
Clay Hensley has been terrible. Like, hiding an injury terrible. I really hope that’s not the case, because the Pads next starter is Thompson, who has been beyond terrible.
Bud Black hasn’t particularly distinguished himself positively or negatively yet. He seems to let his starters absorb some beatings, but that may be due to the shortened pen the last few days than anything else. He also seems to love Jose Cruz, Jr., which is okay for now, when Cruz is going well, but may be tragic once Cruz starts his descent into being, you know, Jose Cruz, Jr.
Signing Russ Branyan for this season might be the best move the Padres made this off season, when all is said and done.
Blum is living off a couple great postseason at-bats. That’s it. That’s the list. He’s not good otherwise.
206 – nice link … thanks …
207 – agree … one major “bad thing” you left off = defense vs baserunners … we’ve given up a lot of SBs …
208 – gotta believe that KT sees & knows this … and is working to improve here … I think the solution will be a trade where what we give up is $$$ (ie. we’re not likely to have players that we are willing to give up because of their value to this year’s team, nor are we likely to have players that others are will to take because of their future value) … and those kinds of trades probably are not yet available … we gotta wait until some team decides to punt 2007 …
207 … re: KK down to AAA … Stansberry played 3B for Portland tonight … and hit his first HR … and is now hitting .370 … with OPS ~1.000 … seems like he could fill in while KK gets his feet under him … perhaps if the situation doesn’t improve in a couple of weeks … and Stansberry is still doing well …
#209 -
SBs don’t really amount to much – something like 15% of SBs lead to a run scored. It’s less than that against a good pitching team. Maddux is going to the HOF and he never cares about SBs. It’s frustrating to watch teams run at will, but in the long run SBs are only slightly negative, unless they really impact a pitcher’s psyche. And even if SBs were a huge problem, I’m not sure what we would do to fix the problem….both Padres catchers have average to below-average arms vs. runners, and with Young and Maddux in the rotation, SBs are going to be a given.
Also, with parity, I’m not sure where the Pads are going to find bench reinforcements better than what we have now. Perhaps the Astros deal Ausmus, but that’s a minor move. I think SD is better off with their current roster, managed correctly.
Diamondbacks, Padres and Dodgers all predicted to win by DodgerSims tomorrow. vr, Xei
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[...] first 4 innings. He suddenly became very hittable in the 5th, speculation amongst the commenters at Ducksnorts was that he was tired or amped up from running the bases after his first career triple. Jake had an [...]