Friday Links (20 Oct 06)
Fri, Oct 20, 2006
by Geoff Young
As part of my research for the upcoming Ducksnorts book, I’m going through all posts from the end of 2005 to present. Here’s a nugget I found from last November, when the Dodgers fired Paul DePodesta as GM:
Oh well, their loss. As a Padres fan, I’m happy enough he’s out of the division. (My wife asks if there’s any chance DePodesta could come to San Diego. Honestly? I have no idea, but it’s an interesting question.)
Mad props to my wife. She didn’t outright say that DePodesta would end up here, but at least she was asking the question.
Anyway, just had to give credit where due. Now onto the lnks:
- Busy offseason doesn’t appear in store for A’s (Contra Costa Times). Peter Friberg sends this article, which features, among other things, an update on the status of free agent left-hander Mark Mulder, whom the A’s may have interest in and who several Ducksnorts commenters have mentioned as a potential addition to the Padres for 2007. According to writer Josh Suchon, Mulder won’t be available to pitch until the All-Star break.
- Speaking of Peter, he’s started his Hot Stove Primer by resetting the current roster and seeing just how much money the Padres will have to spend this winter.
- Sox hire Magadan (Boston Globe). Former Padres hitting coach Dave Magadan has been hired by the Red Sox as, um, their, um, something. I still need to go back and figure out if the Pads did any better under Merv Rettenmund than under Magadan.
- Kelly O’Connor has posted photos of this year’s Padres rookie hazing. [Tip o' the Ducksnorts cap to Gaslamp Ball.]
- M’s hire scout in Japan (Seattle Post-Intelligencer). Old article, but read the comments to see what folks were saying about Japanese third baseman Akinori Iwamura two years ago. The Padres are rumored to be interested in Iwamura, who will be playing in North America next season.
Happy Friday, y’all. Is it spring training yet?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 20, 2006 at 7:10 am
Ahhh hot stove…then spring training.
Oh wait, we still have the WS!!!
So many reasons to root for both teams…thank goodness none of them have to do with my wife having a crush on one of the players. It was intense last night with me rooting for the Cards and Mrs. CM rooting for Delgado.
Did y’all see that catch by Endy Chavez to rob Rolen? Oh my goodness it was the LF version of Griffey.
October 20, 2006 at 7:22 am
The Padres scored about 3/4 more runs per game under Rettenmund. However, Magadan was dealing with all those useless at-bats portioned out to Castilla and Young. I don’t think you can say that Merv caused the offensive improvement, and teams he’s coached haven’t blown anyone’s doors off in the playoffs.
October 20, 2006 at 7:26 am
Thanks, TW, that’s good to know. It also would be interesting to see how individual hitters responded to Merv vs Mags. I did look at this about a month or so into Merv’s tenure and found that Barfield and Gonzalez caught fire after his hiring. I think we’re all agreed that the Padres’ performance with RISP against the Cards couldn’t have been any worse with Magadan on the bench.
October 20, 2006 at 7:48 am
It’s just about impossible to parse out what impact a coach might have had. Did Gonzalez and Barfield heat up because Merv laid his healing hands upon them or because they, like young players have often done, adapted and grew more comfortable?
They can hire Mr. Magoo as batting coach if they land better hitters for LF and 3b.
October 20, 2006 at 7:51 am
True. All we can look at is results. Although I think I’d prefer not to have Mr. Magoo as hitting coach.
October 20, 2006 at 8:55 am
“They can hire Mr. Magoo as batting coach if they land better hitters for LF and 3b.”
True dat. Trying to lay blame for the punchless offense on the hitting coach is like blaming the UAW for General Motors’ share price. Sure they should pay closer attention to build quality, but they are still tasked will welding together crappy designs.
Imagine for a second how good a team this will be if they can raise the team Slg% and OBP to league average level…
October 20, 2006 at 9:05 am
Totally off the topic, but here one for the water-cooler. Which playoff homerun was more unlikely, Aaron Boone’s in ‘03 or Molina’s last night?
October 20, 2006 at 9:36 am
Let’s just play a for-instance here regarding the Pads off-season moves. Peter Friberg has mentioned the possibility of Lee and Soriano in left. they both scare me a little (Soriano’s season was way above his norms, much like Beltere’s big season a few years ago. Both were their free-agent years. There is actually a body of statistic evidence that suggests those free-agent year spikes aren’t total flukes). Lee is probably a safer bet, but he’s a terrible defensive outfielder. I don’t think the Pads should rate defense over production, but if you thought Ryan Klesko was bad out there, wait until you see this guy. With Roberts (apparently) gone, the other real question is who leads off. BArfield is fast, but doesn’t have the plate discipline. Likewise Cameron. I’m not sure there’s an acceptable solution on the market, but I’m just throwing it out there as a concern.
Everybody seems to think SD will go hard after Zito. I really am scared by that, as it will require a 5-year contract and his declining K rate has to raise red flags. Same with Mulder. I know SD needs a LH starter, and I know Zito has always been healthy and has always won, but I just don’t quite trust him. After seeing his ALCS start I was even more scared. On ESPN.com there has been suggestion of Peavy for A-Rod. I’m not crazy about it, but I also can see how the Pads might want to maximize Peavy’s value before he gets seriously hurt. Doing that deal would necessitate signing Zito first. Olney also suggests that if those deals both happened, then the Pads would trade Greene for a #3-type starter - like a Kris Benson type. I’m not sure how I feel about that. Greene should get a shot to prove he can play, but all indications are that he’s not really very good. And he can’t stay healthy. Still, I like him enough to suggest he get one more shot.
October 20, 2006 at 9:49 am
David, I am pretty sure the Pads have said that if they do not retain DR, Giles will bat lead-off next season.
Not bad for our 3/$32 man eh?! Can we trade him for a bag of doughnuts? I am sure the Braves would love to have him.
October 20, 2006 at 10:09 am
#7: Boone’s OPS+ in ‘03 was 103, Molina’s this year was 54. As point of reference, Gary Bennett’s was 64 in his one season with the Pads. So imagine a worse hitter than Bennett knocking a GW homer to propel his team into the WS and tell me there’s anything less likely than that.
#8: I’m still holding out hope for Adam Dunn. Anyone have a clue what it might take to land him?
October 20, 2006 at 10:22 am
re #10:
Dunn would be interesting (although if he batted behind Cameron we would see 300 Ks between the two of them). The Reds need pitching, of course, but ground-ball oriented pitching, which rules out Young and Peavy. Hensley alone wouldn’t be enough, but he is, by far the Pads best ground-ball starter. The Reds also need a 1B, and Gonzalez and Hensley might be enough, although I don’t think the Pads make that move. And, frankly, although I am probably in the minority here, I think Hensley is going to end up being a very good starter, and Gonzalez may end up as a solid 1B for many years.
October 20, 2006 at 11:35 am
Ya know, Geoff, I linked to my rookie photos in comments here first last Friday, but my post apparently decided to stop at Rubio’s when it hit SD… I’ll add that I do have a lot of Padre photographs on my site of the guys in uniforms instead of costumes!
A poster over at Sons of Sam Horn ran some Padres pre- and post-All-Star-Break numbers:
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.....p;p=497070
YMMV on the interpretations, of course.
It’s official that Magadan is the Red Sox hitting coach, by the way:
http://www.boston.com/sports/b.....tra_bases/
October 20, 2006 at 1:37 pm
I am guessing that a #3 starter would land Dunn. From what I understand, he has lost favor with the Reds front office and his value is diminished.
A guy like Young may intrigue them b/c he has piched in Texas (Coors light) and has shown a great maturity. I am guessing that they would even consider moving him for a guy like Ben Johnson. I don’t think people in SD understand that Ben Johnson is pretty well regarded outside the Pads organization. If he is not starting for us next year, he will be starting somewhere.
October 20, 2006 at 1:57 pm
Something interesting from the Contra Costa Times today…
http://www.contracostatimes.co.....sco_giants
They are talking about the 4 candidates for the Giants managerial job…Bochy is one of them. Since I am sorta hoping that Boch is gone, I am following with interest.
What they say about Boch is here:
Bruce Bochy
• Age: 51
• Current position: San Diego manager
• Background: Played parts of nine big-league seasons as backup catcher. Has spent past 24 years in Padres system. In 12 seasons as manager, club has four division titles and one NL pennant. Is coming off consecutive NL West titles.
• Advantages: Crushes field in experience. Knows division. Laid-back style resonates with players. Commands respect while saying few words. Established presence is better sell for free agents. Bullpen management considered strength.
• Disadvantages: Has detractors as game strategist. Giants have limited window to speak with him. Could face tough mental adjustment after quarter-century with Padres.
October 20, 2006 at 2:13 pm
Pitching Question…Anyone think we have a chance to sign a veteran pitcher like Andy Pettite? Or are we more likely to sign a guy like Kerry Wood…a reclimation project on an incentive laden deal?
October 20, 2006 at 2:16 pm
And, as long as I am talking to myself, I am interested to see the following note from the North County Times…
Padres RHP Chris Young is among 11 pitchers on a 24-man team representing Major League Baseball in its biannual competition against a team of Japanese All-Stars. Young was named Tuesday to the squad that will travel to Japan in November for a five-game series against the best of Nippon Professional Baseball.
October 20, 2006 at 4:27 pm
Thanks, Kelly, for the SoSH link. Unforunately, Magadan was let go about a month before the ASB. Here are some more instructive numbers:
Piazza
Mags: 162 AB, .259/.326/.457
Merv: 237 AB, .300/.353/.532
Bard
Mags: 67 AB, .358/.397/.657
Merv: 164 AB, .329/.410/.488
Gonzalez
Mags: 212 AB, .269/.318/.439
Merv: 358 AB, .324/.388/.536
Barfield
Mags: 220 AB, .255/.292/.373
Merv: 319 AB, .298/.335/.458
Bellhorn
Mags: 114 AB, .219/.299/.430
Merv: 139 AB, .165/.273/.273 (yikes!)
Greene
Mags: 228 AB, .211/.301/.399
Merv: 184 AB, .288/.343/.462
Blum
Mags: 79 AB, .278/.301/.367
Merv: 197 AB, .244/.290/.365
Roberts
Mags: 213 AB, .300/.371/.441
Merv: 286 AB, .287/.351/.357
Cameron
Mags: 190 AB, .247/.329/.363
Merv: 362 AB, .279/.368/.544
Giles
Mags: 245 AB, .273/.384/.388
Merv: 359 AB, .256/.366/.404
Again, without implying causation, Piazza, Gonzalez, Barfield, Greene, and Cameron all showed marked improvement under Rettemund; Bard (small sample), Bellhorn, and Roberts saw their production drop; and Blum and Giles stayed about the same. Much of Cameron’s slow start can be attributed to his oblique injury, which severly curtailed his power for several weeks.
Incidentally, check out Roberts’ career line under Magadan: 624 AB, .284/.361/.433. Just sayin’…
October 20, 2006 at 4:39 pm
I think a Clay Hensley for Adam Dunn deal might be accepted by the Reds. This is the team that traded Austin Kearns AND Felipe Lopez for two average middle relievers. They continue to need pitching, and Hensley is an extreme ground ball pitcher would seem to fit in well at the GABP. He is also young and extremely cheap. I guess we would probably need a throw-in, but nobody major.
October 20, 2006 at 5:18 pm
How about Hensley and McNulty?
October 20, 2006 at 5:36 pm
17: thanks for those more precise numbers, Geoff, though I’m not sure at what exact date I’d start counting the numbers for Rettemund, as I can’t imagine coaching takes immediate effect! (The SoSH link had the simple value of being already done, as a starting point, thus preventing me from wasting more work time!)
As someone who followed the former Red Sox on the Padres with a little extra interest, it did seem to me that Bellhorn in particular didn’t have what he needed in coaching under Rettemund. I’m not attributing his woes to coaching, necessarily, but he’s obviously had his issues and they were getting worse, not better.
I think coaching can be relatively hard to assess, even through the numbers, as it’s often a matter of having the right coach for a given set of players. One way or the other it sounds like Magadan’s philosophy is in line with what the Sox FO wants. As a Sox fan I’m glad to have him.
General pitching thoughts… my gut on Zito says he ends up in NY. If he’s smart, with the Mets, if he’s easily seduced by cash and the Yankees decide to hold back on Matsuzaka, with NYY.
Peavy for A-Rod? I think A-Rod would do great in SD, though I believe he’s said he really wants to stay in the AL (wrt going after AL records). But I’m not at all sure Peavy’s a good fit for Yankee Stadium. I think players’ character tends to be questioned far too quickly after less-than-stellar performances, but if there’s any question about his mental toughness (in big games, or, for example, after Piazza didn’t get that foul pop) he’d quickly find himself in the same struggle A-Rod’s in. I like Peavy a lot, but I really think the AL East would destroy him at this point in his career.
With regard to Dunn, I’d hate to see the Padres give up pitching. Few things seem to come back to bite you like giving away starting pitching in the hand–even young, cheap low-rotation starters.
October 20, 2006 at 7:07 pm
#13 - no way I deal Young for anybody. I think I’d deal Peavy before CY - he’s young (younger than Peavy) and showed remarkable improvement this season (led the leagu in BAA, pitched more innings than last year and his K rate shot up dramatically. ANd he didn’t falter down the stretch like Peavy and Wells did).
#20 - I’m with you about young pitchers. Hensley has a chance to be a good pitcher. Unless SD gets a couple studs this off-season, I would be verry hesitant to mess with the rotation (which as of this writing only has 3 members)
October 20, 2006 at 7:25 pm
21: Actually, Peavy is almost exactly 2 years younger than Young. And I worry that Young’s success was due quite a bit to a ridiculously low BABIP, that was more than 50 points lower than his in Texas last year.
October 20, 2006 at 8:05 pm
22: Young’s WHIP has been pretty stable, though, hasn’t it? A bit lower in 2006 but not so much that I’d worry about a regression to the mean. Not arguing that he’ll post precisely the same numbers next year, but I can’t see trading him as a good thing, personally.
October 20, 2006 at 9:41 pm
Oh, I am most definitely against trading Young (except for A-Rod, of course), but would probably rather trade him than Peavy (probably).
October 20, 2006 at 10:24 pm
#22 -
Sorry about that. I’m not sure where or why I thought Young was younger than Peavy. It’s not like I couldn’t look it up. Sorry about the mistake.
October 20, 2006 at 10:29 pm
And I am also against trading Young at all - Peavy too, but I fear that Peavy is heading towards major surgery at some point…knock on wood, hope it doesn’t happen.
October 21, 2006 at 12:03 pm
I worry about Peavy as well. The way he pitches almost straight up and down and whips his arm across his body seems like it’s going rip his arm out sometimes.