IGD: Padres @ Dodgers (16 Sep 06)
Sat, Sep 16, 2006
by Geoff Young
first pitch: 7:10 p.m., PT
television: Channel 4SD
matchup: Woody Williams (8-5, 3.79) vs Chad Billingsley (5-3, 3.02)
previews: Padres.com | SI.com | ESPN
buy tickets
Fight the good fight every moment
Every minute every day
Fight the good fight every moment
It’s your only way
Dodgers take the opener at Chavez Ravine Friday night, 3-1. Greg Maddux battled with rare command issues early but got into a serious groove before long and held the Padres without a hit for 6 2/3 innings. The Padres, for their part, didn’t do themselves any favors by swinging early and often at Maddux’s offerings. Overall, a well-played game, as you would expect from two teams fighting for the division title with fewer than 20 games remaining.
It’s easy now to second-guess David Wells’ decision to go after J. D. Drew rather than Jeff Kent in the fourth, but given Wells’ track record against both hitters, it was the right move. The failure was not one of strategy but of execution. After walking Kent with two outs, Wells tried to get ahead of Drew and left a pitch out over the plate that the latter jumped on and hammered to the wall in center field. Unfortunately, Wells took a while to regroup and get himself out of the inning. By then, the Dodgers held a 2-0 lead that, thanks to Maddux, proved insurmountable.
Saturday it’s the veteran against the rookie. Woody Williams has been solid for the Padres all season, although he’s tailed off somewhat since the All-Star break. Few Dodgers hitters have enjoyed success against Williams over the years. A few notable exceptions include Kent (.340/.466/.681 in 47 AB), Nomar Garciaparra (.292/.320/.583 in 24 AB), and Kenny Lofton (.310/.333/.483 in 29 AB).
On the other side, Chad Billingsley has been very tough in the second half (1.87 ERA over 53 IP) despite spotty command (4.92 BB/9 during that same stretch, 5.60 on the seasons). The Padres would do well to exhibit a more patient approach at the plate against Billingsley than they did in the first game against Maddux. If they can force the youngster out early and get into the weak part of the LA bullpen (i.e., not the fireballing Jonathan Broxton or surgically precise Takashi Saito), the Pads could find themselves a little closer to first place by the end of the evening.
Should be a good one. Talk it up, and go Padres!
Picking up where last year's version left off, the Ducksnorts 2008 Baseball Annual provides in-depth analysis of and commentary on the San Diego Padres. Get your copy today.
September 16, 2006 at 2:54 pm
Kent has an OPS of 1.056 vs. LHP, and Drew one of .688 (vs. LHP). I would have to run a lot of numbers on the value of 1.056 of bases empty and .688 with a man at first. Anyone know of a site where you can run conditional probabilities, preferably ones that allow the OPS of the player to be included? That would answer it.
But I will go on, even without the data. Even with the delta’s in OPS, I still don’t like it. Even with that big of an OPS, on a ball in play, he still has 65% chance of getting an out and an 21% chance of getting a single. So there is 13% chance he would do better than what the walk represented.
This assumes that walking Kent was a real choice. Even incredible control pitchers, like Wells, can walk guys. So if he did not intend to walk him, that is one thing. But if it was intentional to throw balls out of the strike zone vs. challenging him, I don’t like it.
September 16, 2006 at 3:26 pm
I don’t think it was intentional at all, based on Wells’ comments:
“Ridiculous,” is what Wells, 43, called the walk. “I had just gotten out of one jam (on a double-play grounder) and I created another one. That walk came back to haunt me in a big way.”
At any rate, I’m very much against “semi-intentional” walks. Either walk the guy outright or go after him. I think purposely trying to avoid the strike zone can get a pitcher out of his rhythm.
Also, Wells had a sore right ankle which no doubt affected his control and led to his early exit.
September 16, 2006 at 6:12 pm
Good points, both. Anthony, I wasn’t aware of Wells’ ankle issue — that certainly must have been a contributing factor. It sure looked like he wanted nothing to do with Kent, and I thought it made sense at the time for a veteran to go after the guy he was more comfortable facing. Fernando used to do that all the time, but you may onto something about getting a pitcher out of rhythm. It might be one of those strategies that not everyone can employ with success. I’ll have to think about this some more.
September 16, 2006 at 6:23 pm
Love the Triumph reference GY.
Watched the Padres ‘98 tape (stopped watching before the very end, of course), in the hopes it would bring some luck.
I forgot how cheesey the music is for most of the tape. They really shouldn’t have dubbed in anything at all. The highlights alone would have been good enough.
Anyway, it was a good watch — got me pretty fired up. I forgot all about Vanderwal’s throw in the Braves series. It was awesome to see that again.
September 16, 2006 at 7:12 pm
not another strike zone like last night…
September 16, 2006 at 7:13 pm
Billingsley walks second batter of game, Giles. Need to make him throw strikes.
September 16, 2006 at 7:14 pm
That was walk #1000 of Giles’ career.
September 16, 2006 at 7:19 pm
boo-yah AG
September 16, 2006 at 7:19 pm
Sweet! A nice little lead for Woody to work with
September 16, 2006 at 7:19 pm
Good to see us take early advantage of Billingsley’s command issues.
September 16, 2006 at 7:21 pm
did AG just miss 3B?
September 16, 2006 at 7:22 pm
nevermind - double-checked - he got it
September 16, 2006 at 7:22 pm
Always nice to see the opposing pitching coach make a first-inning visit. Dodgers bullpen is already getting ready.
PF: I don’t think so.
September 16, 2006 at 7:24 pm
I love my DVR
September 16, 2006 at 7:24 pm
Billingsley is up to 32 pitches already.
September 16, 2006 at 7:24 pm
Best invention ever
September 16, 2006 at 7:25 pm
Ha, I looked at it on Tivo too, PF. DVRs = one of the best inventions ever
September 16, 2006 at 7:29 pm
Yeah, DVRs rock. You know what else rocks? Three runs in the first and 40 pitches from the Dodgers starter.
September 16, 2006 at 7:29 pm
It’s hard to complain about 3 runs but Blummer had a couple of pitches he should have crushed.
September 16, 2006 at 7:30 pm
Well speaking of the glory of DVRs, I’m pausing the game and going to spend some time w/ my family. I’ll watch the game a bit later - so, no more visiting the IGD for me… catch you all later.
September 16, 2006 at 7:31 pm
Wow, my first thought was, “What the hell is he doing swinging at that?”
September 16, 2006 at 7:31 pm
Damn. I was totally fooled on that swing, thought Furcal hit a routine fly ball.
September 16, 2006 at 7:32 pm
See ya, Peter; thanks for stopping by.
September 16, 2006 at 7:42 pm
Billingsley done after an inning. What do we know about Stults?
September 16, 2006 at 7:43 pm
Re: #19 Blummer only does well when the pads are up by 3 runs, he has Klesko syndrome.
September 16, 2006 at 7:43 pm
He was good in Mask
September 16, 2006 at 7:44 pm
The only problem is the lineup is stacked with lefties and Bochy won’t sub them out this early in the game.
September 16, 2006 at 7:44 pm
Re: 14, DVR is awsome I love the picture in picture for nights like tonight. Pads and USC
September 16, 2006 at 7:44 pm
I have the TV on mute…I was wondering why all of the sudden Billingsley was left handed
September 16, 2006 at 7:46 pm
So far the lefties are 2-for-2 off this guy.
September 16, 2006 at 7:48 pm
Not that I’m complaining, but where was that 3-2 pitch to Walker?
September 16, 2006 at 7:51 pm
Damn, that was a terrible at-bat from Piazza. So much for putting these guys away when we had the chance. I hope this doesn’t come back to bite us later.
September 16, 2006 at 7:54 pm
I was at my local Champs Sports today and they had Either jersey shirts. When it happened, I thought that was a great trade for the A’s, but that kid can really swing it.
September 16, 2006 at 8:03 pm
Sure can, but he can’t catch that bomb off the bat off Cameron!
September 16, 2006 at 8:03 pm
Oh boy, it looked like he got all of that one…I’m suprised it didn’t end up further up in the pavilion.
September 16, 2006 at 8:06 pm
Another quality at-bat by Branyan. Lefties are pounding the southpaw.
September 16, 2006 at 8:06 pm
I don’t know much about Stults…but I like what I see! What was that you were saying Geoff about getting into the sucky part of the LA bullpen…
September 16, 2006 at 8:08 pm
OT - Hey GY are you a Cursive fan?
September 16, 2006 at 8:12 pm
Great adjustment by Roberts to drive in the sixth run. We should have about 9 or 10 runs by now, but this is good. Dodgers are already on their third pitcher of the night.
September 16, 2006 at 8:14 pm
Steve, I recognize the name but I’m not familiar with their work.
September 16, 2006 at 8:15 pm
You may like them (I think, based it upon what I’ve seen of your tastes so far)
September 16, 2006 at 8:17 pm
Let the rout begin!
September 16, 2006 at 8:17 pm
Wow, this is fun.
September 16, 2006 at 8:17 pm
That Walker pickup looks better and better every day!
September 16, 2006 at 8:21 pm
OMG, so does the Gonzo pickup. Unreal. So, when do you get Piazza out of this one?
September 16, 2006 at 8:21 pm
wow this is getting out of hand… In a good way!
September 16, 2006 at 8:21 pm
This is getting ridiculous… how many runs is that with 2 outs? I hope we get 20 tonight.
September 16, 2006 at 8:22 pm
I say pull him now, unless he still wants to beat down on his former team.
September 16, 2006 at 8:22 pm
Hehehe, I think Cameron really wanted to get on the HR train there.
September 16, 2006 at 8:24 pm
This might be a good game for P Mac to make his debut at 3B
September 16, 2006 at 8:26 pm
Our lefties against their lefties tonight:
Roberts: 2-for-2
Giles: 2-for-2, 2 2B
Walker: 1-for-1, HR, BB
Branyan: 1-for-1, 2B
Gonzalez: 1-for-1, HR
That’s 1.000/1.000/2.286 in 8 PA.
September 16, 2006 at 8:26 pm
May I also request a litte Cust action as well?
September 16, 2006 at 8:27 pm
#41: Thanks for the tip; I’ll be sure to check ‘em out.
September 16, 2006 at 8:28 pm
This might be a good game for me to make my 3B debut.
September 16, 2006 at 8:33 pm
I like the idea of giving P-Mac a little time at third. (Sorry, Kevin, you’ll have to wait your turn.)
September 16, 2006 at 8:35 pm
Ok, here’s a little OT Blowout Fodder: I’ll be at the Q tomorrow. What do you guys use (if anything) to check scores on your phone? I have mlb.com on there, but didn’t know if there was anything better…
September 16, 2006 at 8:35 pm
It would be nice if Woody can go deep in the game and keep the bullpen fresh. He’s been a little shakey so far but he’s getting it done.
September 16, 2006 at 8:37 pm
Williams had so much time between innings. I see him going five or six for the decision.
September 16, 2006 at 8:42 pm
I say leave Woody in until the 90 pitch mark or so…want the bully rested but also want Woody ready for his next start.
Peter is going to have fun watching this later.
September 16, 2006 at 8:43 pm
The bullpin is fine, they can stick sweeny, or Mikey T in there for 3 innings.
September 16, 2006 at 8:45 pm
I think time elapsed from the start of warming up is a better guideline than pitch counts. Bert Blyleven used to say that after two and half hours, he was done. It didn’t matter how many pitches he had thrown. So the time between innings for Williams has an effect on him.
September 16, 2006 at 8:48 pm
That makes a lot of sense, especially for an older pitcher.
September 16, 2006 at 9:01 pm
I hope the pads give Pmack, Cust and Knott a chance to play a little tonight, see how they do.
September 16, 2006 at 9:02 pm
Boch should get everyone into the game after this inning. Certainly Piazza should be done for the night.
September 16, 2006 at 9:09 pm
Well, if he’s going to do it, after six innings, would be a good time.
September 16, 2006 at 9:13 pm
Looks like Sweeney for the seventh.
September 16, 2006 at 9:33 pm
Manny Alexander (2B), Mark Bellhorn (3B), Jack Cust (LF), Paul McAnulty (1B), and Termell Sledge (RF) get in there!!
September 16, 2006 at 9:46 pm
You can tell it’s a blowout when Mud and Steve spot Tom Hanks in the crowd and start talking about “Bosom Buddies.”
September 16, 2006 at 9:47 pm
Save opportunity.
September 16, 2006 at 9:53 pm
Even in an 11-2 game, Bellhorn manages to be useless.
September 16, 2006 at 10:00 pm
That’s your ballgame. Save #2 for Sweeney. Great win. Let’s get two more of those.
September 17, 2006 at 7:03 am
I typically watch via Tivo and watch later, so sad you all have to wait for my profound thoughts. Man, that was fun. My Tivo was tuned to the wrong channel for the first inning, so picked it up just a Walker walked in the second, just in time to see Piazza flail. I was thinking, “That could be a turning point.” Wrong. I am just glad they did not start Hendrickson. Amazing we scored 11 when we get blanked for four innings (with 8 Ks).
Woody just cruising; out under 90 pitches, fresh for the next start.
This also marked third time in the last six games we have scored in double figures (blow vs. Giants, Reds and now this). We are 1-1 in the next game after that.
Here’s to hoping the good CY shows up and the Derek Lowe that allowed Chicago to rally last week shows up. Not to jinx it, but I feel our best pitching match up of the series is the last game, so a win here would put a ton of pressure on Penny.
September 17, 2006 at 7:29 am
The following post will most likely lead to Walker going 0-fer, and Betemit taking Linebrink out to go ahead, but, as someone who was livid about not pursuing Betemit:
With new teams:
Walker: 98 AB, .296/.381/.439 (819 OPS)
Betemit: 136 AB, .250/.297/.471 (768 OPS)
Aug + Sep:
Linebrink: 16.2 IP, 18H, 6ER, 7R, 0HR, 3BB, 16K, 3.33 ERA
Linebrink’s numbers are solid, so-so by SD standards. I was looking for OPS allowed (not that easy), because while Linebrink has given up hits, watching him so many look like squibs, few solid shots. 0 HR’s is an indication of that.
So, Sandy and co can keep their jobs for a few more games before I become irrate over something new, or, perhaps, change my mind back as Betemit hits 10 HR’s over the next week.
September 17, 2006 at 9:20 am
Thanks, Jay, for your thoughts. They were worth the wait. And that is very magnanimous of you to alow the front office to remain as is.
For now…
September 17, 2006 at 10:55 am
Terrific article about Hoffman from Sun-Sentinel in Florida.
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sp.....ts-marlins
Looks like he figured out what we already knew.