What’s Up with Wells?
Fri, Jan 5, 2007
by Geoff Young
With Randy Johnson headed back to Arizona, the Padres are finding their rotation options a bit limited. Apparently Kevin Towers and David Wells are still talking, but nothing much is happening. This sounds a lot like after the 2004 season, when the two of them did a weird dance involving tacos and Wells ended up in Boston. Honestly, is it that difficult? Either the guy wants to play here or he doesn’t.
(Don’t mind me. I’m grouchy because of the Jake Peavy thing — not so much Peavy as what the world has come to that double parking at an airport can be considered a security threat; can’t wait to see what’s next.)
Anyway.
We don’t know what’s happening with Wells. That’s not really specific to this situation, though; that’s more of a general comment. Nobody ever knows what’s happening with Wells. Dude does what he does.
With that in mind, best to look at other options. The Padres are. Names mentioned include Chan Ho Park (okay), Jeff Weaver (no thanks), and the ubiquitous “other trade opportunities.”
What about the kids? From the article: “Towers said he wants to start the season with a veteran in the No. 5 slot rather than Mike Thompson or Tim Stauffer.”
So right now it looks like Wells, Park, Weaver, or who-knows-what. Might I suggest a couple more names on the free-agent market: Tomo Ohka and John Thomson.
Ohka is coming off a down season with the Milwaukee Brewers, but he turns 31 in March and has a tidy 3.88 ERA over 127 starts since 2002. Unfortunately, the Mets are said to be interested in Ohka, and they have pretty deep pockets. They also are looking at Weaver and Tony Armas (please sign one of them instead, Mr. Minaya, and leave Ohka for us).
Thomson hasn’t been healthy or particularly good since 2004. Jeff Sackman at Hardball Times likes him. Thomson is 33 years old and has missed large chunks of the past two seasons. Still, if the price is right, he could be worth the risk.
Mark Redman also is available. He’s from Escondido, which makes him an immediate threat. I think I’d rather see Stauffer or Thompson get a crack.
The one other intriguing name is Jerome Williams, but his track record is unbelievably spotty. If the Padres aren’t going to trust one of their own kids, I doubt they’d want to take a shot at someone else’s failed prospect. Still, Williams is only 25 and probably worth a gamble for someone. (If not here, might I suggest the Royals?)
What to do. I have a feeling the Padres will end up bringing back Wells. I wouldn’t mind seeing him, Park, or Ohka in the rotation next year — possibly Thomson. I dunno, maybe Mrs. Towers can make burritos this time?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
January 5, 2007 at 9:13 am
GY - nice change of pic
January 5, 2007 at 9:15 am
LOL. Thanks for noticing.
January 5, 2007 at 9:30 am
Geoff, you drove all the way around the country just to visit Hard Rock Cafes? Planet Hollywood and Rainforest Cafe didn’t make the cut?
My NOG t-shirt is sweet, by the way. Already gotten many questions, to which I answer “If it has to be explained, you won’t care”.
January 5, 2007 at 9:32 am
You look much less thuggish now! :p
Don’t quite know how to respond to your Peavy comments…it would be to long and drawn out here…suffice to say I am sad that Peavy exhibited the arrogance it appears he did and, while none of us may like it, there are things that we may not consider a problem when in reality it does cause issues…
January 5, 2007 at 9:34 am
You know, I was thinking about the Wells situation, and as if on cue, they mentioned Steve Trachsel on MLB Home Plate on XM this morning. He’s not someone who’s going to light it up in Petco, but he’s at least a viable option as a late-rotation guy…depending on economics, of course.
I would have said Weaver a few weeks ago, but after seeing what Suppan got, I’m betting he’s wanting 4/45. No go.
January 5, 2007 at 9:35 am
I think a few of us should pitch in a couple of bucks and send the NOG Throw Pillow to NOG to have in the clubhouse. I might want it to have a translation under it…
January 5, 2007 at 9:37 am
Brian, I love the idea of the “Human Rain Delay” being on our team…tough problem is the $$$ that he may cost…and no way I touch Weaver…he is going to command a longer and more expensive deal than anyone should give a #4/5 starter.
January 5, 2007 at 9:40 am
#3: I don’t think Planet Hollywood existed back then. Glad you’re digging the shirt.
#4: Less thugish. Yeah, that’s what I was going for. The old one looked like it was taken in a dive bar. Hey, it was. As for Peavy, sounds like he got frustrated, which I totally understand. If this went down the way it supposedly did, there’s a real good chance I would have gotten tossed into jail if it had happened to me.
#5: Yeah, I thought about Trachsel. He’s probably no worse an option than Park. Weaver is going to get a good deal because of his postseason success. Dude picked a good time to wake up.
January 5, 2007 at 9:43 am
I don’t mind Thomson.
I might rather explore a trade for Jon Lieber, since he was supposedly available. I think he has a much bigger chance to be healthy most of the year.
January 5, 2007 at 9:55 am
I mean, honestly, does anyone expect Wells to start 30+ games if he does sign with us?
I just think getting him puts us in a bad spot IF someone goes down. With Wells’ broken down body, we can’t afford to have both Thompson and Stauffer in the rotation at once for any extended period of time.
Another note, but OT. A friend of mine is working in an IT capacity for a new site that is focusing on helping people with the growing healthcare nightmare. Sorry for “soliciting”, but I think this link may be apprieciated by anyone who shares my frustration with the current healthcare state in this nation. It’s just in the beginning stages now, but feel free to spread the word if you do like what you see.
http://www.revolutionhealth.co.....yVsOxITVhZ
January 5, 2007 at 10:00 am
About Peavy:
“It was just him not cooperating with the officer who was really just trying to help him,” Kincaid said. “(Peavy) was offered some alternatives to help him with the situation, and he declined.”
Really, alternatives, what were they? Sounds like a spin to me.
Pitching-wise, I’d rather have either Thompson or Stauffer than the alternatives. Considering that Carillo is supposedly getting better, a call up for him at the ASB wouldn’t be bad. The former twosome can’t be as bad as the Tim Redding experiment, can they?
January 5, 2007 at 10:43 am
Didi…I guess it depends on the lens with which you look at it…I see that as the police officer being kind and not sharing the attitude that was probably exhibited…
Also, was listening to Sandy Alderson on XX the other day…he said that while he did not have an update on his situation, his opinion was that surgury was a real possibility…or at least one that he thought would be coming despite reports to the contrary.
January 5, 2007 at 10:47 am
#11,12: Hard to say without being there. My guess is that the truth lies somewhere in between and that there was a bit of “arrogance” exhibited by both parties.
January 5, 2007 at 10:59 am
12: I heard the same thing on Carrillo, which is the main reason I disagreed with Peter F on Carrillo being a “stud.” A stud laid up in the barn is no stud. Makes you wonder why the Padres sent him back to Elsinore at the end of 2005. He’d thrown a lot of innings by that point.
Wells and Ohka are much better bets than Stauffer or Thompson. The breakpoint for me would be around 5 million. I might go higher because what else are we saving that money for? It’s no fun for Thompson to be the emergency 5th starter staying ready in Portland, but that’s where he’s the most use to us.
January 5, 2007 at 12:17 pm
re: 7
You want Mike Hargrove on the team?
January 5, 2007 at 1:09 pm
Okay, really crazy - out there - idea: I wonder if we could get a hold of Mike Hampton for cheap from the Braves. Okay, nothing about Mike Hampton has been cheap in the past and I’m not sure if the Braves would be willing to swallow some of that ridiculous contract that I believe the Rockies are also swallowing, but if we could get Hampton for Linebrink, there may be some huge upside there. Right, Hampton for Linebrink… hmmm…I’m not even sure if I like that trade… Oh well, I’d like to have Hampton though ….
January 5, 2007 at 1:15 pm
to add: I would rather have Wells for $5 to $6 mil as a 5 starter, but if we don’t get him, then I think an argument could be made that a #5 starter with a huge upside is worth as much as an above-average to excellent setup man…..
January 5, 2007 at 1:45 pm
16 & 17: The Braves have the whole enchilada of Hampton’s contract all to themselves now, except for the 2009 buyout - of SIX MILLION DOLLARS! Yes, that’s right, the Rockies will pay him another 6 million in 2009 if he doesn’t throw for anyone. I don’t know if all the deferred money and Colorado’s liability for the buyout are still transferable.
He’s due 14.5 and 15 the next two years.
I bet you could get him for a pair of game-worn Carmelo Martinez socks. How much would the Braves be willing to cover, though? Don’t know about the “huge upside,” either. His best ERA+ was 150 in 1999. Since then he’s spent most of his time around or below the 100 mark. At 6M or thereabouts he’d be an interesting idea.
January 5, 2007 at 6:59 pm
The only reasoning I can think of for getting wells is the experience factor. He may be the only truly post-season tested SP on the market. Wells would be an outstanding leader on that team - despite some of his personality quirks. I’m not ever going to be sold on Weaver as a dependable pitcher. Wells may be the best fit for the team - though they do have Mad-dog already.
January 5, 2007 at 10:18 pm
CM, isn’t there something in your faith about casting the first stone, or judge not, etc., etc.? Unless you have an awful lot of inside information the rest of us aren’t privy to, it seems like you’re doing a lot of judging on very little information. To me it reads as if it could just as well have been a frustrated and stressed out traveler who made a poor decision, and not a rich, spoiled jock displaying his “arrogance.” Sheesh!
January 5, 2007 at 11:42 pm
The Padres sent Carrillo “back” to High A to 1. help in the playoff run, and 2. let him get playoff experience. He had simply thrown too many innings at that point (over 180 between college and pro if I remember correctly) and he fatigued down the stretch.
Carrillo will be fine.
January 5, 2007 at 11:47 pm
As soon as Johnson signs, the Pads will probably sign Wells. A couple of mil for a 3rd to 5th starter vs. 14 mil for a 3rd to 5th starter. Go Boomer…give us one last big season.
January 6, 2007 at 8:02 am
Shawn Estes has re-signed. Woo-hoo, it’s party time.
Seriously, this had better not be the solution…
January 6, 2007 at 8:21 am
21: Neither reason outweighs the danger of fatigue.
Alderson thinks surgery is still an option. Even without surgery, the injury pushed Carrillo’s development back.
A lot of prospect watchers said “Mark Rogers will be fine.” Until he wasn’t. I’ll wait until Carrillo can throw 150 innings before pronouncing him healed.
23: Estes wasn’t a good choice last year. At least it’s a minor league deal.
January 6, 2007 at 12:08 pm
Pat…I have read and reread what I said…and yes, I can see how that could be taken that way, so let me give you a bit of background and try to rephrase…
My best friend is a cop…My dad’s best friend is a cop…I have good friends who are in the FBI, the DoJ, and even entertained a job offer to become a Law Enforcement officer until my wife decided she did not like the idea…so, with that bkground, you can see why my first instinct is to lean toward the PD’s version of the story…I also happen to travel a lot…on the road 60-75 nights a year…I spend a lot of time in airports and hotels and understand the “frustrated and stressed out traveler” angle…
So when I read what has been written about the Peavy incident, I see a guy who shows up to the airport, maybe a bit late, and does not want to be bothered by following the rules that are set up for everyone’s ease and safety. Mr. Peavy (whom I am a HUGE fan of) says “’Write me a ticket’ before saying ‘Call a real cop.’”
ESPN had this quote…”The airport police told him he couldn’t park his car there and he said, ‘Write me up a ticket and I’ll pay for it,’” Towers said. “He was arrested.”
I can’t imagine ever saying this type of thing to a police officer, DOT officer, or even a security screener. Sure, I don’t have the benefit of tone of voice or body language, but those quotes came across as arrogant and very belittling of another person.
As far as my faith and “not casting the first stone”, let me buy you coffee and we can discuss that in depth…until then, I would say that no stones were tossed, just sharing an impression that I got from all of the articles I read. It was disappointing from a Fan’s point of view.
January 6, 2007 at 3:15 pm
Word, CM.
I think we can all agree that Jake Peavy can be a stubborn arse sometimes. This is a non-story for a slow time in the off season. He was on his way to a freaking mission trip! It’s a stupid chain of events that could have been avoided if one of the two parties had just cooled off. Steve Foley, anyone?
January 6, 2007 at 10:09 pm
Peavy’s obviously not perfect…people of faith are the same as anyone else in a lot of ways…that’s the whole idea of “faith,” relying on something outside themselves.
January 6, 2007 at 10:12 pm
25: I’ve been married to a cop for over 16 years, so I don’t think your perspective allows you any high ground. I’m all for respect toward LEO. But I still don’t see anything earth shaking in the story and certainly nothing worth condeming Jake over. So he snapped and was rude toward someone. I’ve done that, not toward LEO necessarily, but I’m not perfect, and I’d be willing to bet you aren’t either. That being the case, why judge him? Still, if you say you’re not, I guess it’s my misreading of your comments. Sorry for the misinterpretation.
As for the cup of coffee, if you’re willing to fly to Kuwait City, I’ll meet you at the airport and you can buy me some Starbuck’s. Otherwise it will have to wait until I get back to San Diego.
January 7, 2007 at 2:57 am
26: I think a Steve Foley comparison is waaay out of line here. Steve Foley was driving drunk and aggressively advanced on an officer. Jake Peavy didn’t want to move his truck at an airport until he had finished taking care of his luggage. There’s a huge, huge difference. Huge.
I believe this incident also took place before 6 in the morning, so everyone was probably a little bit grumpy also. Without knowing the full context of the event or perhaps witnessing it, it’s difficult to assign blame. Also, let’s not judge Peavy’s character based on what we see of him while he’s pitching. It has little to do with how he conducts himself in the rest of his life.
January 7, 2007 at 5:25 am
Here’s a good story on the Pads going with Bowen and Bard behind the plate from Padres.com
http://sandiego.padres.mlb.com.....mp;c_id=sd
January 7, 2007 at 11:48 am
Marcel likes Bard quite a bit, btw. I was kinda surprised.
January 7, 2007 at 3:52 pm
31 - who is “Marcel”?
January 7, 2007 at 4:11 pm
Fifth starter options - these are the names bandied about here:
Wells: Probably the one, when the dust clears. If we can deal with the fact that we’re only going to get 20 starts out of him then I think he’ll be okay. How many starts does a 5th starter make, anyway? 25?
Lieber: He’s a lot like a right-handed Wells. It’ll take dealing some talent to get him, and I’m not sure I’d want to give up anything useful for him
Thomson: Wouldn’t touch him with a 25-foot pole. One decent season sandwiched around a sever history of injury
Hampton: Ditto, except make it a 30-foot pole. Before Zito, this was the worst ever long-term contract ever given to a Pitcher. Now it’s the 2nd worst. Still, at 14 mil a season and coming off TJ surgery, he’s a terrible bet to bounce back.
Estes: See Mike Hampton - pitchers coming off Tommy John surgery take a while to bounce back to ”
form” - generally a year and a half or so. When the “form” they’re trying to bounce back from wasn’t any good in the first place, like Estes, I’d avoid.
Trachsel’s numbers were in precipitous decline last season, not good considering he pitched in a pitcher’s park. Never trust a pitcher with a 79/78 K/BB ratio.
Thompson was moderately successful last season, and could, with experience, put together a few Brian Lawrence-type seasons, good for a 4th/5th starter. Stauffer is nothing but roster filler, not a fitting end for a #1 pick. Call me pessimistic, but I don’t think Carillo ever pitches in the majors - he’s a skinny, slender pitcher and his arm troubles seem fairly serious at such a young age. I think Bill James once did a study that showed that something like 60 percent of pitching prospects never reach the bigs due to injury. It’s tough. Carillo has all the earmarks of being one of those who never makes it. I hope I’m wrong.
January 7, 2007 at 4:14 pm
Job opportunity in Portland … http://portland.craigslist.org.....67095.html
January 7, 2007 at 4:53 pm
Pat…I never condemned Peavy…I certainly am not judging him…
Simply saying that his actions seem arrogant.
January 7, 2007 at 5:22 pm
Not to turn this into a Chargers thread, but…
Here is a link to ESPN SportsNation poll asking people who they like in various Patriots-Chargers matchups…
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/.....nt_id=2730
Here are the suprising results so far:
1) Which team will win Sunday’s game in San Diego?
60.6% Patriots in a close game
24.0% Chargers in a close game
10.8% Chargers in a blowout
4.6% Patriots in a blowout
2) Which unit would you rather have?
60.8% New England’s offense
39.2% San Diego’s defense
3) Which unit would you rather have?
51.0% San Diego’s offense
49.0% New England’s defense
4) Which player would you rather have in the playoffs?
73.5% Tom Brady
26.5% LaDainian Tomlinson
5) Which group of wide receivers are more likely to make an impact on Sunday?
64.4% New England: Reche Caldwell, Troy Brown, Jabar Gaffney
35.6% San Diego: Eric Parker, Vincent Jackson, Keenan McCardell
6) Will Philip Rivers’ inexperience play a significant role in the game?
73.1% Yes
26.9% No
7) Which linebacker is a better defensive anchor?
76.2% Tedy Bruschi, Patriots
23.8% Donnie Edwards, Chargers
40.4% Shawne Merriman, Chargers
25.5% Richard Seymour, Patriots
22.8% Asante Samuel, Patriots
8.6% Rodney Harrison, Patriots
1.5% Shaun Phillips, Chargers
1.3% Quentin Jammer, Chargers
9) Which coach will do a better job of preparing his team for the opponent?
86.5% Bill Belichick
13.5% Marty Schottenheimer
10) On a scale of one to five, with five being the toughest environment, how tough a place to play is San Diego?
45.2% Three
21.2% Four
18.5% Two
8.2% One
6.9% Five
Total Votes: 15,300
***
My thoughts:
1. “Who will win?” There are people on the East Coast, some East Coast Bias is to be expected.
2. San Diego has a SICK defense. New England’s offense is ok beyond Brady.
3. New England regularly gave up a lot of points, San Diego has the best RB, the best TE, the best OL in the NFL, not to metion decent WRs and a solid QB…
4. In the playoffs, I’ll take Brady over LT as well, I don’t have a problem w/ this one…
5. We focus on Gates & LT, NE’s WRs should have more of an impact…
6. It’s not like Rivers is a rookie…
7. I think I’d take Bruschi over Edwards, but it’s close…
8. People got this one right, except only 1.5% think Shawn Phillips will make the biggest difference? There are NFL scouts that like Phillips more than Merriman…
9. Yeah, I’ll BB over Marty…
10. SD = hard place to play on a 1-5 scale? 3, but more 4 than 2…
January 7, 2007 at 6:36 pm
I think 3 is pretty low considering we haven’t lost a game at home all season.
January 7, 2007 at 7:38 pm
LM: I believe Marcel is a regression analysis which projects player’s performance solely by regressing them to the league or ML norm/average. IOW, it’s a really basic projection, unlike more complex ones such as PECOTA, but still fairly accurate.
January 7, 2007 at 7:50 pm
This is why projecting Randy Johnson is so hard:
http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=133
January 7, 2007 at 9:26 pm
#36: later voting has changed the numbers dramatically…
1) Which team will win Sunday’s game in San Diego?
41.1% Chargers in a blowout
32.2% Patriots in a close game
24.5% Chargers in a close game
2.3% Patriots in a blowout
2) Which unit would you rather have?
67.3% San Diego’s defense
32.7% New England’s offense
3) Which unit would you rather have?
74.2% San Diego’s offense
25.8% New England’s defense
4) Which player would you rather have in the playoffs?
60.1% LaDainian Tomlinson
39.9% Tom Brady
5) Which group of wide receivers are more likely to make an impact on Sunday?
64.5% San Diego: Eric Parker, Vincent Jackson, Keenan McCardell
35.5% New England: Reche Caldwell, Troy Brown, Jabar Gaffney
6) Will Philip Rivers’ inexperience play a significant role in the game?
59.7% No
40.3% Yes
7) Which linebacker is a better defensive anchor?
58.0% Donnie Edwards, Chargers
42.0% Tedy Bruschi, Patriots
68.1% Shawne Merriman, Chargers
13.9% Richard Seymour, Patriots
11.6% Asante Samuel, Patriots
4.6% Rodney Harrison, Patriots
1.0% Shaun Phillips, Chargers
0.8% Quentin Jammer, Chargers
9) Which coach will do a better job of preparing his team for the opponent?
51.8% Marty Schottenheimer
48.2% Bill Belichick
10) On a scale of one to five, with five being the toughest environment, how tough a place to play is San Diego?
48.2% Five
25.1% Three
12.6% Four
9.8% Two
4.2% One
January 8, 2007 at 2:44 am
Nearly 5% of those polled think a player that won’t be playing will have the biggest impact.
January 8, 2007 at 8:57 am
41 - maybe they’re saying that’s what will have the greatest impact, that he’s not playing?
I doubt it but you never know.
January 8, 2007 at 10:53 am
My suggestion for 2007 #5 starter: Ismael Valdez! Or did the Giants already sign him (3 years, $15MM)?
January 9, 2007 at 9:04 pm
regarding the sportsnation poll thing, i just came back from boston and saw that the patriot fans were stuffing every online ballot possible in a cybercafes. and it wasnt just one. in every place possible, people were campaigning for the patriots. even my cousin who lives there was voting numerous times for the patriots. it was advantage for the chargers in every aspect just 4 days ago.
the poll means nothing.