Friday Links (22 Sep 06)
Fri, Sep 22, 2006
by Geoff Young
This will be brief, as I’m real short on time at the moment:
- The Game of the Century? (Hardball Times). Yes, this was tough to take but I guarantee you’ll never forget it. Dave Studeman at the Hardball Times charts the win probability play by play, with commentary from readers here at Ducksnorts and over at Dodger Thoughts. Very cool. This comment, incidentally, might be the funniest I’ve seen all year, mainly because I could totally see it happening.
- A First! An In-Game Post From Petco (San Diego Spotlight). Rich Campbell gives a firsthand account of Thursday night’s victory over Arizona from the ballpark. Sweet!
- Notes From BA’s AZL Chat (Padres RunDown). Peter Friberg, who is busy at work on his own Padres prospect list, shares some nice comments that Baseball America’s John Manuel made about Cedric Hunter. The names he compares Hunter to are pretty impressive.
- Prospect Retro: Gary Matthews Jr. (Minor League Ball). John Sickels takes a look back at former Padres prospect Matthews, who has found a home (and how!) in Texas.
- Francisco Liriano—Warning signs? (Baseball Think Factory). Frame-by-frame visual analysis of Liriano’s pitching mechanics. Fascinating. I like numbers as much as the next guy, but we need more of this kind of stuff.
Happy Friday, folks. Go Padres!
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September 22, 2006 at 7:24 am
That Liriano thing was cool! Thanks for sharing.
I am going to see the Pads tonight…I tried to bring myself to giving away the duckets, but I love Baseball too much!
So before the game, I will be sacrificing a chicken to put a hex on the Phils and Dodgers…Anyone know if I need to wring its neck or chop of its head for the vodoo to work properly? And, as a follow-up, would eating a bucket of KFC work just as well?
September 22, 2006 at 7:43 am
Not sure about the chicken, but this guy may know:
http://www.dynamicdesignintl.c.....doctor.jpg
Man, its getting real close in the standings. One small error by the dawgs, phils or pads could cost the team the season. I liked it better in 98 when we clinched on sept 16 or something crazy.
So its Pads v Pit @ home, Phils v Fish @ Fish, and Dawgs v Snakes @ LA. If it ended now, Pads would face the Cardinals and Dawgs, the Mets. I think that is the way we want it. Cards are not nearly the team there were last year. In fact, Pads and Cards have nearly the same record (pads 80-72, Cards 80-71). The Mets are 92-60, yikes.
If would really help if the Fish would beat the Phils twice, but not sweep. That is a big series for both those teams.
And the Pads have to keep winning series.
September 22, 2006 at 7:45 am
Kinda like an inexperienced person w/ a gun, using it when you don’t know how could result in a foot with a hole in it. I’d just go w/ the bucket of KFC, you don’t to accidentally curse yourself…
BTW Geoff, that comment was hysterical.
September 22, 2006 at 7:46 am
We need to root for the Card’s to lose a few more so “when” we win the division, we get home field advantage against the redbirds.
September 22, 2006 at 7:49 am
Could the Padres and Dawgs tie for the NL West? And would there be a playoff, and the loser would go to the WC, right? Who would we pitch in the game. Not Peavy, he gets too amped. Maybe Woody?
September 22, 2006 at 7:52 am
PF4L RE: #4 pads are better on the road this year then at home.
September 22, 2006 at 7:56 am
True Steve, but they have been pretty good at home lately, and in the playoffs, it is a totally different story, you want your home fans cheering for you more than ever. I would take home field advantage EVERY time.
September 22, 2006 at 7:57 am
PM, re: #5, the loseer would get the WC only if Philly’s record is worse, otherwise the loser would go home.
September 22, 2006 at 7:58 am
Am I crazy for thinking that I would rather see the Mets? Carpenter is heating up for the Redbirds, they still have guys that can flat out mash, and they have a little better overall pitching situation.
The Mets have a 40+ year old guy as the ace…and he is pedestrian. Pedro’s arm is going to fall off…Their bully is nowhere near as strong as they were earlier in the season.
The biggest fear of the Mets I have is that 40+ year old man is a lefty and so is their closer. So while Glavine and Wagner are not as scary as they used to be, that may neutralize our 1B, LF, RF, and an array of bench players.
September 22, 2006 at 8:04 am
By the way Steve, that gap is now down to 4 games (bertter on the road than home). That gap has gotten markedly smaller lately, which gives me more reason to want to be “home for the holidays”
September 22, 2006 at 8:06 am
To expand on #8, if the Padres & Dodgers tie and Philly is out of the WC race, then there is no 1-game playoff Padres are NL West champs, Dodgers WC reps, if they tie but Philly moved ahead of both to take WC, then they DO play to determine NL West champion.
September 22, 2006 at 8:15 am
Lots o’ bad karma to overcome tonight, so maybe Coronado Mike’s on to something:
1) it’s a series opener, notoriously tough for our boys, and we would be trying to win a series opener for the second time in a row
2) we’re at 8 over .500, again, and each time (is it 3 or 4 times now) we’ve been there we’ve lost.
All that said, I like (not love) our pitching matchup…CY makes me nervous at home…what’s the weather like in SD today/tonight? Talk to me about heavy marine layers, we don’t get that much here in the plains…
September 22, 2006 at 8:15 am
We are 2-5 vs the Mets this year (0-3 @ NY, 2-1 @ home), Yikes!
We are 2-1 vs StL (all @ home) with 4 to play in StL starting next Monday. Assuming we win the division, it looks like the series in StL could play a big part in deciding home field advantage for the NLDS.
September 22, 2006 at 8:28 am
I was at the game last night, lucky enough to have Section 104, row 12 seats. Rich is right. Cla’s stuff is NASTY from that perspective. His delivery puts him right on top of the hitter at the release point from that odd angle of his. The Dbacks hitters he faced looked clueless.
There was a perceptible change in Scotty after the bullet to Manny. He looked like he stood taller and was more confident. Good for his psyche to have a play made behind him instead of a “seeing eye” grounder.
September 22, 2006 at 8:34 am
Check that, we have 3 to play in StL and 4 in AZ
September 22, 2006 at 8:34 am
#13
I believe it is 3 at St. Louis followed by 4 at Arizona.
September 22, 2006 at 8:37 am
LaMar, I was there too, did you see Piazza drop a few of Cla’s first warmup pitches, then shoo Blum & Barfield away from behind 2nd base? Apparently the batters aren’t the only ones that have difficulty picking his stuff up.
September 22, 2006 at 8:38 am
Thanks Ranger, looks like we both saw that at the same time.
September 22, 2006 at 8:44 am
It’s actually windy as all hell downtown this morning! I rode my bike down the hill to work today and could barely see because the wind was making my eyes water so bad. I don’t know if that will carry through the day but it’s something to remember. PETCO could be a launching pad tonight!
September 22, 2006 at 8:47 am
#17. When I first saw Cla waming up, I thought, “How does anybody hit him?” I usually sit up in 213. Cla’s stuff looks good from up there, but sitting behind home plate, it was amazing. I saw those drops by Piazza, but thought, “Doesn’t matter if a ball gets behind him during the inning. There isn’t going to be anybody on base, anyway.”
September 22, 2006 at 8:56 am
Speaking of Cla’s warmups, has anyone ever seen another pitcher take the first couple of tosses from well in front of the mound? I’ve noticed him do that a few times this year, so I don’t think it’s a fluke. First time, I’m thinking, “Dude you only get eight of those — don’t blow your first two on soft tosses from 50 feet.”
Obviously he knows a little more about pitching than I do.
September 22, 2006 at 8:56 am
Dodgers finish with 3 at home vs AZ, 3 in Col and 3 in SF.
Col and SF are 41-34 and 42-33 at home and LA is 33-42 on the road. I like that they play 3 at altitude before the last 2 at SF who would love to knock them out of anything.
LA has to win every series (6-3) in order to force SD to go 7-3 to win it outright.
September 22, 2006 at 8:57 am
Bochy’s use of Meredith this season has been pretty hard to critique. Meredith has stranded 28 out of 35 inherited runners, a great result, and that is when Bochy looks to use him. The only concern I would have would be potential overuse because he gets quite a few 1+ appearances. But he’s young and that sidearm motion is more “natural”, right?
September 22, 2006 at 8:58 am
It’s Santa Ana time again - supposed to be quite windy throughout all of SoCal today and tonight. Does anyone know what Santa Ana winds do to Petco?
September 22, 2006 at 9:02 am
Heavy Marine layer this morning in RB, which means real thick at the coast and Downtown. I’m predicting some afternoon clearing but then a return of the thick stuff by game time or there abouts. Meaning heavy marine air dragging fly balls down. This is good for CY. Weather conditions favor line drives and seeing eye grounders.
September 22, 2006 at 9:11 am
I hope X doesn’t give it to us.
September 22, 2006 at 9:16 am
Yes, a santa ana (dry wind from the East which pushes the marine layer out to sea) is on the way sometime tonight(predcited after 9 pm), perhaps after the game. So I predict cloudy conditions at game time. The SAs will be a factor for sat and sun, bringing dry air, meaning the ball will travel further. Actaully we are lucky to have CY, a flyball pitcher going tonight.
September 22, 2006 at 9:17 am
Here“> is today’s forecast from weatherunderground.com.
September 22, 2006 at 9:19 am
Looks like I “biffed” the href link, sorry. Go to weatherunderground.com and search for zip code 92101 to see what I tried to post.
September 22, 2006 at 9:29 am
#23: Yeah, I share your concern about Cla’s workload. There’s a theory that sinkerballers need more work because if they’re too fresh they pick up velocity at the expense movement. I may be mistaken, but I think Steve Reed used to talk about that.
#26: LOL. I will be wearing a Nady shirt to the game tonight. It says Padres on the front, so I should be okay.
September 22, 2006 at 9:52 am
Love the fact that we got our local Ducksnorts Weather men…very useful!! Coronado is cool and clowdy…slight breeze coming from the South…
I have been wondering when Cla will blow up…his work load in September has been big…he pitched 15 innings in August and 14.1 in July…he is already at 14.2 in September with 10 games to go…
I have heard the tired arm theory on sinkerballer’s…The Big Nose BBQ man on 1090 talks about it all the time…but there has to be a point of diminishing returns. 1 Big Mac tastes great…2 is okay…but by the time I finish 6, I ain’t enjoying the 2 all beef patties special sauce lettuce cheese pickles onions on a sesame seed bun…
September 22, 2006 at 10:24 am
GY … thanks for the links … esp the one to the Liriano analysis.
Rich … Way to WiFi! I hope that spurs others to WiFi some IPIGD! (In Petco In Game Discussion)
September 22, 2006 at 10:31 am
This was reported in Ben Maller’s column: “Boston Herald spies in the skyboxes say that Red Sox CEO Larry Lucchino isn’t exactly all broken up over the breakdown of the Sox this season. Word is, the Sox czar, who lost a high-profile power struggle with ex-underling Theo Epstein this past winter, is privately telling pals ‘The little Emperor has no clothes.’”
Ouch!
September 22, 2006 at 10:40 am
I’d like to add, I’d also rather see the Mets in a short series because the Mets could have trouble in a short series. That being said, I know someone who already has tickets for Game 5 of the NLDS and I’ve told him no matter who they play it could be necessary because I think the NLDS will be the place the Mets will get a run for their money.
September 22, 2006 at 10:50 am
Short series are more about luck
Long series are more about skill…
I don’t know… both teams (heck all 5 if we include the 3 “maybes:” SD, LA, & Philly) are vulnerable in their own way.
Unless we overtake St. Louis, we’ll be on the road either way… St. Louis is facing a motivated Houston (trying to get back into the Wild Card), so who knows.
September 22, 2006 at 10:52 am
USA Today has a nice Trevor Article online today…
http://www.usatoday.com/sports.....iego_x.htm
September 22, 2006 at 10:53 am
there’s a good BP article today about this weekend and the playoff chase.
http://www.baseballprospectus......cleid=5548
Prospectus Matchups
Five Teams for Four Spots
by Jim Baker
September 22, 2006 at 10:53 am
hey all,
according to Baseball Prospectus today, Josh Barfield is the 7th best second baseman in the NL (the stat they use is VORP). Pretty good considering he was a big question mark going into the season.
September 22, 2006 at 10:55 am
I would much rather see the Mets in a championship series. After what Pedro was pushing over the plate last night (fastball topping out at 86)I want that guy on short rest. I think getting Glavine and Pedro on short rest would help us more then catching them right out of the gate. I don’t know I could be wrong but I just kinda hoping their pitching staff can get beat up a little before we face them. With the Padres bats being so streaky and just overall unpredictable I’ll take all the help we can get. First things first though, get into the Playoffs then worry about getting through the first series and then worry about a possible Mets matchup.
September 22, 2006 at 11:00 am
Anyone else subscribe to BA? They’re doing their Prioneer League top prospect breakdown w/ a chat today at noon… Anyway, while we know any prospect who plays for either LA team automatically gets a grade-boost, this is shocking…
#2 prospect: Josh Bell, 3B, Dodgers
AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
250 45 77 17 3 12 53 11 90 4 2 .308 .367 .544
Dude walked 11 times and struck out 90 and they’re rating him that high? I’m kind of a hybrid guy, I’ll take a guy with moderate numbers and impressive tools early, but 90 SO? That’s a recipe for disaster no matter how you try to spin it…
September 22, 2006 at 11:01 am
re: 38: Nice!
September 22, 2006 at 11:13 am
Re 30: I just read that Cla has already surpassed 90 innings total this year between all levels - Pawtucket/Portland/Padres. This is substantially more innings than he has pitched any year during college or thereafter. Only 1 guy in the majors, Scott Proctor, has thrown more than 90 relief innings so far this year.
he Padres are definitely in the danger zone on him, and I hope they aren’t setting him up for arm issues.
September 22, 2006 at 11:22 am
re: 36
That’s the AP game story, which is on every sports site.
September 22, 2006 at 11:23 am
I think they’re “auditioning” Cla for Linebrink’s 8th inning spot next year as well as Trevor’s closer spot in ‘08 on after save No. 500 (whichever comes first).
September 22, 2006 at 11:24 am
I know it would be WAY cool to have Hoffy break the record at home, but I’m going on record as hoping it DOES NOT happen in this three game set. Hoffy’s pitched in 4 of our last 5 games. He needs a breather… Let’s get a couple blow-out wins and let him tie the record on Sunday.
September 22, 2006 at 11:25 am
re: 38
Barfield is the fifth-best second baseman in the NL, according to Win Shares, which includes fielding. He has been an above average fielder this season on the best fielding team in the league.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/t.....mit=Submit
September 22, 2006 at 11:28 am
44… I don’t think so, they still have Linebrink under contract (cheaply) for 07. So unless they package Scotty for a 3B (Adrain Beltre?) I still see a Meredith/Linebrink/Hoffy trifecta…
September 22, 2006 at 11:39 am
This is a question and comment from Jerry Crasnick’s chat at ESPN:
Chris (Delaware): Jerry - Of the Phillies, Padres and Dodgers, which two teams make the playoffs in your opinion?
I think the Padres will win the West (although they still have to go to St. Louis next week) and the Phillies will take the wild card. Kent and Garciaparra are banged up, and San Diego’s pitching is better than the Dodgers’. I just don’t think Los Angeles has enough left in the tank.
September 22, 2006 at 11:41 am
While Crasnick’s comments make perfect sense, he is a pro-Padres guy. He must live in the area, because he does a lot of Padres stories on ESPN.com.
September 22, 2006 at 11:42 am
Didn’t Cras used to write for the UT?
September 22, 2006 at 11:43 am
Cla threw 98 innings in 2004, so this season isn’t exactly unprecedented. He threw just under 70 last year, but that was related to being called up to Boston and not getting a chance to throw.
September 22, 2006 at 11:56 am
Cla started 2 of the games he threw in 2004 (for VCU), although if he relieved every game, he probably would have been at the 85-88 inning level total.
The way Bochy is using him, he is looking at 100 innings this year “when” the Padres make the playoffs.
September 22, 2006 at 12:05 pm
Nice article about Oliver Perez’ recent success (mechanics) over at Baseball Think Factory…
http://www.baseballthinkfactor.....ver_perez/
September 22, 2006 at 12:12 pm
50:
You may be thinking of Olney.
I’m pretty sure Crasnick used to be with the Bergen-Record in NJ.
September 22, 2006 at 12:15 pm
#40: I thought they traded Reggie Abercrombie.
September 22, 2006 at 12:49 pm
Last night, BBTN’s Hershisher and Kurkijan both said they thought the Pads would win the West.
September 22, 2006 at 12:53 pm
Pads moved up to #6 on the Worldwide Leader’s power rankings.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/mlb/p.....d=tab3pos2
September 22, 2006 at 1:15 pm
You guys may be thinking of Tom Krasovic. He writes for the UT and MLB for the Padres
September 22, 2006 at 1:37 pm
RE 37: Subscription wall, please summarize the remaining part of th article.
September 22, 2006 at 2:03 pm
re: 57
I like it, but how is it possible that a team with 91 wins already is ranked behind us!?!?!
September 22, 2006 at 2:13 pm
Cla Meredith has thrown 603 pitches in his 45 MLB innings - 13.4 avg.
Assuming he averaged the same amount of pitches per inning in the minors, we can estimate he has thrown a total of 1219 pitches in his 91 innings of work. Comparatively, Scott Linebrink as thrown just 50 fewer pitches in almost 20 fewer innings (avg. 16.5 pitches per inning.)
September 22, 2006 at 2:15 pm
Point being, I don’t think he’s particularly overworked. He’s had a lot of 5 pitch innings or two pitch double plays (2/3 inning).
September 22, 2006 at 3:32 pm
just a quote from the transaction analysis from BP on Klesko’s activation from the 60day DL:
“If he (Klesko) shows up on their postseason roster ahead of somebody like Terrmel Sledge, it’ll be a mistake.”
September 22, 2006 at 3:58 pm
I am very superstitious when it comes to my teams, so all this talk of who we want in the playoffs is making me nervous. Not that slightly over-confident fans means the actual Padres players and managers are going to look past a pretty strong playing Pittsburgh team, but I am focused just on these games. Who we get in the playoffs feels insignificant to getting in the playoffs. This team has never, ever, ever made it the playoffs two years in a row. That would huge especially with the re-tooling that had to go on. And a reasonably tough division.
This blog rocks, and if people want to talk about the playoffs, have at it. But it just makes me squirm a bit.
So let’s get focused on the Bucs and win a game tonight.
September 22, 2006 at 5:12 pm
Ryan Howard just locked up the MVP with a 3-run bomb to put the Phils up 4-0 in the 3rd. He also ties the Phils HR record with # 58.
September 22, 2006 at 5:25 pm
Jay:
I’m with you there. I overheard a Mets fan at work talking about what he was going to do with his tickets “if the Mets win the World Series.”
WOW. Talk about putting the whammy on your team!
September 22, 2006 at 5:40 pm
Do you think Howard tying the Philly HR mark will be the lead story on Sportscenter, a la Ortiz in Boston?
September 22, 2006 at 6:01 pm
63: agree COMPLETELY!
September 30, 2006 at 1:31 pm
What is that all about?