I’m basing my assertion on the conclusions drawn from huge amounts of research done by the guys who wrote “The Book.” I’m also not saying that you should manage your bullpen purely on rest. If the lefty and righty pitchers are equal in talent, you want the lefty against a LHB and the righty against a RHB. However, if the RHP is significantly better, you want him against both the RHB and LHB. Things like GB% of both the hitter and pitcher come into play when making a decision like that, too.

I don’t have the numbers in front of me, so I’m not confident that Bochy made the (in)correct choice. What I am confident of is that 17 PA (or whatever it was) mean dick.

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Hoffman (R)/Embree(L)
Helton (L)

I haven’t looked at Helton’s avg. against the pitchers above, but I am assuming he has a higher avg. with more extra-base hits against Hoffman than Embree. How about a wager?

I’ll give you a choice, Richard:

You have a one run lead. The left-handed batter at the plate has a .632 avg. with 10 HRs in 70 at-bats against one righty pitcher in your bullpen and a .193 avg. with 0 HRs in 54 at-bats against the lefty in your bullpen. Who do you bring in? You say it just doesn’t matter, virtually. Like in cards, when a new hand is dealt, the odds of each combination are the same. And you justify your choice by saying, “No predictive value guys!”

While a very small sample size may prove your theory valid, there has to be some predictive value if you compare a guy who has gotten repeatedly bombed by a particular hitter or a guy who has repeatedly made a hitter look silly. If not, why not rotate relievers based purely on rest, not on situations and match ups?

Have you ever heard a pitcher say, “That guy just owns me!” If the pitcher had a choice of facing the guy that murders him against a guy he has dominated in a pressure situation, which batter would the pitcher choose? Why?

And are all managers just ignorant of the “no predictive value” theory when they put a right-handed line up in against a lefty pitcher? Or is this incorrect? Or maybe I am not understanding what you are implying. Perhaps some statistics or a link will set me straight.

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*I can’t understand why Bochy didn’t bring in Embree to face Helton leading off the 9th tonight? Was that statistic that said Helton was hitting .632 against Hoffman correct? Not the best decision to bring him in in a 1-run game, and Bochy’s a big lefty vs. lefty guy. It all worked out, though, so I guess I can’t complain.

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Did Cla get the win?

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RHP Jake Peavy, who broke a rib last season when celebrating on the night the Padres clinched the NL West title, was almost injured in another celebration on Monday night. After Josh Barfield hit a winning three-run homer in the ninth inning, Peavy got spiked on a toe on his left foot while celebrating with teammates at home plate. Peavy said Tuesday that he was fine the day after. … Padres manager Bruce Bochy gave 1B Adrian Gonzalez his second straight game off. Bochy said he wants to make sure that Gonzalez, who has played in 131 of San Diego’s 137 games, is fresh heading into the final weeks of the season.

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