Furthermore, the decreases in 2004 and 2005 are certainly influenced by playing in Petco, which we all know has been one of the parks which most strongly suppresses power numbers, if not THE park to most strongly suppress power, since it opened.

Again, I just don’t believe the sort of radical decline in power/SLG we saw in 2006 was “highly predictable.” It certainly could have been projected that the sort of gradual decline, once park factor is adjusted for, from 2002, his last healthy year in Pittsburgh, to what we saw in 2004 and 2005 in Petco, but not the radical drop in 2006. I guess we’ll see what sort off bounce, if any, he’ll experience in the next two years.

The off season is still going on. There’ll be other bench players to be had. Counsell, at this point, is no longer an everyday player and I think he went back to Milwaukee for the safety of the contract.

I would say 3 mil is a bit high for a backup

Anyway, I still disagree with the conclusion, but you raise some compelling points. Nice analysis.

And I would love to see Burrell or Dunn in LF next year for us.

I can remember that I thought he was already declining when we got him, so I’ve had to go back and find the #s again to make sure my recollection was correct. It was (in my opinion).

Biggest thing I remember is his SLG% had dropped big time YoY for the 105 games he played in Pit that year. Here are his Pittsburg SLG%’s:
‘99: .614 (141 games)
‘00: .594 (156 g.)
‘01: .590 (160 g.)
‘02: .622 (153 g.)
‘03: .521 (105g.) – 100 pt drop while still in Pittsburgh

Now, .521 isn’t chopped liver, but it was a big drop from recent performance, and he had recently turned 32 – not old, but no spring chicken. Also, one data point certainly doesn’t a trend make, so you can forgive KT for not wanting to believe it. He only hit 16 HR’s in those 105 games for Pittsburgh, which changed his rate of HR per Hit significantly:
‘99 23.8% of hits were HR’s
‘00 19.9%
‘01 20.8%
‘02 25.7%
‘03 (Pit games only) 13.8%

He still hit plenty of 2B’s and got a lot of BB’s, so the trade is certainly defendable. And, with the good OBP his OPS is still over .900 at this point, but that’s the flaw in OPS…if you’re couting on a guy to hit bombs, and instead he walks a bit more and hits far fewer HRs, you’re not getting what you paid for even though the OPS looks good.

I’m not contending this was a no-doubter (to not do the trade), but I distinctly remember thinking “Man, his power seems to have really dropped off despite playing at PNC park”. At that time, I loved Ollie Perez (power lefty with fantastic peripherals you control for the next several years) and Jason Bay (huge raw talent unfortunately set back by a non-chronic injury), so to me the ledger leaned against doing the trade.

What really gets me going is the new contract after ‘05. The power decline which started before the trade really continued through ‘04 and ‘05 and should have been a factor in whether to sign him again or not. OK, he’s getting older, Petco is hurting him, etc., at least we can let him walk after ‘05, no hard feelings. Nope! Let’s give him 3yr/$30MM just so he can’t go to the Dodgers. Now, that deal in light of today’s contracts seems really affordable, but in the context of last year’s market, and where the Padres were salary-wise a year ago, I thought it was a really bad deal. Only $8MM of that deal was paid in ‘06, so he’s got $22MM left over the next 2 years.

I have to believe there are GM’s out there with bandbox stadiums that will believe he can bounce back power-wise in their parks, and would see 2yr/$22MM as a steal in this market if he can again put up a .900 OPS. He HAS to be very tradeable right now. Trade him to Philly for Burrell. That saves Linebrink for the ‘07 pen or to get a fast Dave Roberts-esque OF’er to man cavernous RF.

Anyway, I’ve gone on way too long. I’m sure the Giles Defense Committee will have plenty of objections to this post.

“Some of you are not going to like this.

PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS BA OBP SLG VORP WARP
475 76 27 3 14 60 70 86 4 2 .286 .395 .472 20.9 4.7

That’s a hot-off-the-presses PECOTA projection for J.D. Drew in Boston. Fourteen home runs? What gives?

Park effects for one thing. Dodger Stadium has a reputation as a pitcher’s park which is no longer really warranted. In fact, it’s a downright good park for home runs, especially for left-handed hitters; I have its park factor for lefty home runs at 1045. Fenway, conversely, rates as a 903 for left-handed power; only AT&T Park has a lower score.

League effects are another. As I opined earlier today, the superior competition in the American League has become an increasingly important factor in player analysis. It’s an especially important factor in Drew’s case for a couple of reasons:

(i) Not only is the American League more difficult, but it also has a different “shape”. In particular, somewhat contrary to its reputation, it tends to favor contact hitting and guys who put the ball in play. The National League, by contrast, is a Three True Outcomes league. Those are Drew’s strengths — and he’s moving away from them.

(ii) The American League has a significantly higher fraction of left-handed pitching. PECOTA isn’t quite sophisticated enough to take this distinction into account … but if it did, Drew’s projection would be even more pessimistic.

Now, the news isn’t all bad. Drew’s strong OBP, doubles power, and reasonable defense make him a valuable player, even if he’s a long shot to appear in 150 contests. His MORP works out to about $10.5 million for 2007, given current market trends. But on account of his checkered health history, it declines quickly from there. This contract is, in its own way, just as problematic as some of the deals for slugging-heavy outfielders that were signed in November. ”

That’s very interesting stuff about Dodger Stadium in there too. I did not realize it was changing reputation so much.

Ronnie Belliard, Miguel Cairo, Chris Gomez, Mark Loretta, Chris Woodward, Jose Hernandez, Tomas Perez, Jose Vizcaino, Tony Graffanino.

Woodward would probably be the best righty 2B platoon-mate who could also backup SS, but that’s not a very attractive option I don’t think.

What about Aaron Boone? Sure, he’s a 3B. But can also play 2B/SS. Righty hitter…

Overall, there’s not a whole lot still out there that I’d be interested in.