Friday Links (6 Apr 07)
Fri, Apr 6, 2007
by Geoff Young
Tough loss for the Padres on Thursday (recap | box score). A sweep at PhoneCo would have been nice, but winning the series is a good way to start the season.
What’s crazy is that even despite the slapstick antics of Khalil Greene, Kevin Kouzmanoff, and Terrmel Sledge, as well as an inconsistent strike zone from home plate umpire Paul Emmel, the Pads almost came back against Armando Benitez in the ninth. You think the Giants’ new manager misses his old bullpen?
Enough of the rhetorical questions; let’s get to the links:
- Paul Emmel Helps Giants Avoid Sweep (San Diego Spotlight). Rich Campbell offers his thoughts on Thursday’s loss. What happened to Clay Hensley in the fifth? Rich sets it straight:
Ray Durham should have struck out. Even the pitch tracker on Gameday at ESPN has pitches called balls touching the strike zone. It was horrid. It was ridiculous. I have change in my pocket with a greater diameter than the strike zone as it existed to Paul Emmel during that at bat.
Word.
- Looking Forward to 2007 - San Diego Padres (Baseball Think Factory). Calling my own number here. This came out earlier in the week and I forgot to mention it. I’ve got the Padres winning 85 games; that might be a tad conservative, but I’m comfortable with it. The division is going to be very tight.
- Projected Standings for the 2007 Season (Diamond Mind Baseball, via Lem in the comments). The folks at Diamond Mind ran 200 simulations of the season. They’ve got the Padres taking the NL West with 88 wins. Seems reasonable to me. Actually, anything between 85 and 90 wins seems reasonable to me.
- Scratch is there if itch is to spend (San Diego Union-Tribune). There’s talk about having payroll flexibility to make a move for Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, or Torii Hunter this summer, but here’s my favorite part:
The Padres expect to set a franchise record for spending on amateurs this year. In addition to having seven extra draft picks, the club is prepared to offer a seven-figure sum to pitcher Matt Latos, the Padres’ 11th-round draft pick last June who is pitching for a community college in Florida.
“He’s pretty special,” Towers said of the right-hander, whose fastball has been clocked in the high 90s. “We may spend close to $10 million in the amateur draft.”
The draft has been an area of relative weakness in recent years, and the team is taking aggressive steps to remedy that situation. Signing Latos would be huge.
- The Brothers Giles (San Diego Magazine, via Gaslamp Ball). Not the usual wackiness that we’ve come to expect, this is a grandfather’s wistful recollection of time spent hunting and fishing with his grandkids.
- Fort Wayne Wizards 2007 season preview (MadFriars). John Conniff provides a quick look at the Padres’ Low-A club. Kyler Burke, Cedric Hunter, Aaron Breit, and Drew Miller are the big names here. There’s also a little Q&A with Grady Fuson.
Update: A couple more things I’m involved in just got published:
- Two on Two: NL West Preview (Baseball Analysts). Rich Lederer, Patrick Sullivan, Jon Weisman, and I dissect the division. We do not, however, put it back together again.
- BLBR Extra - The Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual (Big League Baseball Report). Joe Aiello was good enough to give me some time on his podcast to pimp the book. There’s even a contest for a free copy. Listen to the show, then call the BLBR buzz line at 206-666-BUZZ with your response; leave your name and location at the beginning of the message, and an email where Joe can contact you at the end.
Happy Friday, folks. Get ready for Opening Night at Petco Park; I’ll be out at the game, but we’ll have the IGD up and running by 6 p.m. PT. Be sure to buy the Ducksnorts 2007 Baseball Annual if you haven’t already done so and keep spreading the word!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
April 6, 2007 at 8:44 am
I’m with Pat (#153 from last night’s IGD … http://ducksnorts.com/blog/200.....ment-37937) … El Hombre!
April 6, 2007 at 8:52 am
Another model that returns favorable forecast for Padres …
http://www.livescience.com/oth....._math.html
April 6, 2007 at 8:54 am
I’m not one to complain about umpiring but that was atrocious. Even though it was clearly in the Giants favor I think Durham was whining about called strikes every game of that series.
Was anyone else as impressed with Kevin Cameron as I was? Terrific stuff, his command was spot on and he worked quickly and aggressively. If he keeps pitching like that I think we’re going to hear more Linebrink trade rumors again this year.
April 6, 2007 at 8:59 am
3: I’ll be stunned if we’re in contention and trade Linebrink. That’s not like trading Ismael Valdez.
No fun seeing the defense collapse last night. Brought back memories of the seemingly endless losses in SF from 2001 to 2003, when every Padre appeared to regress to age 8.
April 6, 2007 at 9:29 am
One thing about the recent Union Tribune article, the reason they want to try and sign Latos right now is because of the new draft rules. The new rules only give you about a month to sign all your players so there is no more draft and follow on players from Junior Colleges: what the Padres are doing now. So I’m not sure if investing more in the drafted players will help but the prices on everyone might rise..
April 6, 2007 at 9:32 am
anyone else going to the game tonight?
April 6, 2007 at 9:37 am
Love the P/PA chart, Geoff. See how little difference their is between Doc and NOG, about 1 pitch every 13/14 PA, or 1 every 3 or so games?
April 6, 2007 at 9:57 am
5: The new draft rules don’t change anything for Latos. The Padres can sign him until a week before the 2007 draft. If they don’t sign him before then, he goes back into the pool and anyone can pick him. Nobody who’s drafted this June can be a draft-and-follow, everybody but college seniors have to sign by August 15th. Those who don’t sign can go to college (4 year or Juco) or just wait until the next draft. I assume they can wait as amateurs or go to an indy league.
April 6, 2007 at 10:51 am
I believe that if a HS player goes to the 4 year college, they are not eligable for the draft until their Junior year (3 years later).
I will be at the game tonight…Section 126 Row 4.
April 6, 2007 at 11:07 am
ha mike ill be 3 floors up im in section 328
April 6, 2007 at 12:05 pm
Reading national coverage of the NL West is not healthy…
From ESPN’s Power Ranking regarding their 5th place Dodgers,
“The starting rotation posted a 4.29 ERA (4th in NL) last year. Now it has even fewer holes.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....amp;week=1
San Diego led the NL with a 3.87 ERA last year. Now IT has even fewer holes… Ugh!!!
By the way, they rank the Padres 14th.
And they actually get paid for that crap.
April 6, 2007 at 12:35 pm
KK with some more MSM love … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
April 6, 2007 at 1:10 pm
9: Basically true. You do get some draft-eligible sophomores, not often.
The big changes are the universal signing date and the loss of draft-and-follow. Instead of retaining a JUCO player’s rights for a year, the team loses those rights on August 15th just like they do for every other player (college seniors excepted). So kids can still go to junior college and get drafted two straight years.
April 6, 2007 at 1:13 pm
12: Off the first three games, Kouz’s swing reminds me of Greg Vaughn. Almost looks to be leaning back when he swings at times.
April 6, 2007 at 1:58 pm
In Kevin Goldstein’s chat on BP today he mentioned that he expects Latos to sign with the Padres and not go back into the draft. It would be pretty awesome to see the Padres spending with the Red Sox and Yankees in the draft, being able to take risks on guys that may slip because of signability issues (i.e. it would be nice to have Stephen Drew on the Padres right now).
April 6, 2007 at 2:08 pm
Latos will be huge, as will the 7 extra picks within the first 3 rounds…
April 6, 2007 at 2:39 pm
If they’re willing to spend the money, this draft could move us solidly into the teens in terms of farm system talent.
April 6, 2007 at 3:47 pm
I’ll be in 308, wearing my CY jersey.
April 6, 2007 at 3:52 pm
GY … say Hey to Sandy for us … if you see him
April 6, 2007 at 3:53 pm
I think the natural progression of the talent we already have (Hunter, Antonelli, Venable, Carrillo, Breit, D. Miller, Latos (if/when we sign him), Huffman (the younger version), Burke, Blanks, etc.) should move us into the high-teens, the upcoming haul could move us into the 11-14 range.
April 6, 2007 at 3:54 pm
Aki with his first save … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270406113
April 6, 2007 at 4:12 pm
Anyone else think Ryno is poised for a good year in SF? I don’t think he’ll do anything really great, but I could see him hitting around .290 with moderate power in 350 ABs.
April 6, 2007 at 4:26 pm
My son’s on his way back from school for a father/son outing at the park. We’ll be in 215.
April 6, 2007 at 4:44 pm
do you have the same seats this year as the last couple years LaMar
April 6, 2007 at 5:08 pm
Olliver Perez is pitching for Mets tonight … http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270406115