Checking In on the New Guys
Mon, Apr 23, 2007
by Geoff Young
The Padres lost on Sunday, and I have surprisingly little to say about it. They didn’t really do anything wrong other than run into Jason Hirsh, who is pitching very well right now. I liked what I saw from Greg Maddux. Again.
Actually, I like what I’m seeing from a lot of the new guys: Marcus Giles has a bizarre approach to batting leadoff, but it seems to be working so why fight it? Jose Cruz Jr. is playing well on offense and defense; he looks like a solid fourth outfielder to me. Heath Bell? Kevin Cameron? Yes, please.
About the only newcomer that hasn’t contributed yet is Kevin Kouzmanoff. There’s a huge disconnect between the way he’s swinging the bat right now and his minor-league track record. He simply cannot continue to hit like this all season long. Yeah, .133/.220/.222 is pretty brutal, but it’s way too early to panic or even think about giving up on him. Seriously, remember this guy:
| PA | BA | OBP | SLG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| thru 6/11 | 108 | .198 | .262 | .427 |
| 6/12 onward | 333 | .293 | .381 | .561 |
| Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference. | ||||
Nevin was 28 at the time, Kouzmanoff is 25 now. Obviously, every case is different; the point is, we don’t yet have enough information to make a solid judgment regarding his ability.
The best we can say is that Kouzmanoff is struggling at the plate in a big way and needs to make an adjustment. Hopefully Merv Rettenmund can help him figure out how to recognize breaking pitches.
Meanwhile, the kid is playing better-than-advertised defense, and Russell Branyan is doing a nice job in limited opportunities. The situation will work itself out one way or another over time.
by Peter Friberg
You will not see all the notable performances from the night before, but you will see the notable performances from those who are actually prospects.
Friday, April 20, 2007
AAA
Luke Carlin: 3 AB, 3 R, 2 H, 3 RBI; 2 2B, 2 BB
AA
Chase Headley: 3 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; 3B, BB
Cesar Ramos: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO, 1 HR
High-A
Kyle Blanks: 5 AB, 0 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; 4 SO
Wade LeBlanc: 4.1 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
Low-A
Tom King: 7 AB, 2 R, 3 H, RBI; 3 2B
Cedric Hunter: 3 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 0 RBI; 2B, 3 BB
Nathaniel Culp: 6.0 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
The Beavers scored 17 in a route of Oakland’s Triple-A team, Sacramento. The Beavers have exactly ZERO real hitting prospects, but Carlin will probably be at least an MLB backup.
Ramos is intriguing. This is his second straight solid strikeout performance.
I don’t really believe in King as a prospect (I left him off my top 25 and BA left him off their top 30). But that’s one heck of a game. I could write the same thing for Culp.
Saturday, April 21, 2007
AAA
Mike Thompson: 2.0 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 1 SO, 1 HR
AA
Will Venable: 5 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; SO
Chase Headley: 3 AB, 0 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; BB
Joshua Geer: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 0 RBI; BB
Nic Crosta: 5 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 4 RBI; 2 HR
Chad Huffman: 5 AB, 3 R, 4 H, 2 RBI; HR
Yordany Ramirez: 5 AB, 1 R, 4 H, 1 RBI; 2B
Manny Ayala: 6.0 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 0 BB, 5 SO, 1 HR
Low-A
Cedric Hunter: 3 AB, 2 R, 0 H, 0 RBI; BB, SB
Kyler Burke: 3 AB, 0 R, 1 H, 1 RBI; 3B
Aaron Breit: 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR - nice bounce-back start
Ernesto Frieri: 2.0 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
Thompson didn’t react well to being demoted.
Sunday, April 22, 2007
AAA
Jared Wells: 5.2 IP, 8 H, 6 R, 6 ER, 3 BB, 2 SO, 1 HR
AA
Chase Headley: 3 AB, 3 R, 2 H, 1 RBI; HR, 2 BB
Tim Brown: 5 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; 2 HR
High-A
Matt Antonelli: 6 AB, 2 R, 3 H, 1 RBI; HR, BB, 2 SO
David Freese: 6 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 1 RBI; 2 SO
Nic Crosta: 6 AB, 3 R, 3 H, 3 RBI; HR
Matt Bush: 5 AB, 1 R, 2 H, 4 RBI; 2B, HR, SO
Matthew Buschmann: 7.0 IP, 9 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 5 SO, 0 HR
Low-A
Jeremy Hunt: 5 AB, 1 R, 4 H, 1 RBI; HR
Andrew Underwood: 3.1 IP, 8 H, 5 R, 5 ER, 1 BB, 0 SO, 0 HR
Commentary:
It’s nice to see Lake Elsinore go off for 15 runs, but I have to believe the wind was blowing out there in the High Desert… [Ed note: High Desert ranks among the most extreme hitters' environments in baseball.]
I don’t really consider Hunt to be a prospect, but you can’t help but love a 4-for-5, two-homer performance.
I was looking at organizational depth charts today (Sunday) and this organization has serious holes at shortstop and could use more upper-tier pitching.
There you have it. No game today; feel free to take the discussion wherever it needs to go…
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
April 23, 2007 at 8:30 am
Having seen Carlin in Portland in 2006, I would agree that he’s probably a backup, and that’s about it. The total lack of hitting prospects in the high minors is alarming, but should be expected with the draft busts of late.
I still find it amazing that the Mets and Twins could never find spots for Heath Bell and Kevin Cameron, respectively. Both of these guys are key contributors to what is arguably the best bullpen in baseball. Seeing those guys instead of Jon Adkins and Scott Cassidy is a welcome change.
April 23, 2007 at 8:44 am
About Koz and his progress: One good thing is having Bud Black (vs Bruce Bochy) as the Manager. Bochy would have platooned more frequently at third at this point (in the young season). By now, we would have seen Geoff Blum with more starts at Third.
Koz is young and and will take his lumps. Hopefully the Veteran players are helping with his big league maturation.
April 23, 2007 at 8:52 am
1 - one of the bullpens that it can be argued is better than the Padres is the Mets … they also have 3 pitchers yet to be scored upon … so that, to me at least, explains how/why Heath Bell was available.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....nYear=2007
April 23, 2007 at 8:57 am
Here’s a better link for how the Mets ‘pen is doing … http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....;split=128 … 1.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP in 51 IP in 17 games … that’s pretty good.
Also, what pick in the Rule 5 Draft did we use on KCamy? I’m pretty sure it wasn’t #1 … so many other MLB teams did not see his value either …
Bottom Line: Some good work was done by someone working for the Padres to identify the talents of both of these pitchers.
April 23, 2007 at 9:44 am
Question … where did Cooper Brannan end up? Is he still in “extended spring training”?
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....adres.html
April 23, 2007 at 10:11 am
5 - I think his military service runs out in May, at which point he would probably be assigned to a very low-level affiliate.
That story fizzled out really quickly, didn’t it?
April 23, 2007 at 10:37 am
With the day off today I would assume that the pads would go back to 12 pitchers and 5 bench players. Are they going to bring back P-mac who has been struggling in AAA or Robles who has started off the season well?
Also do they bring back Thompson?
April 23, 2007 at 10:48 am
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....notes.html
… says this …
The Padres will likely send right-handed reliever Aaron Rakers back to Triple-A Portland today and bring up a position player. But it won’t immediately be first baseman/outfielder Paul McAnulty. He’s not eligible to return to the major league roster until Saturday. Infielder Oscar Robles is among the candidates for promotion.
… and I’m wondering why Robles over Stansberry?
April 23, 2007 at 10:49 am
I’ve started to wonder, how much better is Kouz’s upside than what we already had in Branyan, a career .330/.484 hitter, .439/.552 as a Padre?
April 23, 2007 at 10:50 am
3 - another bullpen that can be argued to be better than the Padres is the Braves …
The Padres and Atlanta are the only teams in the majors this season not to have blown a lead.
April 23, 2007 at 11:33 am
“I was looking at organizational depth charts today (Sunday) and this organization has serious holes at shortstop and could use more upper-tier pitching.”
…which is why…
“Looking to add a potential first-round pick before the June draft, the Padres likey will offer at least $1 million to 2006 draftee Matt Latos this week.”
…is a good sign.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/.....inors.html
April 23, 2007 at 11:59 am
11 … THANKS again for your PPR … I know you’re a big fan of Kevin Goldstein … here’s a snip from his ‘Monday Morning Ten Pack’ article at BP …
Chase Headley, 3B, Double-A San Antonio (Padres)
A second-round pick in 2005, Headley is the classic college pick. He’s a solid hitter, has an excellent approach, and wonderful fundamentals, while at the same time possessing a limited ceiling because of below-average athleticism. That said, with two hits in each of this weekend’s three games (including a home run on Sunday), Headley is up to .339/.418/.610 in 16 contests. If he can prove to even have consistent average power, Kevin Kouzmanoff might have something more to worry about that just his own slow start.
April 23, 2007 at 12:14 pm
#4: LM, Feliciano and Schoeneweis have some terrible peripheral numbers. Also, seven unearned runs makes the Mets’ bullpen look better than it is. Those guys are good, but they’re due for a “correction.” Still, as you say, the Padres deserve credit for finding and pursuing talent.
#6: Brian, that was inevitable. At this point, he’s a great human interest story, but unless/until/ he does something noteworthy as a player, that may be the end. It’d be cool to see him have a career and turn it into a movie, though, a la Jim Morris.
#9: Eric, you raise a great point. I think it’s real important to keep expectations for Kouz in check. Use guys like Mike Lowell and Todd Zeile as starting points for comparison. He isn’t Aramis Ramirez or Scott Rolen. By the same token, he isn’t Aaron Boone or Pedro Feliz.
On an unrelated note, Jon Weisman invited some NL West bloggers (including yours truly) to participate in a roundtable discussion at his SI.com blog:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....-best.html
April 23, 2007 at 12:46 pm
13 … thanks for the link … interesting comments all around … the giants guy was particuarly funny …
April 23, 2007 at 1:19 pm
We also lost a guy in the Rule V draft, Joakim Soria, who is doing fairly well for the Royals.
For all those fans of the TTO (three true outcomes) or of Branyan’s style of hitting, this is a must read.
http://www.baseball-analysis.c.....icleid=724
April 23, 2007 at 1:30 pm
8: Agree on Robles v Stansberry. Neither one is great at short. We need a RH bat to keep Black from running Blum up there.
April 23, 2007 at 1:37 pm
Anyone see that Fox is reporting that Linebrink is probably back on the block?
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6724744
Seems to me that the Phils bully is falling apart and Linebrink may just be the answer…hmmmm can I rekindle the FREE PAT THE BAT talk? Just wondering.
April 23, 2007 at 1:57 pm
With Headley yes, he’s doing VERY well. However, I am NOT ready to annoint Headley as Kouzmanoff’s replacement (ask me about Freese). I told you to watch the splits; check this out:
Home: 22 AB .227/.261/.500
Road: 37 AB .405/.500/.676
It is encouraging to see that home slugging percentage, but he has to hit better at home.
April 23, 2007 at 2:07 pm
17 - I hope you’re right as far as the target of the talks…I want no parts of Aaron “wall face” Rowand.
I also hope there isn’t an urgency yet…for all our (and I’m way guilty on this) wailings and rending of garments it IS only April and the outcome of whether Kouz will hit is completely unknowable yet. He’s one hot streak shy of putting up respectable (not great, but respectable) #s, and has good platoon cover in Branyan.
April 23, 2007 at 2:26 pm
15 - Thanks for that TTO link. I’ve read that article several times over the years…Rany Jazayerli is probably my favorite baseball writer.
This one is a classic–must read, in my opinion:
http://espn.go.com/mlb/playoff.....38203.html
April 23, 2007 at 2:30 pm
re:19 at this point I would imagine they would be higher on Rowand over Pat the Bat, by going after Rowand it would elevate some of the pressure of resigning Cameron this off season.
April 23, 2007 at 2:53 pm
OT … http://msn.foxsports.com/other.....6?MSNHPHMA … NYC bat ban passes final hurdle … fyi.
April 23, 2007 at 3:08 pm
http://washington.nationals.ml.....p?c_id=was
Go here and click on the second video, Chico’s wild pitch. It puts Rick Vaughn to shame.
April 23, 2007 at 3:16 pm
23- JUST a bit outside!
April 23, 2007 at 4:01 pm
Robles promoted per 1090. Precurser to Blum’s release? Of course he’s lefthanded.
April 23, 2007 at 4:13 pm
Good comparison with Kooz to Nevin. Boy was Phil a late bloomer, three teams gave up on him before he developed with San Diego.
April 23, 2007 at 4:40 pm
Actually after 43 abs,my man, Nevin was .263,.326,.605 with 3 HRS and 7 vs 13 K’s. As of April 23 he was at .400..455, .800!
April 23, 2007 at 7:06 pm
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/boxscore?gid=270423116 … Tony Gwynn now hitting .462 … has a nice ring to, don’t it?
April 23, 2007 at 7:24 pm
23 … thanks for the link … that’s a CLASSIC!
April 23, 2007 at 7:49 pm
Hmmm, looks like some bad news in the Portland game tonight … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_cspaaa_1 … Carillo only threw 1 inning???
On the postive side, Cust with HR #7 … seems like he could get a call up if injuries start to mount …
April 23, 2007 at 7:51 pm
At AA, it’s nice to see Max Venable with a good start … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_sanaax_1 … I was afraid he’d get overmatched at AA … and a good outing by Sean Thompson … well, the 4 BBs in 5.2IP isn’t good … but his ERA is just 0.40 … gotta like that!
April 23, 2007 at 7:53 pm
Cedric (The Great) showing that he can pinch-hit … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....x_ftwafx_1 …
April 23, 2007 at 8:04 pm
18 … you mean David Freese? HR #3 tonight … http://web.minorleaguebaseball.....a_hdmafa_1
April 23, 2007 at 9:51 pm
I hope we don’t have to wait until age 28 for kouz
April 23, 2007 at 10:45 pm
No worries so far on Carrillo. There was a 63 minute rain delay.
April 23, 2007 at 11:02 pm
Interesting thought on Branyan v. Kouz. I took a look at them on Baseball Cube and, thought it’s difficult to compare them due to the large differences in ages (Branyan hit the minors at 18 while Kouz was still in college at 22), they don’t look all that dissimilar in the minors.
Of course as others have pointed out, we’ll just have to wait and see as it’s way too early to pass any judgement on him yet.