Comments on: Might As Well Jump http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html Fri, 19 Mar 2010 15:39:32 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9 hourly 1 By: The Fathers http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29557 The Fathers Sat, 07 Oct 2006 14:46:25 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29557 Re 73: The espn.com scouting reports do show that the Padres lineup is susceptible to curves, and surprisingly it is the lefthanded hitters who are pretty vulnerable. The lefties try to pull everything and the only good curve to pull for an extra base hit is a high one; otherwise one has to stay back and drive it up the middle or down the LF line. I am pretty sure the Padres got 3 walks against Weaver in 5 innings - that is a pretty good walk rate. The problem was that they only got 1 hit - totally unacceptable. The Padres cannot allow Suppan to start them off with fat get me over first pitch curves, and then face another curve on 0-1 or 0-2 or 1-2. We'll see whether Suppan follows Weaver's strategy (he should because he has awful general numbers against the current Padres) AND whether the Padres can adjust. Re 73: The espn.com scouting reports do show that the Padres lineup is susceptible to curves, and surprisingly it is the lefthanded hitters who are pretty vulnerable. The lefties try to pull everything and the only good curve to pull for an extra base hit is a high one; otherwise one has to stay back and drive it up the middle or down the LF line.

I am pretty sure the Padres got 3 walks against Weaver in 5 innings – that is a pretty good walk rate. The problem was that they only got 1 hit – totally unacceptable.

The Padres cannot allow Suppan to start them off with fat get me over first pitch curves, and then face another curve on 0-1 or 0-2 or 1-2. We’ll see whether Suppan follows Weaver’s strategy (he should because he has awful general numbers against the current Padres) AND whether the Padres can adjust.

]]> By: Masticore317 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29556 Masticore317 Sat, 07 Oct 2006 13:24:54 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29556 Doesn't matter to me if Mae Young plays 3B, as long as we get some hits. Doesn’t matter to me if Mae Young plays 3B, as long as we get some hits.

]]> By: Kelly O'Connor http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29555 Kelly O'Connor Sat, 07 Oct 2006 01:26:29 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29555 70: Rich, if the Firefox extension doesn't work, I snagged the .wmv file--just let me know if you need it. 70: Rich, if the Firefox extension doesn’t work, I snagged the .wmv file–just let me know if you need it.

]]> By: Anthony http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29554 Anthony Sat, 07 Oct 2006 01:12:00 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29554 Great points Big. A steady diet of curves is flirting with disaster because a hanging curve is the easiest pitch to hit hard. Good point about Weaver leaving early too. I was sure LaRussa was going to leave him in too long but 5 innings must have been the limit in their game plan. The whole episode is a great example of how a manager can influence a game beyond the standard moves everyone thinks of. Rich, there's an extension for the Firefox browser that will probably allow you to save that video: https://addons.mozilla.org/firefox/2390/ OT, here's a great article from SI about a 1986 meeting between Ted Williams, Wade Boggs and Don Mattingly: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/magazine/10/06/rap.session/index.html Some interesting discussion in there about patience at the plate, hitting mechanics, pitchers, and the famous burning bat story. Too bad Tony Gwynn wasn't there. Great points Big. A steady diet of curves is flirting with disaster because a hanging curve is the easiest pitch to hit hard. Good point about Weaver leaving early too. I was sure LaRussa was going to leave him in too long but 5 innings must have been the limit in their game plan. The whole episode is a great example of how a manager can influence a game beyond the standard moves everyone thinks of.

Rich, there’s an extension for the Firefox browser that will probably allow you to save that video:
https://addons.mozilla.org/firefox/2390/

OT, here’s a great article from SI about a 1986 meeting between Ted Williams, Wade Boggs and Don Mattingly:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2006/magazine/10/06/rap.session/index.html

Some interesting discussion in there about patience at the plate, hitting mechanics, pitchers, and the famous burning bat story. Too bad Tony Gwynn wasn’t there.

]]> By: BigKTfan http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29553 BigKTfan Sat, 07 Oct 2006 00:51:49 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29553 Sounds like a lot people missed the point about Bochy's and Roberts' statements about dubling up and throwng curves for strikes. It isn't necessarily that the Pads are especially susceptible to curves; it is that their strategy against Weaver was to be aggressive because his career pitching pattern was to go curve, then fastball. Yesterday he went curve, then curve again, and then curve again --- something he had rarely, if ever, done in his career. And why did it work? Two reasons: The Pads continued to stay aggressive --- only a couple of walks --- and were off balance because they were guessing wrong, and more importantly, Weaver was able to keep his curve down and throw it for strikes. If Weaver stays in to pitch the sixth, maybe the Pads adjust, but for a 5-inning pitcher, the strategy worked great. When a pitcher totally changes his pattern and is able to throw the ball for strikes, not much hitters can do. That's why Woody is so successful when his curve is hitting spots despite his mediocre stuff. Most hitters will tell you that if a pitcher can spot his curve, batters are going to be in for a long day. Sure, Suppan can try the the same strategy, but if he hangs a curve it's an extra-base hit, or if he can't throw his curve for strikes, batters will sit fastball and have a field day against him. Sounds like a lot people missed the point about Bochy’s and Roberts’ statements about dubling up and throwng curves for strikes. It isn’t necessarily that the Pads are especially susceptible to curves; it is that their strategy against Weaver was to be aggressive because his career pitching pattern was to go curve, then fastball. Yesterday he went curve, then curve again, and then curve again — something he had rarely, if ever, done in his career.

And why did it work?

Two reasons: The Pads continued to stay aggressive — only a couple of walks — and were off balance because they were guessing wrong, and more importantly, Weaver was able to keep his curve down and throw it for strikes. If Weaver stays in to pitch the sixth, maybe the Pads adjust, but for a 5-inning pitcher, the strategy worked great. When a pitcher totally changes his pattern and is able to throw the ball for strikes, not much hitters can do. That’s why Woody is so successful when his curve is hitting spots despite his mediocre stuff.

Most hitters will tell you that if a pitcher can spot his curve, batters are going to be in for a long day. Sure, Suppan can try the the same strategy, but if he hangs a curve it’s an extra-base hit, or if he can’t throw his curve for strikes, batters will sit fastball and have a field day against him.

]]> By: The Fathers http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29552 The Fathers Sat, 07 Oct 2006 00:31:19 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29552 There is a good reason to put Walker at 3rd on Saturday, actually two. First, Chris Young is an extreme flyball pitcher, so that minimizes any defensive liabilities risked by putting Walker at third. Second, Walker is a much better hitter than Blum. A couple other decent reasons are that Blum is better off the bench - one of the best PH in the NL this year, and it will get fans off the back of Bochy for not having Barfield in there, even though Walker was a better pregame choice vs. Weaver. There is a good reason to put Walker at 3rd on Saturday, actually two. First, Chris Young is an extreme flyball pitcher, so that minimizes any defensive liabilities risked by putting Walker at third. Second, Walker is a much better hitter than Blum.

A couple other decent reasons are that Blum is better off the bench – one of the best PH in the NL this year, and it will get fans off the back of Bochy for not having Barfield in there, even though Walker was a better pregame choice vs. Weaver.

]]> By: Rich Campbell http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29551 Rich Campbell Sat, 07 Oct 2006 00:31:08 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29551 too bad I wasn't wearing a Ducksnorts or Gaslamp Ball tee... and that I came out with "psychologically into their heads"... D'oh! I sound like Nuke LaLoosh... too bad I wasn’t wearing a Ducksnorts or Gaslamp Ball tee… and that I came out with “psychologically into their heads”… D’oh! I sound like Nuke LaLoosh…

]]> By: Rich Campbell http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29550 Rich Campbell Sat, 07 Oct 2006 00:20:11 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29550 http://www.10news.com/video/10017921/index.html alright, who knows how I can save this? "Fan Reaction", the Woody Williams/Chad Tracy look alike... http://www.10news.com/video/10017921/index.html

alright, who knows how I can save this? “Fan Reaction”, the Woody Williams/Chad Tracy look alike…

]]> By: Ben B. http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29549 Ben B. Fri, 06 Oct 2006 23:30:27 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29549 Good news: According to Baseball Prospectus' postseason series odds, the Padres have a better chance to advance to the next round than the Dodgers. Bad news: that chance is still only 12.3%. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/postseasonodds.php Good news: According to Baseball Prospectus’ postseason series odds, the Padres have a better chance to advance to the next round than the Dodgers.
Bad news: that chance is still only 12.3%.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/postseasonodds.php

]]> By: Anthony http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html/comment-page-2#comment-29548 Anthony Fri, 06 Oct 2006 22:55:14 +0000 http://ducksnorts.com/blog/2006/10/might-as-well-jump.html#comment-29548 Darren Smith on 1090 said Khalil took BP today and it's basically Khalil's decision. If he thinks he can play he'll be in the lineup. Also, Piazza will start and maybe Walker at third, which I don't get but whatever. A shakeup is definitely in order. Darren Smith on 1090 said Khalil took BP today and it’s basically Khalil’s decision. If he thinks he can play he’ll be in the lineup. Also, Piazza will start and maybe Walker at third, which I don’t get but whatever. A shakeup is definitely in order.

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