Ducksnorts Book Excerpt: Jake and the Question Marks
Mon, Oct 30, 2006
by Geoff Young
The following excerpt is taken from the upcoming Ducksnorts book, tentatively scheduled for February 2007 publication, and provides a glimpse into the uncertainties surrounding the starting rotation headed into 2006 and how some of those were resolved.
Park quickly joined Williams in the rotation, making his first start in Atlanta on April 14 after two relief appearances. Apparently whatever mojo Park had found during the WBC remained with him in San Diego, as he compiled a 4.32 ERA over 15 starts through June (it was actually as low as 3.27 in the middle of May).
Unfortunately, a mysterious physical ailment that caused lower intestinal bleeding forced Park to miss much of the second half and pitch ineffectively when he was available. He only made seven appearances from July on, sporting a lofty 6.23 ERA during that stretch. Still, the Padres got a good half-season out of Park, who helped them more than Nevin would have. More importantly, from a life standpoint, Park ended the season healthy. During the ordeal, he had lost 15 pounds and received 10 units of blood in three separate transfusions from, among others, Jake Peavy’s wife, Katie, and Padres sports therapist Kelly Calabrese.
As for Brazelton, whatever he showed the Padres in Arizona disappeared as soon as the season began. His success turned out to be a desert mirage. After two excruciating starts, Brazelton was yanked from the rotation. He made a few relief appearances but spent most of 2006 at Triple-A Portland after demonstrating zero ability to retire big-league hitters, who batted .354/.411/.658 against him in 91 plate appearances spanning 18 innings. To put those numbers into some perspective, consider that the Cardinals’ Albert Pujols hit .359/.439/.667 in 2003.
Fortunately for the Padres, they had a secret weapon waiting to replace Brazelton. One of the team’s unsung heroes of 2006, Clay Hensley, would move into the rotation April 18 at Coors Field, of all places. After merely holding his own during the first half of the season, Hensley came on strong down the stretch, fashioning a tidy 2.66 ERA over 84 2/3 innings after the All-Star break. That brought his season ERA to 3.71, good enough for 10th in the National League — not bad for a guy who wasn’t even supposed to be in the rotation. Hensley, whose pitches have terrific movement, struggled with command at times but established himself as a potential mainstay at the back of the rotation, in the vein of, say, the departed Brian Lawrence.
Hensley wasn’t the only surprise in the 2006 rotation. Right-hander Mike Thompson, drafted 10 rounds ahead of Peavy in 1999, finally made his big-league debut. The Colorado native racked up the frequent flier miles, getting the call from Triple-A Portland whenever one of the starting five went down with injury, which was more often than anyone would have liked. Although Thompson’s numbers weren’t spectacular (4.99 ERA over 92 innings), he provided tremendous value to the club by being available when needed and keeping the team in games when called upon to start. Thompson doesn’t show up on anyone’s prospect lists, and his future as a big-league pitcher is questionable, in a Brian Tollberg kind of way, but he helped hold the Padres’ staff together in 2006 when they needed it most. Thompson provided a great example of how an organization’s farm system can help the big club even when it isn’t necessarily churning out stars. Sometimes it’s necessary to deviate from the plan, and when that happens, it’s good to know there are guys like Thompson in the minors that can help fill the gaps.
Between Park’s injury and Thompson’s inexperience, though, the Padres weren’t content to stand pat with their rotation down the home stretch. With the Los Angeles Dodgers bringing veteran Greg Maddux into the fold late, the Padres made their own move, acquiring San Diego native Wells from the Boston Red Sox. The results were mixed, and although he may have helped get the club into the playoffs, Wells was not a factor in the post-season. Unfortunately, the price for the six starts he made was Triple-A catcher George Kottaras, who likely would have competed for a job with the big club in 2007. With Kottaras now in Boston and given the uncertainty of Mike Piazza’s future, the club is betting that Josh Bard’s 2006 season wasn’t a fluke. If this seems like a big gamble for 33 1 /3 innings from a 43-year-old pitcher, that’s because it is.
Back to the front of the rotation, Peavy and Young were the only pitchers to make 30 or more starts for the Padres in 2006. Peavy finished the season second in the NL with 215 strikeouts but saw his ERA jump from 2.88 to 4.09. His peripheral numbers in 2006 weren’t appreciably worse than they had been the previous season, so some of this may have been random bad luck. Anecdotally, it seemed as though Peavy worked harder to achieve similar results, often requiring more pitches to put hitters away after getting to two strikes. His pitches per plate appearance did increase from 3.89 to 3.97, which comes out to roughly eight extra pitches a game. That’s pretty subtle, and I’m not sure it’s enough to constitute “evidence” but it does match visual observations of batters fouling off more two-strike pitches. That said, Peavy’s “off year” is one that most pitchers would kill for, and in light of Roy Oswalt’s 5 year/$73 million contract with the Astros, Peavy still looks like a tremendous bargain at 4 years for $14.5 million.
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
October 30, 2006 at 8:51 am
The pads signed Scott Strickland, dont know much about him but he has a career ERA of 3.34 but only pitched 4 innings last year, and 20 in 2005.
October 30, 2006 at 8:58 am
Steve: Signing Strickland is a good, low-risk move along the lines of bringing in Rudy Seanez a couple years ago. If healthy, Strickland could be a great guy for the middle innings.
October 30, 2006 at 10:21 am
In response to Steve from Boston’s question Saturday about Tony Gwynn’s future with the Padres, there’s this quote from the NC Times on Saturday:
“Gwynn, the head coach at San Diego State, wasn’t on the list, either. Nor does he want the job. ‘Oh, heck no,’ Gwynn said. ‘I’ll say that publicly. Not right now. I’m still trying to get a grip on the college game. At some point, I’m going to get in there and work for the organization again on a full-time basis, just not right now.’”
Here’s the link:
http://www.nctimes.com/article....._27_06.txt
October 30, 2006 at 12:01 pm
This is just speculation on Mike Berardino part but he is saying that this is a possible trade:
Arod for C.Y. and Barfield.
I don’t see either team making this deal unless the Yanks pick up about half of A-Rods remaining contract, in which I think the pads would jump at it. I think the yanks would want Greene over Barfield and they would also want more pitching like C.Y. and Linebrink or C.Y. and Hensley.
But regardless I dont see A-Rod in a Padres Jersey in 07, if he is ill buy season tix.
Link:
http://www.sportingnews.com/yo.....p?t=142479
October 30, 2006 at 3:29 pm
Geoff: Nice analysis. I especially liked the great analysis of Thompson. The Tollberg analogy was right on, and he certainly deserves credit for the important role he played. I may be a bit too optimistic, but I certainly have higher hopes for Hensley than a B-Law career path.
On an editorial note, I believe Wells is a natvie of Torrance, CA, although he did grow up in OB and graduate from PL High School.
October 30, 2006 at 4:21 pm
Pat: Glad you enjoyed it; I agree about Hensley — I’m thinking Lawrence is probably toward the low end of his upside. Thanks also for the correction on Wells; I’ll be sure to fix that. Very helpful feedback.
October 30, 2006 at 5:25 pm
An Eric Young sighting in an article at BP today …
2B Eric Young Jr., Waikiki BeachBoys (Hawaiian Winter League, Rockies)
During the first half of the regular season, Young was a bit of a novelty act. Running every time he reached base, Young led the minor leagues with 87 stolen bases, while also getting caught 31 times. During the second half, however, Young became a true offensive force at Low-A Asheville, batting .353 in 55 games after July 1 while drawing 33 walks in 206 at-bats. The hot streak has continued in Hawaii, as the 21-year-old leads the pitching-heavy circuit with a .333 batting average in 16 games, with another ten stolen bases. Third baseman Ian Stewart and shortstop Troy Tulowitzki are generally considered the best left-side infield combo in any one organization, but Young and first baseman Joe Koshansky might round out the entire infield.
… just not the Eric Young you thought, right?
October 30, 2006 at 5:34 pm
Ouch … I posted that at 4:25pm … now ducksnorts is messin’ with my mind! I’m not quite used the switchback to PST …
October 30, 2006 at 5:40 pm
I agree w/ Geoff & Pat that Hensley has a higher upside than B-Law, but here’s evidence to the contrary:
@ 26 yrs: 3.69 ERA, 210 IP, 230 H, 16 HR, 52/149 BB/SO (6.39 K/9), 1.34 WHIP
@ 27 yrs: 3.71 ERA, 187 IP, 174 H, 15 HR, 76/122 BB/SO (5.87 K/9), 1.34 WHIP
The first set of stats is B-Law’s 1st full season w/ the Padres, the 2nd is Hensley 2006 season statistics…
October 30, 2006 at 6:57 pm
SAN DIEGO (AP) – The San Diego Padres declined to exercise the 2007 options for catcher Mike Piazza and slugger Ryan Klesko on Monday, while deciding to bring back outfielder Mike Cameron and infielder-outfielder Russell Branyan.
The Padres also arranged their first interviews in their search to replace manager Bruce Bochy.
St. Louis Cardinals third base coach Jose Oquendo is scheduled to interview on Tuesday, while Trey Hillman, manager of the Japanese team Nippon Ham Fighters, is due to interview on Thursday.
October 30, 2006 at 7:28 pm
#9
I can’t really see how Lawrence’s stats are “better” than Hensley’s. The K/BB ratio is a lot better, granted, and there’s a slight, insignificant advantage in ERA and K rate, but this was Hensley’s first year as a full-time starter, and he allowed far less hits than innings pitched compared to Brian. Also, Lawrence’s stats are A) The best he would ever do, by far, and B) came after many years as a starter in the minors. Clay’s bounced around, and only been a starter for one season. And just as an observer, Hensley’s stuff is much, much better than Lawrence’s.
October 30, 2006 at 8:31 pm
A full K per 9 innings is not insignificant. 5.5/9 is about the break-even mark… Now if you look at Hensley’s splits he had a 4.84 pre-All Star break K/9 and a 7.12 K/9 post-All Star break (I don’t have B-Law’s splits). Keep in mind, missing bats (striking people out) is about the most important thing a pitcher can do. And walking people is about the worst (B-Law walked 52 in 210 IP, Hensley walked 76 in 184 IP). Now in Hensley’s favor, he gave up fewer hits and remarkably they had identical WHIPs. But the stats are so close in so many areas with each having advantages that the two pitchers look remarkably similar.
Keep in mind, I never said my evidence said B-Law was better. What I said was my evidence suggested that Hensley might not be better (potentially equal). Now if you go back and read what I wrote, I said I thought Hensley was better - despite what the stats showed.
October 30, 2006 at 8:43 pm
Peter: This is great; I may have to add a chart or two comparing Hensley and Lawrence in greater detail. Although this is a case where I think most of us like Hensley’s potential better, it’s always good to examine all available evidence and then make judgments based on how that evidence fits into the bigger picture. With Hensley, a strong second half and superior overall stuff are significant points in his favor. Good stuff…
October 30, 2006 at 8:55 pm
Geoff, at the same time, keep in mind that back in 2002 Brian’s sinker got a lot more praise (or at least I think it did) than it did before he traded after the 2005 season… I’m wondering if we would say Hensley was better if we were looking at the 2002 version of B-Law and not the 2005 version. - I don’t know, I’m just asking.
October 31, 2006 at 7:19 am
Hensley was a starter in the minor leagues. He turned into a reliever when we brought him up in 2005. He started all but 1 game he ever played in as a minor leaguer.
Agree completely on #14. Hensley’s stuff now is not as good as BLaw his first two years, when he could throw 90 when needed. His sinker moved like a knuckleball back then, his slider was 80 with a big break, and his change was better than Hensley’s is now. It’s the 2005 version that most people remember, when his fastball was 82, his slider flattened out, and his change became ineffective.
They both are, or were in Lawrence’s case, quality back-of-the-rotation starters. We still need more front-end pitching.
October 31, 2006 at 10:13 am
One minor quibble with all of this - the NL in 2002 was far, far worse than it was in 2006. In fact the NL from 2002-2004 may have been the worst collective baseball played by a league in recent memory.