Ducksnorts

Background

The folks at MadFriars.com have been dishing out the goods on Padres prospects since 2003, when founder Denis Savage saw a need for more detailed information on Padres’ minor-league players and set out to fill it. Denis and John Conniff have just released their list of top 20 Padres prospects for 2007. Their work on MadFriars can be found not only at their own site, but also at all Padres’ affiliate web sites and in their home programs. They both have been pre-game guests on the affiliates’ radio shows, with John even subbing in for the color man on a Fort Wayne broadcast last year.

Locally both Denis and John have been regular contributors to the Mighty XX, the flagship radio station of the Padres, as the in-house minor league correspondents featured on the Padres’ pre-game show with Ernie Martinez. Tonight they will be on Coach John Kentera’s show at 8:30 p.m. PT to discuss their top 20 selections for this year.

Denis and John were kind enough to give me some of their time recently and discuss the birth and growth of MadFriars, how they arrived at this year’s list, what we might expect from the likes of Kevin Kouzmanoff and Cedric Hunter, and who some of the organization’s sleeper prospects might be. Throughout our phone discussion (John is from San Diego but currently lives in Washington, D.C.), Denis and John proved very engaging and passionate about what they’re doing.

Denis has a scouting background, albeit an unusual one for a baseball analyst. He worked as a hockey scout for 6 years, during which time he honed his ability to watch players and identify specific attributes that might point toward their future success or failure.

John, an economic analyst by day, met Denis through a mutual friend. The rest, as they say, is history.

Potential Upside versus Proximity to the Major Leagues

We discussed the challenges of balancing a prospect’s projectability based on his tools and skills with his actual on-field performance. I asked Denis and John how they go about doing this in their evaluations.

“In short-season, we’re looking at tools over stats,” offered John. “At Double-A, we look more at stats, especially for hitters.”

Even then, numbers don’t always tell the whole story. We shared a laugh over Sean Burroughs’ inability to develop as expected despite posting gaudy numbers on his way up the ladder. We weren’t amused at Burroughs’ failure, of course, just given a humble reminder that there is no such thing as a sure thing.

In the case of Burroughs, one factor that may have hindered his development is the fact that despite his success in the minors, the Padres tinkered with his approach at the big-league level and asked him to abandon what had gotten him there in the first place. It was an expensive lesson learned, perhaps, but John noted that “the Padres have gotten better at letting their kids do what they do best” since then, citing Khalil Greene and Josh Barfield as two recent examples.

“If I’m Not Talking to Scouts, There’s Something Wrong”

Denis and John have established a strong relationship with the Padres organization. They watch all the different minor-league teams and talk to, well, pretty much everyone. Although the judgments they make are ultimately their own, they do receive input from a variety of sources, including coaches, scouts, official scorers, roving instructors, announcers, and even the players themselves. As Denis put it, “If I’m not talking to scouts, there’s something wrong.”

Denis observed that scouts are generally happy to talk about their guys. Unlike in hockey, all these players are already under a club’s control, so there isn’t the temptation to withhold information for fear of losing someone to another team.

Additionally, the Padres and their affiliates have proven very helpful. Denis noted that International Scout Felix Francisco and Director of Professional and International Scouting Randy Smith have been particularly generous with their time.

Crown Jewels: Kouzmanoff, Hunter, Carrillo

One of the unknowns of the upcoming season is third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff, who came over from Cleveland in the off-season. Everyone raves about Kouzmanoff’s bat, but there are questions about his defense at the hot corner. Denis indicated that they’d ranked him at the top despite such questions because of his attitude, confidence, and desire to be the best. Kouzmanoff’s coaches in the Indians organization spoke very highly of him, and Kouzmanoff himself recognizes the need for improvement with the glove. Beyond that, Denis noted that Kouzmanoff has proven in the past that he is willing to put in the work necessary to make himself better.

Turning to the low minors, I asked about outfielder Cedric Hunter, who is getting play locally and nationally as a top prospect despite having played just 52 games as a pro. When I mentioned my concern at comparisons to Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn that had surfaced in a recent newspaper article, Denis talked about context, noting that those comparisons are “in terms of effort — Hunter wants to learn and improve.” We talked about the drive that had led Gwynn to improve his game back in the day — studying videotape of his at-bats, working to become a better defender in right field, and the like. Hunter possesses a similar drive.

The young outfielder also possesses an abundance of tools and already has a good idea of what to do with them. I pointed out that some experts (Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus, to name one) had questions about Hunter’s ability to remain in center field. While acknowledging that Hunter’s arm isn’t great, Denis suggested that he “has the speed and athleticism to be a potentially smart center fielder.”

I asked how much of Hunter’s value is tied into his ability to play a legitimate center — would his bat still play if he were forced to left field at some point? John suggested that Hunter doesn’t have enough power for the corners, but reminded me that we haven’t seen him in a full-season league yet, so we’re still not sure of what he’s capable of doing. This ties back in to the tools versus performance issue we mentioned at the top.

Moving to the mound, one name stands out from the rest: Cesar Carrillo. John watched him in April 2006 and liked what he saw — two good fastballs (two-seamer, four-seamer) as well as a solid curve and change. Unfortunately the 2005 first-round pick has struggled with injuries. Carrillo hasn’t pitched in a game since June 2006 and is only now starting to throw side sessions — fastballs and changeups. The Padres understandably are being very cautious with their top pitching prospect.

Intrigue and Surprise: Blanks and Antonelli

One of the most intriguing prospects in the organization is first baseman Kyle Blanks. Nicknamed “Gigantor” for his 6′6″, 270ish-pound frame, Blanks is described by John as a “gentle giant, a nice guy.” John related an amusing tale of a brawl at Fort Wayne last summer where Blanks stood away from the action, apparently in fear of inflicting damage on others.

Blanks shows great patience at the plate - to the point where he could stand to be a little more aggressive. “He needs to turn on balls more,” according to John, who also lauded Blanks’ athleticism, noting that “he can play some left field” despite his size.

Denis added that Blanks “swings on a flat plane but is big enough to develop power” and didn’t seem concerned about his low home-run totals to date. Denis did mention that Blanks sometimes has trouble with his hitting mechanics, which given his size and level of development shouldn’t be cause for alarm.

Of greater concern with Blanks is the need for better conditioning. Some of this may be due to his youth. I can personally attest that kids who are away from home for the first time and who don’t have a lot of money don’t always eat what’s best for them.

Meanwhile, the biggest surprise on the list to me was seeing 2006 first-round pick Matt Antonelli all the way down at #16. Here, Denis revealed a critical component of their thought process: “We don’t consider draft status in making our evaluations. We consider everyone as a 10th rounder.”

The idea is to start all prospects on a level playing field and then judge each based on tools, skills, and performance, without regard for what someone else may have thought at one time. As for Antonelli, Denis praised his ability to reach base and his speed. Due to organizational needs, Antonelli will remain at third base in Fort Wayne this season but long-term, he’s probably better suited to second. If such a move happens, and assuming that Antonelli takes to it, his stock could rise at a position that doesn’t demand the power expected from a third baseman.

Diamonds in the Rough

Beyond the kids that get some coverage in outlets such as Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, several lesser-known prospects could make an impact. Two names on the MadFriars list that fit this description are hard-throwing right-handers Aaron Breit and Drew Miller, both signed as draft-and-follows before the 2006 amateur draft.

“Breit is more polished,” said Denis, “but Miller has more projectability. Breit has the better changeup, although it could be slower [in relation to his fastball]. Miller has the better curve. Both have good [pitching] knowledge and are coachable.”

Denis tagged both pitchers as potential #2 or #3 starters down the line, noting that there are very few kids in the system who project so well.

Digging a little deeper, to guys who don’t make their top 20 list, Denis pointed to Pablo Menchaca, Jackson Quezada, Rolando Valdez, Jose Oyervidez, Simon Castro, and Pascual Juan as young pitchers with big upside. He expressed particular enthusiasm for Menchaca, calling the right-hander a potential #1 starter if he can work ahead in the count more often and improve his mechanics: “He throws 93-96 and has great makeup.”

The other fascinating kid here is Juan, a left-hander who works with a fastball in the upper-90s. As Denis and John both noted, though, a hard fastball by itself doesn’t mean much at higher levels. I mentioned that I’d seen a young reliever (Mike Nicolas) make his California League debut a few years ago. Scouts were buzzing, checking their radar guns after every warmup pitch. Then batters stepped in and Nicolas repeatedly fell behind in the count before serving up fastballs that were smacked all over the yard. One pitch won’t get the job done no matter how good it is.

Who Will Step Forward in 2007?

Asked to identify one prospect in the organization who could take a big step forward in 2007, John paused for a few moments before deciding on left-hander Sean Thompson. John cited Thompson’s excellent K/9 and H/9 ratios as reasons for his enthusiasm.

“He needs to stay more focused,” said John. “He could be a spot starter or reliever for the Padres this year.”

Denis pointed out that Thompson’s record in 2006 was worse than it should have been because he received almost no run support at Double-A Mobile.

Denis then proceeded - without any hesitation - to offer outfielder Yefri Carvajal as his choice for someone to watch this season: “He will be a future #1 overall prospect in the Padres system.”

It’s a great baseball cliché to say that there’s a different sound when the ball comes off the bat of certain players. Denis claims that this statement holds true for Carvajal. On the traditional 20-80 scouting scale, Carvajal’s power checks in at 70, although a hand injury masked it somewhat in 2006. While acknowledging that Carvajal “needs to be more selective” at the plate, Denis thinks that he could be something special in the future.

Conclusion

The Padres farm system isn’t as strong as it could be, but there is hope. With the current brain trust, and with multiple additional picks in the 2007 draft due to free-agent signings, the Padres are positioning themselves for improvement from within. When that happens, you can say you heard about it first from Denis and John at MadFriars.com.

Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.

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