State of the NL West
Thu, Sep 21, 2006
by Geoff Young
What a flat performance Wednesday night at Petco Park. On the bright side, the Dodgers dropped their second straight to the Pirates, so the Padres remain a half game up in the NL West (and in the wild card, ahead of the surging Phillies).
Monday night’s incredible comeback was supposed to be a turning point for the Dodgers, but the thing about turning points is you can’t really identify them until after you’ve reached your destination. Meantime, the race continues.
Speaking of which, Rich Lederer and Bryan Smith were gracious enough to give me a guest spot over at Baseball Analysts. The piece is about — shockingly enough — the NL West. Check it out when you have a moment. Big thanks to Rich and Bryan for having me over to the digs. Sorry ’bout the couch — it’ll clean up easy enough.
I’ve also added this one to the “Geoff’s Other Baseball Writing” page for easy future reference.
The plan: Go visit Baseball Analysts, hang out for a bit; come back here and chat. Eat, drink, be merry. Then make sure you’re back in time for the IGD, which opens up at 6 p.m. PT. This is the one night I won’t be out at Petco Park, so I’ll actually be able to hang with y’all. Woo-hoo!
Gotta go to bed. Is this post done yet?
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 21, 2006 at 12:35 am
Magic Number: 11
September 21, 2006 at 5:28 am
So I guess the value in the Wells trade was purely psychological? B/c he flat out isnt getting it done on the mound. Pennant-race game and you go out there, as the “veteran, big game guy” and allow 11H and 4ER in 6+? Sorry state of affairs. Still time to pull it together and make an on-field contribution though, but for right now I’d put DW as our 5th best starter, and I’m not sure you trade your “top prospect” (in quotes b/c that’s obviously arguable) for that.
Thank goodness the Dogs can’t get out of their own way. Someone said it best that they must think they won the division Monday night, b/c it seems like they’re just playing out the string here.
Hate to say it, but watch out for the Phillies. Have a gut feeling only one NLW team is making the playoffs due to the way the Phillies are playing recently. They’re off tonight, so a win can get us another 1/2 game on them while we maintain or grow the lead over the Dodgers. Of course, we’re facing Webb tonight…anyone know his #s against us this season? I seem to recall being dominated by him a couple times. The game you needed to win was last night, with your “big game” pitcher out there against a 5+ ERA guy, but once again the Padres play down to the level of their competition and let another poor to mediocre-at-best SP shut them down.
Woody better match Webb zero for zero tonight and hope we can get into the DB’s bullpen…
September 21, 2006 at 6:53 am
This is what happens when you listen to Bad Company.
September 21, 2006 at 7:05 am
Good point, BG. Got any other ’70s bands we can look to for inspiration? REO Speedwagon? Jethro Tull? Foreigner? Someone must be able to help us out here.
September 21, 2006 at 7:11 am
I switched over to watch the end of the Dodger game on MLB, and Kent struck out with the bases loaded and two outs in the bottom of the 9th. Pretty sweet.
Yes, the Phillies are playing well. They are playing Chicago right now, the worst team in the NL. But they swept Houston at Houston and take 2 of 3 at Atlanta before that. Their next series is the Fish at Philly, so if they blow through them, they are looking like the WC favorite.
Hopefully we can get back 8 over .500 with a win tonight. We are 0-3 on the next games after we get to 8 over .500. Right after the ASB, the LA Disaster and last night.
Yes, the Wells gambit is not looking that good. His pitching has been so-so, and you have to compare what he has done vs. the person whose innings he is taking:
Wells: 22.1 IP, 29 H, 3 BB, 11 K, 1.43 WHIP, 4.50 ERA
Thompson: 88.2 IP, 95 H, 30 BB, 34 K, 1.41 WHIP, 4.77 ERA
So, he has done much to earn the innings away from Thompson, but he has not been a disaster either. These moves are calculated risks, and my guess is that you could expect the same out Thompson, so Wells does have a bit more upside. And pressure can affect pitchers. Thompson, in relief has looked good, but poor Adkins. His last two outings have over-shadowed very solid work.
Geoff, on my rants about Petco, you replied we should get players not intimidated by the surroundings. I disagree. That is like telling pitchers at Coors not to be intimidated (before they started the whole humidor thing). These are professional players, who can focus on the road with crowd yelling, etc…; I don’t think it is intimidation; it is a heavy sea air that is almost as distorting as the thin air in Denver. Somehow that bias is legit and players should accomodate it, but the thin air is acknowledged as something no pitcher can be right fully asked to accomodate. My analysis shows that balanced parks, without a marked hitter or pitching bias, yield the greatest home field advantage. We have given ours away because of the park. We need to take it back, and that is all about the park, not the players.
September 21, 2006 at 7:19 am
I get fired up listening to Strawberry Alarm Clock and Chicago. If those two bands from the 70’s don’t get your but moving, I don’t know what does…
You’re the meaning in my life
You’re the inspiration
You bring feeling to my life
You’re the inspiration
Wanna have you near me
I wanna have you hear me saying
“No one needs you more than I need you”
Deep…that is so deep. “You’re the Inspiration” is definately overlooked as good Stadium Rock!!
September 21, 2006 at 7:23 am
Jay…Re: 5…
I don’t know how deep your analysis has been, but over the course of a season pitching parks have traditionally fared better than hitter’s parks. It is very difficult to get a net neutral field, so I am very thankful that it swings the pitcher’s way.
September 21, 2006 at 7:23 am
Jay: You may well be right about the park, but I’m not convinced yet. I’d like to see more than three years worth of data. I’d also like to understand why opposing players seem immune to whatever effects might exist. I don’t know that we have enough information right now on either front.
September 21, 2006 at 7:52 am
Coronado Mike, here is the analysis:
http://www.sports-analysis.net.....age30.html
It is 3 years of data; I am going to add 2006 as soon as it is done, but for the Padres the trend seems to be continuing. May not be enough, data, and I will extend back further, but some of the split data is harder to get.
Geoff, my conjecture, I mean hypothesis, on why it affects the Padres worse than the visitors is that for the Padres hitters, they end up doing what everyone says they should: alter their swing to accomodate the park. That is probably a bad thing. My guess is the fewer things going through the hitter’s mind the better. The visitors, only here for a few games, just keep their swing the same, with better results.
Not sure why the pitchers don’t get as much benefit (road vs. home splits). The benefit would be that the pitchers would feel free to pitch aggressively, knowing they have a big park behind them. But, they also know the offense struggles at home, so they have to be very careful. These two factors may offset each other a bit.
This issue needs more research, but if my initial findings hold up, the park is taking 5-6 wins away a year, which is huge, bigger than one of your best impact players. And easier to fix.
September 21, 2006 at 7:57 am
Clayton (#2), that’s what I wrote about last night…
Jay, no offense buddy, but I’m w/ Geoff on this one, we move the fenses in and HR rates goes up for our hitters and their hitters. I hear lots of moaning the night after a deep power-ally fly doesn’t go out, but for some reason we don’t hear the same moanings when our opponents experience the same.
Goeff is right, we need better hitters, for all San Diego’s love affair w/ our floppy-haired quiet SS. He has yet to hit well. 3B has been a void for 2 yearss now (until Walker/Branyan), Barfield is experiencing growing pains, we blinked and Giles got old…. Those are four positions where we’re not getting much production. The fact that we’re in a playoff race w/ that lack of offense is a testimony to our pitching and defense.
We DO NOT need move the fenses in more, we just need to vigilent and spend wisely this offseason.
September 21, 2006 at 8:14 am
It is thin data, so I cannot say I know what the right answer is, but someone needs to explain to me why these lame hitters we have are so un-lame on the road. The data are very strong over the first four years of park. Same hitters, but the results are dramatically different in and out of Petco. Again, visitors come and go, and are used to different parks on the road, so don’t really have to confront the affects. But play 81 games a year here, and if there are intense affects, you are going to try to make adjustments.
I love going to the Park. It is beautiful. And, I would rather have a pitchers bias than a hitters if I had to chose, almost every team has a home field advantage. We do not. I don’t buy the players are just screwing up. We have had a fair amount of turnover on this team over the four years (lots of AB’s from Nevin, Klesko, Burroughs, Payton, Nady, Hernandez, all of whom are gone) yet the trend continues. So it continues to affect the team, even when we bring in new players. I find nothing wrong with Adrian Gonzalez, love his approach, but his OPS is almost 90 points lower at home. By everyone’s logic, he is doing something wrong at home. Tell me what that is. Players change, affect stays the same, but people still point to the players. That makes no sense to me.
If you say that should be expected, given the park, then people should be bitching about how are pitchers are not pitching to the park, because they are not getting the benefit they should.
September 21, 2006 at 8:39 am
Sorry to keep ranting, but I feel a little bit like Horton Hears A Who on this. I think road results are helpful to view, because they are more or less park neutral. I like to look at Net OPS (OPS hit - OPS allowed). Correlates well with winning percentage. Anyway, most teams play worse on the road, then play better at home. The Padres have 60 point advantage on the road. List of the top five teams in baseball:
Detroit: .065
Padres: .060
Yankees: .053
Mets: .040
Chicago: .024
Some pretty good company. The difference being that when all those others teams go home, they have even a bigger OPS advantage, but the Padres go home to have a negative one. Maybe its the players, but as I wrote earlier, this has been going on a while now, with a wide variety of players, yet no one is blaming the park.
I am saying the data suggests, not definitively by any means, that we have an elite team but one that is getting crushed by Petco. So when I see all these blogs talking about player changes we need, I think we are giving Petco an undeserved free pass.
September 21, 2006 at 8:45 am
Errr, I keep saying “four years” in Petco. It’s three, but I was getting so worked up that I am mis-typing. Go Pads.
September 21, 2006 at 8:46 am
I expect that the hitters would hit worse at Petco…but I question how this team has been constructed…I have been saying all along that KT struggles when it comes to evaluating hitters.
Tying up left handed pull hitters (Klesko), Right-Handed Opposite Field power hitters (Nevin), and banking on punch-n-judy hitters to man key positions (Burroughs) has been our offensive downfall…especially when we have asked them to man the middle of our line-up.
Everyone knows what I think of KG and his middling offense and defense…couple that with the 3B hole and a RF that either got old or has forgotten to get his new HGH shipment and we are showing that our offense is not set up for success in Petco…Until we have a middle of the order hitter (or two), I would fully expect that our park effect will be exaggerated.
Don’t forget we got guys like Blum and Bellhorn getting regular AB”s. Ouch.
September 21, 2006 at 8:48 am
Jay…Re: 12…
You just rattled off some pretty good pitcher’s parks…there is a reason that the home road OPS is so drastically different…those teams play in pitcher’s parks.
September 21, 2006 at 9:03 am
#11: Jay, you make a great point about the pitchers not pitching to the park. For example, one of the things that fascinates me about Chris Young is how homeriffic (tatertastic?) he’s been at home. Conventional wisdom held that in moving from Ameriquest Field to Petco Park, he would radically improve on his home record and join the ranks of the elite pitchers in the game. But for all the good work Young has done, that hasn’t happened. His home ERA this year is more than half a run higher than it was last year despite moving from one of the most extreme hitters’ parks in MLB to a park that is at the opposite end of the spectrum. How do we explain this? And how does it fit in with what we think we might know about Petco Park? These are questions that merit serious discussion during the off-season, I think.
September 21, 2006 at 9:08 am
There’s also the outside chance the Padres could grab homefield for a series, because the Cardinals have been tanking recently.
September 21, 2006 at 9:09 am
#12: I can’t speak for anyone else, but I’m not giving Petco Park a free pass. I just need more data. Here’s another issue: What if the “fix” doesn’t work? What if the numbers don’t change appreciably and the players still complain? Do we continue to tweak the ballpark until we get it right? I don’t have the answer to this one. Does anyone know of other big-league ballparks that have undergone multiple configuration changes over a relatively short period of time? If there are any, it might be instructive to see what impact those changes had on the franchises affected.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, Jay, just that I remain agnostic at this time.
September 21, 2006 at 9:26 am
Is anyone else concerned that we are one bad day from being out of the playoffs?
September 21, 2006 at 9:26 am
Geoff, I will see if we can get the data on Qualcomm. When the brought in the fences, it changed it from a pitcher’s park to a pretty neutral one. That might be a good place to check. I will see if I can get the split data for way back then.
This needs deeper analysis, but when I see everyone griping about how bad our offense is, but my fear is we go spend a bunch of money to get more powerful hitters, only to keep seeing that we cannot play at home commensurate with our road performance.
September 21, 2006 at 9:29 am
19, oh yeah. But this is not a team dominant enough to put it away, so think it will be close all the way down. We can play great, we can play horridly, so am kind of holding my breath. The Dodgers finish with 7 games on the road, and they don’t play well on the road, so am hoping we can pass them on that stretch.
I am just thankful that the Phillies don’t have Abreu.
September 21, 2006 at 9:36 am
re: 21
I think dumping Abreu saved their season, as ironic as that sounds. I think it forced Howard and others to step up. Maybe they were expecting him to carry the load before and he couldn’t, now they’re discovering they can do a better job w/o him.
September 21, 2006 at 9:45 am
Did anyone post this yet? Pretty classic.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....he-century
September 21, 2006 at 9:49 am
I am definitely on pins & needles, but loving every minute of it. I would rather be scraping for a playoff spot now, than go into it with a huge lead, because then your guys are fresh with the “have-to-win-it-now” attitude. Lets just hope they show a little more of that attitude in the next 11 games. Teams like NY Mets might get a little lazy having clinched early and go into coast mode for the rest of the regular season, trying to get some minor leaguers playing time.
September 21, 2006 at 9:55 am
Jumping in on the ball park issue, and speaking solely from a purely anecdotal standpoint (in other words, blowing it out my . . . ) maybe we just have the wrong type of hitters.
Most of the balls hit out at Petco are line drives. Anything with some air under it, whether it be from the home team or away team, is a long out. But, at least when I think about it, the home runs are hit on a line. Even last night’s HR by Bard was pretty much on a line to the porch. It remember very few elevated home runs at Petco.
It may be that our hitters don’t have that line drive power and need some loft to get it out, where away players have more of a stroke to hit it on the line, rather than a need to get under it.
Statistically, that theory may not pan out, but I thought I’d throw that thought out there.
September 21, 2006 at 10:02 am
25, that makes some sense, but I think AGon is about as good a Petco hitter as you can want and his OPS is about 85-90 points lower at Petco.
September 21, 2006 at 10:25 am
Jay, I think that theory holds true for the type of hits that stay in the park, as well. Oh the road, it seems like we get a lot of XBH to the gap that sail over outfielders’ heads (lofted line drives). Here, though, the ball hangs up and the outfielders can get under it. One way to check that would be to check fielding percentage of our outfielders home vs. away. Again speaking from memory, it seems like there are more fly balls to the gap that Cameron gets to at Petco than he gets to on the road.
September 21, 2006 at 10:40 am
24: I think someone at THT or BTF looked at that and found it not to be true. Just as an anecdote, the 98 Padres had a 15 game lead on September 1st and coasted in from there, finishing at 9.5 ahead of the Giants. We didn’t relax in the playoffs. I suppose you could say the Braves and Astros did have a big lead and we beat them, but the Braves smoked the Cubs in their first playoff series, no letdown.
September 21, 2006 at 10:45 am
Re 28: I remember reading something similar too, on THT.
September 21, 2006 at 11:09 am
With regard to moving the fences in: How far would they need to go? 5 ft? 20 ft? LaMar is correct that balls seem to hang in the air longer rather than dropping in for hits; I think that’s a bigger factor than home runs falling short of the fence. Would this show up in BABIP data? Is that available for home and away splits?
Maybe the ideal Petco team would have several speedy guys who play great defense and hit line drives or even ground balls to stay out of the marine layer (Juan Pierre and Willy Taveras types) mixed with a few guys who can hit the ball out of any park, like Branyan, Piazza, Glaus, Sexson, etc.
September 21, 2006 at 11:14 am
A couple years ago when Detroit was floundering, Neyer or the guys from BP (I forget now) did a study of line-drive, 2B’s/speedy defense guys, vs. guys who can crush the ball… The study concluded that less-power hurt more in a big park than it did in a small park…
September 21, 2006 at 11:21 am
Re 28, 29: The numbers could very well show that, and it may be true, but gut feel tells me different. I don’t know how far ahead the wildcard teams that won the WS were to the 2nd-place wildcard team , but it may interesting to look at.
Also, I really like the drama and the excitement of a close race. Of course, my hair is already a little thin on top, so pulling out is not an option for me.
September 21, 2006 at 11:36 am
30
Guys that get on base and guys who hit (big) home runs… That’s sounds like an ideal lineup for pretty much every team.
September 21, 2006 at 11:49 am
I didn’t say guys who can get on base, I said guys who hit line drives/ground balls. Guys who avoid the kind of hits that hang in the heavy marine layer. I wouldn’t call Taveras and Pierre guys who get on base
I do agree with your implied point though, just build a good team and they’ll win regardless.
If my calculations are correct there is a difference in Batting Average for Balls In Play for Padres pitchers:
Home: .275
Away: .284
I think it could be explained by the heavy air effect. Or a big park with good outfielders. Or Randy Jones BBQ slowing down the runners.
September 21, 2006 at 12:18 pm
I think you’ve got to give the park a few more years to see how it’s going to play, in light of the development that is ongoing. We’ve seen a rise in home runs this year, likely through a combination of better hitters and enclosing, at least the left field side, with condos.
Balls hit to left do not seem to be inhibited by the marine layer. Our players, however, don’t seem to be prone to hitting the ball in that direction, although Piazza and Cameron are improvements to what we’ve had in the previous two years. The ones that seem to die out are the ones to left center, all the way to right, just short of the porch. (Admittedly, this is the largest part of the park.)
Once the current and planned improvements in the outfield are completed, I think you can then fully evaluate the park/marine air factor. In the meantime, I don’t think you can really make any adjustments to the park, since the environment surrounding the park will be changing, at least for the next few years.
September 21, 2006 at 12:18 pm
Yeah I guess Pierre and Tavaras are not exactly on base monsters are they. I do tend to agree with your example though.
September 21, 2006 at 1:34 pm
Hey, don’t know if I missed this out in the midwest, but is Barfield hurt or just being benched? Curious.
September 21, 2006 at 2:11 pm
#37 - - As far as I know, it’s a bench thing. Boch trying to keep Walker and Branyan’s bats in the line-up.
September 21, 2006 at 2:23 pm
How about this guy as a utility/bench guy next year?
http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/.....rID=114909
September 21, 2006 at 2:30 pm
As far as I know offensive production is up this year…could it be that not having the two malcontents and inserting pull type hitters like Cameron into the line-up will be the start of a trend?
September 21, 2006 at 2:31 pm
Friar…please say you were tongue-in-cheek.
September 21, 2006 at 2:41 pm
#30 I’m thinking that a team like the Cardinals from the mid 80’s (Vince Coleman, willie McGee etc) would be the kind of lineup that would be successful at Petco…
September 21, 2006 at 3:01 pm
#39:
Wow. I didn’t realize that Gomez was even still in the majors, let alone playing well. As much as I hate to admit it, I always liked Gomez. I felt like he got as much out of his very modest ability as anyone. But he’s gotta be, what, 38? I’d rather have Aurilia back as a utility guy, although Gomez was always steady with the glove and Aurilia was not. And Gomez really doesn’t have any real offensive skills. He’s better than Vinny Castilla!
September 21, 2006 at 3:40 pm
42: The mid-80s Cards are often brought up. There’s lots of problems with it. They had 3 very good years, including a WS. They also finished 3rd 3x, 4th once, and 5th once. Many of those years their offense was at or near the bottom in runs scored. Their speed guys were heavily dependent on batting average. A lot of their success was due to the pitching staffs.
Last year we were +11 at home, with a less-fast team. This year, with anyone but a zombie at 3b for the first 3 months, we’d probably have done better.
September 21, 2006 at 3:48 pm
43: No shame in liking Gomez. He was key in 1996, along with Cammy’s, well, “surge.” Steady and most years he didn’t kill you at the plate.
I don’t care who our backup middle infielder is next year, as long as there’s only one of them.
September 21, 2006 at 4:52 pm
Absolutely hilarious conversation on the pre-game show right now about the meetings to decide who gets playoff cuts. Best line by flannery: “Craig Nettles only ever said two words in those meetings and the second one was always no.” (as in, someone would say Joe Schmoe should get 50K, to which Nettles would reply, “F**k No!”
September 21, 2006 at 4:56 pm
coronado:
Gomez has actually developed into a different player since he left here. He has a pretty nice stick now, and has great versatility. Blum won’t be back next year (Alderson said as much yesterday on the radio - he said he believes Blum’s play has made him more than just a sub). I think Gomez got kind of a tough break, as he was having some pretty serious knee problems his last year here. I remember watching him play a game against the Giants in Scottsdale in spring training. After the game, my brother and I were walking to our car and we saw Gomez being helped into his car by his wife. It was really sad.
September 21, 2006 at 5:20 pm
FF, I heard SA on XX yesterday and my impression was not that Blum would be gone, but that he had shown that he is more than just a utility player. I also understood SA to say that he didn’t view Blum as a full-time starter, either. It was more that he could fill in for a longer period of time, rather than a short term fix. If I read anything into it, it was that he may be in demand in the off-season by others, rather than our lack of interest.
September 21, 2006 at 6:22 pm
46
Actually it’s Graig Nettles, not Craig. Sorry, he was my favorite player — the reason I became a Pads fan.