Two Articles on Gwynn
Thu, Dec 28, 2006
by Geoff Young
Not much going on at the moment, so what better time to talk about Tony Gwynn? In the days leading up to the Hall of Fame election, that’s exactly what ESPN’s Tim Kurkjian and MLB.com’s Barry Bloom have done.
The piece by Kurkjian (hat tip to Nick G. in yesterday’s comments) focuses on Gwynn’s approach to the craft of hitting. Great anecdote:
At the batting cage during the 1998 World Series against the Yankees, Gwynn, then 38 years old, complained to a writer that “I can’t see like I used to.”
“So,” the writer said, “what is your vision now, 20-20?”
“No,” Gwynn said, “it’s 20-15. But I still can’t see like I used to.”
Meantime, Bloom’s article discusses Gwynn’s relationship with his late father, Charles. In addition to the inspiration Charles provided, he also urged his son to leave the Padres in the wake of the 1993 Fire Sale that saw owner Tom Werner move most of his established talent for cheaper personnel:
“‘You’ve got to go,’” said Gwynn, quoting his father in a 1999 article printed in the San Diego Union-Tribune. “‘They’re not trying to win down there. You deserve to win.’ I said, ‘But Dad, I’m happy here. This is where I was meant to be. San Diego and me, we’re a perfect fit.’”
As it turned out, former Padres GM Randy Smith did a masterful job of dealing from a position of extreme weakness, snagging unknowns Andy Ashby and Trevor Hoffman during the Fire Sale. Another trade by Smith after the 1994 season brought Ken Caminiti and Steve Finley to San Diego, and just two years later, they would help lead the Padres back to the playoffs.
Two years after that, in 1998, Gwynn made his second trip to the World Series. Although he was nearing the end of his career and he may not have been able to see as well as he once had, the record will show that Gwynn did just fine in that World Series, against one of the greatest teams in history, hitting .500/.529/.688 in 16 at-bats.
Speaking of numbers, Gwynn’s career stats — 3141 hits, 319 stolen bases, 15 All-Star appearances, 5 Gold Glove awards, 1 team — tell the story of why he will be elected to the Hall of Fame on January 9, in his first year of eligibility, and inducted July 29, in Cooperstown, NY. It should be clear enough even to those of us who are not blessed with 20-15 vision.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
December 28, 2006 at 8:57 am
I lived in New England during the 80’s and was a huge Red Sox fan and I can tell you we all knew how great Tony Gwynn was. He was the guy we compared Boggs too and it always seemed like Gwynn was just a little better. He was a great hitter and a real class act.
Rotoworld is reporting that Zito is headed to the Giants. Do they know he’s under 35?
December 28, 2006 at 9:11 am
Should we be happy if the Giants overpay for 6 years of Zito?
December 28, 2006 at 9:24 am
That actually seems like a reasonably good park for him to choose to go to. As a flyball pitcher, being in PacBell might minimize the HR damage. With or without him, I don’t think that the Giants are a threat this year. I’m a bit surprised that they are going to give him 100M.
December 28, 2006 at 9:27 am
Rosenthal says 7 years/$120M+, according to a ML source.
December 28, 2006 at 9:28 am
In light of this new information from Yahoo sports, Padres fans should be happy that Zito signed with the Giants for…drumroll please…….7 years/126 million dollars
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
Yikes!
December 28, 2006 at 9:28 am
SI’s Heyman says it’s done, at $126 mil.
December 28, 2006 at 9:40 am
My favorite part of the deal is that the Giants have an option for an 8th year at another 18M. Total value of deal:144M. I can’t believe that after the Kevin Brown experience and the Dreifort experience that someone is going to guarantee a pitcher 5+ years.
December 28, 2006 at 9:41 am
What would Johan Santana be worth on the open market?
December 28, 2006 at 9:48 am
I think the Giants had to do something to make a splash. They have been trying to spend money all off-season, but nobody would take it. (Well, except Doc.) Funny quote over at mlbrumors.com that the Giants are not interested in Randy Johnson, since he’s not old enough.
December 28, 2006 at 9:48 am
#5: Ouch. They should have kept Schmidt.
#8: If you have to ask…
December 28, 2006 at 9:55 am
Just wanted to say, I will be in Cooperstown to see him get inducted into the hall of fame. Sure, I live in San Diego and have a full time job, but Gwynn is the closest thing I have ever had to a “boyhood hero.”
Hopefully, we can get a good showing of folks from Ducksnorts, Gaslampball, etc.. =)
December 28, 2006 at 10:00 am
Okay, so what I love about coming to this blog is that I’ll come here with one idea but then look at what the experts are saying and think otherwise (and then tell my concerned family).
So…. there was a time I was worried about the moves the padres have made. But Geoff (and you guys) have done a great job about reassuring me that things are fine.
But I look at all the big name moves the Giants are making and I’m going “eeek”. I realize that “big name” doesn’t always mean “big success”. I feel like the Giants could have all the makings of one big dysfunctional family. But the point is… shouldn’t we at least be concerned!? (and more than in the “be concerned about everybody because you never know” kind of way)
December 28, 2006 at 10:16 am
For any interested…
Baseball prospectus article on San Diego Padres Top Ten Prospects
http://www.baseballprospectus......14a0415657
I don’t know if this requires a subscription. They are
Excellent Prospects
None
Very Good Prospects
1. Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3b
2. Cesar Carillo, rhp
Good Prospects
3. Cedric Hunter, cf
4. Matt Antonelli, 3b
Average Prospects
5. Nick Hundley, c
6. Chase Headley, 3b
7. Paul McAnulty, 1b/3b/of
8. Will Venable, lf
9. Kyler Burke, rf
10. Chad Huffman, lf
Looks like the cellar needs restocking
December 28, 2006 at 10:28 am
#12: Thanks, Steve. “Things are fine” might be overstating it a bit, but I still think the Pads are in relatively good shape. Looks to me like the Giants are putting all their eggs in the 2007 basket. I’m not sure that they’re quite strong enough to pull it off, but they have the potential to make the NL West even more interesting than it was last year. If nothing else, this is going to be a fascinating division — it’s possible that there won’t be any lousy teams to beat up on anymore.
December 28, 2006 at 10:56 am
To clarify, “things are fine” is a phrase reserved for after winning the World Series.
December 28, 2006 at 11:28 am
Well the Giants put all their eggs in the 2006 basket as well as look how well that turned out for them.
They are going to have a nice rotation, but their bullpen isn’t very good and if Bonds gets hurt they’ll have the worst offense in the NL
December 28, 2006 at 11:40 am
PECOTA is bullish on Kouzmanoff as well, projecting him with a .289 EQA this year (that’s second only to B. Giles .299). Silver also notes that the Padres might be the favorite in the National League this year citing “an above-average regular at every position” and “perhaps the best 1-2-3 in the NL in Peavy-Young-Maddux.”
http://www.baseballprospectus......3740a73410
December 28, 2006 at 12:01 pm
All this talk about lead-off, why is the obvious choice of B. Giles not discussed? Declining power, great OBP, so-so speed. With DR gone, we don’t have any pure base-stealers, and I think they are overrated. I have played around with creating a database of baseball variables to see what helps create runs, and stolen bases have neglible impact.
So, lead with Giles.
If we could just get a decent LF, our club is looking solid. I really do hope we get Wells (or B-Law). Peavy-Young-Maddux-Wells/BLaw-Hensley (BLaw would be the 5th starter).
Any ideas for a RHB who can play 1B? AGon cannot play all 162 games so it would be nice to have someone who can spot against nasty lefties. I hate to say it, but Nevin? He is still available, cheap and can play 1B and 3B. I would also consider Loretta for another bench player. He can play SS and 2B. Given Kahlil’s propensity for injury, it would be nice to have a plausible replacement.
December 28, 2006 at 2:30 pm
18 - I imagine Blum, Branyan and Walker would be backups at 1B.
December 28, 2006 at 2:35 pm
Speaking of baseballprospectus, over there currently is an interesting piece by Nate Silver, a short piece, on the Pads chances in ‘07. Very encouraging, and I’m inclined to agree with him. And no subscription required! It’s at http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=122
About Zito, he’s a good pitcher who has declined markedly in the last 3 years. The Giants won 76 games last season. I would guess that 91 wins is what it’ll take to win the NL west next season. Barry Zito doesn’t add 15 wins all by himself - as a matter of fact, he’s not as good as the pitcher (Schmidt) he’s replacing.
And like # 7 brings up, the obvious question is “8 years? For a pitcher?”
December 28, 2006 at 4:39 pm
19: I was hoping for good back ups. Walker, Branyan, OK, but you don’t get any platoon lift. Blum is a switch hitter that cannot hit as a RHB. I forgot they re-signed Blum, so he is the extra guy I was thinking of. So scratch the Loretta comment, but a RH bat with some pop that could play the corners would be a nice addition. A cheap one.
December 28, 2006 at 5:10 pm
#21
Counsell would have been an ideal fit for this team. I still think we should go after Loretta and dump Blum. He (Blum) just really can’t hit, and a backup infielder who can’t play shortstop is of little use to the Padres, since they have two third basemen and a second baseman who has a good health record, as opposed to an injury-prone shortstop. I bring this up almost every time I post here, but here it is again: I do not want to see Manny Alexander in a Padres uni next season. I’ll go out there and take grounders myself if I have to.
(My entire SS experience consists of 3 innings in high school, emergency situation. 2 chances, 1 error. I’m still better than Manny.)
December 28, 2006 at 5:12 pm
And I forgot that Walker can (sort of) play 3rd and 2nd, which gives the Pads a third 3B and a second 2B, thus making Blum even more superfluous.
December 28, 2006 at 5:34 pm
I’ll be In Cooperstown…already booking flights and rooms this week, figuring that there will be a boom after the announcements and wanting to get them now…
December 28, 2006 at 6:15 pm
Sad news about former Giant/Padre Chris Brown:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=2709764
December 28, 2006 at 6:49 pm
Re: 21/22 the pads have a 1 year $2 mil offer out to Loretta but he does not want to be a back up, nor should he be one.
December 28, 2006 at 7:39 pm
I don’t know if he should be too picky with that slugging pct. in Fenway Park.
December 28, 2006 at 9:54 pm
Manny is a STUD w/ the glove. I love him as a glove-only guy… But Jay_SF is right, this team is a bit too left-handed
Regulars:
Giles (OG)
Gonzales
Sledge
Bench:
P-Mac
Blum (Siwtch)
Walker
Branyan
December 28, 2006 at 9:59 pm
I was just revisiting my top 25 Padres prospects and I like Kevin’s top 10.
Obviously Kouzmanoff wasn’t available when I was ranking them. He’s an easy #1.
I still like Carrillo a lot and when he is healthy he’ll be a force.
Hunter might end up being the best of the bunch, but having only played Rookie ball (essentially) he’s #3 here.
Headley has strugled so I don’t have a problem putting Hundley in front of him.
I don’t like P-Mac in front of Venable, and Burke, Huffman (whom I rated too low), Freese, & even Blanks are all solid.
December 28, 2006 at 10:02 pm
My revised top 10:
1. Kouzmanoff
2. Carrillo
3. Hunter
4. Antonelli
5. Venable
6. Hundley
7. McAnulty
8. Headley
9. Freese
10. Blanks/Huffman
December 28, 2006 at 10:47 pm
Rich - I still need to make a hotel res for the Cooperstown area also … I haven’t checked for a long time … s’pose I’m resigned to finding something in Albany, which I understand to be a 2-hour drive … what have you found?
Anyone else?
December 29, 2006 at 12:18 am
RE the Giants: Too old, no one can get on base other than Barry and all the BB’s will wear him out.
RE Zito: I know it’s crazy, but if there’s any pitcher I might give a long term contract to, it’s him. He’s shown great durability already and he’s a guy who takes great care of himself and has solid mechanics. Nothing is guaranteed, of course, and it’s a huge risk, but a calculated one, imo. Also, althought the dollars look crazy, in two or three years with the way inflation runs on baseball salaries, it’s likely to be a bargain.
All that being said, he still won’t put them over the top this year, but he could be a useful piecein two or three years if they ever do decide to rebuild.
Curious to know why David thinks he’s not as good as Schmidt. Zito is 5 years younger and has been as good or better, as far as I can see, over the past 5 years.
December 29, 2006 at 12:23 am
BP puts the lie to my assessment of Zito:
http://www.baseballprospectus......red/?p=123
Very interesting article!
December 29, 2006 at 6:26 am
I hate the fact that we’re so left handed.
I’d go for Loretta over Blum, but then we have no backup SS. Not that Blum is great there by any stretch, but I reckon he’s better than Loretta. Considering how fragile Khalil’s digits are, I can’t see Manny A being our top reserve SS option.
December 29, 2006 at 9:47 am
#32
I’ll take the right-handed power pitcher over the finesse lefty any day of the week. Check and see what type of pitcher tends to age better.
Also, check out Zito’s k-rate the last 3 seasons. A river doesn’t tend to reverse course.